Confirmed with Link: Rangers sign K'Andre Miller

[bobbop]

I think a more logical explanation may be that he got bored with school, unmotivated by a troubled coaching staff and caught with his mind in a different place. He may surprise us all.

 

[Tawnos]

I think a more logical explanation may be that he got bored with school, unmotivated by a troubled coaching staff and caught with his mind in a different place. He may surprise us all.

And yet, reasonable explanations involving player psychology and certain Swedish or Russian kids don’t fly. I can’t in good conscience allow this one to.

 

[Mikos87]

There is definitely truth to the narrative that K'Andre is raw and needs time to develop, but sometimes I feel like it gets overblown here.

Statistically, he was fantastic in the NCAA:

- Mitch Brown shared this analysis (credit to @GoAwayStaal for posting first) showing that Miller's tranistion defense was literally off the chart.





- EP Rinkside tracked him in the NCAA his freshman year and found he had a 65% Corsi, which again is off the charts good (for comparison's sake, the best in the NHL is 60%)

So the stats offer pretty compelling data points that he was too good for the NCAA, at least in terms of transition defense and driving play.

I've also watched him play 5-6x, both at the WJSS and at Wisconsin, this year and generally thought he was really good and, at times, dominant.

So when I hear people say he's not ready to leave the NCAA because he's a huge project and he's really raw, sometimes it feels to me like they are saying he has been a bad player at the NCAA level and I 100% do not think that was the case.

What I do think is true is that, in order for him to become an NHL player, he needs to improve his defensive positioning, particularly in terms of 1) his positional play in the D Zone and 2) the consistency of his judgment about when to be aggressive and when to be conservative. So, I also think people who are penciling him into the NHL starting line up for next year are getting ahead of themselves. For me, the truth is somewhere in between.

Personally, I think Hartford would be a better place than Wisconsin for him to develop those skills. Both of those things depend on having teammates who cover their responsibilities and provide support, and that was not the case at Wisconsin this year. How is K'Andre supposed to learn defensive positioning when he regularly gets burned even when he's in the right position because his teammates haven't covered their positions? Then, on top of that, he'll also get more reps, better coaching, and be able to exclusively focus on hockey in Hartford.

I also think it's really tough to say how long it will take him to develop those skills. Generally, development isn't a straight line but consists of leaps and stagnant periods. That's been true with K'Andre, who took a huge leap from his pre-draft year to post-draft year when he almost doubled his scoring rate while moving up a league, and then seemed to stagnate from his first post-draft year to his second post-draft year. I could see him taking a leap in a better environment with more reps in Hartford next year or I could see him following a more gradual learning process in Hartford that takes a few years. The key, I think, is not having really firmly set expectations, but just sitting back and letting him develop at his own pace. What makes him such an exciting to prospect for me is that he's already a really good player AND he still has a ton of room to improve.

Great post. This isn't a new trend for Key. He's dominated those stat ranks in the USNDP and USHL during his pre-draft year. I'm not a Corsi guy by any stretch of the imagination. Those stats represent somewhere between 7-8% of observations in a hockey game. So I for one do not draw conclusions from shot attempt metrics.

But you're sharing some other observation points that are very insightful and reflect aspects of the position that align with the role a defenseman plays. So kudos on that.

I think it's been three years in a row where Key was in the upper tier of some of those metrics (zone exits, break-ups) among his peer group.

To me it's all about decision making with him, if he can defend well, and not make mistakes, he's going to play a lot sooner than people expect. I do not foresee a lot of offense from him for the next 3-4 years. But I do expect him to be a part of a winning formula. I think his game will translate into the pros better than in amateur. This is a very blue collar guy who isn't afraid of physical play or blocking a shot.

 

[UnSandvich]

Oh, shit we got fancy stats now?

*boards hype train*

Funnily enough, that was actually what made me want the Rangers to draft Miller. Pre-draft, someone pointed out Mitch Brown's CHL comparison tool thingy, and boy oh boy did he excel there. He was 62nd percentile or higher for every single measured category in the measured sample size, and more than half of those were 93rd percentile or better. That included a 100th percentile rating for controlled entry prevention and a 98th percentile rating for controlled exit percentage

Tableau Public

 

[Kendo]

Our 3 best Dmen are all righties.

