Ovechkin milestone thread - 850 and Beyond!

[Shrimper]

More likely he does than doesn't do it now

 

[The Panther]

Hockey Ref. says Ovi has 17 goals in 56 games. I know he's been on a bit of a heater lately, but I wouldn't expect him to keep up the pace post-All Star break, nor would I expect him to struggle as much as he did before that.

Anyway, 17 goals in 56 games projects to 25 goals per 82 games. If he is in decline, and if he continues to decline each year (this is, all things being equal, the most likely scenario), then let's imagine it like this:
- 25 this year (gives him 847)
- 22 next year (gives him 869)
- 20 the next year (gives him 889)
- whatever the next year to break the career goals record

He'd be 41 at that point.

So, there's no doubt he can do it if he wants to stick around that long. The key is to ride these 'heaters' (like now) whenever one comes up, and to avoid injury... which he's been unbelievably good at his entire career. Does get harder in late 30s, though.

 

[Golden_Jet]

More likely he does than doesn't do it now

55 goals to tie record.

 

[BallardEra]

Hockey Ref. says Ovi has 17 goals in 56 games. I know he's been on a bit of a heater lately, but I wouldn't expect him to keep up the pace post-All Star break, nor would I expect him to struggle as much as he did before that.

Anyway, 17 goals in 56 games projects to 25 goals per 82 games. If he is in decline, and if he continues to decline each year (this is, all things being equal, the most likely scenario), then let's imagine it like this:
- 25 this year (gives him 847)
- 22 next year (gives him 869)
- 20 the next year (gives him 889)
- whatever the next year to break the career goals record

He'd be 41 at that point.

So, there's no doubt he can do it if he wants to stick around that long. The key is to ride these 'heaters' (like now) whenever one comes up, and to avoid injury... which he's been unbelievably good at his entire career. Does get harder in late 30s, though.

I always enjoy reading your posts.

Would like to add that perhaps the slow start for Ovechkin this season will make rethink his off-season training regimen. I have a feeling he will come into next season fitter and more slim, wanting to get off to a better start.

 

[BallardEra]

8 goals in his first 43 games.

9 goals in his last 13 games.

 

[8To34]

(Lost more than a few brain cells reading the last few pages of this thread... Yikes.)

For those of you who follow the Caps (I don't), what's the difference in Ovechkin's play since the All Star break that he's suddenly producing again (for now, anyway)?

Is he (a) not noticeably doing anything different, except scoring more, which perhaps suggests his body needed a rest?; or (b) is he doing something noticeably different?

Why Alex Ovechkin is scoring all of a sudden

A five-game goal streak for Alex Ovechkin is exactly what the Washington Capitals (and Capitals fans) have been wishing for. Ovechkin helped…

russianmachineneverbreaks.com

This article does a pretty good breakdown. He lost a step but on top of that his support absolutely cratered. No Backstrom (which is an improvement over having Backstrom the way he was this season). No Kuznetsov (which is a massive improvement over the way he was his season). Oshie falling off a cliff. The GM punting the offseason and going for terrible moves like signing glue factory candidate Pacioretty who was going to miss half a season before even getting a game.

If the Caps had a Kyle Dubas come in and provide the type of offseason support the Pens got (Karlsson, Graves, Smith vs Pacioretty, Edmundson, no Backstorm/Kuznetsov/17 million useless cap solution) Ovechkin probably gets ~35 goals on the year even having lost a step. Him leading the Caps to be above the Pens atm with the almost sharks tier roster they have backing him is pretty nuts.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Frequency / effectiveness of PPs are also already baked into those league-wide scoring stats. If the assertion is that it’s easier to get PP goals now then that would just mean it was that much easier to get ES goals back then to make up the difference. Same with training, nutrition, stick technology, goalie pads, goaltending styles, etc.

Late to the party on this one but average goals per game does a horrible job accounting for differences in PP opportunities when comparing players and also for the distribution of offense through the lineup.

 

[hi]

I know he's been on a bit of a heater lately, but I wouldn't expect him to keep up the pace post-All Star break

You never fail to make me laugh

 

[wetcoast]

Late to the party on this one but average goals per game does a horrible job accounting for differences in PP opportunities when comparing players and also for the distribution of offense through the lineup.

That's because league wide scoring is exactly what it is league wide scoring not a breakdown as to why.

but like the poster said,

Frequency / effectiveness of PPs are also already baked into those league-wide scoring stats

PP opportunities and the distribution of scoring through the lineup are already baked into the cake of every years average scoring rate.

