Yeah I rate them pretty much the same. I just really can't help but be more intrigued by a big, mobile defenseman with puck skills. And while I think Yager stands a slightly better chance of making the jump to his expected role... it's not like he isn't without question marks.
Still... terrific cases for both, here.
I think Yager has more tools in place and that puts him in a better place. But then he's meant to. Forwards mature quicker than dmen. Shorter players have an easier time smoothing body co-ordination than guys who grew nine inches in a few years.
Look at it this way... what's the odds each guy becomes a guy, a 3m player, a 6m player, a 9m player (as those contracts are currently given out)?
Both feel pretty likely to at least be min wage guys if they don't slack. Yager wants to be a responsible guy and just needs to keep growing, Pickering is big and skates.
A 3m guy... this is saying Pickering becomes Carson Soucy and that seems a pretty likely outcome. Big, strong, quick, plays committed but not mean, shows offence at times, can earn some trust but is just too inconsistent in the decision making to be more than the 4/5 guy. Ian Cole seems the obvious Pens comparison.
At 6m, we're saying a guy like Damon Severson and Travis Sanheim, or Ryan Pulock/Adam Pelech. 20 minut 2/3 guy. Either he looks good enough defensively although a little sus and produces a lot but enough to be worth a ton... or the offence is only average but he is no fun to play against what so ever. I can see it either way but there's going to have to be big jumps in his game.
I can't really see him at 9m. That demands a level of offensive play that hasn't been happening. Maybe he's going to suddenly discover a new level of comfort in his body and have a huge leap-up but you can't project that.
A 3m guy for Yager is either Kasperi Kapanen/Anthony Duclair - skill, speed, annoying coaches, hugely effective in the right set-up but generally is frustrating - or Alex Kerfoot with a ceiling of Erika Haula, aka a versatile third liner who does a bunch of nice things but can't really be trusted to do more than that and is a little vanilla. Pre-breakout Jared McCann. Don't feel like this would surprise anyone.
6m is someone like Vincent Trocheck or Sam Reinhart or, I guess, current Jared McCann. A versatile second liner who's either sticking at C but is only averagely productive, or is quite productive but is more break glass at C and best suited to being a scoring sidecar to a dominant C. Again, I can absolutely see this. He's got a really nice shot, he's got a sense of defensive responsibility, these things could develop enough. Needs to build strength. It seems a normal trajectory.
Him getting 9m is low end 1C - Barzal or Larkin - or being a high end 1st line wing, like Rantanen or Meier. Which... people were calling for him in D-1. I don't think many players play more like D-1 than D in D+1 but if he could, if he takes a big jump... I mean, it's possible. Some of his highlights are filthy. Needs to hit another level on his skating, which might happen with muscle, and he needs to keep building that shot to borderline elite, and needs to stickhandle better... but maybe?
I feel like they're just as likely to make the 3m tier and both most likely to end up there and I would take 3m Pickering over 3m Yager. I think Yager is a bit more likely to make 6m than Pickering, and I would prefer 6m Yager over the Severson version of Pickering but not over the shutdown version.
And while the chance of Yager reaching 9m feels real slim, it's about four times the chance of it happening for Pickering.
So... I think it has to be Yager. I think most times I'll prefer the player Pickering turns into, but I like Yager's ceiling more and his chances of hitting it. Yager's chances of hitting it are slim, but it's the difference between hoping you draw an ace and turning in your whole hand and hoping you get four (metaphorically, not literally).