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Rangers Prospect Poll: #21 Prospect (TIE BREAKER)

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#21 Prospect (TIE BREAKER)

  • Total voters
    71
  • Poll closed .
This will definitely be the last year we see Boo here. Either he makes the team or he really drops off the map as a prospect.
 
Crazy how polarizing a prospect Boo is. People either rate him or don't even have him on the board.
 
Boo really isn’t a prospect to me anymore because I think he’s about to lose that status this season. I think he has the skillset to fill a 4th line role perfectly, which is what I’m expecting to see from him.

I’m going with Pajuniemi because of his scoring track record and upside.
 
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Boo, for all the reasons I've stated in past threads.

Pajuniemi seems like he may have some upside, but he's a ways away. Lot of unknowns about him.
 
Boo should be on the big club this season and he should be able to carve out an NHL career as a 4th liner due to his speed and size (also position he plays).

At this point in the rankings I'd go with him over a prospect this just picked in a later round who is a ways from even coming over here.
 
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Chris Drurys Weekend said:
Crazy how polarizing a prospect Boo is. People either rate him or don't even have him on the board.
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Yup, at this point people either see him sticking in the NHL as a 4th liner somewhere, or have seen him enough to come to the conclusion he just isn't an NHL player, especially turning 25 this season. I'm obviously on the later of the two choices and don't see him making it in the NHL which is why I really don't have him on my list.

I feel like it was the same with Hrivik over the last few years who I never thought would be an NHL player while a lot of posters said he's definitely a 4th liner, just maybe not with the Rangers. He playing in the KHL now.
 
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Pajuniemi
Very young and played decent in Liiga and I've read that he was a player that seemed to get better every game. I like Boo, but he's 24 and has a shot to play some bottom 6. Paj is the better prospect.
 
NYR713 said:
Pajuniemi
Very young and played decent in Liiga and I've read that he was a player that seemed to get better every game. I like Boo, but he's 24 and has a shot to play some bottom 6. Paj is the better prospect.
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It depends on what you value more, ceiling or floor. Nieves has a higher floor, but Pajuniemi has a higher ceiling. Nieves has a better chance to become an NHL regular, but Pajuniemi has the potential to be a better player
 
Yes he has potential, but the odds are against him ever making the NHL. Boo will likely be a regular 4th liner.

Now if Pajuniemi does make it over, he will be the better player due to his skillset. Odds are against him though.
 
UAGoalieGuy said:
Yes he has potential, but the odds are against him ever making the NHL. Boo will likely be a regular 4th liner.

Now if Pajuniemi does make it over, he will be the better player due to his skillset. Odds are against him though.
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Yeah, so you are going for likelihood while others go for potential.
 
Amazing Kreiderman said:
Yeah, so you are going for likelihood while others go for potential.
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Earlier in this I'd go with potential. This late in the game, with who is left, going with who has the better chance of actually playing in the NHL is my choice. There is a much better chance of Pajuniemi not making it then him hitting his potential
 
Amazing Kreiderman said:
It depends on what you value more, ceiling or floor. Nieves has a higher floor, but Pajuniemi has a higher ceiling. Nieves has a better chance to become an NHL regular, but Pajuniemi has the potential to be a better player
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When we start talking about bottom six guys, I don't think their ceilings justify having much lower floors.

Completely theoretical numbers of course, but an example of my thought process:
Pajuniemi: 20% chance of being a 35-point player = a value of 7
Nieves: 60% chance of being a 20-point player = a value of 12

Boo scored at almost a 0.33P/GP clip this year in the NHL; I can't see any reason to take Paju over him, even with the slightly higher ceiling.
 
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The Crypto Guy said:
Yup, at this point people either see him sticking in the NHL as a 4th liner somewhere, or have seen him enough to come to the conclusion he just isn't an NHL player, especially turning 25 this season. I'm obviously on the later of the two choices and don't see him making it in the NHL which is why I really don't have him on my list.

I feel like it was the same with Hrivik over the last few years who I never thought would be an NHL player while a lot of posters said he's definitely a 4th liner, just maybe not with the Rangers. He playing in the KHL now.
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I like Nieves a whole lot more than I liked Hrivik. They are similar players though in the sense that neither one of them has much in the way of offensive creativity. That said the reason I like Boo a lot more than Marek is because he's a much superior skater to Hrivik in just about every way. Marek was always an average skater at best and in today's NHL a forward who can combine size and speed with some defensive acumen has pretty much everything he needs to be at worst a 4th line player. Boo has those qualifications.
 