PP opportunities is just one of the many reasons why scoring rates could be different form one year in one era compared to another era.

If one wants to talk about distribution of offense through the lineup it would be a greater difference in early NHL days and before Bobby Orr revolutionized the role of Dmen and defenders took a prominent role in scoring yet I can't recall ever hearing this brought up by you in the HHOF section.

 

[Golden_Jet]

That's because league wide scoring is exactly what it is league wide scoring not a breakdown as to why.

but like the poster said,



PP opportunities and the distribution of scoring through the lineup are already baked into the cake of every years average scoring rate.

PP opportunities is just one of the many reasons why scoring rates could be different form one year in one era compared to another era.

If one wants to talk about distribution of offense through the lineup it would be a greater difference in early NHL days and before Bobby Orr revolutionized the role of Dmen and defenders took a prominent role in scoring yet I can't recall ever hearing this brought up by you in the HHOF section.

Here is by goals per season,
then tap on “G will sort by years for goals
Same for “PPO” power play opportunities column.

NHL League Averages | Hockey-Reference.com

Check out the latest NHL League Averages including shots, saves, goal averages and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

Haven’t deep dived yet, to look for patterns.

 

[BraveCanadian]

That's because league wide scoring is exactly what it is league wide scoring not a breakdown as to why.

but like the poster said,



PP opportunities and the distribution of scoring through the lineup are already baked into the cake of every years average scoring rate.

PP opportunities is just one of the many reasons why scoring rates could be different form one year in one era compared to another era.

If one wants to talk about distribution of offense through the lineup it would be a greater difference in early NHL days and before Bobby Orr revolutionized the role of Dmen and defenders took a prominent role in scoring yet I can't recall ever hearing this brought up by you in the HHOF section.

Absolutely wrong.

 

[wetcoast]

Absolutely wrong.

Okay I see what you are hung up on but then you missed the whole point each seasons scoring rates is just that it doesn't break things down but then again you aren't seriously interested in the distribution of scoring on teams are you?

Like I said the distribution of scoring was highest in the early years of the NHL is it really different post expansion all that much?

 

[BraveCanadian]

Okay I see what you are hung up on but then you missed the whole point each seasons scoring rates is just that it doesn't break things down but then again you aren't seriously interested in the distribution of scoring on teams are you?

Like I said the distribution of scoring was highest in the early years of the NHL is it really different post expansion all that much?

Yes, and drastically in (and between) some years people are often comparing.

Adjusting by average scoring only needs to die and the sooner the better.

 

[wetcoast]

Yes, and drastically in (and between) some years people are often comparing.

Adjusting by average scoring only needs to die and the sooner the better.

You are beating a dead horse and also don't seem to understand that the value of a goal is different from one season to the next yet you insist on use counting stats over something better while imperfect to get an idea of what each goal or point scorer in a season means historically.

It's the typical adjusted stats aren't perfect so I'm going to use a worse metric instead argument.

 

[BraveCanadian]

You are beating a dead horse and also don't seem to understand that the value of a goal is different from one season to the next yet you insist on use counting stats over something better while imperfect to get an idea of what each goal or point scorer in a season means historically.

It's the typical adjusted stats aren't perfect so I'm going to use a worse metric instead argument.

Wrong again. But carry on making assumptions about both things.

 

[wetcoast]

Wrong again. But carry on making assumptions about both things.

If the distribution of scoring was such an obvious thing you might cite an example?

As to your original point you were upset about a metric that does a specific thing not doing something that it never was intended to do.

A goal scored in 83-84 was much easier than in 14-15 there is no getting around that fact.

 

[Liga]

Top 10 player all time easily

Crosby has won more titles in NT and NHL than Ovetjkin you surely knows but Ovetjkin does more goals as I knows Crosby is close to top 10 about four years left Crosby reach 8th-9th.

 

[DRW895]

Ovechkin was robbed in 3 goals this season - wasn`t enough for somebody. In 2 recent games he was robbed in 2 helpers. Not funny. Those points can make the difference and really weak guy as top-6 centre Strome as leading scorer by the end of the season

 

[BraveCanadian]

If the distribution of scoring was such an obvious thing you might cite an example?

As to your original point you were upset about a metric that does a specific thing not doing something that it never was intended to do.

A goal scored in 83-84 was much easier than in 14-15 there is no getting around that fact.

