Brock
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Preliminary Top 50 for the 2023 NHL Entry Draft
It's time for my first official ranking for the 2023 NHL Entry Draft. I say official because I release a preseason ranking in the summer (wh...
ohlprospects.blogspot.com
It's time for my first official ranking for the 2023 NHL Entry Draft. I say official because I release a preseason ranking in the summer (which can be found here).
The list includes detailed reports on the Top 30 and small snippets on the other 20 that make up the Top 50.
As of right now, I'm not sure I would call this a strong draft crop for the OHL. This is especially true when you consider the depth many other leagues and countries have to offer. We have some solid talent near the top and as many as six first round candidates IMO, but the depth does not currently look terrific. Filling out the top 50 for this list was extremely difficult. In reality, I would say only about 35 or so names are truly on the draft radar. I'd put the early over/under for players drafted from the OHL this year at about 29.5 and that includes re-entry candidates that I have not listed here.
Speaking of re-entries, it is important to note (for those that aren't familiar with my lists), that I don't include 2nd and 3rd year eligible players on the list (like Kingston's Linus Hemstrom or Sarnia's Marcus Limpar Lantz). I do a year end list for those players.
Without further ado, here's my early season top 50.
1. Cal Ritchie - Center/Wing - Oshawa Generals
I've seen a few people suggest that Ritchie's offensive production doesn't warrant being as highly rated as he is currently. I'd argue that it's important not to stat watch and actually see the players play. The Generals just aren't going to be a terrific team this year. Expecting him to be near the top of the league scoring race is unreasonable. Instead look at the improvements that Ritchie has made to his game in comparison to last year. He's stronger on/off the puck and is really turning into a dominant two-way force. He's trusting his shot more and hunting down opportunities to get to the inside to score. He's making better decisions with the puck in transition and is varying pace to make himself more unpredictable. He's still got a great combination of length, skill, and speed. He's the complete package. The great thing is that he's almost assuredly a big part of the Canadian U18 team in April, where he'll be given a chance to build off of his terrific Hlinka/Gretzky Cup appearance.
2. Colby Barlow - Wing - Owen Sound Attack
I just wrote a piece on Barlow for McKeen's and Tony Ferrari and I recently spoke at length about Barlow on our THN podcast (found here). Needless to say...I'm a fan. I see his game transitioning to the NHL level extremely well. That combination of power, size, two-way ability, and goal scoring ability is just rare. He's also just a really good kid who's already wearing the "C" in Owen Sound as a 17 year old. He generates speed so quickly and it makes him very difficult to contain in transition. But, he's also very middle of the ice centric, which is something NHL scouts really look at. When he's using his speed to back down defenders, he's taking the puck to the middle and looking to get to the net. He's also physical and is a potential lock down defensive forward, something that he showed at the Hlinka/Gretzky and something that he has continued to show in the OHL. As a goal scorer, he has many weapons. He finishes well in tight. He has soft hands for re-directs. He has a wicked wrist shot and one timer. His scoring instincts are sound. We just saw a similar player in Cutter Gauthier go inside the top five and I'd honestly prefer Barlow as a long term prospect. Are there any downsides? The one area that needs to improve for Barlow is his neutral zone play with the puck and ability to handle at top speed. He can struggle to cleanly accept passes from his defenders and as he tries to push east/west, he can lose control. When he takes control in his own zone and builds a head of steam, he is rarely stopped. However, when he's supporting the breakout, it's not always the cleanest. This is something that can be worked on. I think his hands are good enough that as he gets stronger, this should improve. IMO it's truly the key to unlocking his high end potential.
3. Cam Allen - Defense - Guelph Storm
As you may have seen from the link to my preseason list, I had Allen at number one following the Hlinka/Gretzky Cup. I had very high expectations for him entering the year and I fully expected him to be the top defender available in 2023. Now...I'm less sure of that and as such, I've moved him below Ritchie and Barlow who have started the year off very well (to go with their strong Hlinka/Gretzky Cup performances). I still like Allen. I still have high hopes for Allen. How much of Allen's struggles can be blamed on the Storm's poor performance to start the year? Or, conversely, are Allen's struggles a main reason why Guelph has struggled? Allen's decision making with the puck has left some to be desired. To me, he looks like a player who is trying to force the play, always seemingly trying to make the hard play instead of taking the easy one. That is leading to some bad turnovers. He's being asked to do a lot right now and my guess is that the pressure of his draft year is weighing on him a little bit. Last year and at the Hlinka/Gretzky, I liked his decision making and thought it was a strength of his game. This year...it's been a weakness. Additionally, his play in the defensive end has wavered. He needs to be more consistently dialed in physically. He can play a suffocating style, but he can also be pushed around and does not come away with the puck enough in those true 50/50 toss ups. He's still a strong skating, potential two-way workhorse. However, what's the offensive upside here? Is Allen more of a Calvin de Haan type than say...a Charlie McAvoy?
