Owen Tippett -- Volume Shooter

[VladDrag]

There was a post from @Ghosts Beer in the Owen Tippett Contract thread that made me do some digging. The ensuing post is probably too long to put in that specific thread, so I created a new one.

Introduction

I decided to look into Tippett’s shooting vs the league. I’ve often said that Tippett is a volume shooter, and that has been based off lots of data I’ve looked through at various sites. However, I’ve never actually looked at Tippett’s numbers in comparison to other great goals scorers. So this morning I decided to do that. After @Magua noted that Tippett is second in the league in total shots per 60 minutes, so I have decided to see how he compares to those players. I looked at the top 7 players in total shots per 60 (7 is arbitrary, I just felt like stopping after a while). I also decided to include a few other prominent goal scorers as well including Mackinnon, Panarin, Kucherov, Boeser, Reinhart. Finally, I didn’t think it was fair to compare some of the best goal scorers to Tippett, because no one says he’s a 50-goal scorer. Most say somewhere between 35-40. So, I added a few additional players that currently pacing around that mark as well including: McDavid, Hintz, Kaprizov, TK, Marner, and Keller. All in all there are 19 skaters for comparison.

Data

Table Notes

• The highlighted green cells mean they are the 5 highest values in that column, and the red highlight are the 5 lowest values in that column.
• Shot Danger – how dangerous a shot is person shot is on average. I’ve calculated this by taking the total expected goals from all individual shots a player has taken, divided by the total amount of unblocked shot attempts that player has taken, and multiplied by 100. It’s multiplied by 100 just so it’s easier to read.
• 5v5 iCF/60 – the 5v5 individual shot attempts per 60 minutes each individual takes. More means they shoot the puck more.
• Non-Front Shots= I used the NHL Edge data to review the shot locations of each one of these players. The unfortunate thing about the NHL Edge shot data is it’s not able to be filtered by on-ice strength. It’s just important to keep that in your mind when reviewing this dataset.
  • Non-Front shots were shots that were not taken from the crease, slot, left-high slot, high slot, and right-high slot…Owen Tippett’s map is below for example. The highlighted values are summed.
    
• % Non-Front Shots – percentage of total shots not taken from in front of the net.

Results

The first thing I notice is how much Owen Tippett actually shoots the puck. I always knew it was high, but I didn’t realize he leads the league a 5v5 total attempted shots/60, unblocked shots/60 and shots on net/60 (again all at 5v5). He’s second in the league in all situations shots/60, behind Pastrnak. However, of this group of skaters, he’s first in percentage of shots not taken from in-front of the net. It’s not completely shocking. Further, of this group of skaters, his shot danger is last as well. Basically, this means that on average, Tippett is taking less shots dangerous shots than the rest of this group of skaters. Most xGF models prioritize shot location, so it makes sense that because he takes more shots from non-netfront areas, his shot danger is lower. Going hand in hand with lower shot danger is lower shooting % within this group of skaters. It should be noted that, the best goal scorers often have higher shooting percentage, and that's because most of their shots come from the front of the net. It has very little to do with shooting ability. Look at all the guys who have the lowest percentage of non-net front shots (Matthews, Boeser, Reinhart, Marner, Hintz). They all have the highest shooting percentages -- This isn't a fluke. It's because they prioritize the middle of the ice.

Conclusions
This specific dataset shows Owen Tippett as a volume shooter when compared to the best goal scorers in the world. And for clarity, I’m defining ‘volume shooter’ as a player who shoots the puck from many locations a lot. With that being said, I believe Tippett has the skill and ability to get more shots into high dangerous scoring areas. It's worth nothing that Briere did this with TK two seasons ago. He sat TK down with the analytical department and showed him that needed to take more shots from in front of the net. My bet is they’ll do this with Tippett as well - if they haven't already. There's been some improvement from last season to this season in this area.

Playing the way he’s playing right now, Tippett is already a player who can be counted on to score 25-28 goals per year, and maybe flirt with 30-33 if he gets lucky. However, if he wants to be the 35-40 annual goal scorer, he needs to get better at prioritizing the center of the ice. He could even stand to take less shots, as long as he increases the amount of shots from in-front of the net. I know he has the skill to do so, but I don’t know if he processes well enough. He’s always been better off the rush where he can use his elite athleticism, than on the cycle, which requires him to process a bit more. There good thing is that there is room for growth in his production, it’s just a matter of can he put those pieces together. There is a pathway to the next level of production for Tippett; I’m just yet not sure if I’m willing to bet on it.

Click to read more...

 

[Striiker]

Second highest shot rate
+
Second worst aim
=
Volume shooting shitter: CONFIRMED

Well done, VD.

 

[TheKingPin]

Thanks for this. I does seem like they are betting on him putting up higher goals in the future. But as others have said I don’t think it’s too far off FA offers he may have received.

I think it’s a good contract since there is room to grow and he could be a 40 goal scorer.

