Ovechkin milestone thread - 850 and Beyond!

[BraveCanadian]

The thing is that the scoring rates are a good starting point of difference, one can micro analyze till the cows come home but most of the stuff you are talking about doesn't make a huge difference as it's league wide and in that sense "baked into the cake"

That is where you are wrong, it does make a big difference and it is literally not backed in.. but hey you do you.

 

[wetcoast]

That is where you are wrong, it does make a big difference and it is literally not backed in.. but hey you do you.

The overall scoring rate per season is the biggest difference the reasons why for each season matter sure but they also affect everyone the same within the same season.

I tried to scroll back to the original post but after 8 pages I gave up but the fact is that Ovi is already ahead of Gretzky in adjusted goals and the difference and amount more than makes up for what you are talking about.

 

[wetcoast]

Also posts like this aren't helping the argument and actually hurting your position here as everyone in the league in any given year is part of that metric.

If scoring is up it is distributed if it is down likewise.

Late to the party on this one but average goals per game does a horrible job accounting for differences in PP opportunities when comparing players and also for the distribution of offense through the lineup.

Yes, and drastically in (and between) some years people are often comparing.

Adjusting by average scoring only needs to die and the sooner the better.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

As an aside, are you on the spectrum? That'd explain a lot about your disposition.

that's a rude & inappropriate thing to say IMO

 

[Hippasus]

Also posts like this aren't helping the argument and actually hurting your position here as everyone in the league in any given year is part of that metric.

If scoring is up it is distributed if it is down likewise.

The overall scoring rate per season is the biggest difference the reasons why for each season matter sure but they also affect everyone the same within the same season.

I tried to scroll back to the original post but after 8 pages I gave up but the fact is that Ovi is already ahead of Gretzky in adjusted goals and the difference and amount more than makes up for what you are talking about.

A large part of the increase in scoring has to do with increased roster sizes and the surge of depth scoring that have occurred at certain points in history. Adjusting in toto season-by-season is flawed in that it punishes top-line players due to historical circumstances like the above. Comparison against peers is a feasible way around this, like dividing against some notion like "average first-liner", but it's a lot of work.

 

[WarriorofTime]

needs to die and the sooner the better.

If people are ready to introduce an actual analytics based replacement that takes into account that teams don’t have the same players getting 1st line/PP1 ice time all season and the frequency of use varies by team while controlling for a lot factors, then ok. But the history of hockey back of the napkin “bro science” is rather weak.

The thing is that the scoring rates are a good starting point of difference, one can micro analyze till the cows come home but most of the stuff you are talking about doesn't make a huge difference as it's league wide and in that sense "baked into the cake"

Bingo. Some people just want to “death by details” away the very obvious fact - it was significantly earlier to put up big stats during some eras compared to others and we know with high certainty which eras that applies to.

 

[8To34]

The 80s had 2 things in particular that made scoring massively easier that flat out evolved out of the NHL and other top leagues in the world-

1/3 the league (most bottom 6ers/bottom defensemen) were beer league tier players. There was no comparable NHL pipeline as to now. None of them would be NHLers now based on skating alone. You can argue that Gretzky and Lemieux and the rest would still hold up right now in their primes and of course they would, but you wouldn't be able to get away with putting Ryan Reaves with Gretzky in 2024 and rolling that line against a contender any more than you could with McDavid.

Goaltending was not standardized, refined and optimized the way it is now. Theres a reason literally no goalies stands up straight and shrugs at clappers from the blue line as they get past him anymore. Equipment is completely different now as well and conductive to much better goaltending. Positioning alone lets goalies make saves that back in the day they'd have to rely on reflexes and concentration for.

IMO that stuff had a much higher effect on inflating top end talent scoring than stuff like wooden sticks would have on deflating it.

 

[Beukeboom]

The 80s had 2 things in particular that made scoring massively easier that flat out evolved out of the NHL and other top leagues in the world-

1/3 the league (most bottom 6ers/bottom defensemen) were beer league tier players. There was no comparable NHL pipeline as to now. None of them would be NHLers now based on skating alone. You can argue that Gretzky and Lemieux and the rest would still hold up right now in their primes and of course they would, but you wouldn't be able to get away with putting Ryan Reaves with Gretzky in 2024 and rolling that line against a contender any more than you could with McDavid.

Goaltending was not standardized, refined and optimized the way it is now. Theres a reason literally no goalies stands up straight and shrugs at clappers from the blue line as they get past him anymore. Equipment is completely different now as well and conductive to much better goaltending. Positioning alone lets goalies make saves that back in the day they'd have to rely on reflexes and concentration for.

IMO that stuff had a much higher effect on inflating top end talent scoring than stuff like wooden sticks would have on deflating it.

Well one could argue few teams had "let us utilize our bottom defensemen vs Gretzky" as a tactic, so once again it's more complicated than that.

Anyway, this thread tends to derail (and I've for sure been part of it), but what's up with Ovie's scoring now? 1 goal in his last 6 games. Back in a slump, or just some temporary bad luck?

 

[TJHKY]

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Yes there are alot of factors including how the Oilers played to win 8-6 every game but none of this has to do with the fact that goal scoring was up dramatically in the time period, compared to the late 90s and mid 2010 decade and is up now.



Sure but were is the problem exactly?

In those seasons listed wouldn't it apply to all top 6 players and PP versus regular ones and how much is it different from any baseline scoring season in terms of distribution?

Great post.

BraveCanadian's issue is that he frames everything in relation to Gretzky.

 

[wetcoast]

Great post.

BraveCanadian's issue is that he frames everything in relation to Gretzky.

Exactly.

 

[saffronleaf]

What Ovechkin has already achieved in goal scoring is infinitely more impressive than what Gretzky achieved in goal scoring.

 

[8To34]

Well one could argue few teams had "let us utilize our bottom defensemen vs Gretzky" as a tactic, so once again it's more complicated than that.

Anyway, this thread tends to derail (and I've for sure been part of it), but what's up with Ovie's scoring now? 1 goal in his last 6 games. Back in a slump, or just some temporary bad luck?

Why did the NHL teams stop employing guys who skate slightly better than I do to round out rosters since they'd all get sheltered away from top players anyway?

Here's a random barrage of Gretzky goals (50 in 39 game). Even if you can't see how much worse that defense is than anything you'll see in the NHL in the present day in outside of Chicago surely you can see that goaltending is almost a different sport to now.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[Zuluss]

#840

 

[M2Beezy]

Ooooooovvveeeecccchhhhkkkkiiiiinnnnn

 

[WarriorofTime]

Passed Al MacInnis, Mike Modano and Brendan Shanahan for points in age 38 season. Now tied with Patrick Marleau and Jarome Iginla for 25th-27th highest point producing age 38 season.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

54 goals away from the record.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

Another point, goal and an assist tonight

 

[Zuluss]

Ovechkin has passed Paul Coffey in career points and is now #15 all-time

 

[TJHKY]

 

[BallardEra]

10 goals in his last 15 games after scoring 8 goals in his first 43 games.

18 points over those last 15 games as well.

 

[Mulletman]

Ovechkin might have some tough times ahead. 10 out of his last 21 games are against top 10 defensive teams, including 2 games against the Jets, who has let in the least goals of all teams this year. But next game is against Chicago, so with a little luck Ovechkin will have a 3 point night and reach 50 points for the season. And hopefully a thunderous hit on Bedard too so the kid learns some respect!

 

[Nemesis Prime]

three certainties in life

death
taxes
hf boards underestimating ovechkin

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

12 goals in his last 21 games brings him to 30. I think it's doable.