Ok.....that's not the way I look at it or figured most looked at it. I wouldn't get "fatigue" by voting for someone once. I look at it as voters having voted for a guy for a few years and they are looking for a reason to vote for someone else.
Quinn Hughes is having a Hart caliber season
- Thread starter LemonSauceD
- Start date
Team went from the 8th best xGF% 5v5 to 17th, and from 12th best xGF/60 on the PP to 28th. It’s not so much the PDO as the team just being worse and significantly so for most of the best players outside of Hughes
I wouldn't state it quite like this but the fact that Hughes stands out and is more import to the Canucks success is what might matter at the end of the day for the Norris but Dmen just don't get love in Hart voting and Drai is #1 on my ballot right now, although both Hughes and Hellebuyck have as compelling of an argument as the front runner.
Bourne Endeavor
Registered User
The drop of in talent from Hughes to Myers is so astronomical, it makes sense both Pettersson and Miller show mediocre results. They basically have no one else to move the puck up, forcing them (or the forwards in general) to do practically everything.
I've argued for a while now that's why Pettersson has seemingly looked so disappointing. He spends the least amount of time with Hughes because he's the best option away from him. Unfortunately, it limits what he's able to do quite noticeably.
Breakers
Make Mirrored Visors Legal Again
Not exactly. It wasn’t Pettersson’s best year and it was roughly on par for Miller to what he did in 21-22. Boeser was arguably better in the Covid season. Demko was just as good in his other healthy seasons even if it didn’t show sttistically. Joshua and Hronek are TBD, but Hronek was very good in Detroit before the trade and both have been injured this year.
None of the players had seasons that were wildly out of line with their abilities, but it was a mix of good health and almost everyone playing up to their abilities that shouldn’t be expected in a normal year, while this year has been a little worse in terms of both than one should expect. Teams need to be able to overcome injuries and down seasons. They’ve done okay at that so far, and are still on the bubble, but as this thread is about, a lot of that is on Quinn.
Also, if we’re talking about PDO, their shooting percentage isn’t much different this year. Last year they shot 10.6% at 5v5 and 11.98% overall. This year they’re shooting 10.05% at 5v5 and 11.61% overall. That’d only be a difference of 9 fewer goals last year. The biggest change in their PDO is in net, as Lankinen has done a solid job but he’s not healthy Demko.
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As an Avs fan, I've gotta admit he's the best dman in the league this year. Should def be in the Hart convo
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Defensemen don't win the Hart anymore. Just how it is. Quinn should absolutely be on everyone's ballot, but I know he won't win because that's how voters are.
There is zero justification for him not winning the Norris right now though.
I agree and have to admit that even the biggest Canuck fans couldn't have dreamt what a dominant play driver Quinn has become for quite some time now.
Honestly he is the best ever Canuck right now and just adding at this point.
No Canuck in history has had the run like Quinn has had since the 2021-2022 season to today.
Video Nasty
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- Mar 12, 2017
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He should repeat as the Norris winner.
Never underestimate the desire voters have to pretend Makar is Orr though.
Never underestimate the desire voters have to pretend Makar is Orr though.
- Oct 13, 2018
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The Canucks' PDO bender was pretty overstated, there were a lot of early blowouts where they sat back and allowed low danger shots while clogging up the dangerous lanes, it masked that they were playing fundamentally good hockey.
Even just looking at their first ten games, in their wins over Edmonton, St. Louis, Nashville, and San Jose they won the game fast and let the other team take garbage shots for two full periods.
The big difference this season is actually that Zadorov to some degree, but especially Cole, was a much bigger loss than expected.
You know what I mean. He is a top 3 candidate in my eyes right now, but he would fall out if Van misses playoffs.
Avsfan1921
Registered User
- Oct 5, 2019
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I would say your interpretation is a bit disingenuous.
The Canucks underlying numbers were not good in the early part of the season. Low danger shots against are/don't make your xG look bad. But they had great goaltending and crazy shooting luck (they were scoring butt goals off Sam Lafferty, 40 foot unscreened wristers from Hoglander, tons of tips/deflection goals).
Their underlying shot/chance shares improved as the season went on, which somewhat offset the PDO luck fading away in the last ~30 games of the season.
