OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: New season of plundering begins

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't even want to get started on Davis and the OF, but I think his development in general really looks bad on the Pirates. They didn't really give him any reps there in the minors, and then just threw him out in the deep end at the same time as his callup. I think the underlying skills with Davis scream that he'd break out if sent to another org that knew what it was doing, but how relevant that is right now, I'm not sure.

I see Davis and Suwinski in the same boat in that the front office really believes in both and is unlikely to move on, much less sell low. Davis now being hurt makes it a near-0 possibility, I think.

Ward seems like an easy fit because the acquisition cost shouldn't be too high and he adds some veteran presence to go along with Cutch next year. The more I think about it, the more I think a push for Jazz makes too much sense not to hope for, as CF is a massive hole and it's not getting solved internally or even through the draft.

But the sellers' market will gum things up, and I don't really see a ton of other teams who will emerge and sell. Maybe a chunk of teams (us included) won't really buy much, but it's hard to imagine most of the teams around us in the standings having much to sell. The Jays seem like one domino that could fall, because they realistically aren't getting into the AL race unless they go on a winning streak that is pretty long.

Maybe an outside the box guy we could look at is Matt Vierling from Detroit. He's a little younger than Ward and not quite as good, but a bat that's right around average is not something we can boast many of right now. He might not quite fit the Tigers window even as they are starting to improve, so maybe there's a lower cost out of nowhere swap to be had there.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I don't even want to get started on Davis and the OF, but I think his development in general really looks bad on the Pirates. They didn't really give him any reps there in the minors, and then just threw him out in the deep end at the same time as his callup. I think the underlying skills with Davis scream that he'd break out if sent to another org that knew what it was doing, but how relevant that is right now, I'm not sure.

I see Davis and Suwinski in the same boat in that the front office really believes in both and is unlikely to move on, much less sell low. Davis now being hurt makes it a near-0 possibility, I think.

I continue to not see what the path is for Davis to succeed here.

I find myself hoping that Bart makes it back before he does because I think if Davis finds his way to Pittsburgh he'll put up another 2 week pathetic offensive performance. So I don't see him as a help this year, full stop. Do you disagree?

Then next year, Endy returns. At best Davis is catcher 1B and who knows with Bart still around. He has shown much more here than Davis has.

At the same time, eh strange things happen and you're right that his value is probably nil. I just don't see a path to it improving.


Regarding Chisholm, it all depends to me whether he has some sort of "name brand" premium associated with him. Robert has the premium as the "prettiest girl at the dance" this year and that is well-understood. I suspect that Guerrero is going to get wildly overvalued based on his hype and as a classic guy who was regarded as a #1 prospect who is now a decent player. With Chisholm, if he falls into the Guerrero category, no thanks. But if he can be valued as a 3 win CF fairly, then we can build packages to land him that make sense. Davis + Chandler is a good approximation.
I think the well-publicized player poll that ranked Chisholm as most overrated portends well for him being valued closer to Taylor Ward than to Luis Robert.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't see a lot of reasons to be optimistic about Davis right now, but I don't think the Pirates are going to just give up on their number 1 overall pick three years after taking him. When he comes back from injury, he should be given the runway in AAA to actually fully reset, including getting the Ks down to where they need to be in order to succeed.

I would have to assume that any team who actively wants to trade for him right now is not a team you want to be dealing with. I see only the smallest path to him rebuilding some value in AAA a few weeks before the deadline, but even that feels like a stretch. Selling low with a guy who has his tools is not a good idea at all. His problem is approach and borderline mechanical. He has the bat speed and other core skills needed, but MLB pitchers exposed a hole in his swing that he hasn't been able to recover from.

As unpopular and right now unlikely as it is, the Pirates do have to have internal improvements to make noise in this and future years, simply because they are the Pirates. Hayes looks disastrous now, with the very best you can probably muster being that he is yet again significantly hurt, as he has been for a large chunk of his career. Suwinski went from at least a good strong side platoon to totally lost. Triolo can't hit enough to play every day.

