Organizational Prospect Rankings: 2018 Final

[Critical13]

During the summer, we've been running Organizational Prospect Ranking polls to see where HFBoards ranks each team's prospect pool.

Along with HFBoards, I've also included some other media sources often cited around this site, and have added some tables to show analysis on the rankings.

HFBoards Ranking:

1. Buffalo - 66%
2. Vancouver - 41%
3. Carolina - 76%
4. New York Islanders - 37%
5. New York Rangers - 35%
6. Philadelphia - 39%
7. St. Louis - 37%
8. Colorado - 31%
9. Detroit - 33%
10. Vegas - 55%

11. Ottawa - 29%
12. Florida - 35%
13. Los Angeles - 28%
14. Montreal - 27%
15. Dallas - 48%
16. Chicago - 40%
17. Edmonton - 24%
18. Tampa Bay - 26%
19. Arizona - 22%
20. Minnesota - 38%

21. Winnipeg - 35%
22. Toronto - 36%
23. Anaheim - 30%
24. Boston - 36%
25. Calgary - 42%
26. Nashville - 79%
27. New Jersey - 55%
28. Columbus - 43%
29. Pittsburgh - 49%
30. Washington - 68%

31. San Jose - 100%


Ranking based on Average across media sources:

1. Buffalo
2. Vancouver
3. Carolina
4. St. Louis
5. Philadelphia
6. New York (Islanders)
7. New York (Rangers)
8. Detroit
9. Florida
10. Montreal

11. Colorado
12. Ottawa
13. Vegas
14. Los Angeles
15. Tampa Bay
16. Chicago
17. Winnipeg
18. Arizona
19. Minnesota
20. Dallas

21. Toronto
22. Edmonton
23. Boston
24. Anaheim
25. New Jersey
26. Calgary
27. Nashville
28. Columbus
29. San Jose
30. Pittsburgh

31. Washington



Ranking Analysis

*There is rounding happening on the average column

Prospect Pools (unfinished until Top 50 list complete)

Top 5 Risers:

• New York (Rangers) +18
• Montreal +15
• Buffalo +13
• Florida +12
• Chicago +15

Top 5 Fallers:

• Nashville -18
• New Jersey -18
• Arizona -16
• Columbus -13
• Tampa Bay -12

Rank Distribution (worst - best)

Consensus Rankings:

• Buffalo (Top Pool)
• Vancouver (Top 3)
• Carolina (Top 4)
• Ottawa (10-13)
• Florida (8-12)
• Nashville (24-27)
• Columbus (25-28)
• Washington (29-31)

Controversial Rankings:

• New York (Islanders) (4-14)
• Philadelphia (2-12)
• Vegas (8-22)
• Los Angeles (10-24)
• Montreal (6-18)
• Dallas (15-26)
• Edmonton (17-27)
• Arizona (15-25)
• San Jose (17-31)

Extremely Controversial Rankings:

• Colorado (6-21)
• Tampa Bay (7-30)
• Winnipeg (11-28)
• Boston (12-27)

Highest Rank by Source

1. Buffalo - All sources
2. Vancouver - HFboards, The Athletic, LWOS
3. Carolina - HFboards, LWOS
4. New York (Islanders) - HFboards
5. New York (Rangers) - LWOS
6. Philadelphia - Sporting News
7. St. Louis - The Athletic
8. Colorado - Sporting News
9. Detroit - The Athletic
10. Vegas - The Athletic
11. Ottawa - HFboards
12. Florida - Sporting News
13. Los Angeles - The Athletic
14. Montreal - The Athletic
15. Dallas - HFboards
16. Chicago - The Athletic
17. Edmonton - HFboards, Sporting News
18. Tampa Bay - Sporting News
19. Arizona - The Athletic
20. Minnesota - The Athletic
21. Winnipeg - Sporting News
22. Toronto - Sporting News
23. Anaheim - Sporting News
24. Boston - Sporting News
25. Calgary - Sporting News
26. Nashville - LWOS
27. New Jersey - Sporting News
28. Columbus - The Athletic
29. Pittsburgh - The Athletic
30. Washington - Sporting News
31. San Jose - The Athletic

HFboards Comparison to Average

Overrate (HFboards Rank > Average Rank).

• Carolina
• New York (Islanders)
• New York (Rangers)
• Philadelphia
• Colorado
• Vegas
• Ottawa
• Los Angeles
• Dallas (5 ranks above average)
• Chicago
• Edmonton

Underrate (HFboards Rank < Average Rank).

• St. Louis
• Florida
• Montreal
• Tampa Bay
• Minnestoa
• Winnipeg
• Toronto
• Anaheim
• Boston
• New Jersey (4 ranks below average)
• Columbus
• Pittsburgh
• San Jose (4 ranks below average)

Equal (Hfboards rank = average)

• Buffalo
• Vancouver
• Detroit
• Arizona
• Calgary
• Nashville
• Washington

About the Sources

Pronman @ The Athletic's article can be found here:
Pronman: 2018-19 NHL farm system rankings

• Pronman is high on Montreal, St. Louis and San Jose.
• Pronman is low on Philadelphia, Colorado and Tampa Bay.

Kournianos @ Sporting News' article can be found here:
NHL farm system rankings: Best, worst prospect pipelines for 2018-19, from 1 to 31

• Kournianos is high on Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and Boston.
• Kournianos is low on New York (Islanders), Vegas and Los Angeles.

Kerr @ LWOS' article can be found here:
TSP: 2018 NHL Organizational Prospect Rankings (31-21) -

• Kerr is high on Montreal, Tampa Bay and Nashville.
• Kerr is low on Dallas, Edmonton and Toronto.

