Blue Jays Discussion: post-deadline, back-at-home edition
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LeafChief
Matthew Knies Enthusiast
Yankees and Mariners keep winning. God damnit.
Need to stay hot tomorrow against KC and take at least 3 of 4 against Cleveland before we get another shot at the Red Sox.
Need to stay hot tomorrow against KC and take at least 3 of 4 against Cleveland before we get another shot at the Red Sox.
to woodman point in the previous closed thread about 200>50. Regardless of 200 or not, it is still only 30 times a year he participates in a game and has an outcome. Kimbrel or any closer will impact a game at least 40 games in a year. Berrios is only out there 30 times a year where can influence a game while Kimbrel is probably closer to 50
% of games Kimbrel appears ve Berrios is higher 2018 Kimbrel was in appeared in 63 games and Berrios was 32 games. Kimbrel was in double the games Berrios was.
Sure Berrios pitched 200 innings but each start still had only 1 outcome a win or a loss so 30 times he could have helped the Twins win but Kimbrel shut the door 42 times in 2018.
% of games Kimbrel appears ve Berrios is higher 2018 Kimbrel was in appeared in 63 games and Berrios was 32 games. Kimbrel was in double the games Berrios was.
Sure Berrios pitched 200 innings but each start still had only 1 outcome a win or a loss so 30 times he could have helped the Twins win but Kimbrel shut the door 42 times in 2018.
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
Why stop there? The main goal for pitchers is run prevention. Every at bat has an outcome with the possibility of a run being scored. Berrios is assigned the task of getting most of those batters out. In his career, he has faced more batters than Kimbrel has. That to me sounds like more potential outcomes than Kimbrel.
It's good to know where you stand on the great debate between '99 Pedro and '08 K Rod.
Cloned
Begging for Bega
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You won’t even get a chance to use a guy like Kimbrel in a game if you don’t have guys like Berrios.
zeke
The Dube Abides
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Congrats to Messrs Shapiro and Atkins for making the big ballsy deal.
Austin Martin was the perfect guy to trade - a guy whose Hype vastly outshines his troubling performance. The only thing good about his performance this year has been his elite walk rate. Everything else is poor to awful. And he doesn't even project to stick at a premium defensive position.
SWR is a bit tougher to see leave - that kid has put up elite numbers so far at every level, before a brief stumble his last few starts. I think he's a good one that will make it. But you have to give up something to get something.
And Berrios is a good something. Young durable consistent #2 SP. Has some argument to be our best SP now, though thats a close battle. This gives us an excellent front 4 now and while I don't love either #5 candidate, a #5 is a #5.
Did the FO take way too long to address a hole that was obvious in the offseason? Yup. Did this likely make this acquisition costlier than it could have been? Probably. Did this trade cost too much relative to the other trades around the league? Yup.
But that's fine. In terms of my personal valuation of both these specific prospects and the value of prospects in general, this is a fair price to pay for what we're getting.
Great stuff. And now the Jays have one of the easier remaining schedules, a home park finally, and what is looking like the healthiest roster they've had all year. I think they'll make it.
Austin Martin was the perfect guy to trade - a guy whose Hype vastly outshines his troubling performance. The only thing good about his performance this year has been his elite walk rate. Everything else is poor to awful. And he doesn't even project to stick at a premium defensive position.
SWR is a bit tougher to see leave - that kid has put up elite numbers so far at every level, before a brief stumble his last few starts. I think he's a good one that will make it. But you have to give up something to get something.
And Berrios is a good something. Young durable consistent #2 SP. Has some argument to be our best SP now, though thats a close battle. This gives us an excellent front 4 now and while I don't love either #5 candidate, a #5 is a #5.
Did the FO take way too long to address a hole that was obvious in the offseason? Yup. Did this likely make this acquisition costlier than it could have been? Probably. Did this trade cost too much relative to the other trades around the league? Yup.
But that's fine. In terms of my personal valuation of both these specific prospects and the value of prospects in general, this is a fair price to pay for what we're getting.
Great stuff. And now the Jays have one of the easier remaining schedules, a home park finally, and what is looking like the healthiest roster they've had all year. I think they'll make it.
phillipmike
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- Oct 27, 2009
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This was going to be my point. A closer can’t close out a game if they don’t have the lead. Half of having a lead comes from a starter’s ability to give you quality starts.
And you really don’t have to look much further than free agency. The record for the highest paid closer is $85M. There are currently 15 starting pitchers out there with contracts over $85M and 33 in MLB history.
This isn’t the be all end all but it demonstrates the most important point, it outlines how much an MLB team values starting pitching over closers when all things are equal which is when a player is available to be acquired. There are 30 closers - 1 for each team and there are at least 150 starting pitching spots to fill - 5 for each team. When it comes to free agency value and trade value, which is what we are discussing, this is why Berrios cost more than Kimbrel - MLB teams value starting pitchers much more than closers.
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Canada4Gold
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- Dec 22, 2010
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Just bring up Jake Arrieta in his prime or John Lester's first couple years as a Cub versus some non Cubs closer and the argument will flip. Literally not worth the time.