Even if we acquire decent talent, or someone significant like Jazz, something has to give there.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806542974353809476

Here's a Jays writeup. Reading between the lines, it sounds like they either need to make a major push in the next three weeks or else they'll have to shake things up. Seems kind of vague on whether they'd truly shop Bichette or Vlad Jr., but I don't think it can be ruled out.

That said, Vlad Jr. is a pipe dream for the Pirates, even if he wouldn't cost a major prospect like Johnson or Chandler at the front of the deal (I honestly think he wouldn't). He makes 20 million and will make more next year. It's just not happening.

And with Jazz, the Marlins seem like a bad fit because the organizational strength is pitching prospects. Maybe they'd value Johnson, and it seemed like they could use a catcher to build around, but I still have trouble seeing the fit there. Regardless, I don't think much of anything is happening for at least 3 weeks or so.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Davis was taken #1 in a weak draft because the Pirates wanted to save bonus money and because they soured on Jack Leiter. Looking back at it the big misses there are Jackson Jobe and Lawlar

The Pirates viewed Endy Rodriguez as their catcher of the future pretty much all of 2023 and likely still do. IF Endy was tradeable, he would be the main piece we would be dangling right now and we could get Chisholm or Ward for him. Hell, Endy could be the centerpiece in a Robert trade. But since he on the DL he cannot be traded. He will be our starting catcher in 2024. I also wouldn't write off Bart at all.

Davis needs to figure his bat out at the MLB level, but given how low of an offensive floor he showed he is only going to get those reps from a tanking team or a team that is so overwhelmingly good they can afford to tolerate a -2 WAR catcher. Who is that? The hole in his swing being the entire upper part of the zone and an inability to go the other way is easily exploitable. I thought he also had a bulldog mentality and such and would never, ever sink to the depths where he was effectively a hitting pitcher at the MLB level. Alas, here we are.

If Davis' value is truly nil, then sure hang onto him. But I think a couple of sellers (Rockies, Marlins) would have interest in letting him get 3 months of run at the MLB level and would value him like a 75-100 ranked prospect.

 

[ChaosAgent]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806542974353809476

Here's a Jays writeup. Reading between the lines, it sounds like they either need to make a major push in the next three weeks or else they'll have to shake things up. Seems kind of vague on whether they'd truly shop Bichette or Vlad Jr., but I don't think it can be ruled out.

That said, Vlad Jr. is a pipe dream for the Pirates, even if he wouldn't cost a major prospect like Johnson or Chandler at the front of the deal (I honestly think he wouldn't). He makes 20 million and will make more next year. It's just not happening.

And with Jazz, the Marlins seem like a bad fit because the organizational strength is pitching prospects. Maybe they'd value Johnson, and it seemed like they could use a catcher to build around, but I still have trouble seeing the fit there. Regardless, I don't think much of anything is happening for at least 3 weeks or so.

I'll just say it. If the Jays ate half the contract I would roll the dice on Springer at 3/$36M. Superb track record at the dish and we saw how awesome he was defensively in our series recently.

This one makes sense in an odd way. Is a 2/$24M commitment to George Springer really that different than the Chapman deal?

 

[td_ice]

The fact that we're writing off Hayes after the 2nd half he had last year is...I don't even disagree with it. But it's just sad. What are we even doing with him?

McMahon from Colorado is more expensive than Hayes moving forward. He's also the better hitter right now and probably going forward. I'd probably swap them 1 for 1 if given the chance.

Yeah the Hayes situation is super frustrating. I give him a lot of slack because of the back condition. Hopefully the period of time he stays healthy/healthier is increased, and he can actually hit decently.

Having Triolo be a poor man's Ben Zobrist is huge. As he can sub in basically at 3 INF positions. As you really don't lose much if anything on defense at 3b when Hayes is out. Which is saying something when the other guy is a gold glover. Just sucks Big Tree can't hit a bit better.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the situation with Hayes is that he can be a great hitter if he’s healthy, but he has chronic problems with his back that will keep him not 100%.

