Speculation: Roster Building Thread LXXXVII: Lot’s of Fools in April

[duhmetreE]

The kids need special teams icetime and experience.

If you're not going to give them PP time give the ones who can, PK time. Especially Chytil. I wouldn't mind Kakko either.

 

[DanielBrassard]

For the right cost, Eichel makes a ton of sense. Yes it likely means moving Zibanejad and finding a way to backfill not 1 but likely 2 NHL centers (assuming Chytil is part of Eichel package). But having an elite 1C locked up through his prime at a fair, if high, cap hit is obviously great from a team building perspective.

A generic statement but bear with me - the decision IMO comes down to what the NYR see as the best path to build their team moving forward and how they feel about Zibanejad's next contract. If they believe they already have high end Cup caliber talent in house, albeit on the wings and on D, and they feel Zibanejad will age decently enough to be a competent first line C with elite wings, and that they can re-up him for I don't know...~$8M give or take...then maybe the best path is to keep him. Protect the org depth.

If they have real concerns about his next deal becoming a boat anchor due to health/performance aging, and/or any doubts that they will have the elite wingers that makes up for a less than ideal 1C...then a deal for Eichel (and/or Barkov depending on what happens there) makes a lot more sense. And they may be more willing to include more in the trade package.

There are so many moving parts on trying to guess if the NYR will or should be in on Eichel. How will Zibanejad age, what will his next contract be, can they get a key center for Buch, how do they peg the odds of Lafreniere/Kakko becoming the elite Cup caliber wingers we expect them to be, etc. The decision on these things will likely go a long way to determining if the NYR win a Cup in this window. High stakes.

Very well said.

 

[Edge]

My preference is to keep Chytil at center as well but if they keep Strome and Zib, having another monster wing wouldn't be terrible. Maybe Strome signs a 3 year deal? Would be nice but I wouldn't fault him for getting paid by another team.



I agree. If they can't win in the next few year swith Panarin, Laff, Kreider, Kakko, Buch, and say Kravtsov as their top 9 wings, with that Defense and goaltending, something wen't horribly wrong.

If someone asked me to design my own "ideal" scenario, it would include some of these elements:

• Keep the young talent we have, for now.
• Continue to see how certain guys come along, particularly as they turn pro, and shore up holes by making more informed decisions than guessing and hoping.
• Zibanejad recovers and signs a 6 year, $8.5 million deal.
• If we have to move Buch, focus on acquiring a young-ish center with top six upside as part of the deal.
• Start focusing on depth-pieces. Some of that includes the upcoming draft, and some of it includes finding value free agents like Rooney or Blackwell for roles where we don't need to have to someone locked up on a five year deal.

 

[bbny]

If Zibanejad comes in under 9, they can swing Eichel and Zibanejad down the middle, but it does mean Strome and Buchnevich are out.

What's Strome's next contract going to look like? 7 million? He's putting up 65+ points now. He won't be 5 million. Buchnevich is probably pushing 6 million now as well.

You figure 13 million between Buchnevich and Strome. 12 million if you get them on discounts. Eichel costs 10. That is 2-3 million leftover to spend elsewhere and you have a franchise center.

Some of Buchnevich's minutes would be replaced by Kakko taking more, and he should be cheap for at least a few more years as he is not lighting up the scoresheet yet. Kravtsov, if not in a deal for Eichel, is another cheap option to start taking RW minutes.

I do not see why you cannot have Zibanejad and Eichel while managing the cap wisely. They will have some options in a few seasons if they really need more cap space to pay guys like Kakko, Lafreniere, Kravtsov, Miller, etc., if one or more play to a big pay day. Both NMCs for Kreider and Trouba turn into limited NTCs in 3 summers from now. They can get out of either contract for space if needed. Gorton almost definitely did this on purpose for cap maneuvering later, depending on which kids need to get paid. He might have overpaid Trouba significantly, but he was smart to put "outs" in these kinds of contracts.

 

[Edge]

If Zibanejad comes in under 9, they can swing Eichel and Zibanejad down the middle, but it does mean Strome and Buchnevich are out.

What's Strome's next contract going to look like? 7 million? He's putting up 65+ points now. He won't be 5 million. Buchnevich is probably pushing 6 million now as well.

You figure 13 million between Buchnevich and Strome. 12 million if you get them on discounts. Eichel costs 10. That is 2-3 million leftover to spend elsewhere and you have a franchise center.

Some of Buchnevich's minutes would be replaced by Kakko taking more, and he should be cheap for at least a few more years as he is not lighting up the scoresheet yet. Kravtsov, if not in a deal for Eichel, is another cheap option to start taking RW minutes.

I do not see why you cannot have Zibanejad and Eichel while managing the cap wisely. They will have some options in a few seasons if they really need more cap space to pay guys like Kakko, Lafreniere, Kravtsov, Miller, etc., if one or more play to a big pay day. Both NMCs for Kreider and Trouba turn into limited NTCs in 3 summers from now. They can get out of either contract for space if needed. Gorton almost definitely did this on purpose for cap maneuvering later, depending on which kids need to get paid. He might have overpaid Trouba significantly, but he was smart to put "outs" in these kinds of contracts.

