Pascal Vincent: Stay or Go?

[CBJWerenski8]

Dean Evason is still out there. I don't know too much about him but his record with Minnesota was great for a supposedly mid roster.

He also, according to Friedman on 32T, really crushed his interviews with Seattle and Winnipeg. Both just had their preferred candidate in house already.

 

[Monstershockey]

what i didn't expect was for them to more or less stay the same (last place in points and goal differential in the east and a +7 improvement in points) despite having relatively better injury luck and a stronger roster overall (added fantilli, voronkov, severson, provorov).


the improvement they did show (read: marginal) is ultimately meaningless given how low the previous team set the bar.

it is, in fact, so meaningless that improving by the same amount (7 points) next season would still almost certainly put them in last place in the eastern conference (73 points – montreal was second worst with 76 points this year)

Again, it depends how you look at things for improvement. Yes, they may have finished last in goal differential, but between Larsen's last season and this year, the GD went from 116 to 63. That's a good improvement, shaving 53 off the total. 5 on 5 it went from 88 to 21.

If you look at some situational numbers, 22-23 they were 11-0-2 when leading after 2. In 23-24, 18-1-7. Although the losses were too high, you can say a combination of coaching and players trying to figure out how to close out games, taking a lead into the third 13 more times than the year before is a nice improvement. Trailing after 2 51 times in 22-23, to 36 last year.

In 22-23 they were outscored in all 3 periods. Last year they improved enough to outscore their opponents in the first, and cut the deficit quite bit in the second, the third and OT though was still a mess.

There were other areas of improvement also, as there were also areas that regressed, but overall it was a little more than marginal. Could it have been better, yeah, but it wasn't as bad as it seemed.

Edit: Goal diff went from 116 to 64, a difference of 52 not 53.

 

[MoeBartoli]

This team needs a prick as a coach after the last couple years of no accountability. Hartley has an unimpressive résumé but this would be the direction to go in.

The team needs a demanding coach who establishes a culture by their relentless style. Torts was that. But he wasn’t a prick. He was damned tough but had compassion and effective EI. Babcock and Hartley are just pricks.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Again, it depends how you look at things for improvement. Yes, they may have finished last in goal differential, but between Larsen's last season and this year, the GD went from 116 to 63. That's a good improvement, shaving 53 off the total. 5 on 5 it went from 88 to 21.

they went from having the worst goal differential in the east to having… the worst goal differential in the east.

they went from having the fewest points in the east to having… the fewest points in the east.

people are too concerned with the things that aren't PV's "fault" but are also giving him innate credit for marginal improvement to performance that are explained by the jackets simply having a better roster last year.

in 22-23, they had Tim Berni, Marcus Bjork and Gavin Bayreuther playing major minutes on the back-end. this year it was Werenski, Severson and Provorov. to go from the lineups they were icing most nights in 22-23 to what they had in 23-24 and only improve by 7 points is a massive blight on PV's coaching record.

 

[Monstershockey]

they went from having the worst goal differential in the east to having… the worst goal differential in the east.

they went from having the fewest points in the east to having… the fewest points in the east.

people are too concerned with the things that aren't PV's "fault" but are also giving him innate credit for marginal improvement to performance that are explained by the jackets simply having a better roster last year.

in 22-23, they had Tim Berni, Marcus Bjork and Gavin Bayreuther playing major minutes on the back-end. this year it was Werenski, Severson and Provorov. to go from the lineups they were icing most nights in 22-23 to what they had in 23-24 and only improve by 7 points is a massive blight on PV's coaching record.

You make it sound like they were icing superstars every night and that it is all Vincents fault. I get you have an agenda against Vincent, so we'll just leave it as it is.