It sucks because I do genuinely believe he’d be a great hitter if he could be healthy, but the dude just seems to have a messed up back and there’s not much they can do about it.

 

[BusinessGoose]

If hayes can keep playing a fairly high level 3rd, he's still valuable, but if he keeps missing so much time, that'll be another need cause triolo ain't really it either

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Davis was taken #1 in a weak draft because the Pirates wanted to save bonus money and because they soured on Jack Leiter. Looking back at it the big misses there are Jackson Jobe and Lawlar

The Pirates viewed Endy Rodriguez as their catcher of the future pretty much all of 2023 and likely still do. IF Endy was tradeable, he would be the main piece we would be dangling right now and we could get Chisholm or Ward for him. Hell, Endy could be the centerpiece in a Robert trade. But since he on the DL he cannot be traded. He will be our starting catcher in 2024. I also wouldn't write off Bart at all.

Davis needs to figure his bat out at the MLB level, but given how low of an offensive floor he showed he is only going to get those reps from a tanking team or a team that is so overwhelmingly good they can afford to tolerate a -2 WAR catcher. Who is that? The hole in his swing being the entire upper part of the zone and an inability to go the other way is easily exploitable. I thought he also had a bulldog mentality and such and would never, ever sink to the depths where he was effectively a hitting pitcher at the MLB level. Alas, here we are.

If Davis' value is truly nil, then sure hang onto him. But I think a couple of sellers (Rockies, Marlins) would have interest in letting him get 3 months of run at the MLB level and would value him like a 75-100 ranked prospect.

I'm not trying to deny that the situation with Davis isn't very bad, but I think it's still overreacting to think he has to be sent packing for any kind of return.

Maybe the one path to something would be if the Marlins would jump on him as a key part of a Jazz trade, since Jazz actually fills a massive need that isn't happening from anyone internally or free agency. They don't really have a catching prospect, and with them seemingly needing to go into full-blown teardown mode, they would have the ability to just let Davis get a bunch of run at the MLB level like you say.

But with Davis, I think it's still worth having some caution. His problem is one that can be fixed with a better approach. It's only about a month or so of plate appearances that we are talking about. He wasn't a guy who chased too much or suffered from poor contact in the minors.

Does that mean it will happen? There's no guarantee, but I just wouldn't be in any hurry to send him out of town when his value is on a downward trend, especially because our hitting prospects are slim to none right now. All it would take to look royally stupid is Davis turning it around at the plate and all of a sudden he's batting .260, taking talks, and hitting on pace for 25 bombs. That's in there and is what the minor league performance points towards. If you traded that but had a 3-win CF to plug into the roster for 3 years, then it's a lot more palatable. But if you traded it for lesser impact, it would be an immediate egg on face trade.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I was actually mulling about a Chisholm deal with Suwinski and Davis as two of the pieces yesterday. You'd have to add more of course, but I think there could be something to work with there.

Although apparently Davis sucked after he was demoted in early June and is now in AA again, so I don't think that is very encouraging.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The problem with the Marlins is that it makes more sense for them to go full rebuild and acquire players who are multiple years away. Maybe Davis would be an exception there, since he's still in his first year of service, but I can't see Suwinski being valuable to them.

I'd imagine that a Chisholm trade might need to involve Johnson.

Apparently Heyman is saying that the Pirates are willing to offer pitchers in exchange for a bat. I do kind of wonder if the Toronto connection could finally come through for us. I'm not sure I'd want to trade Chandler for 1.5 years of Vlad Jr. (I'm really not sure I'd trade Chandler at all), but if Toronto needs to reset, then getting some pitching makes sense there. I still don't really see us paying Vlad's salary, though.

Toronto could change the dynamic a good bit if they decide to really sell, i.e. move Gausman and others. I wouldn't be opposed to Springer on a discount, but it really seems like his best days are well behind him. Assuming the Rays are open for business on everyone, another bounceback guy who I wouldn't mind taking a run at is Arozarena.