The Cubs absolutely robbed their crosstown rivals. That should be enough.
The Cubs absolutely robbed their crosstown rivals. That should be enough.
Our run differential is 158 runs better than the Mariners and 105 better than the Yankees and yet we're a game behind. Crazy stuff. You'd think the runs would even out eventually and we'd go on a run where we consistently win by 2 or 3.
Scott Mitchell: Pivot from stockpiling prospects to peddling them arrives for Blue Jays - TSN.ca
In trading away 2020 fifth-overall pick Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson, the main piece in the return for Marcus Stroman at the 2019 deadline, GM Ross Atkins sent two top 100 prospects to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for two-plus months of Berríos this season and a full 2022 campaign that’s really the key to the whole thing.
If you think it’s too much to give up, that’s not outlandish.
But when you start to factor in how fleeting opportunities to acquire impact rotation pieces are, combined with the fact prices at this trade deadline were much higher than previous years, and you start to see how the chance to acquire the 27-year-old right-hander was too good to pass up.
Even if it meant dealing Martin, a very good prospect who’s faces significant questions about not only his defensive home, but his power, as well, something that was a concern for evaluators during the draft process.
That’s not to say Martin isn’t a very good prospect. He is.
But there’s a chance the Blue Jays sold high. There’s also the chance, of course, he alters his swing, taps into the power and becomes the star many have envisioned.
This trade, however, is all about what the Jays needed most to take the next step in their hopeful evolution into a World Series contender.
It’s impact pitching, and Berríos may just be the start.
The Jays are fully expected to be in on names like Noah Syndergaard and Kevin Gausman in free agency this winter, as well as whatever other trade opportunities present themselves.
...........................
Many will look at Berríos’ career 4.08 ERA and feel underwhelmed.
It’s more about the stuff, the track record of health and durability, and the touch of upside he could possess at an age when pitchers are usually just starting to figure things out.
After being drafted by the Twins with the 32nd pick in the 2012 draft, a new organizational message and a different voice in veteran pitching coach Pete Walker could unlock another level in the 6-foot Puerto Rican.
It’s a thought that has crossed Atkins’ mind, but they didn’t make the deal banking on it.
The current version of Berríos, with a career-best 3.48 ERA through 20 starts thus far this season, is well worth the price in his opinion.
“I think it is really interesting as young he is, as athletic and how hard-working as he is, it’s easy to think about him just continuing on a positive trend,” Atkins said. “Whether that is in more just how he’s deploying his work and how he’s learning how to attack different teams and learning how to reshape certain pitches or make adjustments, he has the ability and all of the attributes to do all of those things. We’ll see. Time will tell on that front, but the current version in the current form was obviously exciting enough for us.”
Once it was clear to the Jays that Berríos was available this week and the Twins were motivated to move him a year-and-a-half out from free agency, he became the clear target.
Not only does it give Atkins’ club a chance to catch lightning in a bottle this season and climb over a number of clubs to claim a wild-card spot, it gives them a full season of Berríos paired with Hyun Jin Ryu — and potentially free-agent-to-be Robbie Ray, who absolutely needs to be re-upped with a lucrative new deal — atop the Jays rotation in 2022.
“In my discussions with (Twins president of baseball operations) Derek (Falvey), we knew the potential was there,” Atkins said of the deal coming together. “We also knew that it was going to be a very steep price. They want to continue to try to win and they could’ve very easily just had him pitch for them tonight."
“Over the last probably 48 hours, it felt as though we were one of the teams that had a real chance at him,” Atkins added. “So we spent a little bit more time on that and spent a little bit more time with that organization, not just myself, but other individuals talking to them. Today, the offers became more concrete and it was a decision point for us.”
With Berríos now added to a rotation that includes the aforementioned Ryu and Ray, rookie Alek Manoah, who will start Saturday at Rogers Centre, as well as Steven Matz and Ross Stripling, the Jays are likely to roll with a six-man rotation for the time being.
The depth is nice, but it is Berríos’ ability to consistently pitch deep into games that will really help.
“This moves helps not only protect others starters and the reliance on Hyun Jin Ryu and Robbie Ray to each time out really be the stoppers for us, but it’ll also impact our relievers because Berríos is someone who has gotten deep into games pretty routinely and that takes some stress off,” Atkins said. “It was important for us to acquire pitching in some way if it were possible and it wasn’t the best market to be in for starting pitching but we were fortunate to have the talent to be able to acquire Jose.”
Durability is a major factor, as well.
In trading away 2020 fifth-overall pick Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson, the main piece in the return for Marcus Stroman at the 2019 deadline, GM Ross Atkins sent two top 100 prospects to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for two-plus months of Berríos this season and a full 2022 campaign that’s really the key to the whole thing.
If you think it’s too much to give up, that’s not outlandish.
But when you start to factor in how fleeting opportunities to acquire impact rotation pieces are, combined with the fact prices at this trade deadline were much higher than previous years, and you start to see how the chance to acquire the 27-year-old right-hander was too good to pass up.
Even if it meant dealing Martin, a very good prospect who’s faces significant questions about not only his defensive home, but his power, as well, something that was a concern for evaluators during the draft process.
