The So Long, Farewell Division
Ilya Mikheyev: A big payday is coming, and the Leafs probably aren’t the team willing,
or able, to pay it. Is it a lock that he’s gone? Maybe not. Perhaps Mikheyev doesn’t quite find the market he desires in free agency and the Leafs lure him back with a deal that’s heavy on security (with a lower cap hit). Mikheyev might still want more opportunity than he’s likely to get in Toronto. On the open market, it’s not implausible he’ll command more than $4 million on a long-term deal, and get the top-six role he’s been clamouring for.
Ilya Mikheyev. (Dan Hamilton / USA Today)
Petr Mrazek: We’ve seen some members of the fan base theorize that maybe the Leafs should just bring him back, but
the cap math on that is very difficult. Mrazek has played the equivalent of just 28 games in terms of minutes in the crease over the last two seasons and had a disastrous .888 save percentage this year. It makes no sense to dedicate $3.8 million to such a big wild card in a pivotal season for the franchise. But getting rid of the whole salary could be very difficult, which may lead to retention or even a buyout.
The Restricted but (Likely) Returning Division
Rasmus Sandin: The Sandman was having a breakout campaign until he suffered a tough knee injury that kept him out of the final 20 games of the regular season and all of the playoffs. The only upside to that is it keeps his experience low enough (only 88 career NHL games) that it’s highly possible his next contract is very reasonable. Before he was hurt, Sandin was showing every sign that he can evolve into a top power-play option as well as skate in a team’s top four. That opportunity could arise as soon as this season in Toronto.
Timothy Liljegren: Liljegren’s age-22 season this year was nothing but positive. He established himself as a full-time NHLer, performing admirably in a third-pair role, and even received an audition higher in the lineup. The fact he is a right shot and likely very inexpensive next season makes his return a no-brainer. And you cross your fingers he continues to evolve into a top-four D in the years to come.
Pierre Engvall: Engvall finally
became the player the Leafs were long hoping he could become. The question now is what does that player cost and for how long? Engvall has arbitration rights, so he can wait the Leafs out if he wants. Given his age (he’ll be 26 later this month) and upward trajectory, not to mention Mikheyev’s likely departure, the Leafs are sure to want to keep him around for the foreseeable future. We’re currently
projecting his contract in the range of $1.65 million a season.
Ondrej Kase: Kase is the kind of versatile piece the Leafs need in their middle six. His 82-game pace in year one with the Leafs: 23 goals, 44 points. He ended up on both special-teams units and played meaningful minutes on all four lines. The only real question — still — is health, and whether the Leafs can keep him on the ice in the future. Kase missed a total of 29 games with injury and three more in concussion protocol. His extensive injury history will always mean he’s a
question mark to play a full season.
The Potentially on the Move Division
Alex Kerfoot: Other than one brutal giveaway in the playoffs, Kerfoot had a good season. Heck,
he finished tied for 39th in points at five-on-five among all NHL forwards, ahead of Nylander, Tavares,
Sidney Crosby,
Mathew Barzal and some other shocking names. Kerfoot always seems to land in this division in the offseason, however. This season, there’s even more reason, as he had only one year left on his contract before becoming a UFA for the first time. If you’re going to get something in return rather than lose him for nothing, now might be the time. But how do you replace his minutes and contributions for just $3.5 million?
Colin Blackwell: The underlying numbers, both in the regular season and playoffs, don’t exactly sparkle. Still, Blackwell seemed to make something happen often enough in his limited minutes. He brought some speed, some physicality, and bits of offence to the fourth line. Bringing him back in free agency makes some sense, especially if the Leafs can move him back to the wing, but only at a fourth-liner’s salary.
Ilya Lyubushkin: Why bring back the Russian Bear? He packs a punch the Leafs otherwise lack, and there’s reason to think the team’s development team can boost his skill level. Even slight improvement there will help. Lyubushkin is best suited for a third-pairing role, not the first-pair gig he ended up with this past season. Promoting one of Sandin or Liljegren into the top four could allow that to happen. The only question is how high the asking price will get for a physical, right-shot D — the type of UFAs that tend to get overpaid.
The It Might be Time Division
Wayne Simmonds: This one could be awkward. Simmonds is hugely valued as a leader, role model and culture setter. Yet, he’s past the point of being able to play every night, especially in the playoffs for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations. Simmonds has another year left on his contract at $900K on the cap. In theory, the solution is easy: bury his contract in the minors at no charge on the cap. This isn’t just some guy, though. This is a beloved veteran at the end of an impressive career. Perhaps the Leafs can find him an opportunity to play elsewhere. If not, the hard choice may be necessary.
Wayne Simmonds. (John E. Sokolowski / USA Today)
Justin Holl: He didn’t get enough credit for turning things around in the second half. His playoffs were bumpy in spots, though, and his fit with the Leafs moving forward is uncertain. If he’s going to play in the top four, the Leafs should keep him around for $2 million on the cap. If not, he gets in the way of Liljegren, Sandin and maybe even Lyubushkin, and those cap dollars could (and should) be spent elsewhere.
Jason Spezza: Spezza may decide to retire. But he’s not likely to leave the organization, as he’ll almost certainly be offered a role with the Leafs as a coach or in management. That said, Spezza is five points from 1,000 for his career. He was still a solid contributor in limited minutes on the ice, even in the playoffs, and an inspirational leader off of it. If they can find a way to fit in his modest league minimum cap hit, they should. One wonders if there’s a way he can settle into more of a part-time role, perhaps by spending some time with the Marlies and offering his words of wisdom to the youngsters down there.
The Beats the Hell out of Me Division
Jack Campbell: There’s mutual interest on both sides for a return. But what number works for both sides, after an up-and-down season? Campbell has won a lot of games the past two seasons, and the goalie UFA class is fairly thin, to the point that someone will be willing to make a bet on him as a No. 1. And there are teams like New Jersey who will be desperate to improve in goal. But the Leafs can’t really get into a bidding war given their cap situation.
Campbell’s backstory is as compelling as they come, and he clearly loves playing in Toronto, so perhaps there’s some sort of a compromise to be had. He’ll get more on the open market but will that really be the deciding factor? And how much is too much for Kyle Dubas?
Jake Muzzin: This is another tough one.
We laid out the case for a possible Muzzin trade here, as a way to free up cap space. But he played well during the postseason and brings some key elements that the Leafs blue line will be lacking without him. Now that Giordano has signed, the Leafs are four-deep on left defence, with Rielly, Sandin, Muzzin and Giordano all in need of significant minutes. Sandin could theoretically shift to the right side but will he succeed there? And how much longer can Muzzin provide value at $5.6 million given all of the injuries?