We would all love to have Lindgren as our #3LD forever.

Miller is at the top of the list for "possible top pair." He has the potential to do unprecedented things in the AHL, and I want to say that his floor is to be "a Lindgren" that you "would want to have on your 3rd pair."

If we don't transition Tony D to LD and open up an opportunity for Lundkvist, then Robertson could possibly grab hold of that last LD slot if Rykov, Tarmo, et al don't seize it.

(Staal is a WARRIOR that no one could ever guess to suffer such misfortune, and Smitty is a vErSaTiLe vet that I like a lot, but should have never been resigned...buy them both out, IMO.)

VERY comfortable on D anyway. We could hypothetically "take a year off" from drafting any. LOVE that we signed KM.

 

[pblawr]

Dude those college stats are f*cking unbelievable.

Can anyone get a hold of Foxys to see how they compare ?

Love this kid, excited that he's so confident and hope he shines in the A. I wanna see the Krav-K'Andre connection !!

IIRC Fox had other worldly numbers. Like 70% CF and 50+% break ups in his Jr Season. I don't know about the controlled entries but they were probably pretty damn good too.

I hope we get to see K'Andre and Nils spend a ton of time together and perhaps make the jump up to play on our 3rd pair together.

@GoAwayStaal is pretty much dead on. Fox had a 70% GF % (I can't find corsi), almost 50% break-up rate, 40% controlled entry rate, and 80% controlled exit rate. Miller's micro stats (65% corsi, 46% breakup rate, and 80% controlled exit rate) are almost identical to Fox's despite almost completely opposite styles. Obviously, Miller didn't put up a point and a half per game while doing it, but he was also a year younger and I think most people would agree that Miller faced tougher competition in the Big 10 than Fox faced in the ECAC.

@pblawr thank you for that. Your posts are always a must-read for me.

Thanks, @egelband . I really appreciate it.

 

[aufheben]

Funnily enough, that was actually what made me want the Rangers to draft Miller. Pre-draft, someone pointed out Mitch Brown's CHL comparison tool thingy, and boy oh boy did he excel there. He was 62nd percentile or higher for every single measured category in the measured sample size, and more than half of those were 93rd percentile or better. That included a 100th percentile rating for controlled entry prevention and a 98th percentile rating for controlled exit percentage

Tableau Public

Howden's goodness kind of annoys me w/r/t his present badness. Maybe he'll turn into something one day. #keephopealive

 

[egelband]

Howden's goodness kind of annoys me w/r/t his present badness. Maybe he'll turn into something one day. #keephopealive
View attachment 336143

I see him playing more and more heads up - noticeably so. He is seeing things and trying to do them. But they’re not quite connecting. But I think the seeing and the trying are the hardest part. The passes will start connecting. And his linemates are improving too. I’m optimistic. I don’t think he’s fast or strong enough to be a top six center. But I still think he’s going to be ok.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Howden's goodness kind of annoys me w/r/t his present badness. Maybe he'll turn into something one day. #keephopealive
View attachment 336143

He’s legit been better recently and flashing potential of what he was projected to become. I think we all forget that he’s still a young kid like Chytil, Fox, and Gauthier, just because he hasn’t been good in his first few years, doesn’t mean he’ll suck forever.

 

[Edge]

There’s very little other than height maybe that id compare between Marc Staal and KAndre Miller

I’m with you.

I am...very confused...by the comparison.

 

[aufheben]

He’s legit been better recently and flashing potential of what he was projected to become. I think we all forget that he’s still a young kid like Chytil, Fox, and Gauthier, just because he hasn’t been good in his first few years, doesn’t mean he’ll suck forever.

I mean he has size, plays like a crash-test dummy with 100%, so hopefully he can become a legit 4th liner, God forbid an actual 3rd liner...that'd be huge.

 

[Ola]

There is definitely truth to the narrative that K'Andre is raw and needs time to develop, but sometimes I feel like it gets overblown here.

Statistically, he was fantastic in the NCAA:

- Mitch Brown shared this analysis (credit to @GoAwayStaal for posting first) showing that Miller's tranistion defense was literally off the chart.





