World Cup: Pool Scenarios

[Canada4Gold]

Edit: Updated scenarios

Sweden is 1st

If Russia wins tomorrow they're 2nd

If Finland wins tomorrow North America is 2nd

and Europe/Canada game tonight is for 1st place with the loser getting 2nd but we all knew that anyway

Ignore initial scenarios below

These scenarios were just made by hand by me. Small possibility they could be wrong, if they are please inform me of this. If you want a clarification why I have a scenario the way it is feel free to ask. These scenarios are made under the assumption that if 1 tiebreaker step breaks the tie between all 3 teams that's how they are ranked, if 1 tiebreaker step differentiates 1 team while the other 2 remain tied the other 2 revert to h2h. The Standings page on the WCOH website didn't clarify what happens in this situation, but it doesn't make sense to continue to h2h GD and GF road when 1 team is no longer in the tie anymore.

Sweden will finish 1st if...
- They beat North America
- They lose in OT/SO to North America

Sweden will finish 2nd if...
- They lose to North America in regulation and Russia doesn't beat Finland in regulation
- They lose to North America in regulation, Russia beats Finland in regulation and combined goal difference in these 2 results is no more than 3(eg: Sweden lose by 2, Russia win by 1)

Sweden will not make the Semis if...
- They lose to North America in regulation and Russia beats Finland in regulation and combined goal difference in these 2 results is 4 or more(eg: Sweden lose by 2, Russia win by 2)

North America will finish 1st if...
- They beat Sweden in regulation, and Russia doesn't beat Finland in regulation
- They beat Sweden in regulation, and Russia beats Finland in regulation, and Russia doesn't beat Finland by 2 more goals than North America Beats Sweden by(eg: North America wins 4-2, Russia wins 5-2)

North America will finish 2nd if...
- They beat Sweden in regulation, and Russia beats Finland in regulation, and Russia beats Finland by 2 more goals than North America Beats Sweden by(eg: North America wins 3-2, Russia wins 5-2)
- They beat Sweden in OT/SO and Russia doesn't beat Finland
- They lose to Sweden in OT/SO and Finland beats Russia in regulation
- They lose to Sweden in regulation, Finland beats Russia in regulation, they don't lose to Sweden by 2 more goals than Russia loses to Finland(eg: North America loses 4-1, Russia loses 4-2), and the combined difference of both results is not more than 7(eg: North America loses 3-1, Finland wins 5-0)

North America will not make the semis if...
- They beat Sweden in OT/SO, and Russia beats Finland
- They lose to Sweden and Russia beats Finland
- They lose to Sweden and Russia loses in OT/SO to Finland
- They lose to Sweden in regulation, Russia loses to Finland in regulation, and they lose by 2 more goals than Russia loses by(North America loses 5-1, Russia loses 3-1)
- They lose to Sweden in regulation, Finland beats Russia in regulation, and the combined difference in these results is 8 or more(North America loses 5-1, Finland wins 5-1)

Russia will finish 1st if...
- They beat Finland in regulation, North America beats Sweden in regulation and they beat Finland by 2 or more goals than North America beats Sweden by(eg: Russia wins 6-2, North America wins 3-1)

Russia will finish 2nd if...
- They beat Finland, and Sweden beats North America
- They beat Finland, and Sweden lose to North America in OT/SO
- They beat Finland in regulation, North America beats Sweden in regulation, the combined goal difference of these 2 games is more than 4(eg: Russia wins 3-1, North America wins 3-1) and they don't beat Finland by 2 or more goals than North America beats Sweden by(eg: Russia wins 5-2, North America wins 3-1)
- They lose to Finland in OT/SO, and Sweden beats North America
- They lose to Finland in regulation, North America loses Sweden in regulation, and they lose by 1 or 2 goals, while North America loses to Sweden by 2 more goals than Russia loses by(eg: Russia loses 2-1, NA loses 4-1)

