OT: Pirates Talk: That Skenes guy is okay at teh baseball

[Empoleon8771]

Most of the positive moves that this organization tends to make feel like step 1 or even step 0 to something that needs to be bigger.

Clearing the roster spots of guys who aren't going to make an impact (or worse) like BDLC or Joe is a good thing. Purely stating the obvious, but the needed next step is finding something on offense that is going to be actual impact.

Even if we take a swing at a BDLC/Joe type reclamation/upside who is two years younger, that's not enough. Personally, I am pessimistic that we'll do anything like that. I don't have the energy to dream up potential possible scenarios -- it's signing Santander, or boldly figuring out some way to trade a guy like Jones or Chandler for a meaningful bat, etc. We'll see.

First of all, welcome back. Was wondering where you had gone.

I agree with you generally, but the reason I’d go with a reclamation/upside to replace DLC is because it gives you more money to use elsewhere. This team has quite a few holes it needs to address and Nutting wouldn’t approve the money needed to fill all of them in free agency. The appeal of going for someone like Hays in my eyes is that it fills a roster spot with a legitimate MLBer with legitimately good upside for not super expensive.

It’s a dream scenario, but I’d be hoping to sign Hays to like a 1 year, $5 million deal and Walker to a 3 year, $60 million deal. Go cheap with Hays to fill the RF spot to go big at 1B.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Chapmen and Perez made 18 million combined that should be enough for a hitter
Taylor 4 million to a reclamation OF
Plus 5 million to cutch bare minimum

 

[ImporterExporter]

There is more chance of me becoming an MLB GM than Nutting forking out 60 million over 3 years for a 1B. And I love Walker. Wish we'd actually target him. We won't.

Read the room, the history, and the owner.

The honest to goodness name they should be throwing every penny at is Roki Sasaki. We do actually have a chance to compete for him given he's coming out of Japan early but I'm also not foolish enough to think we'd have any pitch that could get him here.

It's a rare case of where money isn't the problem.

The Pirates just blow ass.

They cut people late in the year (Rowdy), then lie about it to the media and dumbass fanbase, over a couple hundred K owed.

There is talent to be better. There really f***ing is.

We just have a cheap and moronic owner who knows or cares nothing about the game. And that filters down through the rest of the org.

Until they prove me wrong, I'm right.

 

[Fogel]

There is literally no reason not to throw the entire international pool at Sasaki even if you have to break on some unspoken agreements. A possible #1 at ~4.75M and cost controlled like a rookie? All teams should be in on that and it isn't mind numbingly expensive so this could actually be a possible Pirates move since it can be fairly inexpensive. Hell, it would even be worth executing some trades to try to get more international space even if you whiff on signing him. Bednar was paid 4.15M this past year so he would be a little more than him. Skenes and Sasaki would be nuts and such a draw.

 

[Empoleon8771]

There is literally no reason not to throw the entire international pool at Sasaki even if you have to break on some unspoken agreements. A possible #1 at ~4.75M and cost controlled like a rookie? All teams should be in on that and it isn't mind numbingly expensive so this could actually be a possible Pirates move since it can be fairly inexpensive. Hell, it would even be worth executing some trades to try to get more international space even if you whiff on signing him. Bednar was paid 4.15M this past year so he would be a little more than him. Skenes and Sasaki would be nuts and such a draw.

The reason to not do that is that he already basically has a deal done with the Dodgers and the Pirates aren't going to get him over the Dodgers.

 

[MrBrightside]

Angels having a very on brand offseason thus far, overpaying for meh veterans.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm so happy to have the SP depth the Pirates have solely because we won't ever have to discuss signing a mid rotation starter in free agency for a while

Speaking of SP, I just saw that Jones did accrue the full year of service last year in the MLB, so I believe that also means he'll be a FA for the 2030 season. I wasn't sure if his rehab time was considered an injury demotion or just a normal demotion, but it looks like he also accrued the full year. It's not the end of the world and it's something they can work around (I figure Jones will have some sort of cold spell that they'll send him to the minors to recover on next year), but it's not ideal to have both Skenes and Jones hitting FA in the same year.

 

[Fogel]

The reason to not do that is that he already basically has a deal done with the Dodgers and the Pirates aren't going to get him over the Dodgers.

If it was the Dodgers, he could sign now when they have by the most international money left vs. everyone having closer to 5-7M when the 2025 pool opens up in January. For Sasaki, the difference of between 2024 and 2025 international money is pretty insignificant when compared to his potential off field endorsements which might be hampered if he was with Ohtani and Yamammoto.

 

[ImporterExporter]

The reason to not do that is that he already basically has a deal done with the Dodgers and the Pirates aren't going to get him over the Dodgers.

And yet you believe Nutting will spend a franchise record, 20 million per year, to sign Christian Walker.

Sasaki won't come here because we have no pitch to get him here. It's not monetary.

 

[Empoleon8771]

And yet you believe Nutting will spend a franchise record, 20 million per year, to sign Christian Walker.

Sasaki won't come here because we have no pitch to get him here. It's not monetary.