 

[deadhead]

Watching Tippett, I get the feeling he tries too hard to fire it past a goalie, instead of sacrificing a little velocity for a quicker release and accuracy and more patience. I suspect this is a common problem for young players, it takes time for the game to slow down and understand that today's goalies can stop almost any shot they see, you need to learn how to use defenders as screens and disguise your release.

Think it's similar to MLB, hitters can now hit 95-100 MPH FBs that lack movement and are poorly located, due to self-selection (slow bat speed is selected out), in the same way, NHL goalies, especially with better pads can stop high velocity shots that aren't perfectly placed, so winding up and signaling your shot just gives a goalie a chance to position himself properly.

 

[Magua]

This was so thorough a post that my only comment can be:

Owen Tippett: Volume Shooter sounds like book 5 in a Jack Reacher-type series.

 

[prototypical4thliner]

We hear a lot about the brilliance of Danny Briere and his analytics team demonstrating a better way for TK. My question now is two fold:

One, why wait so long to coach Tippett in that manner?

Two, if any thinks they’ve already had that conversation why hasn’t Tippett adopted the best practices?

It seems like a very simple change unless their coveted sniper is being coached to shoot for rebounds…

 

[deadhead]

We hear a lot about the brilliance of Danny Briere and his analytics team demonstrating a better way for TK. My question now is two fold:

One, why wait so long to coach Tippett in that manner?

Two, if any thinks they’ve already had that conversation why hasn’t Tippett adopted the best practices?

It seems like a very simple change unless their coveted sniper is being coached to shoot for rebounds…

Changing habits isn't an overnight thing in many cases, a player is coached, he goes out there, reverts to old habits, oh sh*t, realizes he screwed up, tries to correct and so on . . .

It's common for young players to struggle to finish at the NHL level, they don't have a sense of how much time they have in different situations, they haven't perfected their mechanics, they tend to panic at times, and they get excited by blasting the puck. Over time they realize that scoring goals is the key, not impressing fans with velocity, knowing what you're trying to do, fool the goalie by not telegraphing your shot, shoot it off his pads for a rebound, sometimes just getting it on net to force a faceoff.

I think Tippett has another level he can reach as he learns to pick his spots, maybe skate a few more strides closer to the net before shooting, improving his shot mechanics so he doesn't telegraph his shot (more compact shot), better accuracy. But look at TK, when he's in a slump he rushes things and shoots wildly, but when he's on a scoring streak he's like Deadeye Dick. And he's an experienced veteran. I think shooters are a bit like ML hitters, they go into funks and have hot streaks.

 

[VladDrag]

This post got completely messed up. Had to edit multiple times!

We hear a lot about the brilliance of Danny Briere and his analytics team demonstrating a better way for TK. My question now is two fold:

One, why wait so long to coach Tippett in that manner?

Two, if any thinks they’ve already had that conversation why hasn’t Tippett adopted the best practices?

It seems like a very simple change unless their coveted sniper is being coached to shoot for rebounds…

I don’t know the specifics as to why they decided to “develop” Tip they way they did, but in this instance, the Flyers employed 1 on the ‘smart team’ list (it’s nice to use this list positively for once lol). They basically just said to Tippett, use your strengths (speed/power/shot) to become the most effective player you can be. And he did that, he’s turned into a positive player.

The next step is 3. Tell him to try to hone in his shot location to more dangerous areas. Maybe they are telling him that, I don’t know, but to me, it’s pretty clear that’s the final ‘step’ in development for him.

 

[Magua]

We hear a lot about the brilliance of Danny Briere and his analytics team demonstrating a better way for TK. My question now is two fold:

One, why wait so long to coach Tippett in that manner?

Two, if any thinks they’ve already had that conversation why hasn’t Tippett adopted the best practices?

It's processing speed. Getting into the slot to create your shot requires loads of skill and, oftentimes, passing sequencing. These are not Tippett's strengths. That's the irony, I think: what's holding Tippett back from 35-40 goals is his own passing.

Konecny has been producing Tippett-type scoring since he was 20. He's a vastly better passer, smarter offensively, and actually meshes with linemates. I also think, beyond the shooting areas, Konecny has a better release and touch. Does Tippett have chemistry with anyone besides Frost, who mostly just puts Tippett into position to do what he already does?

Also, Konecny had 2 miserable finishing years from 2020-2022. I think to some degree, the idea Briere unlocked his scoring is a narrative (although 20-21 the process did seem off). He's upped his 5v5 shot attempt rate/60 from ~14 to ~18, although that probably undersells him being the primary creator on the team now. But nothing else is out of whack; it just feels like progression. Tippett taking 25 shot attempts/60 at 5v5, without actually improving his high danger looks, is nuts.

 

[deadhead]

TK has started since he was 19, he took a step up at 22 and then at 26.

Tippett has only started for a year and a half, it's not unreasonable to think there is at least some incremental improvement left - it's not like he needs to become a much better shooter to be a top goal scorer, he's already scoring at close to a 1st line level.

He already scores well enough that there is probably more value in improving his defense to "mediocre" than improving his shot selection, though I hope they work on both aspects of his game.

