Speculation: Roster Building Thread LXXXVI: Spring into action (GMJG outta hibernation?)

[gravey9]

They do, but I think it's easier to navigate when you're an experienced team, with established depth, rather than a younger team where on any given night five of your forwards have played the equivalent of two or less full seasons of NHL hockey, and as many as 2/3 of your defense has played two or less seasons of NHL hockey.

That's HUGE right now.

If we were take a snapshot of this lineup, we're talking about more than half the players being 22 or younger and having 165 or less games under their belt.

These players are barely old enough to buy a post-game beer, let alone rent a car.

The most important skill for a young NYR forward to succeed seems to be puck-hounding. I don't know if this is the case for all rookie forwards on all teams throughout the league. But it is with NYR. Puck-hounding is not something kids with elite skill had to perfect at lower levels. In addition, perfecting it at the NHL level requires above average foot speed, NHL strength and just reading the game differently. It's a big adjustment. And it's clear TOI is directly correlated to developing this skill. The impact? Offensive stats for young forwards across the board have been affected downwards.

Chytil -- his speed/tenacity/puckhoundability has easily made him the most effective young player on our roster since he joined the team. As a result he's had the easiest adjustment to just being a fit on the NHL team. Notice though, even his offensive numbers have also lagged significantly behind his effectiveness.

Kakko - last year he couldn't puck hound. This year he can. He's been a far more effective player. He's gotten more TOI. And you can tell immediately when his energy slips during a game. But again, like Chytil his offensive numbers have greatly lagged behind his effectiveness.

Laf -- he really hasn't figured out how to be a consistent effective puckhound. He hesitates far too much and is reading and reacting instead of pressuring. Like Kakko last year. As a result, he's often been a drag on his line's ability to maintain a forecheck and consistent pressure.

Gauthier - again, direct correlation between his puck-hounding skills and playing time/effectiveness. The more effective he's been on the forecheck, the more TOI he gets. Again his offense has lagged behind his effectiveness. He separately has a penalty issue he needs to work through.

Howden -- a great puck-hound. Mediocre to horrible at just about every else. Gets playing time because of his ability to puck-hound.

Lias -- didn't have the foot speed to puck-hound when he was here. And you know the rest of the story.

Kravtsov -- once he started puck-hounding in HFD, he got more ice.

I guess my point in all this is -- there's an organizational strategy that seems very rigid in terms of how they want their young forwards to play in order to get ice time. The theory seems to be: if we can get everyone to play the same way, it will have an overall long term benefit on the team structure.

The downside may be that our top end young guys may not look like top end players for a several seasons. Or ever. The hope is, as their game slowly becomes more pressure-oriented, their confidence to be truly elite doesn't get eroded to the point where they're just 25-25 guys at their peak.

I might be wrong but I believe this strategy is one employed by teams like the Bruins with their young talent. So, it can and does work. But it's a loooong game. Look at players like DeBrusk and Studnicka -- it's a long development curve with lots of bumps along the way.

The challenging aspect of this philosophy is -- what happens if in two years we change coaches and the system. Is it a wise long term strategy to mold every player around the current forecheck pressure system? Are we impacting the ceiling of any of these kids in the process? I bet experts would say that's unlikely, but given the long development curve, this concern IS the source of anxiety in the back of most fans' minds.

 

[Edge]

The most important skill for a young NYR forward to succeed seems to be puck-hounding. I don't know if this is the case for all rookie forwards on all teams throughout the league. But it is with NYR. Puck-hounding is not something kids with elite skill had to perfect at lower levels. In addition, perfecting it at the NHL level requires above average foot speed, NHL strength and just reading the game differently. It's a big adjustment. And it's clear TOI is directly correlated to developing this skill. The impact? Offensive stats for young forwards across the board have been affected downwards.

Chytil -- his speed/tenacity/puckhoundability has easily made him the most effective young player on our roster since he joined the team. As a result he's had the easiest adjustment to just being a fit on the NHL team. Notice though, even his offensive numbers have also lagged significantly behind his effectiveness.