 

[KJ Dangler]

counterpoint:

1. based on everything we know, the waddell announcement is imminent.
2. even if he eventually hires a GM, we can safely assume that the coaching stuff will be his first order of business (buyout window is a few weeks away)
3. some GM + head coach candidates are with teams that are still playing (NHL/AHL playoffs, memorial cup)

there shouldn't be a shortage of candidates for either position, but reading the tea leaves it seems like a HC decision will happen very quickly under waddell.


i think a new battery of decision-makers in those position makes more sense than keeping the guy who lost over 70% of his games last year and wasn't the top choice in either of the last two coaching searches.

sometimes a change at the top can benefit from institutional knowledge/stability in management positions, but aside from CBJ's analytics infrastructure and amateur scouting there's not much benefit from keeping folks in place from the previous regime, given how the last few years went.

the easy rationale for replacing both of them is simply that a new HC shouldn't be shackled to the previous regime's assistants, even if mccarthy generally did okay.

that said, recchi's performance is fireable on its own imo. he was brought in to do two things:

1. get more out of the star players (especially the young ones) as a former star himself
2. run the power play

what they got instead were career-worst seasons from gaudreau and laine, regression from KJ and a league-worst power play.

Agree with most of what you pointed out

they went from having the worst goal differential in the east to having… the worst goal differential in the east.

they went from having the fewest points in the east to having… the fewest points in the east.

people are too concerned with the things that aren't PV's "fault" but are also giving him innate credit for marginal improvement to performance that are explained by the jackets simply having a better roster last year.

in 22-23, they had Tim Berni, Marcus Bjork and Gavin Bayreuther playing major minutes on the back-end. this year it was Werenski, Severson and Provorov. to go from the lineups they were icing most nights in 22-23 to what they had in 23-24 and only improve by 7 points is a massive blight on PV's coaching record.

yep.. Vincent massively underachieved. Powerplay was worse , which is truly remarkable. A defense that had 4 veterans in Werenski , Severson , Provorov and Gud were one of the worst teams defensively in the league . He juggled his lineups nearly every game … people try to chalk it up to load management for the young players , but that wasn’t the case .. many of nights Chinakov , Fantilli , KJ, Voronkov would play 8-10 minutes , even when they were outperforming the veteran players in front of them. He coached afraid … I try to stay sympathetic on Pascal , he wasn’t chosen as coach , he was a last minute fall back , but honestly he and his whole staff should be canned

 

[cbjthrowaway]

You make it sound like they were icing superstars every night and that it is all Vincents fault.

that's not even remotely what I'm saying.

in the 22-23 season:

• andrew peeke was the most-used defenseman on the team by more than 200 minutes (1700 in total)
• tim berni, who was a third pairing defenseman in the AHL, played more than 1,000 minutes
• gavin bayreuther and marcus bjork combined for 1400 minutes of ice time
• sean kuraly averaged 15 minutes of ice time
• they broke a franchise record for man games lost
• the coach was unceremoniously fired the day after the season ended
• they had the worst goal differential and points percentage in the conference
• they won just 25 of 82 games

for comparison, the 23-24 season saw:

• a newly-acquired veteran in ivan provorov lead the team with 1800 minutes played
• a healthy zach werenski play 1700 minutes
• a newly-acquired veteran in damon severson play 1400 minutes
• andrew peeke – their most used defenseman from the year before, who had one of the worst statistical seasons for a defenseman in recent history – barely played, and was then traded
• two rookie centers play well for long stretches (fantilli, voronkov) and another young center (sillinger) bounce back
• significantly fewer man games lost to injury
• a repeat as the worst team in the east by goal diff and points percentage
• a three-win increase, from 25 to 28, over the previous season.

I'm obviously not saying that the 23-24 team was stacked by any stretch of the imagination. I'm pointing out that the players vincent had available on any given night were significantly better than the ones larsen had the year before. that's just a matter of fact.

those factors should have led to significantly more year-over-year improvement. having a healthy werenski alone should add more than three wins to their yearly total.

my point is that when you actually consider the context of their marginal improvements, pascal vincent horribly underachieved.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Other than continuity, I can't make a case for Vincent. Now is the time to add the guy that can develop this team the way new management would want to do it.

 

[koteka]

my point is that when you actually consider the context of their marginal improvements, pascal vincent horribly underachieved.

I don’t disagree with you at all.

But there is one thing that is not often considered on this board, and that is what other teams are doing. I thought we would be bad this season, but not as bad as we were. I assumed we would be better than the Flyers and if a couple of other teams had some bad luck (injury or otherwise), maybe we could be the 13th best team in the Eastern Conference. Well, the Flyers under Torts we’re pretty good and no team fell off enough for us to catch them.

