OT: Pirates Talk: That Skenes guy is okay at teh baseball

[ChaosAgent]

I truly hope every bad thing that would get me banned from this board happens to Nutting and his progeny.

If a Pittsburgher pulled a United Healthcare CEO with Bob, they would be beloved. That is a fact and Bob probably knows it

 

[Empoleon8771]

That Hiles article is very alarming because the implication of both "they'd trade Keller to clear payroll" and "they're not going to be active in free agency, they'll be looking at trades" heavily implies that payroll won't even reach what it did last year. The last time I checked, the Pirates are only a bit below $70 million in money for next year including the arb estimates and pre-arb players. That's why I was using the $20 to $25 million in free agent additions estimate, I figured jumping from $84 million to $90-$95 million was a good estimate. I'm disgusted if this team won't even make that level of commitment.

If they're talking about trading Keller for payroll space, when they already have $14 million just to reach last year's payroll, that just makes me think they're not going to increase payroll from last year. Which makes me just hate this franchise even more. Trading Keller for any reason that isn't:

1. Opening up money to sign Skenes
2. You're getting a legitimately good MLB bat or stuff you can immediately flip for a good MLB bat for him

Is flat out unacceptable.

 

[ImporterExporter]

See, I'm not against moving Keller as it would free up money for Skenes (in theory) AND more importantly bring a better bat than Horwitz (again in theory).

But having already shipped Ortiz, this puts significant pressure on the young arms.

I simply don't trust MLB. I think they've carefully crafted a league where owners like Nutting are more than happy to rake in the tens of millions in net profits every year to actively keep their own team from being a threat while also sending players away at substandard rates to the big market clubs who simply aren't allowed to horde them all to begin with.

 

[ChaosAgent]

That Hiles article is very alarming because the implication of both "they'd trade Keller to clear payroll" and "they're not going to be active in free agency, they'll be looking at trades" heavily implies that payroll won't even reach what it did last year. The last time I checked, the Pirates are only a bit below $70 million in money for next year including the arb estimates and pre-arb players. That's why I was using the $20 to $25 million in free agent additions estimate, I figured jumping from $84 million to $90-$95 million was a good estimate. I'm disgusted if this team won't even make that level of commitment.

If they're talking about trading Keller for payroll space, when they already have $14 million just to reach last year's payroll, that just makes me think they're not going to increase payroll from last year. Which makes me just hate this franchise even more. Trading Keller for any reason that isn't:

1. Opening up money to sign Skenes
2. You're getting a legitimately good MLB bat or stuff you can immediately flip for a good MLB bat for him

Is flat out unacceptable.

Yes, I care primarily about the payroll being $95M+.

If they can trade Keller and reach that figure, I obviously don't mind at all. I think Keller cannot win a playoff game and cannot get good left-handed hitting out. He can eat innings at a 4-4.5ERA with low injury risk which has some value I suppose, but he's totally uninspiring to me and always has been.

 

[MrBrightside]

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah it's sort of a pessimistic all-around situation:

1) As IE says, hypothetically getting a solid bat in exchange for a modest contract like Keller could be fine if we thought the pitching depth would keep rolling, but trading Ortiz already puts pressure on the situation. Trading Keller too would make it worse, even if we just blindly assumed we could sign a FA and get 150 decent enough innings.

2) Trading Jones after having traded Ortiz also doesn't make a ton of sense for similar reasons. Crochet netting a somewhat middling, usual quantity-ish over quality type deal is also a worrying development.

3) Most generally, it seems like there is recognition that this team needs multiple bats to compete, and the underlying implication appears to be that the budget is already pretty maxed out and so in order to do anything, more "breathing room" is necessary.

But if so, it's one step forward and two steps back. This is true even if we somehow used the money for a shocker like Santander, because as much as that would seriously address the major need, a rotation without Ortiz and Keller would be a weakness. It's not realistic at all to expect Chandler to just easily adjust to MLB and be very reliable right away. Something like Jones' season feels like a more optimistic first year for a young pitcher with great stuff, even if it's very arguable that he's a better prospect with a higher ceiling.