Kakko - last year he couldn't puck hound. This year he can. He's been a far more effective player. He's gotten more TOI. And you can tell immediately when his energy slips during a game. But again, like Chytil his offensive numbers have greatly lagged behind his effectiveness.

Laf -- he really hasn't figured out how to be a consistent effective puckhound. He hesitates far too much and is reading and reacting instead of pressuring. Like Kakko last year. As a result, he's often been a drag on his line's ability to maintain a forecheck and consistent pressure.

Gauthier - again, direct correlation between his puck-hounding skills and playing time/effectiveness. The more effective he's been on the forecheck, the more TOI he gets. Again his offense has lagged behind his effectiveness. He separately has a penalty issue he needs to work through.

Howden -- a great puck-hound. Mediocre to horrible at just about every else. Gets playing time because of his ability to puck-hound.

Lias -- didn't have the foot speed to puck-hound when he was here. And you know the rest of the story.

Kravtsov -- once he started puck-hounding in HFD, he got more ice.

I guess my point in all this is -- there's an organizational strategy that seems very rigid in terms of how they want their young forwards to play in order to get ice time. The theory seems to be: if we can get everyone to play the same way, it will have an overall long term benefit on the team structure.

The downside may be that our top end young guys may not look like top end players for a several seasons. Or ever. The hope is, as their game slowly becomes more pressure-oriented, their confidence to be truly elite doesn't get eroded to the point where they're just 25-25 guys at their peak.

I might be wrong but I believe this strategy is one employed by teams like the Bruins with their young talent. So, it can and does work. But it's a loooong game. Look at players like DeBrusk and Studnicka -- it's a long development curve with lots of bumps along the way.

The challenging to this philosophy is -- what happens if in two years we change coaches and the system. Is it a wise long term strategy to mold every player around the current forecheck pressure system? Are we impacting the ceiling of any of these kids in the process? I bet experts would say that's unlikely, but given the long development curve, this concern IS the source of anxiety in the back of most fans' minds.

I think you make an excellent point. Kakko is a very different player when he keeps his feet moving at this level. Lafreniere is going to have to learn the same. Like a lot of young talent, he tends to glide out there. And to a point @Kovalev27 made earlier, that's just not gonna work in a league where skating, speed, etc. are top notch.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Could see a situation where the Rangers keep their 1st this year and go for a guy who seems like a safe bet to be an NHL player in a couple years (safe bet being relative of course).

As mentioned you need ELC talent coming in as these guys get more expensive. A guy like Raty who could take a couple years to marinate but could play a middle 6 role cheap when they need it

 

[duhmetreE]

I'd keep our 1st rounder every draft unless its for a looooong term young center. Keep adding to the farm. Keep having kids rotate in when the time presents itself.

It's going to get a lot harder to 'hit' in the draft when we start drafting on the back 3rd.

 

[Edge]

Could see a situation where the Rangers keep their 1st this year and go for a guy who seems like a safe bet to be an NHL player in a couple years (safe bet being relative of course).

As mentioned you need ELC talent coming in as these guys get more expensive. A guy like Raty who could take a couple years to marinate but could play a middle 6 role cheap when they need it

Raty is one of those guys who I was never sold on as the top pick, or even a sure-fire top-5 or top-10 pick.

But in that 11-15 range? I like him a lot.

I think the key with Raty is expectations. I don't go in expecting a top six forward, or a guy who should be considered a blue chip prospect. If he takes a giant step forward after being drafted, that's awesome. Of course I'd take that. But I would consider that a bonus rather than an expectation.

But he's definitely a guy who looks like he has a path to the NHL. He also looks like a guy who could do his best if allowed to develop without a world of expectations heaped upon him.

Does anyone in Europe know his contract status for next year?

 

[duhmetreE]

Raty is one of those guys who I was never sold on as the top pick, or even a sure-fire top-5 or top-10 pick.

