Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part LI

[GoAwayPanarin]

If that face off is in my own end with 40 seconds left and I’m protecting a one goal lead, I’ll write that check.

In the absolute best case, theres still a 40% chance that your guy will lose that draw.

I think I'd rather spend my money elsewhere, like on a player who can contribute in other ways so that face off with 40 seconds left comes in a situation where the lead is more than just 1.

 

[bl02]

His chronic knee injuries are very disconcerting.

Hasn’t he had two acl injuries? Plus we’ve had this debate on the main board sharks fans want a boatload for him. I would pass

 

[Savant]

In the absolute best case, theres still a 40% chance that your guy will lose that draw.

I think I'd rather spend my money elsewhere, like on a player who can contribute in other ways so that face off with 40 seconds left comes in a situation where the lead is more than just 1.

Why can’t the faceoff guy contribute in other ways?

 

[MrPodz]

Rangers had a flat start to the playoffs bc theyre so dang young, so they are thrown in unready and by game 3 they actually looked decent. Basically, as this team matures, yes we need a few things. One- a guy with cup experience. Look at pavelski with the stars rn. He was in the finals though. I want that for our bottom six and then for 2c, i honestly just want cirelli or danault. We need q defensive anchor and that was what was missing. The olines are very potent, but they just havent grown into experienced forwards yet. Looking at the d, brodin is my dream, him and troubs would be lethal and would let lindgren and fox run amok. Factor in nils coming and you have a beautiful situation. I dont want strome. He's a complementary, which is fine, but he cant defend. He started playing wifh some aggression, and he is actually a really nice guy, but i want a confident and stable center. Panarin scored so many points this season because he had mika on another line. They couldnt matchup against aho because they didnt have that grinder/energy line. This team will gtow but i have the feeling gorton wants more balance in his lineup.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Now the analytics freaks are proclaiming an astounding new theory in hockey. Puck placement dump ins are the new thing, which is exactly the thing everyone did before people started with the analytics to begin with, it still works, no matter how many nerds say it doesnt, but but but puck possesion.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

It needs to be said, once again:

Face-offs only matter in single game sample sizes, and even then it's still not specific enough to matter. If you're looking at the season/career face-off statistics...don't bother because it's not informational unless it's an incredible outlier.

*cue the 2015 Caps Game 7 OT responses*

If I'm not mistaken, they actually lost that faceoff but were able to get it back.

 

[egelband]

WORLD AS WE KNOW IT IS ENDING IN 2022. We need to gooooooooo for it...

Fair point.

 

[Thirty One]

If I'm not mistaken, they actually lost that faceoff but were able to get it back.

Yeah it definitely wasn’t a center win.

 

[Barnaby]

I have to believe there are a few bottom 6 centers out there who are above average on a draw and can PK that aren’t grossly overpaid on term and/or AAV. I’m not going to pour over face off statistics and free agent lists after 1am, but I can’t believe that player is a white whale.

 

[Barnaby]

In the absolute best case, theres still a 40% chance that your guy will lose that draw.

I think I'd rather spend my money elsewhere, like on a player who can contribute in other ways so that face off with 40 seconds left comes in a situation where the lead is more than just 1.

Eh, I wouldn’t say it’s a glaring hole but it’s not without value either.

 

[n8]

You criticize me to no end yesterday about not providing enough substance behind my suggestions/ideas and then you throw this out there....

I mean the replies by others already does all the talking for me. But you really shouldve spent more time providing hard data to back this up since that’s what you expect of others.

random thought with no stance. I put it out there to see what other people's opinions are since I hadn't seen any Athanisiou since he went to EDM. I'm glad I asked.
I asked for opinions and I'm not going to complain about what people wrote. You agree with all the other posters and that's fine. But about criticizing me for content? I thought you moved on. Don't lump my simple ask of "what do you think of..." with your "here is a trade to punch a hole in our roster that we will fix through improbably drafting Lundell who is at least a 80% chance of being at least a year out. oh and we need 2 other trades to make this feasible." I'm happy to throw petty forum politics aside. Like if you want to make a case for Monahan <-> Strome, happy to discuss. Lindholm has been playing more wing so if you are dropping Strome, Lindholm doesn't necessarily fix the whole at center you'd create. If you were just assuming he'd take over for Strome, well then we can discuss why he plays better at wing than center.

 

[n8]

The issue is the center who is good at faceoffs will likely come at a cost disproportional to the value his brings over the first one.

