Rumor: Rocky Thompson hired as Asst. Coach

[Ghosts Beer]

40 points?! What.

Common Misconceptions: How Much Should That Forward Score?

What should you expect out of your forwards?

www.pensionplanpuppets.com

Your baseline criteria is "Good" for a 3rd line center and exceptional for wingers and let's be clear the Flyers are not going to be good. I think you need to go back and figure out what production from a 3rd liner looks like.



When your expectations are not based in reality it's a guarantee that those players will fail. He gets to tell himself that he was right when he was never right to begin with. Laughton scored "X amounts" which is completely void of any sort of analysis. Talk about making a terrible argument. Also is this the same Scott Laughton who played when Giroux, Kevin Hayes, and Couturier were out? Let's just ignore all that context.

Yeah, my expectation of “good” for offensive players is that they can slightly outproduce Scott Laughton.

Have we reached the level where at age 23 30 points is supposed to equal “success” for Morgan Frost?

 

[Lindberg]

Yeah, my expectation of “good” for offensive players is that they can slightly outproduce Scott Laughton.

Have we reached the level where at age 23 30 points is supposed to equal “success” for Morgan Frost?

The same guy who played over half his games at 1st or 2nd line TOI? Your barometer for success isn't based in reality. Frost isn't looking good but he hasn't played one full season, hell he only has one season over 20 games.

I'll let you even get a take back and revisit your statement but I'm sure you'd rather likely double down on your expectations when they clearly are so off base it isn't even worth giving the time of day to.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Frost gets punished for playing offensively, and you expect offense?

 

[Hanover Fist]

This team…… Schlitz Schmidts and Ortliebs. PBR in the pressbox

 

[Fight4yourRight]

I’m so happy the ignore button works again. I just see everyone’s messages in response to what I can only assume is another troll/pure straw man argument about Frost.

 

[deadhead]

Given that Laughton over the last three years has scored at a low 2nd line/high 3rd line rate at 5x5, if Frost were to match that he'd be a pretty solid 3C.

Median scoring rate (#45, #135, #225) the last three seasons at 5x5:
#45 2.24
#135 1.80
#225 1.53

Voracek 2.37
Farabee 2.22
TK 2.21
Couts 2.13
JVR 1.95
G 1.86
Atkinson 1.85
Laughton 1.79
Hayes 1.75
Lindblom 1.62
Raffl 1.43
Frost 1.38

Flyers still have 7 forwards who score at a 2nd line level or better.
If Cates, Frost and Tippett can put together a full season where they all score better than > 1.50 pp/60, they'll actually have a pretty good front 9, and JVR will become expendable.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

The same guy who played over half his games at 1st or 2nd line TOI? Your barometer for success isn't based in reality. Frost isn't looking good but he hasn't played one full season, hell he only has one season over 20 games.

I'll let you even get a take back and revisit your statement but I'm sure you'd rather likely double down on your expectations when they clearly are so off base it isn't even worth giving the time of day to.

You telling me 40 points is too much to ask for Frost if he's the 3rd-line center? Then just get rid of him now.

When I say I want 40 points from Frost and Tippett, that doesn't mean they are shutdown type forwards.

They're going to play the PP.

They're going to bounce up the lineup when there are injuries/otherwise.

40 points is a completely fair goal for both.

 

[Beef Invictus]

You telling me 40 points is too much to ask for Frost if he's the 3rd-line center? Then just get rid of him now.

When I say I want 40 points from Frost and Tippett, that doesn't mean they are shutdown type forwards.

They're going to play the PP.

They're going to bounce up the lineup when there are injuries/otherwise.

40 points is a completely fair goal for both.

If there were more talent on the roster, sure. But there's not. Everyone is going to be struggling to produce. Setting these arbitrary lines is a setup for bad evaluations.

 

[Lindberg]

You telling me 40 points is too much to ask for Frost if he's the 3rd-line center? Then just get rid of him now.