That’s not to say Martin isn’t a very good prospect. He is.
But there’s a chance the Blue Jays sold high. There’s also the chance, of course, he alters his swing, taps into the power and becomes the star many have envisioned.
This trade, however, is all about what the Jays needed most to take the next step in their hopeful evolution into a World Series contender.
It’s impact pitching, and Berríos may just be the start.
The Jays are fully expected to be in on names like Noah Syndergaard and Kevin Gausman in free agency this winter, as well as whatever other trade opportunities present themselves.
...........................
Many will look at Berríos’ career 4.08 ERA and feel underwhelmed.
It’s more about the stuff, the track record of health and durability, and the touch of upside he could possess at an age when pitchers are usually just starting to figure things out.
After being drafted by the Twins with the 32nd pick in the 2012 draft, a new organizational message and a different voice in veteran pitching coach Pete Walker could unlock another level in the 6-foot Puerto Rican.
It’s a thought that has crossed Atkins’ mind, but they didn’t make the deal banking on it.
The current version of Berríos, with a career-best 3.48 ERA through 20 starts thus far this season, is well worth the price in his opinion.
“I think it is really interesting as young he is, as athletic and how hard-working as he is, it’s easy to think about him just continuing on a positive trend,” Atkins said. “Whether that is in more just how he’s deploying his work and how he’s learning how to attack different teams and learning how to reshape certain pitches or make adjustments, he has the ability and all of the attributes to do all of those things. We’ll see. Time will tell on that front, but the current version in the current form was obviously exciting enough for us.”
Once it was clear to the Jays that Berríos was available this week and the Twins were motivated to move him a year-and-a-half out from free agency, he became the clear target.
Not only does it give Atkins’ club a chance to catch lightning in a bottle this season and climb over a number of clubs to claim a wild-card spot, it gives them a full season of Berríos paired with Hyun Jin Ryu — and potentially free-agent-to-be Robbie Ray, who absolutely needs to be re-upped with a lucrative new deal — atop the Jays rotation in 2022.
“In my discussions with (Twins president of baseball operations) Derek (Falvey), we knew the potential was there,” Atkins said of the deal coming together. “We also knew that it was going to be a very steep price. They want to continue to try to win and they could’ve very easily just had him pitch for them tonight."
“Over the last probably 48 hours, it felt as though we were one of the teams that had a real chance at him,” Atkins added. “So we spent a little bit more time on that and spent a little bit more time with that organization, not just myself, but other individuals talking to them. Today, the offers became more concrete and it was a decision point for us.”
With Berríos now added to a rotation that includes the aforementioned Ryu and Ray, rookie Alek Manoah, who will start Saturday at Rogers Centre, as well as Steven Matz and Ross Stripling, the Jays are likely to roll with a six-man rotation for the time being.
The depth is nice, but it is Berríos’ ability to consistently pitch deep into games that will really help.
“This moves helps not only protect others starters and the reliance on Hyun Jin Ryu and Robbie Ray to each time out really be the stoppers for us, but it’ll also impact our relievers because Berríos is someone who has gotten deep into games pretty routinely and that takes some stress off,” Atkins said. “It was important for us to acquire pitching in some way if it were possible and it wasn’t the best market to be in for starting pitching but we were fortunate to have the talent to be able to acquire Jose.”
Durability is a major factor, as well.
So with both Barrios and Soria set tobe activated, who goes down and how do we create 2 40.man spots?
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
They optioned Snead and DFA’d Davis and Chatwood
edit:
I guess Snead was for Hand’s spot. Dolis you figure is one arm and the other might be Hatch/Saucedo.
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Woodman19
Registered User
- Jun 14, 2008
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Looks much better than earlier, and once Pearson gets back gives us that extra elite arm for high leverage innings with Romano.
Dr.Funk
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LeafChief
Matthew Knies Enthusiast
This team is giving me such 2015 vibes. I believe at the deadline in 2015, our record was actually a bit worse than it was at this year's deadline.
Yankees, Mariners and Red Sox are there for the taking. As long as we don't get in our own way.
Yankees, Mariners and Red Sox are there for the taking. As long as we don't get in our own way.
Dr.Funk
Registered User
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Muston Atthews
Bunch of Bangerz
metafour
Registered User
- Apr 6, 2008
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This is actually a much bigger L for Kumar Rocker. The #11 pick in next year's draft is worth more than a potentially injured Kumar Rocker for the Mets. The bigger loss here for the Mets is that they didn't give themselves any backup plans for the overslot money that they put away for Rocker's overslot agreement.
For Rocker, he is entering dangerous territory. He passed up first round money out of HS to go to Vanderbilt, which looked like a good decision for most of his time at Vanderbilt. But now he won't sign again and who knows what the status of his elbow is. If he needs TJ surgery, then he's not pitching at all next season. If it's a "minor tear" or something to that effect, then he probably tries to rehab and rebuild his stock next season: but that often times just ends in a full tear eventually, and you know that teams in next year's draft are going to have huge red-flags on his health. Even if he's healthy enough to play, pitching with a "questionable elbow" will likely impact his stuff/performance as it did this season.
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