4. Hunter Brzustewicz - Defense - Kitchener Rangers
If you asked me who the most impressive draft eligible blueliner has been so far this year, it wouldn't be Allen, but Brzustewicz (or Barrie's Beau Akey). It's pronounced "Bru-stay-vitch" for those wondering. After struggling through injuries and a lack of ice time with the NTDP the last two years, Brzustewicz has entered the OHL and become an immediate top pairing defender for the Rangers. They rely on him to play 25+ minutes a night and in all situations. Part of me is a bit concerned by the fact that he doesn't have a true standout quality; nothing I would consider elite. Sometimes that can be the kiss of death for blueline prospects as they try to transition to the NHL. However, the other part of me loves the simplicity of his game, a game built around quick decision making and strong four way mobility. I really like how he takes control of the game inside the offensive blueline. His lateral quickness and pivots are very sharp and he always has his head up. He's not afraid to make the simple play and rarely tries to force things if they aren't there. He's content to hold the line and dump the puck back into the corner. But he also identifies opportunities to pinch and try to work his way down low. In the defensive end, he takes good routes to pucks and surveys the ice well to start the breakout. He makes crisp passes to his outlets and has really good scanning habits. He's not really a true burner from a linear speed perspective. He's not someone who you'll see going end to end. But you don't need to be to be a good NHL defender. In the defensive end, I think he's a smart player, but I think he needs to be a harder player to match up against. He loses too many battles for positioning near the crease and can be too passive along the wall. But I'm curious to see how his game develops over the course of the year as he builds confidence (and as the Rangers improve...like I anticipate they will).
5. Beau Akey - Defense - Barrie Colts
If you follow me on social media, you'd know that I really like Akey. At this point, I think he's right there with Allen and Brzustewicz as a candidate to be the top OHL defender off the board. With Brandt Clarke in LA, Akey has been the top pairing defender that the Colts needed him to be. In terms of offensive upside, I think he may actually possess more than Allen and Brzustewicz. His hands and ability to escape pressure are a step above those two. He can really carve up the neutral zone as a carrier because of his quickness and his skill blending abilities. I think he could actually stand to take more chances with the puck because of how well he can recover, but right now he's still fairly conservative. I also really like Akey's defensive awareness. His play in the neutral zone is a real strength. He's not afraid to step up to play aggressively to knock down clearing attempts and he will look to shut down transitional attacks early. He defends the slot well too with that quick stick and strong anticipation. Where Akey struggles is similar to Allen and Brzustewicz. He needs to be harder on puck carriers. He can be too complacent at times and allows the opposition to dictate the play, rather than being assertive to force their hand. He flashes this ability on some shifts, but then leaves large gaps or fails to pin his man along the boards on others. For a player with his four way mobility, his defensive footwork can get sloppy at times too. It's almost as if he is unsure of himself and just overthinking things. If he can learn to be as aggressive in the defensive zone as he is in the NZ, he'd be a lot better for it. Even still, he's a borderline first round candidate for me.
6. Quentin Musty - Wing - Sudbury Wolves
Oh Quentin Musty, how you will frustrate scouts this year. There are so many intriguing qualities to his game. He's exceptionally skilled, especially as a one on one attacker. He has a big shot and scoring potential. He actually does have great vision at times and can thread a pass through the smallest of seams. The upside at the NHL level is extremely tantalizing. But then there are the disappearing acts. The shifts where he tries to take on three defenders and turns over the puck. The shifts where he is kept to the perimeter. The shifts where he is complacent and looks sluggish without the puck. What is the root cause of these deficits and the inconsistent performance? Is it processing? Is it conditioning? Is it skating related? He is bound to be one of the most heavily scrutinized players over the course of this draft season. The next Brandon Saad? Let's see how he plays under Derek MacKenzie. The early results are good.
