Value of: Pick Value for $ Retention

[Junohockeyfan]

Curious everyone's thoughts on the value of pure $ retention or pure capdumps in terms of picks.

To me, the minimum value is a 3rd round pick just to use up a retention slot. Then it depends on the value of retention / capdump and duration. Below are my thoughts on retention values based on averages from past trades:

0 - 1M = 3rd round pick
1M - 2.5M = 2nd round pick
2.5M - 4M = 2nd round pick + up to 3rd round pick
4M - 6M = 2nd + 2nd / up to 1st round pick
>6M = 1st round pick +

With additional years retained, the value increase by a factor of ~0.5 - 0.75 x per year of the year 1 value. With the cap increasing, the range values may also go up.

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[EK392000]

AAV can differ from the actual salary that needs to be retained (e.g. in the case of a front loaded contract or a big signing bonus).

At the deadline, AAV is retained to facilitate the deal but a large portion of the salary has already been paid.

How would that be reflected in terms of pick compensation?

 

[Junohockeyfan]

AAV can differ from the actual salary that needs to be retained (e.g. in the case of a front loaded contract or a big signing bonus).

At the deadline, AAV is retained to facilitate the deal but a large portion of the salary has already been paid.

How would that be reflected in terms of pick compensation?

I think that's a good point and actual salary does play a role to some extent.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Actually salary plays the only role. That's the only thing that matters.


We've also seen plenty of retained salary trades for far less then a 3rd round pick lol.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Actually salary plays the only role. That's the only thing that matters.


We've also seen plenty of retained salary trades for far less then a 3rd round pick lol.

In multi-year contracts / dumps, AAV plays a greater role. I think both play a equal role.

 

[Prairie Habs]

Actually salary plays the only role. That's the only thing that matters.


We've also seen plenty of retained salary trades for far less then a 3rd round pick lol.

Actual salary plays a role, but it's crazy to say it plays the only role. Cap clearly matters more to contenders.

Most retained salary deals are only mid picks, butbthats because those are mostly done at the deadline when leftover cap is worthless if you don't use it. If a deal were to be done now it would be much more expensive, especially if it involves multiple years.

 

[Bishop7979]

I feel like length of the deal and where the team who is taking the player is in terms of competition level would be bigger factors moreso than the money owed ins some cases.

Like, if a player doesn't have any movement protection, sending 4mil on a one year deal to a team like the sharks, who one would imagine would use that to get closer to the cap min without devoting money to overpaying a guy on a multi year deal just to hit the cap floor, would be less expensive vs a guy with a clause where he can remove ten teams from potential destinations and a team like Pittsburgh is one of the few that can and will take his hit.

 

[mouser]

Approximately:

1st - $5m
2nd - $2m
3rd - $800k
4th - $500k
5th - $250k
6th - $125k

This is all actual cash, which is usually much more important than cap space for the team taking on the real dolalrs.

 

[Djp]

Curious everyone's thoughts on the value of pure $ retention or pure capdumps in terms of picks.

To me, the minimum value is a 3rd round pick just to use up a retention slot. Then it depends on the value of retention / capdump and duration. Below are my thoughts on retention values based on averages from past trades:

0 - 1M = 3rd round pick
1M - 2.5M = 2nd round pick
2.5M - 4M = 2nd round pick + up to 3rd round pick
4M - 6M = 2nd + 2nd / up to 1st round pick
>6M = 1st round pick +

With additional years retained, the value increase by a factor of ~0.5 - 0.75 x per year of the year 1 value. With the cap increasing, the range values may also go up.

At deadline for rentals by a third party broker...is directly related to real dollars the team pays

>$650K 1st round pick
>$400K is a 2nd
>$250K is a 3rd


Itd different if trading team is eating 50% and want to move them for something

No team does s pass through retention on a multiyear contract. It hasnt happen yet iirc

In multi-year contracts / dumps, AAV plays a greater role. I think both play a equal role.

The only times teams have retained 50% on multiyear contracts it to unload s pkayer or they want something better in return

 

[Djp]

AAV can differ from the actual salary that needs to be retained (e.g. in the case of a front loaded contract or a big signing bonus).

At the deadline, AAV is retained to facilitate the deal but a large portion of the salary has already been paid.

How would that be reflected in terms of pick compensation?

That's directly related to 3rd party pas through and what comp they get.

ROR from st louis had a $1M salary which made minnestos actual cost around $63000 in real salary. Minn got as 4yh or 5th round pick.

Tarasenko to the rangers' he had actual salary near cap hit so no team would doa pass through without getting s 2nd

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Actual salary plays a role, but it's crazy to say it plays the only role. Cap clearly matters more to contenders.

Most retained salary deals are only mid picks, butbthats because those are mostly done at the deadline when leftover cap is worthless if you don't use it. If a deal were to be done now it would be much more expensive, especially if it involves multiple years.

Contenders are not the ones retaining. They're the ones acquiring a player with retained salary and/or the ones dumping a bad contract. It's the team taking on the cap dump or trading a player with retention who care, and for them its the real $ cost of the transaction that matters. With retention slot considerations being another small factor.


@mouser pretty much covers it extremely well including the real $ value of the draft picks. We've got a very well established history of these deals at this point.