Personally, I don't value prospects based on the odds of them making the NHL, I value them based on the odds of them exceeding NHL replacement value. If a guy like Nieves makes the NHL, but is never materially better than the 10 guys you can sign for the league minimum every offseason, that just doesn't seem like it's worth a lot to me. It seems to me like prospects only have value to the extent they become better than the guys you can sign for the league minimum every offseason, ie a top 3 line forward or a top 4 defenseman. I don't think Boo has that potential, but I think Pajuniemi does. So personally, I value Pajuniemi ahead of Boo because I think he has the potential to exceed replacement value while Boo doesn't, even though the odds of Boo making the NHL are much higher.

Conversely, I think about it like this. In voting for guys like Ragnarsson, Pajuniemi, Keane, Barron, and Sjalin, I think you're hoping that one of them turns into a top 3 line forward or top 4 defensemen. With guys like Boo, Gilmour, Meskanen, Lindqvist, and Lettieri, you might get 3 of them in the NHL but all of them would be 4th liners. So what would you rather have, one player like Kevin Hayes or 3 players like Paul Carey, Peter Holland, and Matt Beleskey? Personally, I think the value of one guy like Hayes is dramatic enough relative to the value of 3 guys like Carey, that I prefer the possibility of getting one Kevin Hayes to the possibility of getting 3 Paul Careys, even if the odds of getting the Kevin Hayes type player are lower. So that's my rationale for voting for the younger prospects who are less likely to make the NHL, but still have some possibility of materially exceeding replacement value instead of the older guys who are more likely to make the NHL, but basically only have 4th line upside.

I'd be curious if that makes sense to everyone else or if there some flaw in my thinking that I just haven't realized.
 
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pblawr said:
Personally, I don't value prospects based on the odds of them making the NHL, I value them based on the odds of them exceeding NHL replacement value. If a guy like Nieves makes the NHL, but is never materially better than the 10 guys you can sign for the league minimum every offseason, that just doesn't seem like it's worth a lot to me. It seems to me like prospects only have value to the extent they become better than the guys you can sign for the league minimum every offseason, ie a top 3 line forward or a top 4 defenseman. I don't think Boo has that potential, but I think Pajuniemi does. So personally, I value Pajuniemi ahead of Boo because I think he has the potential to exceed replacement value while Boo doesn't, even though the odds of Boo making the NHL are much higher.

Conversely, I think about it like this. In voting for guys like Ragnarsson, Pajuniemi, Keane, Barron, and Sjalin, I think you're hoping that one of them turns into a top 3 line forward or top 4 defensemen. With guys like Boo, Gilmour, Meskanen, Lindqvist, and Lettieri, you might get 3 of them in the NHL but all of them would be 4th liners. So what would you rather have, one player like Kevin Hayes or 3 players like Paul Carey, Peter Holland, and Matt Beleskey? Personally, I think the value of one guy like Hayes is dramatic enough relative to the value of 3 guys like Carey, that I prefer the possibility of getting one Kevin Hayes to the possibility of getting 3 Paul Careys, even if the odds of getting the Kevin Hayes type player are lower. So that's my rationale for voting for the younger prospects who are less likely to make the NHL, but still have some possibility of materially exceeding replacement value instead of the older guys who are more likely to make the NHL, but basically only have 4th line upside.

I'd be curious if that makes sense to everyone else or if there some flaw in my thinking that I just haven't realized.
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take a look at how much a decent 4th liner gets overpaid as a UFA...prospects that fill the bottom 6 or 3rd pair might not be overly exciting but having those spots filled by cheap young players over signing UFAs is hugely important
 
I love that Pajuniemi, who was added last, is taking this poll. Which goes to show you that the no 2 doesn't always win the next poll. I'd anything, it shows you that Pajuniemi is in the same category as guys like Virta, Meskanen and Lindqvist with a large portion voting for young kids with pro experience over more established prospects with less boom-or-bust potential
 
I have a hard time seeing Nieves getting much more than another extended cup of coffee. His play seems somehow indecisive, like he needs a pause to think "OK, now I got the puck, what next?" Even as a fourth liner he doesn't seem to bring enough grit or play with much direction or intent. Or I'm wrong, which would be great.
 
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