We are already currently pretty f***ed, and if this is the kind of mess we're in to try and find improvement, then I just don't see any other conclusion but that we're f***ed twice over.

 

[Empoleon8771]

These numbers are slightly higher than what I saw but yeah it's totally right. They should still have about $15 million to only hit their payroll from last year. Why are you trading Keller to make that $30 million?

If they're trading Keller for a $20 million bat, I'm completely good with that. I keep seeing Bellinger's name out there and I'd be very fine with trading Keller out and bringing Bellinger in. But let's be real, they're not going to do that. They'll probably trade Keller for some contact hitting pre-arb player, go in FA and sign this year's version of Martin Perez for $10 million and not be any better next year.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Yes how do you have the best pitcher in baseball for 3 mire seasons knowing he will sell out the stadium and not commit 100 million in spending minimum

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yes, I care primarily about the payroll being $95M+.

If they can trade Keller and reach that figure, I obviously don't mind at all. I think Keller cannot win a playoff game and cannot get good left-handed hitting out. He can eat innings at a 4-4.5ERA with low injury risk which has some value I suppose, but he's totally uninspiring to me and always has been.

Yeah the more I think about it, the less I care about the idea of trading Keller. It's just frustrating that it's the same old Pirates doing the same old shit they always do.

Keller to Baltimore for Kjerstad makes a lot of sense on paper with Baltimore looking for SP and the Pirates needing an OF. Kjerstad also fits that "high OBP" profile that Cherington seems to love when acquiring batters. I think Baltimore would be adding on top of that as well, but even if that's the primary base, you could then go use $10 million to sign someone else in free agency (probably a guy like Gibson, maybe Heany if you increase that money a bit). I think the team would be better with say Kjerstad in LF and Heany as their #3 starter than Keller as their #3 starter making likely more money than Heany. That said, how much better of a team are you actually? It's really not a needle mover, and that's with me explicitly liking Kjerstad.

Ultimately I won't hate it if they do something like that, but it just frustrates me that it's the same old Pirates once again refusing to spend money. They finally have a legitimate ace and potential best player in baseball, but they'd rather waste him being cheap over putting even a modest investment in the team. If they did that Keller move and also signed Teoscar Hernandez to a 3 year, $75 million deal, I would actually be ecstatic about that. But they won't do that.

 

[TooManyHumans]

I don't want Cherington making any more trades. He is terrible at it. I also don't want him signing any more FAs. He is terrible at that as well. I also don't want Cherington to be the GM of this team. He is terrible at it.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I don't want Cherington making any more trades. He is terrible at it. I also don't want him signing any more FAs. He is terrible at that as well. I also don't want Cherington to be the GM of this team. He is terrible at it.

But, development. Aren't you..."stoked?"

 

[fcfury]

Isn't Skeens a Boras client? If so, he is not going to resign with us

 

[MrBrightside]

Isn't Skeens a Boras client? If so, he is not going to resign with us

No. At least not presently.

 

[MrBrightside]

3 hopeful teams pull off an old-fashioned baseball swap

What does a front office do when it is trying but unable, for whatever reason, to compete in free agency? Make a good, old-fashioned baseball trade, of course.That is what the Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Guardians, and Pittsburgh Pirates agreed to do Tuesday night, executing what became a...

www.thescore.com

 

[Empoleon8771]

Interesting to see that Steamer projects Horwitz at a 119 OPS+ next year, which was the same that Reynolds was at. I know he doesn’t have ideal power you want out of a 1B, but I’d be very happy if he hits where he’s projected to be at.

His projected slash line is .267/.367/.417 for an OPS of .784, which yields a 2 WAR over 113 games. I figure Horwitz plays in more games than that but his results will likely be worse than a 119 OPS+ if he plays more against lefties.

Fangraphs hasn't posted their article on the Pirates side of the trade yet, but they did mention this about Horwitz:

Horwitz, who turned 27 last month, will provide a spark for the Pirates, and quite frankly, he would have for the Guardians, too. He’s nominally a utility infielder, and he played 300 innings of second base in the majors this past year, but our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen describes him as “heavy-footed,” and I think his future is either at first base or in left field. He’s undersized and on the slower side, but put simply, he can hit. He pairs a keen batting eye with excellent bat-to-ball skills; he rarely chases, rarely whiffs, and hits a ton of line drives.

