OT: Pirates Talk: That Skenes guy is okay at teh baseball

[BusinessGoose]

If horowitz is better than tellez was most of the year, it's an improvement, even losing ortiz

 

[metalan2]

Grotesque to lose Ortiz for a middling 27 year old rookie with 40 rbis.

But it's the bucco way.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

They will have to add another SP, ideally 2 OF options, multiple bullpen options.

If you break 20ish million across say 4-5 players, per season, you're scraping the bottom of the barrel 100%

Outside a miracle and us getting Sasaki on the cheap, Horwitz is probably the best player we'll add this offseason.

This is basically where I've settled too. I don't really have a huge issue with taking the chance on Horowitz in general, since 1) we can spin possible narratives where the profiles of either Oritz or Horowitz wash out and 2) partly for that reason, it might be good not to spend a ton on 1B.

But one of the upshots to Horowitz is that he's a cheap option that profiles as somewhat better than the world historically bad offensive options which have been a mainstay at multiple positions during Ben Cherington's tenure.

The problem is that we all know the cheapness likely won't go anywhere. As far as relevant immediate savings, there's basically no difference between Ortiz and Horowitz anyways, but in terms of anticipated "the Pirates probably aren't spending much money because they never do", I don't really see how this moves the needle.

If we are going to pick up Kepler or somebody like that, adding Horowitz shouldn't really matter for that decision and adding Kepler might be better than Olivares or De La Cruz but it also doesn't really do much. We need a genuine power threat to complement the lineup -- if Horowitz its like he's capable, then he's a high OBP guy with enough thump be be usable in the top-3 of the order (though not ideal) along the Reynolds and Cruz. But even being optimistic about Bart as one of the power options still leaves a big hole that can only really be impactfully filled with a guy like Santander or Hernandez.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I like the idea of adding Kepler and have been vocal about that, but my big concern with adding him is that his bat has been really inconsistent over his career. I don't mean that as in "some years he's good and some years he's bad", which he has also done, but it's more that he's not consistent in what his hitting style is. Earlier in his career he was more of a bad contact power hitter, so his OPS+ was only in the 90s but he was still hitting like 20-25 HRs per season. Last season had a similar OPS+, but with better contact and less power. Even with an equal OPS+, I'd take the more power and lower average over the better average and lower power for what the Pirates need.

He's still probably my #1 target to fill the OF role, but I'd be very disappointed if he wasn't the same bad contact, good power hitter that he was earlier in his career. Getting a middling contact, middling power hitter doesn't solve anything for them.

I know it's not shooting very high, but my hope is that they add a lefty version of Taylor Ward. Basically a 3 WAR, 110 OPS+, 25 HR outfielder with strong corner OF defense.

 

[ImporterExporter]

This is basically where I've settled too. I don't really have a huge issue with taking the chance on Horowitz in general, since 1) we can spin possible narratives where the profiles of either Oritz or Horowitz wash out and 2) partly for that reason, it might be good not to spend a ton on 1B.

But one of the upshots to Horowitz is that he's a cheap option that profiles as somewhat better than the world historically bad offensive options which have been a mainstay at multiple positions during Ben Cherington's tenure.

The problem is that we all know the cheapness likely won't go anywhere. As far as relevant immediate savings, there's basically no difference between Ortiz and Horowitz anyways, but in terms of anticipated "the Pirates probably aren't spending much money because they never do", I don't really see how this moves the needle.

If we are going to pick up Kepler or somebody like that, adding Horowitz shouldn't really matter for that decision and adding Kepler might be better than Olivares or De La Cruz but it also doesn't really do much. We need a genuine power threat to complement the lineup -- if Horowitz its like he's capable, then he's a high OBP guy with enough thump be be usable in the top-3 of the order (though not ideal) along the Reynolds and Cruz. But even being optimistic about Bart as one of the power options still leaves a big hole that can only really be impactfully filled with a guy like Santander or Hernandez.

