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Player Discussion Pavel Buchnevich: Part VI

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All this talk about giving him the Arviddson contract, and then the pushback of "he shouldn't get above 4.5M AAV"

Folks...the Arvidsson contract is 7x4.25

With the cap increasing, it's okay to go a little bit bigger on AAV here. 7x4.75 would be great. Even 7x5.

5M AAV signing at a 83.5M cap is just under 6%

I think it's very reasonable.
 
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You bridge players who are unlikely to be much more then what they are, the players that will cost approximately the same to re-sign after that bridge. You go longterm with players that are likely to command a significantly higher cap hit in 1-3 years.

Pionk goes in the first group, Buchnevich in the second group.
 
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ManUtdTobbe said:
You bridge players who are unlikely to be much more then what they are, the players that will cost approximately the same to re-sign after that bridge. You go longterm with players that are likely to command a significantly higher cap hit in 1-3 years.

Pionk goes in the first group, Buchnevich in the second group.
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Bridge deals are for players who haven't consistently proven they can play at high levels. Buch has played great for a month but that doesn't mean he won't play uninspired hockey again next year. Bridge him till he proves himself more than a month.

Imagine he went back to his unmotivated self, you want to give a player a 7 year deal at 5.5M to score 15 goals and 35-40 points? That deal would look brutal and we would never be able to move it.

Just because the cap goes up doesn't mean we can be reckless with our spending.
 
His rate stats over the last 2 seasons are great, the narrative that he's been "unmotivated" is mostly just unwarranted. Most players are streaky, you pay for the future, he's very likely to be much more expensive to sign long term in 1-3 years so why wait? Would be poor management to bridge him.
 
ManUtdTobbe said:
His rate stats over the last 2 seasons are great, the narrative that he's been "unmotivated" is mostly just unwarranted. Most players are streaky, you pay for the future, he's very likely to be much more expensive to sign long term in 1-3 years so why wait? Would be poor management to bridge him.
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In his career he has scored 1.83 pts/60. That's better than guys like Tatar, Granlund, Larkin, Pacioretty, Voracek, Kopitar, Zibanejad, Hertl etc. have scored at in that same time frame. He already is a proven scorer. In fact, of the 133 forwards to have at least 1.70 pts/60 in that time frame he is 8th from the bottom in average ice time.

That is actually the ideal player you go long term on. A player who has scored at very strong rates but his raw numbers are low because of usage. Provided the player doesn't want to go year to year and bet on himself (which the vast majority won't because the risk of injury/bad year is not really worth giving up a guaranteed long term deal for someone who hasn't made much money yet) that is exactly the type of player you can get cheaper than he is worth since contracts are very strongly related to raw numbers.
 
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ManUtdTobbe said:
His rate stats over the last 2 seasons are great, the narrative that he's been "unmotivated" is mostly just unwarranted. Most players are streaky, you pay for the future, he's very likely to be much more expensive to sign long term in 1-3 years so why wait? Would be poor management to bridge him.
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No proof of that. I want to see more. He's played literally 1 good month and we are ready to throw him a sack of money for 7 years. No thank you.
 
ManUtdTobbe said:
His rate stats over the last 2 seasons are great, the narrative that he's been "unmotivated" is mostly just unwarranted. Most players are streaky, you pay for the future, he's very likely to be much more expensive to sign long term in 1-3 years so why wait? Would be poor management to bridge him.
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I agree that a bridge deal is not great but neither is 7 years. 4 year deal IMO. He has played at a high enough level that you can be fairly confident the contract won't come back to bite you in the ass but if he does really take the next step, you also signed him long enough to get some great value from that deal.
 
pld459666 said:
I don't think he's more than a low to mid 40's point player.

Nothing over 4.5 per
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People said the same thing about Hayes. Then the Rangers stopped playing him 16-17 mins/game with minimal PP time and what do you know suddenly he's a borderline 60 point player.

