Speculation: Roster Building Thread LXXXVI: Spring into action (GMJG outta hibernation?)

[Daves a mess]

That's because I saw his 7 second practice shift on the Rangers site. The kid made a weak attempt at reaching for the puck in front of the net.

He's miserable being a Ranger.

This speculation thing here is awesome. Gonna send it to Carpy.

Hes the real genius around here.

 

[kovazub94]

Yea I did find that a bit odd. I thought his commentary about what the NYR actually might offer up for Eichel to be a bit insightful.

Custance had an article this weekend where he asked "NHL execs" their thoughts on fan trade proposals.

Eichel offers:

1. COL for Byram, Newhook, 2022 2nd, 2021 1st. NHL exc: Sabres say no...picks late in the round and no guarantee of getting a star back.
2. CBJ for Seth Jones and Bemstrom. NHL exec: Sabres say no...Jones doesn't have term.
3. NYR for Buchnevich, Strome, Lundqvist, Schneider, 2021 1st. NHL exec: Sabres say no...none of the NYR untouchables are part of the deal (lists as Fox, Shesty, and Panarin (?)). "If you don't want to give up those guys why should Buffalo give up Eichel."
4. MIN for Fiala, Dumba, 1st round pick. NHL exec: Sabres say no...no first line player coming back.
5. LAK for Byfield, Turcotte, Kempe, 2022 1st, 2023 1st, 2022 2nd. NHL exec: "That's what Buffalo would be saying yes to." He does admit "I think the Kings would say no. It's too much for the Kings."

Some pretty hot takes in there.

1. I don't understand how the NYR not being willing to part with their best assets is relevant if their offer still beats other teams and Buffalo feels they have to move Eichel (not saying it does in this scenario just a general point)? Only in the muddled incoherent world of NHL GMs does that make sense.
2. Yea no shit that LA trade would get it done. I would be completely stunned if that was offered. That is basically their rebuild. If that is the type of value it would take it really means that Eichel is not getting traded. Based on the situation as it presently stands.
   
3. Pretty sure this exec works in the Sabres front office?

How about setting up at least one common denominator and ask how the trade would work for Col or LAK to be able to fit Eichel under the cap?

 

[Kodiak]

Yea I did find that a bit odd. I thought his commentary about what the NYR actually might offer up for Eichel to be a bit insightful.

Custance had an article this weekend where he asked "NHL execs" their thoughts on fan trade proposals.

Eichel offers:

1. COL for Byram, Newhook, 2022 2nd, 2021 1st. NHL exc: Sabres say no...picks late in the round and no guarantee of getting a star back.
2. CBJ for Seth Jones and Bemstrom. NHL exec: Sabres say no...Jones doesn't have term.
3. NYR for Buchnevich, Strome, Lundqvist, Schneider, 2021 1st. NHL exec: Sabres say no...none of the NYR untouchables are part of the deal (lists as Fox, Shesty, and Panarin (?)). "If you don't want to give up those guys why should Buffalo give up Eichel."
4. MIN for Fiala, Dumba, 1st round pick. NHL exec: Sabres say no...no first line player coming back.
5. LAK for Byfield, Turcotte, Kempe, 2022 1st, 2023 1st, 2022 2nd. NHL exec: "That's what Buffalo would be saying yes to." He does admit "I think the Kings would say no. It's too much for the Kings."

Some pretty hot takes in there.

1. I don't understand how the NYR not being willing to part with their best assets is relevant if their offer still beats other teams and Buffalo feels they have to move Eichel (not saying it does in this scenario just a general point)? Only in the muddled incoherent world of NHL GMs does that make sense.
2. Yea no shit that LA trade would get it done. I would be completely stunned if that was offered. That is basically their rebuild. If that is the type of value it would take it really means that Eichel is not getting traded. Based on the situation as it presently stands.
   
3. Pretty sure this exec works in the Sabres front office?

That LA trade is crazy. Is there any trade in recent history that would be even close to that? Or do you have to go back to the Lindros and Gretzky trades?

 

[Savant]

I mean, I’d trade Igor in an Eichel deal but what do I know.

shame that as potentially good as the Rangers are set up for the future they are going to be stuck behind LA (Eichel trade or not) again

 

[GAGLine]

I mean, I’d trade Igor in an Eichel deal but what do I know.

shame that as potentially good as the Rangers are set up for the future they are going to be stuck behind LA (Eichel trade or not) again

If you trade Igor, who is our starting goalie?