When I say I want 40 points from Frost and Tippett, that doesn't mean they are shutdown type forwards.

They're going to play the PP.

They're going to bounce up the lineup when there are injuries/otherwise.

40 points is a completely fair goal for both.

40 points is a pretty lofty goal for a 3rd line center and even more so from a winger. this team has zero game breaking talent.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

40 points is a pretty lofty goal for a 3rd line center and even more so from a winger. this team has zero game breaking talent.

192 players scored at least 40 points last season. It's not asking too much of a heralded prospect such as Frost, who WILL get PP time in addition to having a wide open opportunity at 3C, to hit 40 points.

Has this board implicitly given up on him after hyping him for so long?

And same for Tippett. He was the 11th overall pick. He's going to get ample opportunities to score and should earn PP time. 40 points is not an unreasonable ask.

The opportunities are there for both, and if they can't take advantage, bye bye.

 

[Beef Invictus]

192 players scored at least 40 points last season. It's not asking too much of a heralded prospect such as Frost, who WILL get PP time in addition to having a wide open opportunity at 3C, to hit 40 points.

Has this board implicitly given up on him after hyping him for so long?

And same for Tippett. He was the 11th overall pick. He's going to get ample opportunities to score and should earn PP time. 40 points is not an unreasonable ask.

The opportunities are there for both, and if they can't take advantage, bye bye.

This board didn't do what you claim it did. People in general had his potential ceiling as a 2C. That's ceiling. More likely he'd be a middle six center. He's currently that and with upside to go, though who knows how much upside given how this team works.

You're really big on taking one outlier opinion and pretending everyone believes it.

 

[Lindberg]

192 players scored at least 40 points last season. It's not asking too much of a heralded prospect such as Frost, who WILL get PP time in addition to having a wide open opportunity at 3C, to hit 40 points.

Has this board implicitly given up on him after hyping him for so long?

And same for Tippett. He was the 11th overall pick. He's going to get ample opportunities to score and should earn PP time. 40 points is not an unreasonable ask.

The opportunities are there for both, and if they can't take advantage, bye bye.

Wanna guess what 192 / 6 is ? 32. So on the average yeah it's only a teams top 6 this scores 40 points and that's without doing much analysis. You need to align your expectations with reality. Some teams going to have more than 6 40 point players? Yes and some will have less.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Wanna guess what 192 / 6 is ? 32. So on the average yeah it's only a teams top 6 this scores 40 points and that's without doing much analysis. You need to align your expectations with reality. Are you some teams going to have more than 6 40 point players? Yes and some will have less.

Yeah, and as heralded as Frost was, and Tippett, and with the PP opportunities afforded, they should be able to hit 40 points if they're players. Time is now. If they can't do it, they failed. Move on.

 

[Hanover Fist]

Hype? Are we calling wanting Frost to play over the likes of Nate friggin Thompson because he was and is the better option hype?

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

192 players scored at least 40 points last season. It's not asking too much of a heralded prospect such as Frost, who WILL get PP time in addition to having a wide open opportunity at 3C, to hit 40 points.

Has this board implicitly given up on him after hyping him for so long?

And same for Tippett. He was the 11th overall pick. He's going to get ample opportunities to score and should earn PP time. 40 points is not an unreasonable ask.

The opportunities are there for both, and if they can't take advantage, bye bye.

Your Frost strawman arguments are tiring.

Neither Frost not Tippett are going to get the ice time and/or quality of linemates where 40 points is expected, but it is possible.

Neither will be on PP1, which will probably be one of the worst in the league, anyway. Barring injuries, neither will be in the top 6 at even strength, either.

So, you're already setting a bar that's going to be very difficult to clear, just so you can yell "gotcha" at the Frost "fan boys" if he doesn't clear it.

This is a team where you optimistically set the over/under for wins at 30.5... even granting 15 overtime/SO losses, that's a team that bags 76 points. And you expect 3rd line players with no first unit powerplay time to score 40 points on this team?