- EP Rinkside tracked him in the NCAA his freshman year and found he had a 65% Corsi, which again is off the charts good (for comparison's sake, the best in the NHL is 60%)

So the stats offer pretty compelling data points that he was too good for the NCAA, at least in terms of transition defense and driving play.

I've also watched him play 5-6x, both at the WJSS and at Wisconsin, this year and generally thought he was really good and, at times, dominant.

So when I hear people say he's not ready to leave the NCAA because he's a huge project and he's really raw, sometimes it feels to me like they are saying he has been a bad player at the NCAA level and I 100% do not think that was the case.

What I do think is true is that, in order for him to become an NHL player, he needs to improve his defensive positioning, particularly in terms of 1) his positional play in the D Zone and 2) the consistency of his judgment about when to be aggressive and when to be conservative. So, I also think people who are penciling him into the NHL starting line up for next year are getting ahead of themselves. For me, the truth is somewhere in between.

Personally, I think Hartford would be a better place than Wisconsin for him to develop those skills. Both of those things depend on having teammates who cover their responsibilities and provide support, and that was not the case at Wisconsin this year. How is K'Andre supposed to learn defensive positioning when he regularly gets burned even when he's in the right position because his teammates haven't covered their positions? Then, on top of that, he'll also get more reps, better coaching, and be able to exclusively focus on hockey in Hartford.

I also think it's really tough to say how long it will take him to develop those skills. Generally, development isn't a straight line but consists of leaps and stagnant periods. That's been true with K'Andre, who took a huge leap from his pre-draft year to post-draft year when he almost doubled his scoring rate while moving up a league, and then seemed to stagnate from his first post-draft year to his second post-draft year. I could see him taking a leap in a better environment with more reps in Hartford next year or I could see him following a more gradual learning process in Hartford that takes a few years. The key, I think, is not having really firmly set expectations, but just sitting back and letting him develop at his own pace. What makes him such an exciting to prospect for me is that he's already a really good player AND he still has a ton of room to improve.

Great stuff!

I think K'Andre is one of the most underrated prospect in hockey. Of course it comes with the territory that there might be some kids I am not aware of, of course, but I think he has taken a ton of guilt by association that absolutely do not have to be caused by him.

 

[nyr2k2]

I’m with you.

I am...very confused...by the comparison.

There wasn't much of a comparison between the two players. Bob said they followed a similar development curve to this point. Everyone else said it would be great if Miller had a career like Marc Staal. I compared their excellent stick work, which may have been the only actual comparison. I don't think anyone is trying to draw parallels between their styles or abilities.

 

[The New Russian Five]

There is definitely truth to the narrative that K'Andre is raw and needs time to develop, but sometimes I feel like it gets overblown here.

Statistically, he was fantastic in the NCAA:

- Mitch Brown shared this analysis (credit to @GoAwayStaal for posting first) showing that Miller's tranistion defense was literally off the chart.





- EP Rinkside tracked him in the NCAA his freshman year and found he had a 65% Corsi, which again is off the charts good (for comparison's sake, the best in the NHL is 60%)

So the stats offer pretty compelling data points that he was too good for the NCAA, at least in terms of transition defense and driving play.

I've also watched him play 5-6x, both at the WJSS and at Wisconsin, this year and generally thought he was really good and, at times, dominant.

So when I hear people say he's not ready to leave the NCAA because he's a huge project and he's really raw, sometimes it feels to me like they are saying he has been a bad player at the NCAA level and I 100% do not think that was the case.

What I do think is true is that, in order for him to become an NHL player, he needs to improve his defensive positioning, particularly in terms of 1) his positional play in the D Zone and 2) the consistency of his judgment about when to be aggressive and when to be conservative. So, I also think people who are penciling him into the NHL starting line up for next year are getting ahead of themselves. For me, the truth is somewhere in between.

Personally, I think Hartford would be a better place than Wisconsin for him to develop those skills. Both of those things depend on having teammates who cover their responsibilities and provide support, and that was not the case at Wisconsin this year. How is K'Andre supposed to learn defensive positioning when he regularly gets burned even when he's in the right position because his teammates haven't covered their positions? Then, on top of that, he'll also get more reps, better coaching, and be able to exclusively focus on hockey in Hartford.