Russia will not make the semis if...
- They lose to Finland and North America beats Sweden
- They lose to Finland in regulation and North America loses to Sweden in OT/SO
- They lose to Finland in regulation by 3 or more goals
- They lose to Finland in regulation by 2 or less goals, North America loses to Sweden and North America don't lose by 2 or more goals than Russia loses by(eg: North America loses 4-1, Russia loses 4-2)
- They beat Finland in OT/SO, and North America beats Sweden in regulation
- They beat Finland in regulation, North America beats Sweden in regulation and the combined goal difference in these 2 results is 3 goals or less(eg: Russia wins 2-1, Sweden loses 3-1)

Finland cannot finish 1st

Finland will finish 2nd if...
- they beat Russia in regulation by 3 or more goals, Sweden beats North America in regulation, and the combined goal difference in these 2 matches in 8 or more(eg: Finland wins 5-1, Sweden wins 5-1)

Finland will not make the semis if...
- The above result doesn't happen

Click to read more...

 

[ViD]

I think everyone will be quite happy if exciting Russian and NA teams qualify and boring Sweden team goes home.

No offense.

Also,

Russia will finish 1st if...
- They beat Finland in regulation, North America beats Sweden in regulation and they beat Finland by 2 or more goals than North America beats Sweden by(eg: Russia wins 6-2, North America wins 3-1)

I thought the two way tie breaker is the head to head game? Which Russia had won...

 

[Canada4Gold]

I think everyone will be quiet happy if exciting Russian and NA teams qualify and boring Sweden team goes home.

No offense.

Also,



I thought the two way tie breaker is the head to head game? Which Russia had won...

In that scenario it's a 3 way tie between NA, RUS, SWE. So the tiebreaker is goal differential which Russia is currently 2 behind North America so they would need to win by 2 more than North America wins by(to even up the GD, and then revert to the h2h game which Russia won as they remain tied and ahead of Sweden) or win by 3 or more than North America wins by to win on GD outright.

 

[Stuzchuk]

ok... this is as complicated as NFL playoffs scenario on week 16/17... I'd rather wait and see

 

[ViD]

In that scenario it's a 3 way tie between NA, RUS, SWE. So the tiebreaker is goal differential which Russia is currently 2 behind North America so they would need to win by 2 more than North America wins by(to even up the GD, and then revert to the h2h game as they remain tied and ahead of Sweden) or win by 3 or more than North America wins by to win on GD outright.

my bad, thanks for clarification.

 

[Canada4Gold]

ok... this is as complicated as NFL playoffs scenario on week 16/17... I'd rather wait and see

Luckily the other pool should be much easier. Goal differential can't come into play at all and if Canada wins tonight then it's a straight game for 1st place between Canada and Europe wit USA and Czechs eliminated.

These scenarios will also get much simpler tomorrow after the NA/SWE game

 

[Stuzchuk]

Luckily the other pool should be much easier. Goal differential can't come into play at all and if Canada wins tonight then it's a straight game for 1st place between Canada and Europe wit USA and Czechs eliminated.

These scenarios will also get much simpler tomorrow after the NA/SWE game

I know... I was just being sarcastic but AWESOME work, very well detailed explainations

 

[VictorLustig]

I think everyone will be quite happy if exciting Russian and NA teams qualify and boring Sweden team goes home.

No offense.

Also,



I thought the two way tie breaker is the head to head game? Which Russia had won...

Boring? Sweden created more offense than the Russians.

 

[fastvoteman]

I imagine there are some sort of scenarios where a team will have to pull their goalie with a 5-2 lead or something crazy like that. The fans would be wondering what the hell was going on!

 

[Phil McKraken]

So basically, after two wins we're still in a must win situation tomorrow, considering that Russia will face a Finland with nothing to play for.

At least we only need to equal NA in regulation to win the group and bypass Canada in the semis, so I guess that's something.

 

[tze]

So basically, after two wins we're still in a must win situation tomorrow, considering that Russia will face a Finland with nothing to play for.

I don't think Finland will NOT play with everything they got.

If Finland AND Sweden win 4-0 (or any other combination with 8 more goals scored) they will advance. Wouldn't bet money on it.

 

[777]

Great post, thanks!

 

[Canada4Gold]

I don't think Finland will NOT play with everything they got.

If Finland AND Sweden win 4-0 (or any other combination with 8 more goals scored) they will advance. Wouldn't bet money on it.