Why did the Guardians move him, then? Well, in keeping with seemingly every Guardians prospect, his power is an open question; he’s toward the bottom of the majors in bat speed and feels to me like a 10- to 15- home run guy on average. That works just fine given the rest of his skillset, though. He’ll probably post OBPs in the upper .300s and record a raft of doubles over the next handful of seasons. Steamer thinks he’ll be 20% above average offensively next year, right in line with his brief major league career so far. The problem is that he didn’t have a place to play for the Guardians, who already boast Josh Naylor and Kyle Manzardo as lefty first basemen.

I figure they're going to play Horwitz at 1B, but playing him in LF is actually something I'd support. His hitting profile works much better in LF and lets you leave open 1B for a pure power guy. A high OBP LFer and a power hitting 1B is likely easier to get than a high OBP 1B and a power LFer. That said, the Pirates have already announced him as a 1B so he's almost assuredly playing 1B.

Fangraphs is also not very high on Ortiz, calling him a "fifth starter/long reliever type". That was just a single line in this article though, so I'm waiting for the longer review that will probably be posted today.

 

[BusinessGoose]

We're so hard up for anything, that a second reynolds at bat would be a god send

I'm not even trying to insult anyone.. I'm just saying, it'll be cool as hell to even get close to that

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I think that would be a good outcome for him and a major upgrade to the offense, though it does seem like he's basically not very usable vs LHP. That said, this allows for the seemingly half-assed Reynolds-to-1B transition, and ultimately I don't know that it's worth getting too up in arms about that, since practically every team does this sort of musical chairs thing with multiple positions and handedness in order to utilize the bench a lot more actively and rotate players in and out.

Ortiz is a somewhat fascinating case, because the pessimistic view on both players is somewhat similar: a meh pitcher who covers some innings with relative stability but isn't really a playoff option etc., and a meh offensive player who is competent enough but no difference maker, especially at premium offensive position within a weak lineup.

But you could say that Horowitz may still have another gear to demonstrate, and you can also say that Ortiz has the raw material to be more than that as a pitcher. It's easy to forget how dominant Ortiz initially looked in MLB, but then he seemed to settle into being a different kind of pitcher last year when he hit his stride.

What still worries me is that of all teams, Cleveland is probably the absolute best at taking a guy who can be argued is a backend/depth type and turning them into a bonafide ace. There are tons of examples of that for them, Kluber, Bieber, McKenzie, etc. Where I've settled with Horowitz and the Pirates is that I hope the Hague connection is the big x-factor and not simply the Cherington connection and Cherington coveting him. The main player I associate as a Cherington covet is Marcano, who is a very different type of player than Horowitz but is somehow he attempted to get multiple times and then ended up being a total bust. At least for now Horowitz has demonstrated success in MLB and projection systems think it's legit to maintain.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah, I think that would be a good outcome for him and a major upgrade to the offense, though it does seem like he's basically not very usable vs LHP. That said, this allows for the seemingly half-assed Reynolds-to-1B transition, and ultimately I don't know that it's worth getting too up in arms about that, since practically every team does this sort of musical chairs thing with multiple positions and handedness in order to utilize the bench a lot more actively and rotate players in and out.

Yeah this is a big reason why I think Billy Cook is a good bet to be on the MLB team, he absolutely mashed lefties last year and he fits the same kind of role that Joe filled for the last 2 years. He can either just be the righty platoon for Horwitz at 1B or he can play RF when Reynolds slides to 1B against a lefty pitcher.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah this is a big reason why I think Billy Cook is a good bet to be on the MLB team, he absolutely mashed lefties last year and he fits the same kind of role that Joe filled for the last 2 years. He can either just be the righty platoon for Horwitz at 1B or he can play RF when Reynolds slides to 1B against a lefty pitcher.

I forgot about Cook. I think they are high on Gorski too, who fits a similar profile.