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

There’s a less than zero chance Buffalo is getting that for Eichel from LA

No team is giving up 4/5+ blue chip assets for him

Eichel will never get traded if that’s what Buffalo is holding out for. They’d be banking on robbing a team blind and NHL GMs are notoriously risk averse

no way no chance

it’s these pundits and execs forget that NHL teams never get an out of this world haul for a top player.

 

[Fitzy]

It's hard to predict, because you've got numerous case studies of a young center being dealt for all kinds of different returns.

Thornton got a 2nd line center, 1st pairing young D
Duchene got a haul of young players and picks
Johansen got a equivalent defenseman
Brad Richards got a few spare pieces

I don't want to be the team that overbids for Jack Eichel. What would he get paid if he was a UFA tomorrow in the flat cap world? 12 mil a year? You want to take a huge cut of possible future ELC players for a guy making 2 mil under his market value?

 

[CupSeeker]

I mean, I’d trade Igor in an Eichel deal but what do I know.

shame that as potentially good as the Rangers are set up for the future they are going to be stuck behind LA (Eichel trade or not) again

I don't see us being stuck behind LA. They have way more unknowns than we do. Their core is much older than ours and I would take our young players plus pipeline over theirs. Not sure where you are coming from here. And Turcotte is overrated.

 

[itsPLkielbasa]

There’s a less than zero chance Buffalo is getting that for Eichel from LA

No team is giving up 4/5+ blue chip assets for him

Eichel will never get traded if that’s what Buffalo is holding out for. They’d be banking on robbing a team blind and NHL GMs are notoriously risk averse

no way no chance

it’s these pundits and execs forget that NHL teams never get an out of this world haul for a top player.

Exactly. I don't see the Rangers or any other teams that are rebuilding trading most of their rebuild for one player. It makes no sense at all. Eichel is not a generational talent like McDavid. I'm not saying he isn't great but it's pretty much taking 1 step forward and 3 back.

 

[Matt Rentfree]

It's hard to predict, because you've got numerous case studies of a young center being dealt for all kinds of different returns.

Thornton got a 2nd line center, 1st pairing young D
Duchene got a haul of young players and picks
Johansen got a equivalent defenseman
Brad Richards got a few spare pieces

I don't want to be the team that overbids for Jack Eichel. What would he get paid if he was a UFA tomorrow in the flat cap world? 12 mil a year? You want to take a huge cut of possible future ELC players for a guy making 2 mil under his market value?

If we're giving away assets, I'd much rather give them away for someone like Turcotte. Not saying there's a deal to be made for him specifically, but that's the kind of player I'd want. Someone cost controlled who can slot in behind Zibanejad and take over for Zib as he ages and starts to decline. Eichel just seems like a player who if we trade for him, we not only lose the assets that go the other way, but we also lose Zibanejad and Buch because we can't stay under the cap with all 3 of them on the roster.

 

[JimmyG89]

When the Sabres were trying to move O'Reilly, those talks were about how they were not willing to take anything less than an overpay. It seems like the organization hasn't learned from their past now with Eichel.

Of course you cannot give him away for nothing, but looking to get guys that were just drafted in the top 5, some not even in the NHL just yet, is just not something that happens. They aren't going to be able to get a Byfield type player from the Kings. Someone like Fox isn't going to be in that deal.

People bring up the Matt Duchene trade, but that was just a really bad move by Ottawa and Nashville where Colorado took advantage of both organizations. Buffalo should be trying to get 5 pieces, with two of those being high end pieces, another two that are good pieces, and a draft pick.

Some people might not like it, but the Rangers package would be something like this in that mold: 2021 1st, Chytil, Lundkvist, Gauthier, and one of Robertson/Jones.

 

[MarkMessyay11]

Yea I did find that a bit odd. I thought his commentary about what the NYR actually might offer up for Eichel to be a bit insightful.

Custance had an article this weekend where he asked "NHL execs" their thoughts on fan trade proposals.

Eichel offers:

1. COL for Byram, Newhook, 2022 2nd, 2021 1st. NHL exc: Sabres say no...picks late in the round and no guarantee of getting a star back.
2. CBJ for Seth Jones and Bemstrom. NHL exec: Sabres say no...Jones doesn't have term.
3. NYR for Buchnevich, Strome, Lundqvist, Schneider, 2021 1st. NHL exec: Sabres say no...none of the NYR untouchables are part of the deal (lists as Fox, Shesty, and Panarin (?)). "If you don't want to give up those guys why should Buffalo give up Eichel."
4. MIN for Fiala, Dumba, 1st round pick. NHL exec: Sabres say no...no first line player coming back.
5. LAK for Byfield, Turcotte, Kempe, 2022 1st, 2023 1st, 2022 2nd. NHL exec: "That's what Buffalo would be saying yes to." He does admit "I think the Kings would say no. It's too much for the Kings."