Obviously our FO folks thought Ortiz would regress and/or doesn't have long term SP ability. However, it's a major risk IMO because he did show flashes of being a better than #5 arm. If he can handle a larger workload and maintain a relatively similar output, he's more valuable than Spencer is as a 1B only option. Unless of course SH starts hitting lefties better and can increase the HR total.

Kennedy and Hartle aren't major pieces by any means but both are still legitimate prospects as far as reaching MLB goes. The latter is probably a bullpen arm only but 3 pitchers for SH seems like a bit of an overpay, especially when you consider positions.

There is no point in hoping for Santander or anyone along those lines. You'd have to invest most of the available funds on 1 guy and we need to fill at least 4 spots and probably 5 for the ML roster before the season begins.

Sasaki is the only real prayer in that we theoretically have a near equal shot finananically as the other teams out there. But of course, what points do we sell him on exactly? We have no Japanese presence. We aren't a winning ballclub and location wise, we're way behind the 8 ball in relation to bigger markets, on the coasts, especially west.

The team we have no, is largely the team we'll open the year with. I hope Chandler gets a real shot at making the roster but won't be holding my O2.

 

[TooManyHumans]

Him at DH does clog things

We already have multiple dudes who need hitting practice but go through wildly ineffective streaks on the field

Cutch can not play at all. And he isn't really a good DH either.

I dunno, the team is flawed. Having to keep DH open cause your misfits need to slot in there, it's a bigger problem really.

And there's zero chance he continues to play and it's NOT on the pirates, not at this point.

Just be cool to have like fielders who aren't near the Mendoza Line. Big ask, apparently.

Ideally if they kept Cutch around it would be to pinch hit occasionally. I guess really ideally we'd be so stacked that he had no role on the team. Unfortunately we are not stacked at all with hitters. As it is, Cutch was still one of our better hitters last year, which is definitely a statement about how bad our hitters were and not how good Cutch was. He was barely better than average.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Ideally if they kept Cutch around it would be to pinch hit occasionally. I guess really ideally we'd be so stacked that he had no role on the team. Unfortunately we are not stacked at all with hitters. As it is, Cutch was still one of our better hitters last year, which is definitely a statement about how bad our hitters were and not how good Cutch was. He was barely better than average.

Cutch is 5 homers below Clemente they want him to surpass that.

 

[MrBrightside]

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't really see an issue with McCutchen as the DH, he hits the ball hard when he makes contact and he's very good at getting on base. I'm fine with him continuing to be a leadoff guy but I'd also consider moving him into the 4-6 spot to be a power RBI guy as well.

He's nothing special for DH standards but he's still a good hitter.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I don't really see an issue with McCutchen as the DH, he hits the ball hard when he makes contact and he's very good at getting on base. I'm fine with him continuing to be a leadoff guy but I'd also consider moving him into the 4-6 spot to be a power RBI guy as well.

He's nothing special for DH standards but he's still a good hitter.

And if your a serious team trying to make the playoffs he isn’t an option but if your selling tickets he will pay for himself

 

[Empoleon8771]

And if your a serious team trying to make the playoffs he isn’t an option but if your selling tickets he will pay for himself

McCutchen would have been the DH on multiple playoff teams last year. He's no worse than guys like Martinez (Mets) or Arraez (Padres) at this point and would have been an upgrade on the Brewers, Tigers and Royals. The Royals had to sign a washed up Yuli Guriel to fill their 1B role late in the year last year, McCutchen would have been an obvious upgrade on that.

He's mediocre for DH standards but he's not even close to a problem or reason why this team isn't making the playoffs.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

McCutchen would have been the DH on multiple playoff teams last year. He's no worse than guys like Martinez (Mets) or Arraez (Padres) at this point and would have been an upgrade on the Brewers, Tigers and Royals. The Royals had to sign a washed up Yuli Guriel to fill their 1B role late in the year last year, McCutchen would have been an obvious upgrade on that.

