Speculation: Ranking the RFA Signings

[Gecklund]

The three scenarios:

1) you get him for 4 x 6M (6M AAV) and sign him to long extension during the final year
2) you get him for 4 x 6M (6M AAV) and don't qualify him for 10M after it, he goes UFA
3) you qualify him for 10M and get him effectively for 5 x 6.8M AAV, he goes UFA (or gets extended in the spring)

He won’t go UFA unless there’s a drastic change. Also who knows what the cap is in 5 years, it could easily be up around 100M. You are still getting at least 4 years at an amazing price. He scored 30 goals and had ~0.85 PPG.

 

[CatchyTune]

I understand that clarkson and Horton will be on the LTIR, the only guy you may not bring back is ceci, who says Barrie wants to play in Toronto with that media and his type of play, his buddy bissonnette already said that situation isnt a good fit, but hes goi g to cost 8 mill per, which with his hit now 2.75 blus ceci's 4 doesnt equal 8... so now you have to lose muzzin or Barrie, which hurts the team, dermott may be injured but hes still going to want money and knows he can get it from dubas... Torontos cup window is this season, after that it is shrinking quick, they dont have the ELC co tracts to come in and make a huge difference outside of sandin, and they arent getting and 1st rd picks replenishing the system for the last 2 years

We dont know for certain what Barrie's intentions are, there were preliminary discussions of an 8x8. Ceci(4.5) Muzzin (4) Barries current deal (about 2.8) is enough to fit Barrie's 8. To say a team who's core is in their early to mid 20's window is shrinking is absolutely foolish. Elc's: Sandin, Liljegren, Bracco will be ready as soon as this year, Robertson, Der-Arguchenstev (butchered) down the line and Woll is on track to be a young backup and possibly Andersens successor. I honestly believe you are blinded by your hate for the leafs. You do not want to believe it, but they survived their cap crunch and are absolutely fine

 

[Guffman]

They worry much less than the board does.

Jets fans are always critical of the deals our GM signs as we want good value. It allows you to add/pay for more talent.

I am actually surprised Leafs fans gloss over the excess paid by your GM and are OK with these contracts. It will limit you in adding/paying for help in future years.

I actually want to see the Leafs do well so in that context, what they have done is disappointing. I am glad it didn’t have too much of an impact on our RFAs and what we signed them for.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Jets fans are always critical of the deals our GM signs as we want good value. It allows you to add/pay for more talent.

I am actually surprised Leafs fans gloss over the excess paid by your GM and are OK with these contracts. It will limit you in adding/paying for help in future years.

I actually want to see the Leafs do well so in that context, what they have done is disappointing. I am glad it didn’t have too much of an impact on our RFAs and what we signed them for.

Leafs signed their guys to deals that they were happy with. They don't seem to worry.

 

[FanCos]

Laine is 6.75 AAV, not 6.15 as per OP. A typo, probably.

 

[BruinsBtn]

I put almost zero weight on the salary in the final year. No one is going to walk to free agency like that.

 

[tony d]

Top 5:

1. Mcavoy
2. Point
3. Laine
4. Boeser
5. Connor

 

[tucker3434]

I put almost zero weight on the salary in the final year. No one is going to walk to free agency like that.

Why not?

 

[Dumais]

Typical

 

[Jeff Whelbourn]

We dont know for certain what Barrie's intentions are, there were preliminary discussions of an 8x8. Ceci(4.5) Muzzin (4) Barries current deal (about 2.8) is enough to fit Barrie's 8. To say a team who's core is in their early to mid 20's window is shrinking is absolutely foolish. Elc's: Sandin, Liljegren, Bracco will be ready as soon as this year, Robertson, Der-Arguchenstev (butchered) down the line and Woll is on track to be a young backup and possibly Andersens successor. I honestly believe you are blinded by your hate for the leafs. You do not want to believe it, but they survived their cap crunch and are absolutely fine

Leafs fan rules:
1. Blindly believe everything their organization is doing is the best any organization has ever done.
2. Every one of your players are worth much more than anyone else's AMD everyone wants to sign here.
3. If people have a different point of view then they are leaf haters, only way they would disagree.