Some pretty hot takes in there.

1. I don't understand how the NYR not being willing to part with their best assets is relevant if their offer still beats other teams and Buffalo feels they have to move Eichel (not saying it does in this scenario just a general point)? Only in the muddled incoherent world of NHL GMs does that make sense.
2. Yea no shit that LA trade would get it done. I would be completely stunned if that was offered. That is basically their rebuild. If that is the type of value it would take it really means that Eichel is not getting traded. Based on the situation as it presently stands.
   
3. Pretty sure this exec works in the Sabres front office?

We go through this every time a big name hits the market. Media hypes the return, team's fanbase gets outraged at anything less than a premium++ return, trade talks drag out and fizzle because "the offers aren't there"...then the player is traded 75% of the "premium" instead of 125% or more...

Unless Gorton and Blake get into an insane bidding war, the price isn't going to be anything close to one of those 5 "offers".

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Yea I did find that a bit odd. I thought his commentary about what the NYR actually might offer up for Eichel to be a bit insightful.

Custance had an article this weekend where he asked "NHL execs" their thoughts on fan trade proposals.

Eichel offers:

1. COL for Byram, Newhook, 2022 2nd, 2021 1st. NHL exc: Sabres say no...picks late in the round and no guarantee of getting a star back.
2. CBJ for Seth Jones and Bemstrom. NHL exec: Sabres say no...Jones doesn't have term.
3. NYR for Buchnevich, Strome, Lundqvist, Schneider, 2021 1st. NHL exec: Sabres say no...none of the NYR untouchables are part of the deal (lists as Fox, Shesty, and Panarin (?)). "If you don't want to give up those guys why should Buffalo give up Eichel."
4. MIN for Fiala, Dumba, 1st round pick. NHL exec: Sabres say no...no first line player coming back.
5. LAK for Byfield, Turcotte, Kempe, 2022 1st, 2023 1st, 2022 2nd. NHL exec: "That's what Buffalo would be saying yes to." He does admit "I think the Kings would say no. It's too much for the Kings."

Some pretty hot takes in there.

1. I don't understand how the NYR not being willing to part with their best assets is relevant if their offer still beats other teams and Buffalo feels they have to move Eichel (not saying it does in this scenario just a general point)? Only in the muddled incoherent world of NHL GMs does that make sense.
2. Yea no shit that LA trade would get it done. I would be completely stunned if that was offered. That is basically their rebuild. If that is the type of value it would take it really means that Eichel is not getting traded. Based on the situation as it presently stands.
   
3. Pretty sure this exec works in the Sabres front office?

Yeah what a useless exercise. “So basically the one Offer that won’t be made is the one you’d pick to make it work”

I think right here is the reason people know Eichel is not going to bring back the greatest offer of all time if even this guy is like “yeah that’s not gonna be the offer”

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

I think that Buffalo definitely says no to that offer from us. At least until Eichel forces his way out; then who knows.

Using Fox as a centrepiece looks right value-wise, but our defense would be absolutely crippled by it. We may not have an Eichel at C right now, but our top9 is looking pretty damn good for a couple years down the road.

For my money, Fox + ~2.5M will have more value to this roster than Eichel would.

I agree on Buffalo likely saying no to that offer. But even if Fox looks right value-wise, why would the NYR offer him up if no other team has an asset equivalent to Fox on the table?

If the NYR really want Eichel, they will only offer enough to beat other offers that are out there. Admittedly this is a bit of a poker game as there is no way Gorton will know every other offer on the table. But I think there is a high probability, and would operate under the assumption that no other team has a Fox to give - and therefore there is no reason the NYR should have to include Fox to have the best offer. This is predicated on Buffalo feeling that they have to move Eichel and are just finding the high bid...it also assumes NHL GMs are rational actors.

 

[DutchShamrock]

Every team says they won't settle for anything less than an overpayment. Then they settle for an underwhelming return.

The Sabres can wait while their fans balk at ticket purchases and hope this mix of players performs totally differently than they have for a decade.

Something has to give there. They can't trade the rest of the team. Skinner at $9 mil? If they could have gotten a good return for Risto, they probably would have done it by now. The owners are blocking his trade? Ok, you are done as a franchise until you get a new owner like the Blackhawks.