But in that 11-15 range? I like him a lot.

I think the key with Raty is expectations. I don't go in expecting a top six forward, or a guy who should be considered a blue chip prospect. If he takes a giant step forward after being drafted, that's awesome. Of course I'd take that. But I would consider that a bonus rather than an expectation.

But he's definitely a guy who looks like he has a path to the NHL. He also looks like a guy who could do his best if allowed to develop without a world of expectations heaped upon him.

Does anyone in Europe know his contract status for next year?

Contract status? @Amazing Kreiderman can tell you what he ate for lunch.

 

[CupSeeker]

I am not saying he is getting exposed. I am saying that while I see elements that are improving, I still not see quite enough. Am more than willing to wait and see. But Gauthier is facing an up or out scenario. He needs to take active steps to ensure that he is not on the outside looking in. If Kravstov manages to take the ball and run with it, the clock's ticking gets that much louder.

A 3rd line of Kreider, Chytil and Gauthier would be pretty scary for oppositions, assuming there's a reason to move CK away from Zib.

 

[MarkMessyay11]

I'm not trying to be a downer but you can spin it anyway, we barely escaped last night with a one goal win in a game where we blew a 2 goal lead in the third period to a near record settingly bad team, and this NYR team isn't good enough to compare such a win to how good teams halfass their way to some victories. This team hasn't earned such status, as prior to last night we were a .500 team.

I'm not trying to spin it as much as I am trying to keep perspective. And I'm also not saying good teams earn the right to give half-assed efforts and still win. I'm saying good teams can get away with it and that's what happened to us last night. They're certainly not a "good" team yet, but the signs are there.

I think we're both trying to say the same thing, more or less. I think this is still a young, inexperienced team and anyone who had/has expectations of the playoffs this season is being naive. The growing pains are still prevalent - Boston 4-0 loss, Philly 5-4 loss, giving up the lead late vs. Washington, giving up the lead last night in the 3rd. But they're also fewer than last season and the resiliency has been impressive - beating Boston 4-0, beating Philly 9-0, beating Washington 3-1, answering with a PPG last night almost immediately after giving up the lead and then pretty much suffocating a bad team for the rest of the game.

But they definitely need to find some more consistency on a weekly basis and also need to let the young guys continue to develop. Both of which are happening...I don't think the organization and players are nearly as impatient as a majority of the fanbase in that regard.

 

[bl02]

TSN 690 montreal saying that the fans were chanting “we want Eichel”
Was that the chant?
Knuckles Nilan doing a segment on it now. How crazy the blue seaters are and were

 

[True Blue]

A 3rd line of Kreider, Chytil and Gauthier would be pretty scary for oppositions, assuming there's a reason to move CK away from Zib.

Yes, but I cannot see them dismantling the top-2 lines right now

 

[EdJovanovski]

Tune in to the latest episode featuring yours truly!
‎Spittin Chiclets on Apple Podcasts

 

[True Blue]

I think you make an excellent point. Kakko is a very different player when he keeps his feet moving at this level. Lafreniere is going to have to learn the same. Like a lot of young talent, he tends to glide out there. And to a point @Kovalev27 made earlier, that's just not gonna work in a league where skating, speed, etc. are top notch.

I think that this all comes back to a point that I believe Tawnos made. Part of development is breaking bad habits. The build up of bad habits comes from becoming a player that is too good for the league that he is in. That was Kakko in Liga and Lafreniere as an older player in the Q. Statements of just letting prospects do what they want are not rooted in reality. The version that Kakko was comfortable with would have been a very good player.....in Liga. The version of Lafreniere that was comfortable in the Q would have had a great career.....as an overager in the Q.

 

[bl02]

I think you make an excellent point. Kakko is a very different player when he keeps his feet moving at this level. Lafreniere is going to have to learn the same. Like a lot of young talent, he tends to glide out there. And to a point @Kovalev27 made earlier, that's just not gonna work in a league where skating, speed, etc. are top notch.