 

[Starat327]

There was a post from @Ghosts Beer in the Owen Tippett Contract thread that made me do some digging. The ensuing post is probably too long to put in that specific thread, so I created a new one.

Introduction

I decided to look into Tippett’s shooting vs the league. I’ve often said that Tippett is a volume shooter, and that has been based off lots of data I’ve looked through at various sites. However, I’ve never actually looked at Tippett’s numbers in comparison to other great goals scorers. So this morning I decided to do that. After @Magua noted that Tippett is second in the league in total shots per 60 minutes, so I have decided to see how he compares to those players. I looked at the top 7 players in total shots per 60 (7 is arbitrary, I just felt like stopping after a while). I also decided to include a few other prominent goal scorers as well including Mackinnon, Panarin, Kucherov, Boeser, Reinhart. Finally, I didn’t think it was fair to compare some of the best goal scorers to Tippett, because no one says he’s a 50-goal scorer. Most say somewhere between 35-40. So, I added a few additional players that currently pacing around that mark as well including: McDavid, Hintz, Kaprizov, TK, Marner, and Keller. All in all there are 19 skaters for comparison.

Data
View attachment 812476
Table Notes

• The highlighted green cells mean they are the 5 highest values in that column, and the red highlight are the 5 lowest values in that column.
• Shot Danger – how dangerous a shot is person shot is on average. I’ve calculated this by taking the total expected goals from all individual shots a player has taken, divided by the total amount of unblocked shot attempts that player has taken, and multiplied by 100. It’s multiplied by 100 just so it’s easier to read.
• 5v5 iCF/60 – the 5v5 individual shot attempts per 60 minutes each individual takes. More means they shoot the puck more.
• Non-Front Shots= I used the NHL Edge data to review the shot locations of each one of these players. The unfortunate thing about the NHL Edge shot data is it’s not able to be filtered by on-ice strength. It’s just important to keep that in your mind when reviewing this dataset.
  • Non-Front shots were shots that were not taken from the crease, slot, left-high slot, high slot, and right-high slot…Owen Tippett’s map is below for example. The highlighted values are summed.View attachment 812477
• % Non-Front Shots – percentage of total shots not taken from in front of the net.

Results

The first thing I notice is how much Owen Tippett actually shoots the puck. I always knew it was high, but I didn’t realize he leads the league a 5v5 total attempted shots/60, unblocked shots/60 and shots on net/60 (again all at 5v5). He’s second in the league in all situations shots/60, behind Pastrnak. However, of this group of skaters, he’s first in percentage of shots not taken from in-front of the net. It’s not completely shocking. Further, of this group of skaters, his shot danger is last as well. Basically, this means that on average, Tippett is taking less shots dangerous shots than the rest of this group of skaters. Most xGF models prioritize shot location, so it makes sense that because he takes more shots from non-netfront areas, his shot danger is lower. Going hand in hand with lower shot danger is lower shooting % within this group of skaters. It should be noted that, the best goal scorers often have higher shooting percentage, and that's because most of their shots come from the front of the net. It has very little to do with shooting ability. Look at all the guys who have the lowest percentage of non-net front shots (Matthews, Boeser, Reinhart, Marner, Hintz). They all have the highest shooting percentages -- This isn't a fluke. It's because they prioritize the middle of the ice.

Conclusions
This specific dataset shows Owen Tippett as a volume shooter when compared to the best goal scorers in the world. And for clarity, I’m defining ‘volume shooter’ as a player who shoots the puck from many locations a lot. With that being said, I believe Tippett has the skill and ability to get more shots into high dangerous scoring areas. It's worth nothing that Briere did this with TK two seasons ago. He sat TK down with the analytical department and showed him that needed to take more shots from in front of the net. My bet is they’ll do this with Tippett as well - if they haven't already. There's been some improvement from last season to this season in this area.

Playing the way he’s playing right now, Tippett is already a player who can be counted on to score 25-28 goals per year, and maybe flirt with 30-33 if he gets lucky. However, if he wants to be the 35-40 annual goal scorer, he needs to get better at prioritizing the center of the ice. He could even stand to take less shots, as long as he increases the amount of shots from in-front of the net. I know he has the skill to do so, but I don’t know if he processes well enough. He’s always been better off the rush where he can use his elite athleticism, than on the cycle, which requires him to process a bit more. There good thing is that there is room for growth in his production, it’s just a matter of can he put those pieces together. There is a pathway to the next level of production for Tippett; I’m just yet not sure if I’m willing to bet on it.

Hey bud.. long winded posts with an accurate portrayal and usage of statistics aren't allowed around here.

 

[VladDrag]

Hey bud.. long winded posts with an accurate portrayal and usage of statistics aren't allowed around here.

This is my version of shitposting

 

[Beef Invictus]

They've let Tippett be himself. It's a rare development win.

They also let him make the horizontal passes in transition that make Tortorella hiss without punishing him. He's really good at the cross ice quick pass and he doesn't get picked off doing it.