Speculation: Roster Building Thread LXXXI - All along the Watch Tower

[KirkAlbuquerque]

probably an unpopular opinion but Brendan Smith should be re-signed to a non 4M contract

It's anecdotal but I believe the team shows more resilience when he's in the lineup

Yeah he’s perfectly fine

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

No way they get him without giving up Laf or KK

Quick trade Laf while he still has some value

 

[Fitzy]

I’m certainly not advocating that NYR go after RNH in free agency, but with the league at a flat cap and all these massive packages being discussed for a star center, one wonders if we got the Nuge for around 6 mil a season of Zibanejad, RNH, Chytil isn’t a sufficient trio of centers moving forward. Strome can be moved for cap space.

Of course, that’s contingent on how Zibby finishes the year.

 

[HonestGabe]

probably an unpopular opinion but Brendan Smith should be re-signed to a non 4M contract

It's anecdotal but I believe the team shows more resilience when he's in the lineup

I think our thoughts about Smith would be a lot different if he were making 2-2.5m instead of 4.35m

He is a fine bottom pair defenseman and can bring an edge to the lineup.

 

[IDvsEGO]

I’m certainly not advocating that NYR go after RNH in free agency, but with the league at a flat cap and all these massive packages being discussed for a star center, one wonders if we got the Nuge for around 6 mil a season of Zibanejad, RNH, Chytil isn’t a sufficient trio of centers moving forward. Strome can be moved for cap space.

Of course, that’s contingent on how Zibby finishes the year.

My problem is that rnh at 6m a season is too much for a 3c and potentially blocks chytil as a 2C. He’s not a bad 3C but he’s gonna want a long contract and I don’t see him outperforming a 7 year 6m deal.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

I think Dubi retired?

 

[Fitzy]

My problem is that rnh at 6m a season is too much for a 3c and potentially blocks chytil as a 2C. He’s not a bad 3C but he’s gonna want a long contract and I don’t see him outperforming a 7 year 6m deal.

He’s been scoring like a top end 2c for several seasons now.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

He’s been scoring like a top end 2c for several seasons now.

so? He's not even playing C and he's riding shotgun to the best player in the world. Any team acquiring him will regret paying him like a "top end 2c" starting day 1

 

[CommaSynapse]

Zibanejad is the real concern for me. If he can't turn it around this year, I hope a proper summer of rest will get him back on track. I'm not even sure of a comparable drop-off. It's points AND the actual play on the ice.

Pulled up this chart @Hockey Outsider posted back in November 2019.

In seasons where a player played 70 games, these are the biggest drop-off in points.

Mika had 75 points in 57 games last year. Right now, he's on pace for 11 points (-64), which would be more than Bill Barber's -57. Again, not an exact comparable because fewer games + COVID, but it doesn't look good.

Player	1st year	2nd year	1st points	2nd points	Drop
Bill Barber	1976	1977	112	55	-57
Dennis Maruk	1982	1983	136	81	-55
Bob MacMillan	1979	1980	108	61	-47
Reggie Leach	1976	1977	91	46	-45
Chuck Lefley	1976	1977	85	41	-44
Phil Esposito	1975	1976	127	83	-44
Sergei Fedorov	1996	1997	107	63	-44
Mats Naslund	1989	1990	84	41	-43
Pete Mahovlich	1976	1977	105	62	-43
Vaclav Nedomansky	1980	1981	74	32	-42
Wayne Gretzky	1991	1992	163	121	-42
Joe Mullen	1989	1990	110	69	-41
Mike Modano	2003	2004	85	44	-41
Andre Boudrias	1975	1976	78	38	-40
Brian MacLellan	1985	1986	85	45	-40
Bryan Trottier	1982	1983	129	89	-40
Jean Pronovost	1976	1977	104	64	-40

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[mas0764]

Kravtsov
DeAngelo
Strome
2022 first (next year's)

for

Eichel

Do it

 

[duhmetreE]

Zibanejad is the real concern for me. If he can't turn it around this year, I hope a proper summer of rest will get him back on track. I'm not even sure of a comparable drop-off. It's points AND the actual play on the ice.

Mika had 75 points in 57 games last year. Right now, he's on pace for 11 points (-64), which would be more than Bill Barber's -57. Again, not an exact comparable because fewer games + COVID, but it doesn't look good.

Player	1st year	2nd year	1st points	2nd points	Drop
Bill Barber	1976	1977	112	55	-57
Dennis Maruk	1982	1983	136	81	-55
Bob MacMillan	1979	1980	108	61	-47
Reggie Leach	1976	1977	91	46	-45
Chuck Lefley	1976	1977	85	41	-44
Phil Esposito	1975	1976	127	83	-44
Sergei Fedorov	1996	1997	107	63	-44
Mats Naslund	1989	1990	84	41	-43
Pete Mahovlich	1976	1977	105	62	-43
Vaclav Nedomansky	1980	1981	74	32	-42
Wayne Gretzky	1991	1992	163	121	-42
Joe Mullen	1989	1990	110	69	-41
Mike Modano	2003	2004	85	44	-41
Andre Boudrias	1975	1976	78	38	-40
Brian MacLellan	1985	1986	85	45	-40
Bryan Trottier	1982	1983	129	89	-40
Jean Pronovost	1976	1977	104	64	-40