Within a season you have huge variations at times in PPO. For example when Gretzky last hit 200 points - which is the sort of season people would likely compare to others - he did so with the Edmonton Oilers having the fewest powerplay opportunities in the league at 295. Four teams had over 400 PPO and the league average was 370. Therefore, as an extreme outlier, Gretzky gets pulled towards the average more than he should. There are other factors as well.

Between seasons you also have to account for roster size changes, ice time distribution and PPOs. Adjustments of seasons like 88-89, 92-93, 95-96, and 05-06 are VERY obvious examples where crackdowns of various kinds skew the distribution of offense heavily towards top 6 and PP unit players vs. regular players which skews how good the top players look compared to average scoring to a large degree.

This has all been pointed out 1000 times around here and people still don't get it.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Ovechkin was robbed in 3 goals this season - wasn`t enough for somebody. In 2 recent games he was robbed in 2 helpers. Not funny. Those points can make the difference and really weak guy as top-6 centre Strome as leading scorer by the end of the season

I noticed that too - I was surprised he didn't get an assist on the Paccioretty goal the other day, and also didn't get one yesterday.

 

[The Panther]

You never fail to make me laugh

Okay. I'm not sure why that would be, unless perhaps you misunderstood what I was trying to say.

You quoted this part of my post: "I know he's been on a bit of a heater lately, but I wouldn't expect him to keep up the pace post-All Star break..."

To clarify, what I'm saying is that I would not expect Ovechkin to keep up his current post-All Star pace (9 goals in 13 games or whatever it is) for the next few years.

I mean, that's obvious, isn't it? But perhaps you misunderstood what I was trying to say.

 

[wetcoast]

Within a season you have huge variations at times in PPO. For example when Gretzky last hit 200 points - which is the sort of season people would likely compare to others - he did so with the Edmonton Oilers having the fewest powerplay opportunities in the league at 295. Four teams had over 400 PPO and the league average was 370. Therefore, as an extreme outlier, Gretzky gets pulled towards the average more than he should. There are other factors as well.

Yes there are alot of factors including how the Oilers played to win 8-6 every game but none of this has to do with the fact that goal scoring was up dramatically in the time period, compared to the late 90s and mid 2010 decade and is up now.

Between seasons you also have to account for roster size changes, ice time distribution and PPOs. Adjustments of seasons like 88-89, 92-93, 95-96, and 05-06 are VERY obvious examples where crackdowns of various kinds skew the distribution of offense heavily towards top 6 and PP unit players vs. regular players which skews how good the top players look compared to average scoring to a large degree.

This has all been pointed out 1000 times around here and people still don't get it.

Sure but were is the problem exactly?

In those seasons listed wouldn't it apply to all top 6 players and PP versus regular ones and how much is it different from any baseline scoring season in terms of distribution?

 

[BraveCanadian]

Sure but were is the problem exactly?

In those seasons listed wouldn't it apply to all top 6 players and PP versus regular ones and how much is it different from any baseline scoring season in terms of distribution?

If you don't understand the implications with these things and then adjusting by average scoring to compare with others then I don't think I can explain it to you. The answer to your question is obviously no.. it is not the same and how much it is different depends on the players and seasons being compared.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Within a season you have huge variations at times in PPO. For example when Gretzky last hit 200 points - which is the sort of season people would likely compare to others - he did so with the Edmonton Oilers having the fewest powerplay opportunities in the league at 295. Four teams had over 400 PPO and the league average was 370. Therefore, as an extreme outlier, Gretzky gets pulled towards the average more than he should. There are other factors as well.

Between seasons you also have to account for roster size changes, ice time distribution and PPOs. Adjustments of seasons like 88-89, 92-93, 95-96, and 05-06 are VERY obvious examples where crackdowns of various kinds skew the distribution of offense heavily towards top 6 and PP unit players vs. regular players which skews how good the top players look compared to average scoring to a large degree.

This has all been pointed out 1000 times around here and people still don't get it.

But BraveCanadian, you don't understand - some people do all the work to adjust for all that stuff so all their adjusted stats are perfectly valid, and when you look at those stats it tells you ...

 

[wetcoast]

If you don't understand the implications with these things and then adjusting by average scoring to compare with others then I don't think I can explain it to you. The answer to your question is obviously no.. it is not the same and how much it is different depends on the players and seasons being compared.

The thing is that the scoring rates are a good starting point of difference, one can micro analyze till the cows come home but most of the stuff you are talking about doesn't make a huge difference as it's league wide and in that sense "baked into the cake"