Dude I'm an avs fan who lives in the Toronto market, I've had this conversation hundreds of times, indont hate the leafs, I'm annoyed how their fans do these mental gymnastics to convince themselves that when bad things happen with their team and people mention they go on this huge defensive and get behind the stupid choices their front office has made

You may be able to ice a 23 man roster until Hyman and dermott are ready. Then you're probably at 20 man... next year you defense is going to take a big hit, your bottom six players arent going to be good because they are all players on elc's and league minimums. Once you take sandin out of the prospect pool it looks pretty bleak, bracco has set a record by leafs fans for traded away aimlessly in trade offers so who knows where he ends up...

So yes you 20-22 year olds are locked up but you supporting cast has and will take a significant blow in the years to come which will diminish you window to win

 

[kylbaz]

The best was Leafs fans saying how Matthews and Marner would take team friendly deals because they wanted to stay in Toronto... then they signed. lol

 

[Xanner]

Leafs fan rules:
1. Blindly believe everything their organization is doing is the best any organization has ever done.
2. Every one of your players are worth much more than anyone else's AMD everyone wants to sign here.
3. If people have a different point of view then they are leaf haters, only way they would disagree.

Dude I'm an avs fan who lives in the Toronto market, I've had this conversation hundreds of times, indont hate the leafs, I'm annoyed how their fans do these mental gymnastics to convince themselves that when bad things happen with their team and people mention they go on this huge defensive and get behind the stupid choices their front office has made

You may be able to ice a 23 man roster until Hyman and dermott are ready. Then you're probably at 20 man... next year you defense is going to take a big hit, your bottom six players arent going to be good because they are all players on elc's and league minimums. Once you take sandin out of the prospect pool it looks pretty bleak, bracco has set a record by leafs fans for traded away aimlessly in trade offers so who knows where he ends up...

So yes you 20-22 year olds are locked up but you supporting cast has and will take a significant blow in the years to come which will diminish you window to win

I get that dubas did a poor job with how he handled these negotiations, the Leafs overpaid all of their young players by about 2.8 million combined, 1 mill for matthews, 4ook for nylander and about 1.4 for marner, you honestly think that overpaying their young stars by about 2.8 million is going to diminish their window? A bit dramatic no?

 

[CatchyTune]

Leafs fan rules:
1. Blindly believe everything their organization is doing is the best any organization has ever done.
2. Every one of your players are worth much more than anyone else's AMD everyone wants to sign here.
3. If people have a different point of view then they are leaf haters, only way they would disagree.

Dude I'm an avs fan who lives in the Toronto market, I've had this conversation hundreds of times, indont hate the leafs, I'm annoyed how their fans do these mental gymnastics to convince themselves that when bad things happen with their team and people mention they go on this huge defensive and get behind the stupid choices their front office has made

You may be able to ice a 23 man roster until Hyman and dermott are ready. Then you're probably at 20 man... next year you defense is going to take a big hit, your bottom six players arent going to be good because they are all players on elc's and league minimums. Once you take sandin out of the prospect pool it looks pretty bleak, bracco has set a record by leafs fans for traded away aimlessly in trade offers so who knows where he ends up...

So yes you 20-22 year olds are locked up but you supporting cast has and will take a significant blow in the years to come which will diminish you window to win

They may have to ice a smaller roster but with the marlies in toronto someone can easily come up. You say the defence will take a "big hit" but all they are slated to lose is Muzzin. Their bottom 6 is not all elc's and minimums, Kerfoot, Kapanen, and possibly Johnnson will be the 3rd line. And they are all signed 3-4 years. Thats locked down. After Sandin the leafs have Liljegren who should be able to step in. Just because Bracco is in hfboard trade proposals doesnt take away from the fact he could very well be a solid nhler very soon. As soon as now really, but the rw depth is too strong. I dont see our supporting cast taking "significant blows", and with such a young core, the window of contention will be open for the foreseeable future. However I really appreciate the concern you have for the team. Thanks for keeping an eye out but we have it handled

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

By fitting absolutely everyone into it, and locking their young Superstars all up for years?

I know, right?

If it works kudos to them and we'll wait and see what they do.
For me if they can break through and win some series and get to a Conference Final then you can't really complain.

The bumps I see coming for them are when Andersen and Rielly need to be re-signed. They will lose other D pieces before then but all good competing cap teams do.

Winning the Cup with the big 4 Forward cap hits becomes more difficult once Rielly needs a substantial raise. But he has 3 or so years left.

Obviously they would be better off with a longer contract for Matthews and less overall AAV for him and Marner. But this truly is an experiment. Their contracts are outliers compared to everyone else but that doesn't mean it for sure won't work.