Are you aware that of the 271 players who have played 15.5 mins/game total with at least 500 total mins since last year (Buch at 15.01) Buchnevich has the 8th most total points behind only Konecny,Labanc,Vanek,Fiala,C. Smith,Kerfoot, and DeBrusk? Of those only Kerfoot/Labanc/Vanek average less ice time than him.
 
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pld459666 said:
I don't think he's more than a low to mid 40's point player.

Nothing over 4.5 per
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He might not well be, but if Quinn has gotten something out of him that others could not bring out, he could be more.

I wouldn't sign him for $6, for the record. And quite maybe the $4.5 is the right number, but there may be more to his game than has showed up already.
 
Gardner McKay said:
I agree that a bridge deal is not great but neither is 7 years. 4 year deal IMO. He has played at a high enough level that you can be fairly confident the contract won't come back to bite you in the ass but if he does really take the next step, you also signed him long enough to get some great value from that deal.
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4 year deal makes his UFA at 27-28, which would be pretty bad.
 
give him 6 years or so who else are they going to spend money on? If he's a 20 goal 40 point player now when he's had "bad" years then screw it let's lock him up and push him for better years. I dunno man are we going to be picky about a player who produces and is clearly learning but is also clearly one of the most skilled players on the team just because he has some flaws to his game that it looks like he's working through with the coaching staff? We gonna ditch him so we can hope some other random draft pick or player might sniff his production?

Screw it, he's obviously talented and productive and willing to keep trying to improve. He's the kind of player you want to keep around for a rebuilding team.

This team has almost no talent on it at all anymore, keep the young talent it has. Replacing Buchnevich would be much harder than people think
 
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You don't pay people way over what they have earned commensurate with their peers. So I wouldn't give Pavel money that I would give a 55-60 point player. I would be open to giving him in $'s what Spooner or Namestnikov got but that's about it for now and $4 mil per is pretty good. And FWIW I was really doubtful about giving Spooner the deal we gave him--we were lucky to get Strome for him.
 
His contract is going to be the toughest one for us this offseason. Everyone else is pretty clear cut, even DeAngelo is more clear than Buch. If they could do a 1 year and not harm the relationship between parties, I think it could go a long way. We'd get another near 80 games to evaluate if they want to go long term or shorter options.

Additionally, Buch gets to prove over a full season in a top 6 role that he can play and put up his projections. I wouldn't lose sleep over a 1 year 3.5M contract, and they can come to the table starting 1/1 to start hammering out extension talks. It could burn the team, as he might command something like a 5x5 or 6x5.5 deal to sign to an extension IF he produces over the course of next season. Difference is they will know a little more about the player.

With out cap structure, it could be one worth taking.
 
eco's bones said:
You don't pay people way over what they have earned commensurate with their peers. So I wouldn't give Pavel money that I would give a 55-60 point player. I would be open to giving him in $'s what Spooner or Namestnikov got but that's about it for now and $4 mil per is pretty good. And FWIW I was really doubtful about giving Spooner the deal we gave him--we were lucky to get Strome for him.
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That is a solid point and comparison. The comp could be Nametsnikov.
 
ManUtdTobbe said:
4 year deal makes his UFA at 27-28, which would be pretty bad.
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It does but I'm really not concerned. To me, any thing longer is more risk than I feel comfortable with.

Levitate said:
give him 6 years or so who else are they going to spend money on? If he's a 20 goal 40 point player now when he's had "bad" years then screw it let's lock him up and push him for better years. I dunno man are we going to be picky about a player who produces and is clearly learning but is also clearly one of the most skilled players on the team just because he has some flaws to his game that it looks like he's working through with the coaching staff? We gonna ditch him so we can hope some other random draft pick or player might sniff his production?

Screw it, he's obviously talented and productive and willing to keep trying to improve. He's the kind of player you want to keep around for a rebuilding team.

This team has almost no talent on it at all anymore, keep the young talent it has. Replacing Buchnevich would be much harder than people think
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At what dollar amount though? I can't imagine buying out UFA years will bring down the cap hit on that contract...
 
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