7. Carson Rehkopf - Wing/Center - Kitchener Rangers
I actually know some people who prefer Rehkopf to Musty at this time and, honestly, I'm nearly there too. I don't think his offensive ceiling is nearly as high, but the floor certainly is. If you think Rehkopf can play center long term, he's going to be a very interesting player to you. Large frame. Plays the game hard and physical, especially below the goal line. Tough to knock off the puck already and strong on the wall. Has the potential to be a strong two-way presence IMO. Has excellent goal scoring potential too because of a quick release and heavy wrister. I think, for me, the biggest questions I have surround Rehkopf's processing and vision. I'm not saying it's poor. It's more that I just don't have a great read on that yet. I want to continue to see how his play without the puck evolves and how his playmaking ability improves in transition. Can he take over games consistently? There's a real intriguing combination of power and speed here.
8. Luca Pinelli - Wing/Center - Ottawa 67's
As of writing this, Pinelli is actually the highest scoring first time eligible player in the OHL. Not sure that would have been expected heading into the year. I know my pals at McKeen's Will Scouch and Sam McGilligan are huge fans of his and rightfully so based on the progress he has shown in the last calendar year. He was actually really strong in the second half of his rookie year and just continues to build off of that. He's a better skater than his brother Francesco was at the same age. But he has similar cognitive strengths. His play without the puck and anticipation in the offensive end are really strong. He slides in and out of traffic and plays through the middle of the ice. He's got more jam to his game than his brother too, consistently engaged in puck pursuit. I know he's played some center this year, but I've definitely liked him better on the wing. That's where I see him fitting down the line. I guess the million dollar question is...what's the upside? I don't see a guy with elite level skill. But I do see someone with the skill set to be a very strong complementary player at the next level...especially if he can continue to improve those physical tools. Good goal scorer. Supports the play well. Versatile. I don't see him as a first round candidate in this strong of a draft year, but if he keeps this up, he's assured to be a second rounder like his brother.
9. Denver Barkey - Center - London Knights
Seriously, how could you not like Denver Barkey? Yeah, yeah...I know. He's only 5'9 and a 155lbs. He's also not an elite skater like you probably want to see. Not a poor skater by any means, but he does not possess high end separation ability or elusiveness right now. Yet...he finds a way to be an impactful player in so many ways. He's versatile; already a fantastic penalty killer and two-way presence. He's competitive; someone who consistently fights to earn touches and competes away from the puck. He's skilled, more so than people give him credit for IMO. He's intelligent; his vision is a standout quality. What's going to happen after he matures more physically? I think there's a lot more potential to unlock here. I see Barkey in a similar light to Owen Beck last year. This is a young man that I believe has a high ceiling and a pretty decent floor. Even if he tops out as a Paul Byron type, that will still bring a lot of long term value to an NHL franchise. But what if he continues to get better and ends up as Joe Pavelski, JG Pageau type? Lots of different paths to the NHL for players like Barkey IMO. London is sure to yo-yo all season this year, but Barkey's going to consistently show well.
10. Nick Lardis - Wing - Peterborough Petes
Lardis is a really interesting prospect because of his combination of speed and goal scoring potential. He consistently puts defenders on their heals driving wide as he looks to cut to the middle. He's far from a perimeter player too. He will work his way between the hash marks and crash the net for scoring chances. Like Colby Barlow, he can score in a variety of different ways; the true mark of a top notch goal scorer. I like Lardis' energy off the puck in the offensive zone too. He battles for space and consistently applies pressure on the forecheck. I'm still trying to get a good read on his passing ability and overall vision. He can be turnover prone. There are instances of tunnel vision in transition. In a lot of ways, I think Lardis is still learning how to use his speed effectively and consistently. I think he's also still learning how to vary his attacks to incorporate changes of pace. These criticisms are similar to the ones that I had about David Goyette early last year. At this point, Lardis looks like a solid second/third round prospect, but with some improvements over the year, he could move up. Outside of Barlow and Musty, he has the highest upside as a goal scorer from the "O" IMO.
You can see the rest of the top 50 at the link above.
As always, happy to answer any questions.