Unless something incredible happens, I expect to be 16th again next season. The current roster is not good enough to suggest otherwise. Maybe Philly will fall back. Maybe we can somehow improve our defense and goalie play. And maybe a couple of young guys step up and become really good centers next season. Maybe guys like Crosby, Malkin, and Ovie will show their age. But the smart money will be on us finishing last in the East again.

For that reason, I can’t get to worked up about the coach. Does PV deserve to be fired? Yes. Does his replacement deserve to start off with a crappy first season because we have the worst team in the Eastern Conference? No.

We need the new regime to have some time to come in, make some moves, and have their moves bear fruit.

 

[Monstershockey]

that's not even remotely what I'm saying.

in the 22-23 season:

• andrew peeke was the most-used defenseman on the team by more than 200 minutes (1700 in total)
• tim berni, who was a third pairing defenseman in the AHL, played more than 1,000 minutes
• gavin bayreuther and marcus bjork combined for 1400 minutes of ice time
• sean kuraly averaged 15 minutes of ice time
• they broke a franchise record for man games lost
• the coach was unceremoniously fired the day after the season ended
• they had the worst goal differential and points percentage in the conference
• they won just 25 of 82 games

for comparison, the 23-24 season saw:

• a newly-acquired veteran in ivan provorov lead the team with 1800 minutes played
• a healthy zach werenski play 1700 minutes
• a newly-acquired veteran in damon severson play 1400 minutes
• andrew peeke – their most used defenseman from the year before, who had one of the worst statistical seasons for a defenseman in recent history – barely played, and was then traded
• two rookie centers play well for long stretches (fantilli, voronkov) and another young center (sillinger) bounce back
• significantly fewer man games lost to injury
• a repeat as the worst team in the east by goal diff and points percentage
• a three-win increase, from 25 to 28, over the previous season.

I'm obviously not saying that the 23-24 team was stacked by any stretch of the imagination. I'm pointing out that the players vincent had available on any given night were significantly better than the ones larsen had the year before. that's just a matter of fact.

those factors should have led to significantly more year-over-year improvement. having a healthy werenski alone should add more than three wins to their yearly total.

my point is that when you actually consider the context of their marginal improvements, pascal vincent horribly underachieved.

I'm not going to bash the guy. Of course there is room for improvement, but for a guy that got the job the way he did, having the adversity right out of the gate with the Babcock crap, losing an important scorer early on for the majority of the year, having another important vet seemingly mailing it in for a lot of the year, having to deal with a goalie that was a distraction in the locker room, I don't think he did horrible job for a first year head coach. Chances are, like Larson, he will be gone and probably not be able to get rid of the stench from getting the HC job for, hopefully up until now, what has been a mess of an organization the last few years, and it will probably cost him a chance at another shot.

I won't have a problem if they keep him another year if the new FO wants to evaluate what is here player wise before committing to a new coach, and I would like to see what he would do having a full off season to prepare, but honestly, that would be a waste of time to have a guy just finish out his contract.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

To me it makes no sense to keep Vincent if you’re just going to fire/not retain him after the year or fire him during the first few months if we’re bad. Having a lame duck coach does nobody any good. We need long term vision for the young guys.

So if you’re going to keep him, you might as well extend him one more year.

You either stick by him in the short term (2 years) or you let him go. It’s the right thing to do for him and the players.

I suspect he’s going to be let go.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[TaketheCannoli]

I hope Waddell takes a few weeks to get a good read on PV as a coach, then decides whether he feels he can do the job to Waddell's satisfaction or not.

 

[GoChill]

I haven't read the whole thread so apologies if this sounds repetitive but I kind of think they keep PV this year. Giving him another year which I expect to be kind of a throw away building type year anyway gives a true read on him hopefully without so many injuries.

Besides the Jackets aren't Toronto with unlimited money. Last year the Jackets paid 3 head coaches, Larsen, some form of buyout to Babcock and PV. Now they are going to pay JD not to be President of hockey ops. I think Jarmo had a year left (I may be wrong) so they are paying him not to be GM. Hell, they are still paying Wennberg to not play Center. I gotta think ownership is tired of paying people not to do what they were hired to do.