I just can't really see a scenario where the Rangers are going to have $18.5 million tied up in two centers, another $17 million tied up in two left wings, another $12-$14 million in two RDs, and then still have the cap space to pay Lafreniere, Kakko, Miller, Shesterkin, etc.

I think there's a lot of optimism for discounts and getting out of deals to make that scenario work.

The odds of it happening are slim to none.

 

[True Blue]

I agree. If they can't win in the next few year swith Panarin, Laff, Kreider, Kakko, Buch, and say Kravtsov as their top 9 wings, with that Defense and goaltending, something wen't horribly wrong.

Win? Yes. Win the Cup? Probably not. Not in the next few years. The roster still has too many holes.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

You don't build a cup contender by having elite-level contracts at every position. Sure, maybe you go for Eichel if we didn't sign Kreider or Trouba. But we did. And here we are.

The bottom line is, we cannot afford him. Zib vs Eichel - choose one.

In that choice I choose Eichel. He’s younger, he’s a better player and the Rangers can recoup assets sent for Eichel in a Zib trade.

 

[duhmetreE]

I dont see a world where Strome is here. He is going to want to be paid off of his PP1 numbers. I'd look to get that center we lack this TDL with Strome @50%... I know it's unlikely

Move Chytil up with Panarin. Call up Barron for 3C duties or let Blackwell slot there

Strome @ 50% for Krebs
Resign Buch for 2-3 years 15M

 

[Sayba]

It probably depends on how Zibanejad ages and whether he's "close enough to prime".

With high-end talent elsewhere on the roster, we might need a "prime" Zibanejad, so much as we'll need him to still be a first line center.

With Eichel, you're getting the superior player. But what's the cost? (Chytil, Kakko, etc.)

And then, what are the follow-up moves? (Moving Zibanejad, moving Buch, still hunting for a second line center...and probably a third line center, etc.)

My concern with Eichel is that depending on the cost, you end with these aftershocks that completely change the dynamic of what we've been building. But again, it does depend on the cost.

It might come off as recency bias but I keep Kakko over Lafreniere. Maybe I'm wrong but I like his game better.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

And I will tell you that he's not necessarily alone in that thinking. I've heard that rumbling elsewhere, and while it's not inherently the defining narrative out there, it's not isolated either.

Even moving away from those beliefs for a second, we have no idea how Eichel would do in a playoff run either. There's no indication that he's a guy who puts the team on his back and can carry it, or whether he's a guy that causes endless debates come spring time.

Let be honest, pretty small sample size with Zibanejad here as well.

 

[bbny]

I just can't really see a scenario where the Rangers are going to have $18.5 million tied up in two centers, another $17 million tied up in two left wings, another $12-$14 million in two RDs, and then still have the cap space to pay Lafreniere, Kakko, Miller, Shesterkin, etc.

I think there's a lot of optimism for discounts and getting out of deals to make that scenario work.

The odds of it happening are slim to none.

Neither can I, but I don't think it is optimistic that one of Kreider or Trouba would be dealt in another 3 years. I think it is likely, bordering on definite, unless something goes monumentally wrong and none of our kids command a pay day.

The gap between Eichel and Strome will be about 3 million. It doesn't change the cap situation that much.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Something to keep in mind is that the Rangers have already made an offer to Buffalo for Eichel last offseason, when they knew the cap would be flat for the forseeable future, before Zibanejad had his struggles, before the DeAngelo situation. So it seems they are comfortable with their ability to maneuver under the cap with Eichel's contract on the books.

I don't think Eichel has much to do with Strome, but it's a decision between whether the cost to acquire Eichel is worth it as well as whether or not they want to re-sign Zibanejad. If they determine that the risk of re-signing Zibanejad outweighs the cost to acquire Eichel and acquisition price is not absurd that will be the direction they go in assuming Eichel is available IMO.

As @bbny mentioned as well, there will be the opportunity to move a Trouba or Kreider in 3 years when their NMC turn into M-NTC if they need the cap room. To be honest I am not too concerned about the cap as much as what it will take to get Eichel.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Win? Yes. Win the Cup? Probably not. Not in the next few years. The roster still has too many holes.

I think next season they have to establish themselves as a threat. Make the playoffs (not just slide in as an 8 seed) and maybe win a round. After that, it's time to expect contention.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

If someone asked me to design my own "ideal" scenario, it would include some of these elements:

• Keep the young talent we have, for now.
• Continue to see how certain guys come along, particularly as they turn pro, and shore up holes by making more informed decisions than guessing and hoping.
• Zibanejad recovers and signs a 6 year, $8.5 million deal.
• If we have to move Buch, focus on acquiring a young-ish center with top six upside as part of the deal.
• Start focusing on depth-pieces. Some of that includes the upcoming draft, and some of it includes finding value free agents like Rooney or Blackwell for roles where we don't need to have to someone locked up on a five year deal.

I'm in.

