Rumor: Pagnotta: Keep an eye on DAL/NSH/VGK/CHI if Marner is shopped

[Mrfenn92]

My guess:

Vegas Theodore +
Dallas Hintz + Harley
Nashville Saros + Luke Schenn
Hawks: Vlasic + Tor 2025 first back

All of it no besides maybe Nashville

 

[stats1]

CHI would have to do a pretty hard sell-job to get Marner to waive to come here. Its possible, but I dont think its likely.

Play with Bedard for the next 10 years

 

[belair]

I don't think there's any way Seattle acquires Marner without one of Larsson, Borgen, or Oleksiak heading the other way.

A guy making $5.5m comin off a 16 point season doesn't at all move the needle on a Marner deal.... and Wright, while has some hype, has a lot of concerns with his long term upside given his somewhat flatlined development.

I would honestly use the cap you gain moving Marner's contract to sign Montour instead of wasting that trade return on the lesser player.

Larsson isnt going anywhere anyways and Oleksiak makes little sense considering the Leafs already have their LD signed. Borgen? Just resign Lyub.

And Burakovsky is the guy that would probably convince Seattle to make that deal. He'd be a free wallet player. And he's a player that Colorado has used to win a Cup. Look at the career stats, he's a playoff guy.

And Wright's year this year suggests he's coming into camp ready to win a spot. Easy middle six Leaf.

I suspect a more realistic take on what a deal would look like is something like would be something like Bjorkstrand, one of Larsson/Borgen/Oleksiak, and either Wright or something like a 2025 first.

I think it's unrealistic you get three marquee assets for Marner, a guy you're going to have to free up around $11m to fit in. Assets like Wright or Larsson would get you the majority of the way there.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

Leafs fans are gonna be very underwhelmed with the return.

Marner holds the cards, and the other team has to pay him big money.

Which is exactly why trading him is a terrible idea.

 

[Brew]

To all the other fans, I'm sorry on his behalf.


Plus in on the wrong side. Top pair D > winger

Lol wouldnt even get 1 straight up let alone both.

Cant see Nashville doing Schenn dirty like that a year after signing him

The only realistic one there

Some pretty rough takes here. Theodore is good, but Marner is easily worth more. We need a partner for Rielly on the top pair, both play a similar game. Leafs Pass.

Harley > Marner? A rookie defender who had a solid season at 22? We value things much, much differently. Hintz + Harley is terrible for Dallas, but don't go thinking Marner couldn't get either one (and then some in return).

Agreed on Schenn.

Chicago's offer is a laugh. Leafs pass.

 

[seanlinden]

I would honestly use the cap you gain moving Marner's cap to sign Montour instead of wasting that trade return on the lesser player.

Larsson isnt going anywhere anyways and Oleksiak makes little sense considering the Leafs already have their LD signed. Borgen? Just resign Lyub.

And Burakovsky is the guy that would probably convince Seattle to make that deal. He'd be a free wallet player. And he's a player that Colorado has used to win a Cup. Look at the career stats, he's a playoff guy.

And Wright's year this year suggests he's coming into camp ready to win a spot. Easy middle six Leaf.

I think it's unrealistic you get three marquee assets for Marner, a guy you're going to have to free up around $11m to fit in. Assets like Wright or Larsson would get you the majority of the way there.

Montour is a) Not really what the Leafs need, and b) likely to get massively overpaid based on a major outlying year last year.

Larsson comes in at just $4m, and while it is unfortunately only for 1 year, him being 32 probably makes it easier to keep his cap hit down with a longer term, frontloaded, bonus laden deal.

As for Oleksiak, I would agree with you on that, I think Larsson and Borgen are the more logical targets.

With respect to Burakovsky, his numbers have completely plummeted since leaving Colorado, and he's often injured. I'm sure Seattle would like to ship him in a Marner deal, just as I'm sure the Leafs wouldn't be interested in comitting valuable cap resources to him.

As for Wright, yes, he does appear to be ready to battle for a spot in the lineup next year... but the lack of upward trajectory is massively concerning. When looking at a player who's 18-19-20, the most important thing is that they're growing every year. Wright was a standout player in his draft class and was probably the best on-ice 17-18 year old that season. He's been somewhat stagnant in these crucial development years.

The Leafs also have Minten, who would likely be competing for the exact same spot in the lineup / ice time, and Cowan; who's stock has obviously been massively on the rise over the last year.

I'd question the use of the word "marquee" here, to be fair.

- Wright is a guy who's stock has been on somewhat of a freefall since being the draft.
- Larsson's a really good defenceman on a really good contract, but he's only got 1 year left and is 31 years old.
- Bjorkstrand is a 55-60 point player. On a good team, he's should be a 2nd line winger.

Maybe you've got a higher opinion of Wright than I do. Personally, I'd have no problem ditching Wright, and to be honest, I'd almost certianly consider 8th overall better than him. Seattle's 2025 1st, maybe Wright's better than that, but not much IMO. Maybe it's not Larsson but Borgen as the Leafs take the downgrade to try and stay younger / cheaper.

edit: Before chiming in that "Marner has only 1 year left, why doesn't that impact his value when it does for Larsson?"...

It's because Marner is the marquee piece in the deal and has full say as to where he's going. If he's going to Seattle, it's likely because he's interested in resigning there, and may have an extension be part of the negotiation. It's REALLY hard to have two players on opposing sides of a deal negotiate extensions to make the deal work. Larsson also only has a 10-team NTC, so Toronto may not be somewhere he wants to stay.

 

[Super Cake]

Marner is not going to bring back what Leafs fans would want. Having a nmc plus being being a ufa next year diminishes his value.