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Kravtsov
DeAngelo
Strome
2022 first (next year's)

for

Eichel

Do it

yeah im sure buffalo is running to the phone to accept this generous offer

 

[mas0764]

probably an unpopular opinion but Brendan Smith should be re-signed to a non 4M contract

It's anecdotal but I believe the team shows more resilience when he's in the lineup

On a min deal where he can be buried and be a spare 7th or 8th D? I'm cool with it.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Kravtsov
DeAngelo
Strome
2022 first (next year's)

for

Eichel

Do it

2021 first (top-10 protected)
2022 second
2023 cond second (first rounder if we win the Cup before the 2023 draft)
Vitaly Kravtsov
K'Andre Miller
Ryan Strome (salary purposes)

That's what it would take. I rather go after Barkov

 

[mas0764]

No way they get him without giving up Laf or KK

Seems untrue

 

[Fitzy]

yeah im sure buffalo is running to the phone to accept this generous offer

That's a Rozsival+Zherdev for Heatley level of an insulting offer.

 

[mas0764]

2021 first (top-10 protected)
2022 second
2023 cond second (first rounder if we win the Cup before the 2023 draft)
Vitaly Kravtsov
K'Andre Miller
Ryan Strome (salary purposes)

That's what it would take. I rather go after Barkov

Can I swap out Miller for another non-Lundkvist defensive prospect?

I'll even go Lindgren.

I still don't think he will bring back a mega deal. Not with a $10m contract - no team can afford it.

 

[jay from jersey]

By the way Jack Eichel is starting to play like he could care less. It’s pretty obvious watching him he’s checked out

He’s been like that for the last 2 weeks. Defense is non existent, even their fans see it and are pissed. Kids dying for a change

 

[Fitzy]

He’s been like that for the last 2 weeks. Defense is non existent, even their fans see it and are pissed. Kids dying for a change

Playing like that all season can't possibly help his trade value.

 

[jay from jersey]

I don’t think Howden is a great player but protecting career journeyman Blackwell over Howden would be bad for business

Howden has been better. His offense isn’t there, but he’s quietly done a good job on the forecheck and with Rooney on the PK. Problem is, they both 4th liners. Was hoping howden would step up and be a proper matchup 3c. Hasn’t happened yet though

 

[Cmox]

Zibanejad is the real concern for me. If he can't turn it around this year, I hope a proper summer of rest will get him back on track. I'm not even sure of a comparable drop-off. It's points AND the actual play on the ice.

Pulled up this chart @Hockey Outsider posted back in November 2019.

In seasons where a player played 70 games, these are the biggest drop-off in points.

Mika had 75 points in 57 games last year. Right now, he's on pace for 11 points (-64), which would be more than Bill Barber's -57. Again, not an exact comparable because fewer games + COVID, but it doesn't look good.

Player	1st year	2nd year	1st points	2nd points	Drop
Bill Barber	1976	1977	112	55	-57
Dennis Maruk	1982	1983	136	81	-55
Bob MacMillan	1979	1980	108	61	-47
Reggie Leach	1976	1977	91	46	-45
Chuck Lefley	1976	1977	85	41	-44
Phil Esposito	1975	1976	127	83	-44
Sergei Fedorov	1996	1997	107	63	-44
Mats Naslund	1989	1990	84	41	-43
Pete Mahovlich	1976	1977	105	62	-43
Vaclav Nedomansky	1980	1981	74	32	-42
Wayne Gretzky	1991	1992	163	121	-42
Joe Mullen	1989	1990	110	69	-41
Mike Modano	2003	2004	85	44	-41
Andre Boudrias	1975	1976	78	38	-40
Brian MacLellan	1985	1986	85	45	-40
Bryan Trottier	1982	1983	129	89	-40
Jean Pronovost	1976	1977	104	64	-40

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I love the Gretzky drop off. Those numbers a disgustingly jaw dropping. “f***!He went from 163 to 121 he’s regressing!!!”

 

[gravey9]

I’m certainly not advocating that NYR go after RNH in free agency, but with the league at a flat cap and all these massive packages being discussed for a star center, one wonders if we got the Nuge for around 6 mil a season of Zibanejad, RNH, Chytil isn’t a sufficient trio of centers moving forward. Strome can be moved for cap space.

Of course, that’s contingent on how Zibby finishes the year.

i have to say, in watching Nuge recently, I do not think we should go after him. I think he is skilled no doubt. But he's pretty soft player who at times shy away from contact. He seems like an upgrade over Strome but a similar player. I want a center who will win the board battles against the bigger east coast teams. Not fly by and poke check.

 

[gravey9]

Playing like that all season can't possibly help his trade value.

Why is it okay to get paid that much money and do that? I'll never understand. Unless something else is going on that's related to his health, I think that stinks.

 

[Elliman]

That McDavid package is scary as **** but even then i can’t see edmonton taking it. why anyone would trade McDavid is head scratching.

Kakko, Lafreniere, Fox, Miller, Shestorkin, Zibanejad & 21’ + 22’ first rounders.

Can’t do it. just can’t.

 

[Daves a mess]

If someone told me that Mika can end up with a season like

55gp 4g -11a -15 pts. I'd actually use the word "impossible".