2nd line centre, with ample powerplay time, Kevin Hayes, is basically a career 40-something points guy and you expect Frost and Tippet to match or beat his totals from the 3rd/4th line?

Yes, it's time for Frost to progress. Last year he finally got back to playing hockey full time. He's going to have to be better than last year... but to expect that he's just going to explode into a bottom end second liner/top end third liner based on points while playing on THIS team's 3rd/4th line is setting him up to fail.

I have no idea what they have in Tippett, but he had 21 points last year with many of his Florida games in the top 6. He's not going to magically increase his points totals in the bottom six of a lottery team.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Your Frost strawman arguments are tiring.

Neither Frost not Tippett are going to get the ice time and/or quality of linemates where 40 points is expected, but it is possible.

Neither will be on PP1, which will probably be one of the worst in the league, anyway. Barring injuries, neither will be in the top 6 at even strength, either.

So, you're already setting a bar that's going to be very difficult to clear, just so you can yell "gotcha" at the Frost "fan boys" if he doesn't clear it.

This is a team where you optimistically set the over/under for wins at 30.5... even granting 15 overtime/SO losses, that's a team that bags 76 points. And you expect 3rd line players with no first unit powerplay time to score 40 points on this team?

2nd line centre, with ample powerplay time, Kevin Hayes, is basically a career 40-something points guy and you expect Frost and Tippet to match or beat his totals from the 3rd/4th line?

Yes, it's time for Frost to progress. Last year he finally got back to playing hockey full time. He's going to have to be better than last year... but to expect that he's just going to explode into a bottom end second liner/top end third liner based on points while playing on THIS team's 3rd/4th line is setting him up to fail.

I have no idea what they have in Tippett, but he had 21 points last year with many of his Florida games in the top 6. He's not going to magically increase his points totals in the bottom six of a lottery team.

I'm the only optimistic one on this board.

I set the line at 30.5 based on the pessimism of the board, and expect them to surpass it.

But Frost and Tippett are 23 years old now. Highly regarded prospects. Especially Frost on this board (for years). For the Flyers to be a better team than this board predicts, they've got to deliver. It's put up or shut up time. If they completely founder, then we're talking about an under 30.5.

Why make excuses for them in advance? They're 23. It's their time. Just acknowledge that they need to produce and are going to have the opportunities to do so.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

I'm the only optimistic one on this board.

I set the line at 30.5 based on the pessimism of the board, and expect them to surpass it.

But Frost and Tippett are 23 years old now. Highly regarded prospects. Especially Frost on this board (for years). For the Flyers to be a better team than this board predicts, they've got to deliver. It's put up or shut up time. If they completely founder, then we're talking about an under 30.5.

Why make excuses for them in advance? They're 23. It's their time. Just acknowledge that they need to produce and are going to have the opportunities to do so.

Third. Line. Players. Do. Not. Regularly. Score. 40. Points.

They're not going to be top 6 players, so you need to adjust your point total expectations. They can show marked improvement without meeting a certain point total.

I have higher expectations for Frost than I do for Tippett, but I don't expect Frost to score at pace with Hayes.

 

[Lindberg]

I'm the only delusional one on this board.

I set the line at 30.5 based on the pessimism of the board, and expect them to surpass it.

But Frost and Tippett are 23 years old now. Highly regarded prospects. Especially Frost on this board (for years). For the Flyers to be a better team than this board predicts, they've got to deliver. It's put up or shut up time. If they completely founder, then we're talking about an under 30.5.

Why make excuses for them in advance? They're 23. It's their time. Just acknowledge that they need to produce and are going to have the opportunities to do so.

Fixed that for you. You clearly don't live in reality.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Yeah, and as heralded as Frost was, and Tippett, and with the PP opportunities afforded, they should be able to hit 40 points if they're players. Time is now. If they can't do it, they failed. Move on.

This is certainly a ridiculously obstinate refusal to account for a wide range of context and managerial/coaching history and impact. Especially for Tippett, who I'm not high on to begin with. This is too high a standard. If they meet this it would be a huge feat.