I think the point we can agree on (I hope) is that you want to find a good center who just happens to be good at faceoffs rather than a player who is good at faceoffs and happens to be a center.

 

[n8]

I think it was reported or at least heavily rumored that Edmonton isn't even going to qualify Athanisiou, so he'll be a UFA whenever free agency starts

oh, that's interesting.

What? Why?

new question. if he's not qualified, what about signing him? Here's the thing. I know what I like about him. I'm less knowledgeable as to what people don't like about him. As far as trade value, yes - I don't have a good idea what his market rate is. He fetched quite a bit when traded but based on George, it sounds like he really stunk it up in EDM. You'd think Ken Holland knew better. If they aren't qualifying him, then the idea of a trade is laughable.

Pros:
1 year removed from 30 goals
Kreider-esque speed
Good soft hands at speed
Goes to the net and scores goals from in tight
Good on the boards, outworks opponents for the puck (although that was more 2018-19)
Has a filthy one timer from the right side
Knows how to get open to use that shot
only 26
Managed his accomplishments on a bad Detroit team
He had a pretty good game in the playoffs generating a lot of chances.

Cons?
a bit of a prima donna?
I didn't dig into his stats too deeply but it's possible he score more on weaker teams and doesn't do as well against the good teams? But he wouldn't have to play that role with us so maybe he can turn it around here. In EDM, he was really underutilized, played on wing instead of his natural center position. It's possible and probable he wasn't earning his ice time but learning a new system can be tough.

 

[Ola]

Now the analytics freaks are proclaiming an astounding new theory in hockey. Puck placement dump ins are the new thing, which is exactly the thing everyone did before people started with the analytics to begin with, it still works, no matter how many nerds say it doesnt, but but but puck possesion.

That awsome, has this been observed in the POs or in general during the season?

The thing is — this is exactly how the NHL and hockey works. I don’t for a second buy that the possession wave was default. Try relying really heavily on puck placement dumpins around 5 years after the lockout against NJD and you won’t win many games because they could counter it. You need to bring back enough men to force the dump in and have a player drop deep to get a head-start on the forecheckers.

But the thing is, 10-15 years ago you had a very limited number of Ds in this league smaller than 6’0.

Hockey is unique because execution is so hard. Execution is so hard because the game is so fast. It’s organized chaos, and you cannot just execute a game-plan new to a team by chalking it up. Since execution is so hard, the changes in the game can be drastic. The difference today compared to 5-10 years ago is that (a) those teams were much more prepared to face heavy forecheck, there were a ton of lines in the league compareable to NYIs 4th, now you have 1, just for example, and (b) teams were more solid defensively and you did not score many goals just by coming into possession of pucks in the corners. Today’s Ds in average are a lot more skilled at moving the puck and joining the attack, and a lot less skilled at protecting their net in plain English.

This is why it’s so tremendously important that management in hockey constantly thrives to be ahead of the curve and not behind it, that they are inventive and not get locked into philosophies if they are proven ineffective. History shows that this is really hard. There are so many coaches, organizations from top to bottom, that have failed miserably at adepting.

 

[egelband]

Source?

@BBKers is vetted.

 

[Ola]

@BBKers is vetted.

Yup, and there are many experts on volcano's on Iceland. My bet is that one of them is about to pop and that it is kept quite. Anyone got a boat with some room to spare?

 

[usekakkorightquinn]

Because he's not that good. One, he's not a center because he can't win faceoffs. Two, he's a role player who will try to get 4 to 5 million which any team with a clue won't pay him.

 

[Irishguy42]

If I'm not mistaken, they actually lost that faceoff but were able to get it back.

You're right. Fehr basically had it by boxing out Stepan but Fast came in and poked it away to Yandle.

 

[GAGLine]

not really. it goes without saying that any scenario that you trade for him or another center should imply that strome is gone. you would be replacing strome's cap hit for a better player. and he is only signed for 2 years so there is no long term concerns if he doesn't work out.

also not sure how making a trade if a guy is available at the right price is 'weaponizing cap space'. we wouldn't be taking a bad contract back to gain an asset.

Sorry, I quoted the wrong post. I meant to quote this post:

I get what you're saying, but it all comes down to what comes back with Raanta. In my case, I wouldn't be acquiring him to acquire him, I'd be doing it for whatever came with. The expansion problem can be solved by signing a journeyman to the AHL/ECHL.