Any word on Bart/Endy? Would Bart play 1B against lefties?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Agree on Cook, and Bart could definitely play some there. It seems like there's some chance Grandal or another catcher comes back, and if the former does, people will roll their eyes, but if Skenes wants him back, then I think you kinda gotta do it.

I've stopped really having a strong reaction to the merry go round platoon almost everywhere thing, but the central problem always remains that the Pirates prefer to cut one too many corners with it.

I haven't done the deep dive that some others have been doing, but as I see it, there are four main concerns, with the first and most central one still being a major impact bat, presumably for corner OF since Horowitz very much seems like the mostly every day 1B.

Second is SS, which by default is going to IKF but that isn't exactly ideal. Third is some kind of additional SP depth, because we need to alleviate any pressure to fast track Harrington or Chandler (and I say this even granting that I'll be the first to call for Bubba on the opening day roster if he looks good in ST). Fourth is bolstering the bullpen, but that probably just takes the form of finding some more dart throws and hoping for good variance in general, which is a lot of what the BP situation seems to come down to.

All told, short of a shocking signing of Sasaki, I would see a Keller trade instead of any of these concerns being addressed as a major white flag on competing, and I really have trouble understanding why that would happen since presumably another side step or step back will cost Cherington his job. Trading Jones would fall into the same category, but at least in theory you could try and get a true impactful young position player budding star for him. I don't have exact names, but Jones does have the true right tail outcome of somebody like Strider (though I'd say I am in agreement that he doesn't likely get to that gear all the time), so moving him would have to move the needle in some major way.

Just to throw something bat shit out since I keep bringing up Sasaki anyways, trading Jones as a headliner in some kind of Tucker deal where you also get additional, controllable pieces from them would at least raise an eyebrow, even as Tucker is only a rental. But that kind of thing is probably less likely than the already impossible idea of us signing Santander or Hernandez.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

I would have to know what those controllable pieces are......because Cherington has shown he doesn't do well with controllable pieces.

For one year it could be great, so from that standpoint I'm kinda in on it. But that just might be my unwavering desire to see a competitive team clouding my judgement.

They should be able to just go sign Profar and Winker for like 20mil combined. But noooooo

 

[ChaosAgent]

I would have to know what those controllable pieces are......because Cherington has shown he doesn't do well with controllable pieces.

For one year it could be great, so from that standpoint I'm kinda in on it. But that just might be my unwavering desire to see a competitive team clouding my judgement.

They should be able to just go sign Profar and Winker for like 20mil combined. But noooooo

Cherington is bad at GMing, although some here will claim that getting like 3 pitchers including a 1OA negates all that.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I forgot about Cook. I think they are high on Gorski too, who fits a similar profile.

Any word on Bart/Endy? Would Bart play 1B against lefties?

I wouldn't be surprised to see that either, Endy I know has that position flexibility. Like DJ mentioned above, Grandal coming back and Endy being their 3rd catcher/utility guy wouldn't surprise me.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Apparently Mackey was on the Fan and said that he's heard the payroll will just stay the same next year. No increase, no decrease.

It basically just confirms our common feeling / impression, but it's truly ridiculous if so. Skenes is a bonafide star that people go out of their way to see, and beyond that, the only way to increase attendance and revenue generated is by getting people more excited about the team with improvements. Horowitz may end up being a savvy move, and even someone like Kepler could if we get lucky, but no average fan cares about any of that and the headlines eventually saying "No payroll increase while ROY phenom tries for Cy Young" is really going to damper any of that.

Nutting should be publicly shamed. I don't like Cherington at all, but it really does just come down to this. If he's imposed strict budget constraints, then that would explain a rumored willingness to trade Keller. My view is really that it's a Nutting specific problem rather than an MLB problem. Sure, there's an extent to which the ownership is a literal cabal that has a stranglehold on profits by acting in their own interest, but even within the structure of MLB, other small owners like in Milwaukee will at least raise payroll in accordance with their team improving.

And an improvement in the Pirates payroll wouldn't even really be that significant compared to the other teams. It would just get them out of laughing stock territory, which is the bare minimum you should expect if you have legitimate young talent headlined by arguably the best pitcher in baseball and certainly a top-5 guy who has only just gotten started.