Your Frost strawman arguments are tiring.

Neither Frost not Tippett are going to get the ice time and/or quality of linemates where 40 points is expected, but it is possible.

Neither will be on PP1, which will probably be one of the worst in the league, anyway. Barring injuries, neither will be in the top 6 at even strength, either.

So, you're already setting a bar that's going to be very difficult to clear, just so you can yell "gotcha" at the Frost "fan boys" if he doesn't clear it.

This is a team where you optimistically set the over/under for wins at 30.5... even granting 15 overtime/SO losses, that's a team that bags 76 points. And you expect 3rd line players with no first unit powerplay time to score 40 points on this team?

2nd line centre, with ample powerplay time, Kevin Hayes, is basically a career 40-something points guy and you expect Frost and Tippet to match or beat his totals from the 3rd/4th line?

Yes, it's time for Frost to progress. Last year he finally got back to playing hockey full time. He's going to have to be better than last year... but to expect that he's just going to explode into a bottom end second liner/top end third liner based on points while playing on THIS team's 3rd/4th line is setting him up to fail.

I have no idea what they have in Tippett, but he had 21 points last year with many of his Florida games in the top 6. He's not going to magically increase his points totals in the bottom six of a lottery team.

Every forward will need to be overcoming the detrimental presences of Braun, Seeler, Provorov, and Risto to boot.

I'm the only optimistic one on this board.

I set the line at 30.5 based on the pessimism of the board, and expect them to surpass it.

But Frost and Tippett are 23 years old now. Highly regarded prospects. Especially Frost on this board (for years). For the Flyers to be a better team than this board predicts, they've got to deliver. It's put up or shut up time. If they completely founder, then we're talking about an under 30.5.

Why make excuses for them in advance? They're 23. It's their time. Just acknowledge that they need to produce and are going to have the opportunities to do so.

You expect two young players to produce at a second line level playing in the bottom six of a bad team that will only have 30 wins?

That's like expecting a QB to throw for 5,000 yards on a team that only passes 15-20 times a game.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Fixed that for you. You clearly don't live in reality.

Frost needs to hit 40 points for this to be an above.500 team. That's reality. Do you disagree?

 

[Lindberg]

Frost needs to hit 40 points for this to be an above.500 team. That's reality. Do you disagree?

Are you stating if Frost doesn't hit 40 points than this is a reason the team isn't above .500? Why do you keep iterating 40 points, as if that's a feasible goal post? It's not ffs. This roster sucks.

You move the goal posts so often I'm beginning to wonder if you're Stephen A Smith.

This team is gonna suck no matter what. The best offensive player on this team is Couturier. Couturier. He's a 70ish point center and that remains to be answered after his back surgery. If Couturier looks like half the player he was this team is going to be at the basement no matter what.

 

[Rebels57]

I’m so happy the ignore button works again. I just see everyone’s messages in response to what I can only assume is another troll/pure straw man argument about Frost.

Ignore should also block the replies to those on your ignore list.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Are you stating if Frost doesn't hit 40 points than this is a reason the team isn't above .500? Why do you keep iterating 40 points, as if that's a feasible goal post? It's not ffs. This roster sucks.

You move the goal posts so often I'm beginning to wonder if you're Stephen A Smith.

This team is gonna suck no matter what. The best offensive player on this team is Couturier. Couturier. He's a 70ish point center and that remains to be answered after his back surgery. If Couturier looks like half the player he was this team is going to be at the basement no matter what.

Yes. I’m saying Frost needs to hit 40 points for this to be a .500 team.

40 points for Frost should be expected at age 23 with the hype he’s been given.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Yes. I’m saying Frost needs to hit 40 points for this to be a .500 team.

40 points for Frost should be expected at age 23 with the hype he’s been given.

You mean the hype you made up in your head

 

[Lindberg]

You mean the hype you made up in your head

Some how "projection = expected"