If we're talking about a deal just for Raanta, then I'm not on board – unless a worse contract is going the other way, of course.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

That awsome, has this been observed in the POs or in general during the season?

The thing is — this is exactly how the NHL and hockey works. I don’t for a second buy that the possession wave was default. Try relying really heavily on puck placement dumpins around 5 years after the lockout against NJD and you won’t win many games because they could counter it. You need to bring back enough men to force the dump in and have a player drop deep to get a head-start on the forecheckers.

But the thing is, 10-15 years ago you had a very limited number of Ds in this league smaller than 6’0.

Hockey is unique because execution is so hard. Execution is so hard because the game is so fast. It’s organized chaos, and you cannot just execute a game-plan new to a team by chalking it up. Since execution is so hard, the changes in the game can be drastic. The difference today compared to 5-10 years ago is that (a) those teams were much more prepared to face heavy forecheck, there were a ton of lines in the league compareable to NYIs 4th, now you have 1, just for example, and (b) teams were more solid defensively and you did not score many goals just by coming into possession of pucks in the corners. Today’s Ds in average are a lot more skilled at moving the puck and joining the attack, and a lot less skilled at protecting their net in plain English.

This is why it’s so tremendously important that management in hockey constantly thrives to be ahead of the curve and not behind it, that they are inventive and not get locked into philosophies if they are proven ineffective. History shows that this is really hard. There are so many coaches, organizations from top to bottom, that have failed miserably at adepting.

All thats great but the most of the cup winners the last number of years used the dump and heavy hockey to win, nothing has really changed, and i don't think you can money ball your way to a cup championship unless you understand that regular season and playoffs are two totally different games. L.A, Boston, Washington, St.Louis all used it, even Pitsburgh used the dump effectively when they were winning. I've said it for years, analytics makes for nice regular season teams but it doesn't measure the will a player has in the post season, its generally why younger teams have a hard time adjusting to playoffs because they arent ready for the increase in speed, intensity and forechecking. It's understanding this that is crucial for teams building for the future. Toronto has wiffed this big time, will be interesting to see if they adjust and if Gorton can implement the same things he did in Boston.

 

[Raspewtin]

It needs to be said, once again:

Face-offs only matter in single game sample sizes, and even then it's still not specific enough to matter. If you're looking at the season/career face-off statistics...don't bother because it's not informational unless it's an incredible outlier.

*cue the 2015 Caps Game 7 OT responses*

lol remember on the Richards 6.6 seconds goal Beagle actually won that faceoff?

 

[Irishguy42]

lol remember on the Richards 6.6 seconds goal Beagle actually won that faceoff?

That just makes it more insane, tbh

 

[True Blue]

Who is included in this logjam? Buchnevich, Kakko, Kravtsov, Gauthier? Am I missing anyone of importance?

So again I ask, where is the log jam?

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Who is included in this logjam? Buchnevich, Kakko, Kravtsov, Gauthier? Am I missing anyone of importance?

A logjam would mean you don't have a spot for a really good player. If those are our right wingers, there's no logjam

 

[NYSPORTS]

All thats great but the most of the cup winners the last number of years used the dump and heavy hockey to win, nothing has really changed, and i don't think you can money ball your way to a cup championship unless you understand that regular season and playoffs are two totally different games. L.A, Boston, Washington, St.Louis all used it, even Pitsburgh used the dump effectively when they were winning. I've said it for years, analytics makes for nice regular season teams but it doesn't measure the will a player has in the post season, its generally why younger teams have a hard time adjusting to playoffs because they arent ready for the increase in speed, intensity and forechecking. It's understanding this that is crucial for teams building for the future. Toronto has wiffed this big time, will be interesting to see if they adjust and if Gorton can implement the same things he did in Boston.

+1, quite a few of us have mentioned this yet while the majority appear to think otherwise.

It’s amazing how much has changed over the past year. Stockpiling #1’s in hopes of a rebuild with a little bit of everything yet so tough to find a star. So the Rangers go sign Panarin with a pretty solid Zibby and likely moving Kreider b/c the team needs more young talent.

Flash forward, two lottery wins added to Panarin and suddenly the team has added 3 stars and Zibby becomes a legit one.

Now we ask ourselves, do we surround these stars with toughness like the teams you mentioned or have our stars skate around with many finesse kids? Cap wise, this could be interesting as Kakko and Laf will likely command Kane/Toews dollars while a lot of these skilled players will be due for raises. We all know, points equal dollars yet @ plethora of finesse doesn’t win cups.