Well if Sweden lose then Finland has nothing to play for. I think that's the scenario he's afraid of. They have to get a point, and if they don't then Finland has nothing to play for either and Sweden needs Finland to win or at worse a tight game, and Finland won't really care.

If Sweden win by any score then they don't care if Finland cares or not. They finish 1st.

 

[matsqq]

Well if Sweden lose then Finland has nothing to play for. I think that's the scenario he's afraid of. They have to get a point, and if they don't then Finland has nothing to play for either and Sweden needs Finland to win or at worse a tight game, and Finland won't really care.

If Sweden win by any score then they don't care if Finland cares or not. They finish 1st.

This is bad.
I hope they change the format for the next WC.

 

[SotasicA]

Boring? Sweden created more offense than the Russians.

Sweden plays a slow, controlled, boring style game with hardly any scoring chances created for either team.

Compare that to the bipolar end-to-end action in that North America - Russia game.

Meanwhile Sweden beat Finland 1-0, and also that game against Russia was sleep inducing for 59 minutes.

 

[ViD]

Sweden plays a slow, controlled, boring style game with hardly any scoring chances created for either team.

Compare that to the bipolar end-to-end action in that North America - Russia game.

Meanwhile Sweden beat Finland 1-0, and also that game against Russia was sleep inducing for 59 minutes.

exactly my point

 

[vippe]

I think everyone will be quite happy if exciting Russian and NA teams qualify and boring Sweden team goes home.

No offense.

Also,



I thought the two way tie breaker is the head to head game? Which Russia had won...

Yeah Russia has certainly set the world on fire so far..

Outplayed, Outshot, outchanced but most importantly outscored against Sweden playing far superior hockey.

Russia has played less than 10 minutes of good hockey so far in the tournament. 2 Against Sweden and 7 against NA.

No offense.

 

[Westcoasthabsfan]

I think Sweden and Russia get in from pool b....

 

[bDtKarlsson]

So basically, after two wins we're still in a must win situation tomorrow, considering that Russia will face a Finland with nothing to play for.

At least we only need to equal NA in regulation to win the group and bypass Canada in the semis, so I guess that's something.

It's weird that we might have to win 3 games to advance, while it's also possible that for example Finland advances with 1 win. Russia beating NA did no good for us. I would hate to miss the semi final because of goal difference.

Please Finland do your best to beat Russia!

 

[Paxton Fettel]

This tournament's format is a joke!!!

 

[Scotty B]

It's weird that we might have to win 3 games to advance, while it's also possible that for example Finland advances with 1 win. Russia beating NA did no good for us. I would hate to miss the semi final because of goal difference.

Please Finland do your best to beat Russia!

Finland has scored one goal and allowed six in two games , meaning they're minus five...it would take a minor miracle for Finns to advance...

 

[Lempo]

Finland cannot finish 1st

 

[flaneur]

So basically, after two wins we're still in a must win situation tomorrow, considering that Russia will face a Finland with nothing to play for.

At least we only need to equal NA in regulation to win the group and bypass Canada in the semis, so I guess that's something.

not necessarily. Canada might lose to Europe tomorrow. Which means if Sweden wins their group they would face Canada in the semis.

 

[Lempo]

So basically, after two wins we're still in a must win situation tomorrow, considering that Russia will face a Finland with nothing to play for.

At least we only need to equal NA in regulation to win the group and bypass Canada in the semis, so I guess that's something.

If Russia wins Finland, then everyone (who count at that point) would have two wins, so it's really not like it's unfair or anything. Spoils go to the ones with better goal difference, which was a known thing from the start.

I'd like to think it was a conscious element brought by the organizer to inventice teams to try score a plenty instead of safe play.

 

[bDtKarlsson]

If Russia wins Finland, then everyone (who count at that point) would have two wins, so it's really not like it's unfair or anything. Spoils go to the ones with better goal difference, which was a known thing from the start.

I'd like to think it was a conscious element brought by the organizer to inventice teams to try score a plenty instead of safe play.

We are not used to this kind of tournament where every team is good and you go straight from the group to semi final. If you win 2/3 group stage games in the olympics, you will most certainly advance to the playoffs. In this tournament however, you have to fight to win every game. Though I would hate it if Sweden and Finland wins the next games and one team would advance with only 1 win. Kind of ridiculus.