 

[metalan2]

Perez is a tomato can.

 

[metalan2]

Routine double play, but no one cares and dude is safe. Not that it matters, 5-0 lead may as well be 50-0.

Edit - cost them at least 1 more run and now the bullpen will be used several innings early. Could literally cost another game in this series bc of lackadaisical fielding.

 

[BusinessGoose]

ATL nuked us, going to football score us in a single inning

Go back to hockey trade talk, guys

 

[BusinessGoose]

Reynolds hitting streak to #24

Only victory today

 

[ChaosAgent]

2/3 of our core hitters are Ke'Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz.

 

[BusinessGoose]

2/3 of our core at batters are Ke'Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz.

Fixed. Cause.. I mean... It's a stretch to call em hitters, well.. They'll connect every four games, i guess. That is super effective.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Of course Hayes hits in an RBI. Too little too late

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The more I am looking at the draft, the more I am settling on just 2 guys, as 1a and 1b for us: Jordan Montgomery and Nick Kurtz.

If Chase Burns somehow fell, then I think you have to seriously consider that, but otherwise these two guys seem ideal. You could say the same for Wetherholt, but I have some more trouble there. If Callis and others allude to Wetherholt and Bazzana being near equal other than the hamstring issue, and then Wetherholt falls all the way to 9, then I think that's at least a yellow flag.

Both of these guys, however, are college bats who are in the same group and should have a shot to get to 9 in a few different ways. The key detail starts with the college arms going, and then after that, at least one of the prep guys, but I think we could see Yesavage get pushed up a bit since he's that prototypical college RHP.

The reason I focus on these two is that Montgomery has clear plus defensive floor in the OF due to his arm. I get a little worried about the chase, but he's improved and offers plus power. The only real knock on Kurtz is really beginning to get overblown, IMO, which is that there isn't a great track record for 1st round college 1Bs. While that truism exists for a reason, it doesn't say anything about Kurtz specifically. He's got great data, swing decisions, easy plus power, and is a strong defender. I feel like Torkelson is the highest profile 1B bust (at the moment), as Vaughn is more of a positionless guy.

Either way, there's logic to going for athletic players who play premium positions and then letting the chips fall where they may. But the Pirates are also picking 9th, not 3rd or 4th, and even then, Kurtz profiles extremely well for exactly what we need. He's arguably the best hitter in the draft. I could see Montgomery being appealing as someone with a potentially higher ceiling who we get a last minute, contingent deal on falling into our laps, but I think there's danger in some fan talk that I am seeing of overthinking it too much. Tibbs isn't really a standout OF and may be a 1B, and in any case is just a corner guy. Montgomery at least has the arm to be a difference maker defensively. You never draft for need in MLB, but I just keep coming back to Kurtz being the kind of player who we could be talking about as making his debut this time next summer.

 

[td_ice]

Well, should be a terrific pitching matchup today.

Skenes vs. Fried

 

[ChaosAgent]

Well, should be a terrific pitching matchup today.

Skenes vs. Fried

I know Fried is tough but it's time for our righty batters to stop sh1tting the bed. Need Gonzales and Joe in particular to generate runs for us.

 

[td_ice]

I know Fried is tough but it's time for our righty batters to stop sh1tting the bed. Need Gonzales and Joe in particular to generate runs for us.

A disconcerting stat.

Righties hitting only .160 vs Fried this season
Lefties, .370

 

[WickedWrister]

Glad that Gonzales is OK after ripping one off his knee, Skenes giving up another early homer but locked in and got the DP + strikeout.

Is Taylor going to be the next scapegoat for fans?

 

[Coastal Kev]

Glad that Gonzales is OK after ripping one off his knee, Skenes giving up another early homer but locked in and got the DP + strikeout.

Is Taylor going to be the next scapegoat for fans?

Is there any legitimate reason that Taylor shouldn't be trashed? Dude looks like he does GAF.