Take a package deal and pivot. No one is getting a sudden windfall in cap space. No one is throwing the Sabres a life preserver. No one is trading away multiple rookie contracts in this climate. Buffalo is just trying to salvage some modicum of leverage with this lip service.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

Apparently Nucks and Panthers have discussed Virtanen for Nutivaara. I would do Hajek for sure.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

There’s a less than zero chance Buffalo is getting that for Eichel from LA

No team is giving up 4/5+ blue chip assets for him

Eichel will never get traded if that’s what Buffalo is holding out for. They’d be banking on robbing a team blind and NHL GMs are notoriously risk averse

no way no chance

it’s these pundits and execs forget that NHL teams never get an out of this world haul for a top player.

Not to mention that the most recent example of a GM giving up a huge haul (Ottawa to Colorado for Duchene) it completely blew up in their face.

So GM's are always extremely risk averse, most recent example of a star bringing in a haul drastically favors the team that received the haul, Eichel makes 10m in a flat cap league.

The idea that he's going to return 4-5 blue chip assets is insanity. And I say that as a massive Eichel fan.

 

[GAGLine]

Apparently Nucks and Panthers have discussed Virtanen for Nutivaara. I would do Hajek for sure.

Where is he going to play?

 

[TheBloodyNine]

I also have a hard time thinking the return for Eichel is going to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back here. They haven’t won a game since February.

 

[Kendo]

In a perfect world five years from now.

Lindgren - Fox
Miller - Schneider
Robertson - Lundkvist

That future alone should keep Gorton's job secure for a while. All of those guys except Robertson and Schneider were targeted and dealt for in some capacity, whether it was moving up in the draft, finagaling trade pieces, or gambling asset capital.

Moved up for Schneider as well!

 

[Savant]

If you trade Igor, who is our starting goalie?

Someone else. If you can trade a goalie for a 1C (who is younger than Igor) you do it and then you figure the rest out later.

 

[Kocur Dill]

Hockey pundits:

Scenario 1: "OMG. NYR has such a deep pipeline of talent. They are easily top 2 the past few years in assets they could trade im the future to fill holes. GM Gorton has done a spectacular job stockpiling trade capital."

Scenario 2: Asset becomes available that fills NYR hole. "No way, not enough, all those kids are garbage. You won't get this guy for that."

Can't have it both ways guys. I swear, some of these writers and execs are only a very expensive education of separation from HFB posters.

 

[Savant]

I don't see us being stuck behind LA. They have way more unknowns than we do. Their core is much older than ours and I would take our young players plus pipeline over theirs. Not sure where you are coming from here. And Turcotte is overrated.

They are better positioned. Their pieces make more sense together and they don’t need to figure out Center ice. They are in a better cap situation, also in a big market, and have more attractive trade assets. They are better off.

 

[Kocur Dill]

Moved up for Schneider as well!

I thought so, but couldn't remember and was too lazy to check. I actually had it written that way at first and edited it when I second guessed myself.

 

[ElLeetch]

Eichel offers:

1. COL for Byram, Newhook, 2022 2nd, 2021 1st. NHL exc: Sabres say no...picks late in the round and no guarantee of getting a star back.
2. CBJ for Seth Jones and Bemstrom. NHL exec: Sabres say no...Jones doesn't have term.
3. NYR for Buchnevich, Strome, Lundqvist, Schneider, 2021 1st. NHL exec: Sabres say no...none of the NYR untouchables are part of the deal (lists as Fox, Shesty, and Panarin (?)). "If you don't want to give up those guys why should Buffalo give up Eichel."
4. MIN for Fiala, Dumba, 1st round pick. NHL exec: Sabres say no...no first line player coming back.
5. LAK for Byfield, Turcotte, Kempe, 2022 1st, 2023 1st, 2022 2nd. NHL exec: "That's what Buffalo would be saying yes to." He does admit "I think the Kings would say no. It's too much for the Kings."

Some pretty hot takes in there.

1. I don't understand how the NYR not being willing to part with their best assets is relevant if their offer still beats other teams and Buffalo feels they have to move Eichel (not saying it does in this scenario just a general point)? Only in the muddled incoherent world of NHL GMs does that make sense.
2. Yea no shit that LA trade would get it done. I would be completely stunned if that was offered. That is basically their rebuild. If that is the type of value it would take it really means that Eichel is not getting traded. Based on the situation as it presently stands.
   
3. Pretty sure this exec works in the Sabres front office?

Shitty reporting. Basically "BUF want accept anything except what no team would be willing to give".

Players who want out get traded. Thats just the reality of it. Therefore, there is *going* to be common ground where *both* parties don't walk away with a steal, as in the case with all those examples.

That LA trade is for McDavid. Eichel is good. but he is not elite. In 6 NHL seasons, he crossed the 80 point mark once. "his team sucks" and "well he got hurt" are not excuses. they are reasons for devaluating the asset. They are factors in the trade calculations.