 

[MrAlmost]

I wouldn't. Soucy isn't great to begin with and his cap hit is relatively high in the flat cap environment. You can find better players for league minimum than Hajek in FA.

That's fair. And I did remark after that, that an argument could be made to keep Hajek for age, cost and potential. However, Hajek seems to be a defenseman that won't be better than Miller or Lindgren, but won't provide the physical game Soucy provides. And with Lundqvist potentially on the 3rd pair right side, that's another puck mover that may be better than Hajek as well. On top of that, Reunanen might even be yet another Hajek who is even younger and even cheaper still.

I am not saying we should trade him. I guess it was just a thought in potentially using a dynamic we seemingly have a surplus in(puck moving 2-way D) for something we may lack(physical stay at home dman).

 

[MrAlmost]

We should stay away from Eichel. Too much money and too many assets for not enough player. We should look into the likelihood of Tampa moving Cirelli. He would be a better fit with Z and Strome or Z and Chytil. Cost less money wise and less in assets to acquire. Of course, Tampa will probably move other pieces before Cirelli. One can always dream.

 

[TheDirtyH]

It's a shame Doug Armstrong keeps such a focused eye on the future (ie. is a good GM) because I'd love to see a Buchnevich for Robert Thomas swap and a more aggressive win-now while the window's open GM would probably do it the way Thomas has played this year.

 

[effen]

It might come off as recency bias but I keep Kakko over Lafreniere. Maybe I'm wrong but I like his game better.

Laf will be a massively different player in two years when his body allows him to be. We saw the same with Kakko last year.

 

[bobbop]

There is also the concern that @BBKers has been quite resolute in his opinion that Eichel is just "not the type of guy" you want around your team, let alone leading it.

I wouldn't ask for specific examples but there certainly seems to be legit personality/character concerns coming from someone who has knowledge of the player from what I assume are trustworthy sources.

I second this

 

[True Blue]

I think next season they have to establish themselves as a threat. Make the playoffs (not just slide in as an 8 seed) and maybe win a round. After that, it's time to expect contention.

So just to be clear, when you say "contention" what you mean is being a clear Cup contender? Want to make sure that I am not misconstruing anything that you are saying.

If that is the case, I am not sure that I am in agreement. The roster is still flawed. To expect to be thought of as a legit Cup contender in two years, is a bit ambitions. At least from my perch. I certainly hope that you are right, but juts do not see that. I see that more in 3 years or so. There still roster construction and experience that is needed.

 

[rangers1314]

I second this

Sorry @bobbop , it may have been you who raised those concerns previously. Apologies if I got my insiders confused.

 

[Tob]

Just as we had figured.

 

[Kodiak]

And that's the challenge --- there's only so many guys we can take off the table before the deal falls apart. Already, as of earlier updates, Kakko, Lafreniere, Shesterkin, Fox and Miller were all off the table. So that leaves Kravtsov, Chytil, Lundkvist, etc.

I don't know if there's a desire for Buch, which kind of creates a challenge for the Rangers because with or without Eichel, Buch is a prime candidate to be moved. So let's say the 5 untouchables are indeed off the table. That means Kravtsov and Chytil are almost certainly part of the package going the other way. I have a difficult time envisioning any scenario in which we don't have to include them if we're keeping Lafreniere and company.

So now we have Eichel. We still have to move Zibanejad. We probably aren't committing to Strome long-term. We no longer even have Chytil as a third line option. So right off the bat, we're going to have anywhere from two to three different centers behind Eichel than we did before we acquired him.

Buch, because of his next contract, probably still gets moved (it's a distinct possibility regardless of whether we acquire Eichel or keep Zibanejad). But now we don't have Kravtsov potentially stepping up to fill that role. Now we have Kakko and maybe Gauthier? That's a big drop off.

So how do we solve that? We'd have to be clever with returns for Zibanejad and Buch. Which, to be fair, is do-able. But it also means we're talking about major upheavals to both the center and right wing position.

Depending on the cost, that's my biggest concern.

Let's say the cost is Chytil, Kravtsov, Lundkvist, and picks. For Center, we would have to move either Strome or Zibanejad in the same offseason to make room, and whichever one stays is moved at the deadline or allowed to walk after the season. We target a young center that can play 3C next year and slot up to 2C the year after. We're still looking at a hole at 3C the following year, but unless someone like Barron steps up, we are looking at that hole anyway because I don't think Strome will be here past next season.

On RW, we deal Buchnevich, as he may be the price of acquiring the young C. Kakko and Gauthier slot up, or Kreider flips from LW to RW.

So it is a shakeup. Any deal of this magnitude would be. But lines up our contention window with having a 27-30 year old #1 C.

Now I'm going to sit here and await @True Blue's wrath for suggesting a player change positions.

 

[Sayba]

Laf will be a massively different player in two years when his body allows him to be. We saw the same with Kakko last year.

I agree, he will be much better and I could be totally wrong and wouldn't mind if I was. I just like Kakko's style better.

 

[TheDirtyH]

Just as we had figured.

The first Tony DeAngelo casualty.