How does that have anything to do with what I said?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't think the Pirates will get Sasaki (though I agree with Fogel that we should try to do whatever we can), but I honestly do think there is a pitch to get Sasaki on the Pirates. It's Paul Skenes.

I was one of, if not the most vocal anti-FO people in terms of the decision to start Skenes in the minors. I will be for Chandler if he looks good in ST but that's a topic for another day. It's possible to try and make a counterfactual argument that Skenes would have had the same exact success if he had skipped the minors assignment this year (and effectively skipped the minors altogether, given that his post-draft appearances were closer to a PR tour), but we'll never know.

He had the space and time to iron out his approach, get comfortable with sequencing, sharpen the new pitch, etc. It's pretty much impossible to argue that the results could have been any better. I barely feel the need to type out the rest of the thought -- he legitimately contended for Cy Young and will likely be looked at as a top-1 or 2 favorite headed into next season.

The Pirates pitch is as simple as the money basically being a wash wherever he goes and the fact that we had a similar situation with the most hyped pitching prospect in 20 years and have safeguarded his transition into young phenom. I continue to think that the Pirates are worth criticizing on tons of fronts, but it's hard to find much to really gripe about given how the whole situation turned out.

I have not followed all the ins and outs of Sasaki or much else this offseason, so I don't know exactly what's going on with him. I haven't seen anything about a landing spot that's more than rumor. If he's essentially going to have a somewhat-typical rookie contract type situation, with the similar-to-Skenes big payday awaiting after it ends, then I think there's a pretty strong argument that development and best situation for his career should be a high priority. There's no denying that there are other teams that have had success and have better resources, etc., but it's also the case that a guy like Yamamoto had some real ups and downs, though he's a harder comparison since he's slightly older.

Some degree of it can be chalked up to Skenes just being a 1/1 type of player, but regardless, there's much more of a level playing field here if the player wants to make sure he gets the best development possible. The Pirates pitch is that they'll help him transition to MLB as the best pitcher possible which will set himself up for the same kind of long career that a typical amateur draft player wants.

 

[BusinessGoose]

I just want them to show they can add $20mil

They really need to add 40 and we could legit go for NL Central....

I know, I know... I'll begin hoping in one hand and shitting in the other to see which fills up first

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It really is pretty much that simple. Sasaki is in some ways a kind of weird loophole to what they need to do, since acquiring him would not really be any kind of financial strain and assuming he's as good as advertised would give you an insane competitive advantage with two premium pitchers for peanuts along with a relatively strong stable and pitching system behind it.

Still, I'm not gonna raise an eyebrow until we see some kind of wild rumor about the possibility. The non-$ dynamics are always hard to just do guesswork about. It's possible Sasaki will want to go to a market like LA or Seattle that has a lot of tradition for Japanese players. It's possible that he wouldn't want to be in Yamamoto's shadow in LA and so pivots to SD (who has a pretty strong pitching program as well) or elsewhere. By the same token of not wanting to be in Yamamoto's shadow, he could find the Pirates' pitching success appealing but not want to be overshadowed by the most hyped and famous young USA pitcher in forever...

All of that is basically just guesswork.

In any case, part of why I am less enthused about this offseason is basically that it's as clear cut as ever what this team needs to do - spend $ to improve the offense - and that's basically the most surefire thing that Nutting won't green light.

Pitching has actually been a successful avenue to go cheap and for reclamations (and on this front I like taking a stab at Strzlecki for cheap in the bullpen, his stuff is nasty). We are 0 for a million in trying the same thing with bats, at best finding a guy who has some success for a month or so. At worst, we are riding a wave of momentum and don't have the firepower to acquire the impact, controllable young bat so we trade for his teammate who ends up so awful as the team craters that he isn't even tendered a contract in the offseason.

It's pretty dire straights and is the kind of thing that only moves in the opposite direction by planting a flag and doing something, even if it's a perceived overpay or has some sizable "risk" (though the only actual risk IMO is the risk of continuing to blow the gift of having the best pitcher in baseball). That's essentially signing Christian Walker or Anthony Santander, and that's only step 1.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Lol, I'd say that maybe this means they won't go after Sasaki/aren't getting him, but the way the Dodgers operate, you never know.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Well, the Sell The Team sentiment of pirates fans has been seen by the press all the way here in CA

I'm sure it won't matter

But, if you're local, keep beating that drum

Nutting sucks

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Well, the Sell The Team sentiment of pirates fans has been seen by the press all the way here in CA

I'm sure it won't matter

But, if you're local, keep beating that drum

Nutting sucks

Not sure selling the team fixes anything baseball needs a floor and a salary cap

 

[BusinessGoose]

Not sure selling the team fixes anything baseball needs a floor and a salary cap

Yes.