I think PV coaches this year which finishes his contract. If he does great you can re-sign him or if Waddell doesn't like what he sees or has someone else in mind he can hire his guy with no buyouts to be paid.

Bednard had a terrible first year in Colorado and they stuck with him and it turned out really well. Maybe the same can happen with PV. If no improvement after 2 years there is not doubt he will not get another contract.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Besides the Jackets aren't Toronto with unlimited money. Last year the Jackets paid 3 head coaches, Larsen, some form of buyout to Babcock and PV. Now they are going to pay JD not to be President of hockey ops. I think Jarmo had a year left (I may be wrong) so they are paying him not to be GM. Hell, they are still paying Wennberg to not play Center. I gotta think ownership is tired of paying people not to do what they were hired to do.

I personally don't care even a little bit about this since it's not my money, but also: don't own a sports team if you're not willing to cut checks to make the team better.

 

[GoChill]

I personally don't care even a little bit about this since it's not my money, but also: don't own a sports team if you're not willing to cut checks to make the team better.

I bet ownership feels like they did cut checks to make the team better when they they hired all those guys.

 

[Fred Glover]

I hope Waddell takes a few weeks to get a good read on PV as a coach, then decides whether he feels he can do the job to Waddell's satisfaction or not.

He will take some time to get a read on everything
That’s the sign of a guy who knows what he is doing

 

[majormajor]

Coach contracts rarely seem to have any effect on whether they are retained.

 

[CBJx614]

I bet ownership feels like they did cut checks to make the team better when they they hired all those guys.

If they were paying a bunch of Babcock/Torts types or if there were 2-3 years left I would agree but just paying Vincent his money for this season is not a major roadblock.

Not to mention having a new POHOP/GM Kind of resets the counter for ownership. Yes it doesn't change their finances, but it's not like it was Don making those previous changes.

 

[Ice9]

Each guy has his list he'd hire or bring with him should he make a move. If PV isn't on it while he might still have a chance he most likely doesn't.

 

[GoChill]

Coach contracts rarely seem to have any effect on whether they are retained.

I would agree with this but teams rarely have to pay a settlement to a coach before he even has his first practice with the team. Paying 3 coaches in one year is probably something of a rarity too.

I’m sure PV works cheap so perhaps it’s no big deal to pay out 1 year even after all that has happened with coaches and GMs recently.

Btw does anyone know what was left if anything on Jarmos contract? I know JD is up after this coming season.

 

[majormajor]

I would agree with this but teams rarely have to pay a settlement to a coach before he even has his first practice with the team. Paying 3 coaches in one year is probably something of a rarity too.

It might be more common than you think.

I know many times over the years I've heard about a coach on the hot seat and people say "his big extension hasn't even started yet" or "they're still paying the previous guy" and the coach just gets fired anyways.

 

[EspenK]

Unless PV strongly impresses Waddell i think he is gone along with the rest of the staff. If I'm a new GM I want my guy and staff in place to lead the team as it moves forward. I hope Waddell has a great candidate in mind.

 

[DarkandStormy]

I'm meh on PV long term. Hope Vogelhuber doesn't become Bednar 2.0 though.

 

[majormajor]

Jared Bednar was head coach of three different minor league teams. Cleveland was #3, when he was in his mid-40s. He went back and forth between AHL assistant and head coach for a bit there. He got the Avs job when he was about 45.

Trent Vogelhuber has been head coach for two years in his life. He's 35.

I really hope Vogelhuber stays in the org but he's not close to being a head coach option for Columbus yet. Far too young and inexperienced.

I know folks like to imagine these guys as coaching geniuses that either have it or they don't, but in reality they need to learn how to become great coaches and it takes time.

Maybe on our next coach hiring cycle - average coaching tenure is only 3 years - we'll be ready to give serious consideration to Vogelhuber. Perhaps we hire someone this summer (Evason?) and Vogelhuber comes up as an NHL assistant, or perhaps he stays in Cleveland and we bring up his other assistants - Letestu and Haviland both look good from the little we know about their coaching.