I agree that Zadorov and Cole are definitely better than whatever platter of guys they have right now. But they're not getting the same bounces they were last season, and their fundamental offensive system of "floaters from the point and hope for tips/deflections" is not working anymore. Mostly because you can't expect them to score at the rate they did last year with that method of offensive "creation".
I think you’re vastly underrating score effects. It’s not that they were letting up a ton on low danger shots those games it’s that they sat back to protect the lead and didn’t generate anything themselves to prop up the underlying numbers. The Canucks underlying numbers were basically good after the early blowouts. They were certainly lucky in the early going, but they were playing much better than the underlying numbers suggested, as Rowlet said. They were a good team all year last year. This year, their shooting percentage is almost the same but they’re generating far less
When's the last time a dman deserved the Hart?
The MVP is rarely a dman, and it's not because of some imaginary rule.
The metrics I look at are always score (and venue) adjusted. It doesn't make a big difference.
I don't think they were playing well, by memory, early last season. I very vividly remember games against EDM and OTT where they were getting absolutely shelled to start the game, yet skate down the ice once and score a goal against the grain. Then give up another 2-4 scoring chances yet score on their next. It was a common occurrence early in the season.
Their actual level of play dramatically improved as the season went on, simultaneously with the PDO luck fading.
Last season. Quinn Hughes.
KirkAlbuquerque
#WeNeverGetAGoodCoach
Not sure about Canucks overall, but Hughes for sure. I agree, he's having a great year, but totally disagree in terms of the reason for the topic....not talked about enough.....I'd suggest the opposite.
I see all the great stats and how he's very clearly their best player, they are so terrible when he's not on the ice, guys out or not doing well, etc. BUT, the team was near the top last year and they are just hanging on to wild card this year (projecting outside playoffs due to having played more games). So yes, the team around him is a lot worse than before, he's the shining light, but they are also doing at lot worse because the rest of the team isn't doing much.....just not any easy narrative to paint him a Hart favourite.....even without considering a Dman almost never wins.
AvsGuy
Hired the wrong DJ again
John Mandalorian
2022 Avs: The First Dance
- Nov 29, 2018
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Do you see the irony in what you’re saying? In a thread about Hughes being a Hart candidate, you’re really making a case for why it should be MacKinnon and Hughes shouldn’t be in the conversation. If MacKinnon is propping up a bum (as you portray him) to such an extent to elevate him to Norris discussion (even if erroneous), then forget Hughes or Makar. Glad you’ve noticed that MacKinnon is doing some seriously heavy lifting.
- Oct 13, 2018
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I think you need to build another scarecrow to argue against.
I've never said that MacKinnon doesn't do the heavy lifting, I've been making the same argument for the last 1.5 years, however your interpretation of what I've said is completely wrong.
MacKinnon's stats away from Makar are still better than Makar's away from MacKinnon, however they're actually worse than the Avalanche average when neither Makar or MacKinnon are on the ice. They have a symbiotic relationship where they both manage to propel the other to being elite, however that relationship doesn't seem to extend to basically any other lines.
Comparatively, Hughes makes every single line better. Hughes, when he's out there without Pettersson OR Miller, has Corsi, Fenwick, and expected goal stats around 60%, while the Canucks without any of them on the ice averages closer to 40%.
This means that when Hughes is on the ice with the Canucks 3rd and 4th lines, the Canucks are about as dominant as the Avalanche are when Makar and MacKinnon are on the ice together.
John Mandalorian
2022 Avs: The First Dance
- Nov 29, 2018
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Sure, the Avs have MacKinnon as a 1C. But guess who the Avs real 2C was most of last year? Nope it’s not Johansen. The Avs 2nd line for the majority of last year was Wood-Colton-OConnor. A third line centered by Colton vs Miller and Petterssonn. Have you considered that Vancouver might have better C depth? Sure they don’t have a 1C as good as MacKinnon but the drop off between Vancouvers 1C and 2C isn’t as steep. Your constant refrain of “making others better” is a little daft in that he’s not making the others better (as in non top line) as much as it’s that Vancouver’s others have been better for the most part.
And guess what. The last time the Avs had a 2C like Miller or Petterrssonn was...take a guess...2022 when Kadri had over 90 pts. You don’t think it’s a coincidence that this is partly the reason why people are referring to this as Makar’s best season?
Your “analysis” is mostly a shell game that’s really about having better C depth.