I also think it's really tough to say how long it will take him to develop those skills. Generally, development isn't a straight line but consists of leaps and stagnant periods. That's been true with K'Andre, who took a huge leap from his pre-draft year to post-draft year when he almost doubled his scoring rate while moving up a league, and then seemed to stagnate from his first post-draft year to his second post-draft year. I could see him taking a leap in a better environment with more reps in Hartford next year or I could see him following a more gradual learning process in Hartford that takes a few years. The key, I think, is not having really firmly set expectations, but just sitting back and letting him develop at his own pace. What makes him such an exciting to prospect for me is that he's already a really good player AND he still has a ton of room to improve.

Can someone explain to me the difference between a controlled exit and a possession retaining exit? Sounds like it is the same thing to me.

 

[Edge]

There wasn't much of a comparison between the two players. Bob said they followed a similar development curve to this point. Everyone else said it would be great if Miller had a career like Marc Staal. I compared their excellent stick work, which may have been the only actual comparison. I don't think anyone is trying to draw parallels between their styles or abilities.

Yeah, not really seeing the development curve portion to be honest with ya.

 

[Edge]

Great stuff!

I think K'Andre is one of the most underrated prospect in hockey. Of course it comes with the territory that there might be some kids I am not aware of, of course, but I think he has taken a ton of guilt by association that absolutely do not have to be caused by him.

I don't think anyone is down on him at all. I think if anything, some of this has been good for posters to see because this board was getting very far ahead of itself.

I feel like expectations for Miller can now be a little more realistic and hopefully we hold Miller to a fair standard.

 

[bobbop]

Yeah, not really seeing the development curve portion to be honest with ya.

Staal’s second year back at Sudbury was lousy, until the playoffs. That was the point of my original post, nothing further.

 

[Ola]

I don't think anyone is down on him at all. I think if anything, some of this has been good for posters to see because this board was getting very far ahead of itself.

I feel like expectations for Miller can now be a little more realistic and hopefully we hold Miller to a fair standard.

I’ll be disappointed if he isn’t a top 20 D in the NHL when he is 28-30. Sure, first year might be a little slow maybe, but that is my hopes for him.

 

[Edge]

I’ll be disappointed if he isn’t a top 20 D in the NHL when he is 28-30. Sure, first year might be a little slow maybe, but that is my hopes for him.

I definitely think his top ceiling is in that ballpark. The tools are there, though they might take time to fully mature.

The plus side with Miller is that when it comes to hockey, he's described by many as being a sponge. So that could certainly help his trajectory.

I'd love to be surprised by him shooting through the ranks and being an impact player sooner. That would be fantastic. However, I'm "prepared" for the journey to take a little while. If we can stay patient, and Miller can keep progressing, the wait could be totally worth it.

 

[aufheben]

I definitely think his top ceiling is in that ballpark. The tools are there, though they might take time to fully mature.

The plus side with Miller is that when it comes to hockey, he's described by many as being a sponge. So that could certainly help his trajectory.

I'd love to be surprised by him shooting through the ranks and being an impact player sooner. That would be fantastic. However, I'm "prepared" for the journey to take a little while. If we can stay patient, and Miller can keep progressing, the wait could be totally worth it.

For reals?

 

[egelband]

I love the number 19 on a defenseman. Obviously the Larry Robinson angle. But it just looks sharp. I hope he keeps it.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I love the number 19 on a defenseman. Obviously the Larry Robinson angle. But it just looks sharp. I hope he keeps it.

Well, I’ve got bad news for you if you want him to wear it for the Rangers

 

[will1066]

I love the number 19 on a defenseman. Obviously the Larry Robinson angle. But it just looks sharp. I hope he keeps it.

Not 18?

 

[Profet]

I love the number 19 on a defenseman. Obviously the Larry Robinson angle. But it just looks sharp. I hope he keeps it.

He's going to need a very long ladder for that number.

 

[Irishguy42]

Not 18?

Can't wear a number that will be up in the MSG rafters eventually.