He's mediocre for DH standards but he's not even close to a problem or reason why this team isn't making the playoffs.

Arraez won the nl batting title last season

 

[Empoleon8771]

Arraez won the nl batting title last season

He finished with a 106 OPS+ compared to a 105 OPS+ for McCutchen.

Arraez had 4 HRs last year and 161 of his 200 hits were singles.

 

[MrBrightside]

He finished with a 106 OPS+ compared to a 105 OPS+ for McCutchen.

Arraez had 4 HRs last year and 161 of his 200 hits were singles.

I trust you really aren't arguing that this version of Cutch is as good or better than Arraez.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I trust you really aren't arguing that this version of Cutch is as good or better than Arraez.

No I'm arguing that McCutchen last year wasn't worse than Arraez last year, because Arraez didn't have a good year for his standards.

McCutchen finished with 0.8 WAR in 120 games compared to Arraez finishing with 1.0 WAR in 150 games last year. Arraez winning the batting title doesn't erase that the dude offered even less than the limited power he usually offers. McCutchen obviously isn't a better hitter because Arraez is more normally a 120 OPS+ guy, but he didn't have a good year last year.

 

[BusinessGoose]

I didn't mean to get an argument about cutch started

He's fine for being a fan favorite and about to get some team stat stuff

He doesn't break our season... He's on his extended retirement tour

Ya just wish it were better but that's a pirates life for me

 

[MrBrightside]

Pirates pass on making a Rule V pick, at least in the first round.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

Trading solid assets for 27 year-old AAA trash. God, I hate the Pirates so f***ing damn much.

Best-case scenario he's a soft bat who is the 29th best starting first baseman in the league instead of the 30th. This isn't how you weaponize having a lot of young pitching. But hey, he's pre-arb eligible so he won't cost shit. The only thing that matters to this disgraceful franchise.

 

[MrBrightside]

https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/pirates/2024/12/11/rumors-winter-meetings-mitch-keller-jack-suwinski-bullpen-coach/stories/202412100091

The ultimate goal of trading Keller, per sources, would be to trim payroll while also upgrading other areas on the roster. Multiple sources said the club’s ideal return would be a young, quality major league bat. Keller’s departure would also create more financial flexibility for additional roster moves.

Expectations for 2025 payroll = lower them

 

[ImporterExporter]

Trading solid assets for 27 year-old AAA trash. God, I hate the Pirates so f***ing damn much.

Best-case scenario he's a soft bat who is the 29th best starting first baseman in the league instead of the 30th. This isn't how you weaponize having a lot of young pitching. But hey, he's pre-arb eligible so he won't cost shit. The only thing that matters to this disgraceful franchise.

Tale as old as time.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

I truly hope every bad thing that would get me banned from this board happens to Nutting and his progeny.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

That Hiles article is extraordinarily alarming. Trading Keller = the team is completely and totally cooked.

The simplest interpretation of it is that in order to do any signings, even blah ones who probably won't do much to move the needle like Kepler, requires already-existing salary to be cut.

That means we're f***ed, especially if you anticipate what tends to happen in most of Cherington's MLB trades.

 

[Fogel]

Pirates pass on making a Rule V pick, at least in the first round.

He is only in his arb 1 year so quite a bit of control and the White Sox still can't get any of the Red Sox top 3 prospects? Yeesh.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Trading solid assets for 27 year-old AAA trash. God, I hate the Pirates so f***ing damn much.

Best-case scenario he's a soft bat who is the 29th best starting first baseman in the league instead of the 30th. This isn't how you weaponize having a lot of young pitching. But hey, he's pre-arb eligible so he won't cost shit. The only thing that matters to this disgraceful franchise.

This is just a factually incorrect evaluation of Horwitz.

 

[WickedWrister]

I'm not fundamentally opposed to trading Keller if the return is fantastic, it's just depressing that the first place we look to trim costs is a $15m AAV pitcher - not even top 30 highest paid at his position. He's the only player on our roster making a top 100 salary (91st).