I saw a lot less gliding and more skating in all zones and situations last night. And Kakko continuously going to the net when he had the chance. Maybe both had good chat with the coaching staff???

 

[Edge]

I saw a lot less gliding and more skating in all zones and situations last night. And Kakko continuously going to the net when he had the chance. Maybe both had good chat with the coaching staff???

I would imagine that when he's doing what they want him to do, they go back and show him side-by-side comparisons so he can see the difference (in addition to building on any tangible results).

Those are things you try to pound into kids.

It's funny, while we naturally are more inclined to watch young players like Kakko, or Lafreniere or even Miller, the Rangers have spent and continue to spend quite a bit of time with younger players in whom they see something. This includes guys ADA, Gauthier, Howden, Lemieux, etc.

Now you're not going to turn water into wine every single time, but the Rangers have shown they are interested in trying to get those guys to take the next steps. So it's not just the blue chippers they focus on.

 

[Fitzy]

A 3rd line of Kreider, Chytil and Gauthier would be pretty scary for oppositions, assuming there's a reason to move CK away from Zib.

I tend to think you like to see one big speedy puck lugger per line.

Put all three together and you hit diminishing returns, because not everyone can play the “fly” role on the breakout at once

 

[BKGooner]

I tend to think you like to see one big speedy puck lugger per line.

Put all three together and you hit diminishing returns, because not everyone can play the “fly” role on the breakout at once

Keep Kreider as the guy flying the zone and maybe have them add a cycle game with a two man forecheck. Plenty of dump and chase hits and puck recoveries with the size and speed. Let them go to work on a top dman in a playoff series or feast on a 3rd pair and turnovers.

 

[CupSeeker]

I tend to think you like to see one big speedy puck lugger per line.

Put all three together and you hit diminishing returns, because not everyone can play the “fly” role on the breakout at once

there would be no issues with anyone not keeping up

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Those are things you try to pound into kids.

Reminding me of this right now Edge:

 

[duhmetreE]

I saw a lot less gliding and more skating in all zones and situations last night. And Kakko continuously going to the net when he had the chance. Maybe both had good chat with the coaching staff???

This is a team wide issue IMO

I do not know if they're overloaded and bottlenecking their processor but we are at our best when we attack. When we puck watch and react we look Buffaloesque.

All the good teams I watch, pressure and attack relentlessly. It's not an option

 

[egelband]

This is in regards to what @Edge said earlier about prospects not coming out of the gate as fast over the last few years. I think the reason for this is because the league is maxed out in talent. Over the last few decades goons have gone extinct, big slow moving dmen have gone extinct. We are seeing the league operating at full capacity since they got rid of the 2 line pass. Players have never been more athletic and fast than they are now. We are living in the golden age of hockey whether we realize it or not. There’s more talent spread out across the board than at any other point in the history of the sport. Prove me wrong. And that’s why it’s harder for kids to come right away and produce, it’s very rare now. And when you factor in our division this year, you get what you see. My only question to Edge is, do you think the kids having to play against tough teams in the division this year will help their development or hurt it?

Totally agree. The lowest common denominator is higher than ever.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Kreider earning his contract at this point. 16 goals is pretty good considering his slow start.

 

[Dr. Ogrodnick]

Kreider earning his contract at this point. 16 goals is pretty good considering his slow start.

He'd be on pace for a 42 goal season if they were playing the full 82.

 

[GAGLine]

He'd be on pace for a 42 goal season if they were playing the full 82.

Hopefully last night was the start of another streak for him.

 

[Ola]

This is in regards to what @Edge said earlier about prospects not coming out of the gate as fast over the last few years. I think the reason for this is because the league is maxed out in talent. Over the last few decades goons have gone extinct, big slow moving dmen have gone extinct. We are seeing the league operating at full capacity since they got rid of the 2 line pass. Players have never been more athletic and fast than they are now. We are living in the golden age of hockey whether we realize it or not. There’s more talent spread out across the board than at any other point in the history of the sport. Prove me wrong. And that’s why it’s harder for kids to come right away and produce, it’s very rare now. And when you factor in our division this year, you get what you see. My only question to Edge is, do you think the kids having to play against tough teams in the division this year will help their development or hurt it?