But.... That's just forcing the spending that they could voluntarily already be spending

They've been like bottom 5 in payroll for 30+ years

 

[MrBrightside]

I really don't understand why people all seem to think it has to be either Nutting is a cheap owner who doesn't spend enough or the economics of baseball are broken and getting worse every day. Both of these things can be true at the same time, and they both seem very obviously true.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I just want the Pirates to be able to spend money at a reasonable level for the money the organization takes in and be competitive. If they have a $130 million payroll and are consistently sitting in the 85-95 win range and making the playoffs, I'm completely content with that.

The economics of baseball makes me think it's pointless to hope that this team can be a top spender and championship contender. I just want them to be good and spend what they can spend based on the market size.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Yup. ESPECIALLY right now, I think $115 gets you fighting the Brewers for first, $130 could have you doing something. The division is full of chaos and we're content to drown slowly treading water

That would have PNC rocking if we were winning. But they probably think the revenue sharing "not to be used for profit" profit outweighs the obvious merch and ticket sales increases.

We need to pay someone for consistent skill and talent and stop hoping to catch lightning in a bottle (yes, guys on big contracts are still risks, I know)

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Yup. ESPECIALLY right now, I think $115 gets you fighting the Brewers for first, $130 could have you doing something. The division is full of chaos and we're content to drown slowly treading water

That would have PNC rocking if we were winning. But they probably think the revenue sharing "not to be used for profit" profit outweighs the obvious merch and ticket sales increases.

We need to pay someone for consistent skill and talent and stop hoping to catch lightning in a bottle (yes, guys on big contracts are still risks, I know)

According to spotrack 70 million would get us ti 115. Does that buy you 4 hitters to support the pitching

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Yes.

But.... That's just forcing the spending that they could voluntarily already be spending

They've been like bottom 5 in payroll for 30+ years

Because theyre bottom 5 in revenue for 30 years. Even if it is conceded theyre not spending as much as they could. Its still nowhere near equitable.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Because theyre bottom 5 in revenue for 30 years. Even if it is conceded theyre not spending as much as they could. Its still nowhere near equitable.

And they're subsidized by the LA's of the world so that bottom 5 revenue doesn't actually mean what they want people to think it does.

MLB and the big markets pay off people like Nutting to not spend more.

The big markets don't want competition. Nobody in power does. It's truly that simple.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The Pirates payroll is only $42 million right now because it only counts the 4 players actually signed to deals for next year (Reynolds, Keller, IKF and Hayes). With including the arb estimates that they didn't non-tender, that takes them up to about $57 million with 10 players. Filling the remaining 16 spots with league minimum players brings that up to about $70 million.

Being realistic, the Pirates likely only have at most $30 million to add to their payroll, which brings them up to a $100 million payroll. They went from $74 million in 2023 to $84 million in 2024, I figure that $100 million estimate for 2025 is pretty reasonable. I'd expect $95 million as a more realistic bet, though.

Before any injuries (which there will obviously be) or additions, I think they're sitting with something like:

SP: Skenes, Keller, Jones, Falter and Ortiz
RP: Bednar, Santana, Holderman, Oviedo, Mlodzinski, Nicolas, Moreta and Strzelecki

C: Bart
1B: Triolo
2B: Gonzales
SS: IKF
3B: Hayes
LF: Reynolds
CF: Cruz
RF: Suwinski
DH: Yorke
Bench: Endy, Palacios, Cook and Bae

They probably have about $25 million plus $800k times how many players you add to fill out this roster (since you'd be sending down $800k players).

 

[Empoleon8771]

Because I'm bored, here's what I'd do with that $25 million realistic estimate based on the Fangraph contract projections:

1. Sign Christan Walker to a 3 year, $18 million AAV deal and subtract Bae from the MLB roster (adds $17.2 million to the payroll)
2. Sign Jeff Hoffman to a 2 year, $10 million AAV and subtract Strzelecki from the MLB roster (adds $9.2 million to the payroll)
3. Swap Hayes and Ceddanne Rafaela with adding whatever picks/prospects needed to complete that swap (subtracts $6 million from payroll)
4. Re-sign McCutchen to a 1 year, $5 million deal and remove Palacios from the MLB roster (adds $4.2 million to payroll).

That's a net of $24.6 million, it's not quite improving the offense as much as I'd want but it's likely about all you can do with the offense while also adding a bullpen arm.

That 3rd point is an interesting one, it's two defense first with a perceived higher offensive upside being swapped for each other. Rafaela got n 8 year, $50 million deal from Boston and hasn't hit well at the major league level yet (82 OPS+), but he offers 2B/SS/OF position flexibility rather than purely 3B like Hayes. I've seen rumors that they're planning on moving Daevers to 1B because he's horrid defensively (-6 OAA last year at 3B).

The Pirates would have to add because Rafaela is 24 while Hayes is about to be 28,, but the two are owed about equal money (Rafaela is owed $47 million guaranteed and $59 million potential, Hayes is owed $43 million guaranteed and $49 million potential) and both fall under the "defense first player not hitting their projected offensive ceiling" category. I do have questions about how high Rafaela's offensive upside is, Fangraphs really doesn't like his hitting tools (40/45/45 contact/gap power/raw power tools) but he's an elite CF defender and fast as hell.