We have to wait and see.

 

[Skin Tape Session]

How does anyone not have Marner dead last? Toronto has really made a disaster of their salary cap.

"How does someone on the main boards not have Marner last" is what I think you were really trying to say

 

[Balthazar]

I put almost zero weight on the salary in the final year. No one is going to walk to free agency like that.

Really? I easily see Tkachuk taking his 9M QO on year 4 and then go straight to St. Louis as a UFA on year 5.

Point could walk or force a trade too. He isn't going to get underpaid his whole career.

If anything, a few of these bridge deals are poison pills. Teams with cap issues kicking the can down the road to deal with (even bigger) problems later.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

I understand that clarkson and Horton will be on the LTIR, the only guy you may not bring back is ceci, who says Barrie wants to play in Toronto with that media and his type of play, his buddy bissonnette already said that situation isnt a good fit, but hes goi g to cost 8 mill per, which with his hit now 2.75 blus ceci's 4 doesnt equal 8... so now you have to lose muzzin or Barrie, which hurts the team, dermott may be injured but hes still going to want money and knows he can get it from dubas... Torontos cup window is this season, after that it is shrinking quick, they dont have the ELC co tracts to come in and make a huge difference outside of sandin, and they arent getting and 1st rd picks replenishing the system for the last 2 years

I'll play your game. Marner and Matthews arent going anywhere, I think we'd agree there. So I know this may be shocking but trading is an option. Nylander, Kapanen and Johnsson could be moved. Dermott needs a raise sure, but it probably wont be anything crazy on a short deal. You let Ceci walk, bring in ELCs like Liljegren and Sandin. Muzzin or Barrie, you keep Muzzin. Go into next season with Liljegren, Muzzin, Dermott, Rielly etc. And I know this may be an another shocker but there are decent options if you lose a Kapanen or a Nylander or Johnsson. Guys like Moore, Mikheyev and Bracco may not be as talented as those mentioned before but they're much cheaper options. I understand your wet dream is to see the Leafs crash and burn but despite the lack of first round picks, a mediocre prospect pool and cap problems, the team will still be pretty talented. Teams like Pittsburgh and Chicago still found a way but for some reason people like you cant wrap your head around the fact that it is possible to remain competitive despite making moves that you wouldn't prefer.

 

[Lempo]

Why not?

The QO will be full in base salary. That's a bad deal for season 22/23 as the CBA ends in 2022 and 22/23 may be a lockout season, in which case base salaries won't get paid for the lockout duration.

A bridged player and his agent will see the benefit of agreeing to an extension when negotiating for one in the final year of the bridge contract.

A hefty QO is a good backstop and gives leverage, but as an actual contract it would be sub-optimal.

Also the new CBA may at the time look to be changing for worse in a way that you can get better terms when extending while this current CBA is still in effect.

 

[tucker3434]

The QO will be full in base salary. That's a bad deal for season 22/23 as the CBA ends in 2022 and 22/23 may be a lockout season, in which case base salaries won't get paid for the lockout duration.

A bridged player and his agent will see the benefit of agreeing to an extension when negotiating for one in the final year of the bridge contract.

A hefty QO is a good backstop and gives leverage, but as an actual contract it would be sub-optimal.

Also the new CBA may at the time look to be changing for worse in a way that you can get better terms when extending while this current CBA is still in effect.

Thats a good point. I hadn’t thought about the timing of the CBA’s expiration.

Still, I wouldn’t have expected him to actually sign the QO either way, just use it as leverage. Regardless of the CBA, I think he will and will end up as one of the higher AAV’s of this group on his next deal.

 

[Jeff Whelbourn]

I'll play your game. Marner and Matthews arent going anywhere, I think we'd agree there. So I know this may be shocking but trading is an option. Nylander, Kapanen and Johnsson could be moved. Dermott needs a raise sure, but it probably wont be anything crazy on a short deal. You let Ceci walk, bring in ELCs like Liljegren and Sandin. Muzzin or Barrie, you keep Muzzin. Go into next season with Liljegren, Muzzin, Dermott, Rielly etc. And I know this may be an another shocker but there are decent options if you lose a Kapanen or a Nylander or Johnsson. Guys like Moore, Mikheyev and Bracco may not be as talented as those mentioned before but they're much cheaper options. I understand your wet dream is to see the Leafs crash and burn but despite the lack of first round picks, a mediocre prospect pool and cap problems, the team will still be pretty talented. Teams like Pittsburgh and Chicago still found a way but for some reason people like you cant wrap your head around the fact that it is possible to remain competitive despite making moves that you wouldn't prefer.