This is definitely the case. From when I started to follow hockey really closely in the early 90s, its super obvious that there are "cycles". I've written about it many times. You got the early 90s with a ton of talent especially coming from the Eastern Block that opened up the NHL game. Its no coincidence that those drafts in the early 90s are extremely good. Fast forward 15 years, and you got the NHL game opening up again after the lock-out, the redline offside rule was removed, the crack down on clutching and grabbing. No suprise that the 03' draft was super good. Like every time the game changes a lot -- the drafts are super good, is that just a coincidence? Of course not. Maybe all those guys that made the 03' draft wasn't super talented, like Mike Richards, Zach Parise, Thomas Vanek, Nathan Horton. We used to rave about these guys. All had awsome numbers at times. From my POV, they clearly benefitted alot by being allowed to enter the NHL at a time there was a lot of room and they could build on that.

And just like us getting these super cycles, its only natural that there is a rebound on the down side. If a ton of players enter the NHL at a specific time and establish themselves, they gain an advantage because there is no place learning the NHL game as playing in the NHL (at a certain level of course), and go say 7-9 years from those super cycles, you get some really tough times. Like some of those 97-99 drafts are among the worst ever.

We are -- definitely -- at a peak of a super cycle right now, for puck moving Ds. Like go back 10 years, 2011, who were the top PMDs in hockey? There weren't many. Erik Karlsson came along, and he was pretty alone. Now there is a ton of young PMDs entering the league on a very broad front. Why? Kids are allowed to move the puck, they see what Karlsson could do and follow suite, coaches put smallish skill players on the blueline -- all these things matter.

But for forwards I don't think its extremely hard, but its not easy either.

I've said this before, but I think our organization right now gravely are underestimating the level of support that a young kid must get. There is no plan. There is no realistic analisys, expectations aren't established, goals aren't sat. I thought Kakko's usage last season was OK. But really -- this year its been a disaster. He starts by like scorign 3 in the first 5 games, then he gets zero PP time and Howden gets more PP time for him for several games. He hadn't scored since then before yesterday. That is just an example that is so obviously. But what should be done is looking at Kakko's game in detail, looking at Laf's game in detail, and establishing, hey look, these kids can do X, Y and Z. They cannot do A, B and C. Should we keep them in juniors or bring them to the NHL? To not torpedo their development, they must play fairly much in fairly big roles, and especially be involved offensively. Ok we should bring them to the NHL. Well, then we must let them play to their strength. Kakko should play on the right side on the PP and run the play. He must have have a center that can draw attention at center ice and get him the puck. Playing 11 minutes a night on a 3rd line and spare PP time won't suffice. Laf must ... -- and so forth.

Kids don't all of a sudden find their game when they are 22 y/o. Look at EDM, there is no time to rebound. Getting a No 2 and No 1 overall pick is (was?) and unique opportunity for this franchise. Management came in 100% unprepared. Unfortunately, but its a fact. And it sucks.

 

[Ola]

Here is "Coach Quinn" talking about how he wants the team to go back to playnig that super strict N-S style that we played when we didn't score any thing and played super predictable hockey (starting at app. 3:55:


How long before he is back? Like DQ (indirectly) says in this interview, the players aren't listening to him. The players won't listen to him when he gets back too, but that doesn't mean that he can't do damage.

When your shooting percentage is the lowest in the NHL, its not even a remotely about bad puck luck. It is structural, LAK was there for a long long time. Its not like Anze Kopitar, Carter and co all of a sudden couldn't shoot, they were super disciplined, didn't gamble with the puck, didn't go staright to the net but dumped and chased instead, faced collected defenses -- and so forth. DQ doesn't realize that.