My guess it is a 1st + another draft pick + prospect.

 

[BKarchitect]

Some pretty rough takes here. Theodore is good, but Marner is easily worth more. We need a partner for Rielly on the top pair, both play a similar game. Leafs Pass.

Harley > Marner? A rookie defender who had a solid season at 22? We value things much, much differently. Hintz + Harley is terrible for Dallas, but don't go thinking Marner couldn't get either one (and then some in return).

Agreed on Schenn.

Chicago's offer is a laugh. Leafs pass.

Rest assured Dallas will not trade you their second most important blueliner who has shown exponential growth at age 22 and solidified himself as a top pairing stud with room to grow and who is now soaking in 25+ minutes a night in the playoffs, for Mitch Marner.

 

[De Montreal]

My guess:

Vegas Theodore +
Dallas Hintz + Harley
Nashville Saros + Luke Schenn
Hawks: Vlasic + Tor 2025 first back

if im Toronto I’m thrilled to get either one of Harley or Hintz, both is a pipe dream

Marner has a NTC which diminish his value. I think Toronto can fetch a 1st + solid roster player. Three others offers seems in the good ball park.

 

[JKG33]

Some pretty rough takes here. Theodore is good, but Marner is easily worth more. We need a partner for Rielly on the top pair, both play a similar game. Leafs Pass.

Harley > Marner? A rookie defender who had a solid season at 22? We value things much, much differently. Hintz + Harley is terrible for Dallas, but don't go thinking Marner couldn't get either one (and then some in return).

Agreed on Schenn.

Chicago's offer is a laugh. Leafs pass.

Dallas doesn't trade defence for an overpaid winger who doesn't play playoff hockey. Ditto for Vegas.

 

[Brew]

Dallas doesn't trade defence for an overpaid winger who doesn't play playoff hockey. Ditto for Vegas.

Toronto doesn't go for Harley 1-for-1 with Marner and if you think they do you're stupid. Vegas does whatever they want lol.

 

[HawksDub89]

Which is exactly why trading him is a terrible idea.

I don’t disagree.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

CHI would have to do a pretty hard sell-job to get Marner to waive to come here. Its possible, but I dont think its likely.

Big market loaded with young elite talent. I don’t think it’ll be hard.

 

[Leaf Fans]

But he will no longer be treated like a god...

Why?

 

[HawksDub89]

The Hintz + Harley proposal is just wild lol.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

The Hawks are not trading their big young top pairing shut down dman for a winger, especially when they aren’t anywhere near playoff ready.

 

[seanlinden]

Said this a while ago when it seemed like the Stars were probably goign to "run out of skill" against either Vegas or Colorado; but still think Dallas makes a ton of sense for Marner from a fit standpoint.

Get him with some 3rd party retention this year to make the cap work, and inject some offence to a team that has a 39 year old Joe Pavelski, 33 year old Matt Duchene, 34 year old Jamie Benn, and 32 year old Tyler Seguin. From a cap standpoint, Benn likely in for a paycut after this year to give Marner a raise.

As for the return, obviously potentially more complicated given Dallas' run... and of course guys like Harley are seemingly getting massively pumped up with the breakout year he's had.

 

[PajamaBoy]

Please Vegas !

 

[PAZ]

Some pretty rough takes here. Theodore is good, but Marner is easily worth more. We need a partner for Rielly on the top pair, both play a similar game. Leafs Pass.

Harley > Marner? A rookie defender who had a solid season at 22? We value things much, much differently. Hintz + Harley is terrible for Dallas, but don't go thinking Marner couldn't get either one (and then some in return).

Agreed on Schenn.

Chicago's offer is a laugh. Leafs pass.

Good luck with those expectations.

Marner will have 3-5 teams he'll waive his NMC. I'd bet 1-2 teams would have minimal interest in Marner due to cap space.

So that would leave 1-3 teams vying for Marner. They know there's a good chance Toronto wants to move on from Marner and that there aren't many teams they need to outbid. Vlasic + 1st is a reasonable offer under those conditions.

 

[Legion34]

All of it no besides maybe Nashville

The Dallas one is a ridiculous over pay.

The rest are ok/light to Toronto unless we are talking Chicago’s 2nd overall.

Vegas would need to add to Theo.
The Nash one would be disappointing.

 

[Mrfenn92]

The Dallas one is a ridiculous over pay.

The rest are ok/light to Toronto unless we are talking Chicago’s 2nd overall.

Vegas would need to add to Theo.
The Nash one would be disappointing.

Hawks aren’t trading their young dman and a top 5 pick next year for mitch.

 

[Super Cake]

I honestly would rather the Knights just re-sign Marchessault than waste more assets in acquiring Marner.

Cause if the Knights are getting Marner, than that means Marchy is definitely gone.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I sincerely doubt any of these three teams are in on Marner.

Maybe LA to move on from Fiala? Maybe Utah if they want to make a splash? I think it would break the internet if Laine was traded for Marner but would be so hilarious. Or Chicago for Seth Jones would make me lol.

 

[hangman005]

I honestly would rather the Knights just re-sign Marchessault than waste more assets in acquiring Marner.

Cause if the Knights are getting Marner, than that means Marchy is definitely gone.

Stone for Marner +++ all I've heard is how lucky we are to have someone always injured at the same time each year and always ready for game 1 of the playoffs.... time for another team to pay for it.

 

[JKG33]

Toronto doesn't go for Harley 1-for-1 with Marner and if you think they do you're stupid. Vegas does whatever they want lol.

I'd take it and run for the Leafs