[MOD]

Chicago: best players where on team friendly deals 6 mill for 6 years, able to surround their core with expensive talent.
Pitts: Crosby leagues biggest hometown discount, somehow traded their nobodies for big adds that helped them win.

I'm surprised you post didnt end with "wow man you are correct" as you've proved my point... talking about trading nylander and kapanen, are you trading them for better players for less money? What GM would do that... let ceci walk, Barrie walk, and keep muzzin, seems like losing 2 talented nhl defenseman to replace with prospects or ahl guys, who knows if lindgren will be ready, hes not now, doesnt make the team better...

Thanks for coming out

 

[Spilot23]

Boy do people know what ainec means anymore around here. Eichel and Matthews are as closer as they can be so Matthews = Eichel to me. I would say Larkin > Nylander right now until proven otherwise. Marner might be a little better right now but Aho hasn't the luxury of playing with players like Tavares while also playing center so I would probably have Marner > Aho right now though.

Indeed you had to pay more because it all started when Leafs paid Matthews that ridicule money. As good as he is I think Dubas had every leverage to not sign him that contract. If he did I'm pretty sure he could've done the same with Marner. But hey if you guys win the Stanley Cup at least once everyone will forget about those salaries

 

[Torontoborn]

Actually all are pretty close (except for the Leafs).....I like Aho and McAvoy the best. At lower end Deangelo signing at 925,000 for a cap stapped team was really the only contract the Rangers had.

The Leafs with the highest paid management team somehow paid:
Nylander 7m when Larkin had signed for 6.1.
Matthews for 11.643 X 5 when Eichel at 10m X 8 was about. a comparable.
Aho and Marner had identical last two seasons in stats and value....8.5m X 5 compared to 10.9 X 6

So now the Leafs will be forced to go with a 21 man roster or trade a good forward in order to gain cap space. Not a winning thought just because the Leafs thought it was wise to set the precedent of signing their RFAs to UFA contracts.

Thanks for the laugh! Remember why Aho signed for that, can't even compare the 2.

 

[ER89]

Haha yes it is

Look no on will deny marner's contract is shit but our cap situation is not messed. Unless of course you think you are smarter than pridham re: the cap which i highly, highly doubt.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

[MOD]

Chicago: best players where on team friendly deals 6 mill for 6 years, able to surround their core with expensive talent.
Pitts: Crosby leagues biggest hometown discount, somehow traded their nobodies for big adds that helped them win.

I'm surprised you post didnt end with "wow man you are correct" as you've proved my point... talking about trading nylander and kapanen, are you trading them for better players for less money? What GM would do that... let ceci walk, Barrie walk, and keep muzzin, seems like losing 2 talented nhl defenseman to replace with prospects or ahl guys, who knows if lindgren will be ready, hes not now, doesnt make the team better...

Thanks for coming out

[MOD] no doubt. Bring up the Pens and Hawks contracts and fail to mention where the cap was at the time. What percentage of the cap were those contracts at the time vs where Matthews or Marner are now. If you could comprehend what I was saying, you'd understand that I'm talking about moving a Nylander for a cheaper option that may not put up the same amount of points, but it's close enough. Its moving expensive assets for cheaper ones. But this is going over your head. Allowing one of Muzzin or Barrie walk is the reality of the cap. It's not about screwing up the cap, it's about the fact that it's almost impossible to keep 3 expensive dmen. How many teams, even ones with cap space, can afford Muzzin and Barrie and Rielly and 3 other dmen? If you can pencil in 3 or 4 great defenders you're almost always gonna have to give at least one up within a few years. It's called a cap. Thanks for coming out.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Don't know how you can say Marner is greater than Aho. Identical stats and probably on ice value in the past two years. Looks like LeafNation fanatics have to justify the premium prices paid by MLSE.
Larkin and Nylander it ain't close for on ice value.
Even 10m X 8 Eichel might have been an overpayment. Then the Leafs pay 16% more for three less years of term for Matthews. Ain't no way Matthews should be paid the 2nd highest player in the league. You could argue he was the fifth best Leaf last season behind Tavares, Marner, Reilly and Andersen.