Click to read more...

 

[AmericanDream]

HF has the Sharks at 31??? WTF???

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Wow looking at Pronmans entire list is really eye opening as to just how terrible that list really was.


Right from the very first day he started it and listed Tampa Bay at 30 it was clear it would be a bad list and it certainly didn't get any better

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Wow looking at Pronmans entire list is really eye opening as to just how terrible that list really was.


Right from the very first day he started it and listed Tampa Bay at 30 it was clear it would be a bad list and it certainly didn't get any better

Pronman is usually an outlier.

I think the big problem with his list starts and ends with the ranking of Colorado.

 

[Bevans]

Wow looking at Pronmans entire list is really eye opening as to just how terrible that list really was.


Right from the very first day he started it and listed Tampa Bay at 30 it was clear it would be a bad list and it certainly didn't get any better

Eye opening how different that list really was.**

I dont love his list either, but the other lists don't demonstrate that his is wrong. They don't show anything other than that his opinion is an outlier.

 

[JohnLennon]

Thanks so much for compiling all this @Critical91. Great work.

I tend to agree with a mix of Pronman (The Athletic) and Kerr (LWOS). My favorite has to be Pronman's, as he explained himself better than anyone in my opinion, and justified all of his opinions very well.

Interesting to see how all four of these sources stack up against each other. Also cool that you noted the extremely controversial teams - Colorado, Tampa, Winnipeg and Boston. Seems like guys like Timmins, Foote, and Niku are debatable on what their NHL potential really is. HFBoards is clearly a lot higher on these three prospects than most of these analysts.

 

[JohnLennon]

Wow looking at Pronmans entire list is really eye opening as to just how terrible that list really was.


Right from the very first day he started it and listed Tampa Bay at 30 it was clear it would be a bad list and it certainly didn't get any better

Highly insist you give it a read if you've got a subscription. It's by far the most well-explained of the three sources provided, and has the most content. I find it hard to disagree with a lot of his rankings after reading how he justifies it.

 

[buffalosabrebills]

Fantastic write up, lists, and graphs. Awesome work man, looking forward to it next year! Hopefully we don't fall too far down the list by losing Dahlin and Mittelstadt.

 

[LordNeverLose]

Sprong isn't Calder eligible and thus shouldn't have been included. That likely would've bumped PIT down to 31.

 

[SI90]

Fantastic write up, lists, and graphs. Awesome work man, looking forward to it next year! Hopefully we don't fall too far down the list by losing Dahlin and Mittelstadt.

It’s inevitable and not a bad thing. Dahlin is the #1 prospect in the world and Mittlstadt is up ther as well.

 

[buffalosabrebills]

It’s inevitable and not a bad thing. Dahlin is the #1 prospect in the world and Mittlstadt is up ther as well.

If we can hit on our three 1st rounders next year we could stay top 10 but you're probably right. I could see a huge drop down to the late teens/early twenties like Arizona after they graduated Keller and Strome.

 

[SI90]

If we can hit on our three 1st rounders next year we could stay top 10 but you're probably right. I could see a huge drop down to the late teens/early twenties like Arizona after they graduated Keller and Strome.

3 good first rounders next year could keep you top3-5. Not bad at all especially with Dahlin and Mittlstadt graduating.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Fantastic write up, lists, and graphs. Awesome work man, looking forward to it next year! Hopefully we don't fall too far down the list by losing Dahlin and Mittelstadt.

Probably won't even be top 10, barring another lottery pick.

That's not a bad thing though. It's to be expected when you graduate a generational prospect and another that's elite level. Just means the main roster got better.

I expect Detroit to tank down the list next year with potentially three to five of their top 6 prospects graduating. But I think Detroit has a better chance of getting a lottery pick too, so who knows.

 

[Critical13]

Buffalo’s future looks downright incredible. Multiple firsts next year, possibly one of them being quite high. Top pool this year unanimously. Already has one superstar #1C.

Will be interesting to see things shake out this season with all the graduations. I expect the New York teams and Montreal to be near the top next year as they will have fewer top end graduations it seems. Vancouver will also probably stick around at the top.

 

[Critical13]

HF has the Sharks at 31??? WTF???

Pronman is much higher on them - 17 I think.

Pronman is usually an outlier.

I think the big problem with his list starts and ends with the ranking of Colorado.

That was my only complaint too. He must not be a fan of Timmins because I think in the past he's liked Makar.

Thanks so much for compiling all this @Critical91. Great work.

I tend to agree with a mix of Pronman (The Athletic) and Kerr (LWOS). My favorite has to be Pronman's, as he explained himself better than anyone in my opinion, and justified all of his opinions very well.

Interesting to see how all four of these sources stack up against each other. Also cool that you noted the extremely controversial teams - Colorado, Tampa, Winnipeg and Boston. Seems like guys like Timmins, Foote, and Niku are debatable on what their NHL potential really is. HFBoards is clearly a lot higher on these three prospects than most of these analysts.

Glad you enjoyed it

Fantastic write up, lists, and graphs. Awesome work man, looking forward to it next year! Hopefully we don't fall too far down the list by losing Dahlin and Mittelstadt.

Thanks, glad you like it!

Sprong isn't Calder eligible and thus shouldn't have been included. That likely would've bumped PIT down to 31.

That's unfortunate, I guess downside of crowd sourcing the pools is that I didn't double check. I am not too concerned though as they are both bottom 3. Appreciate you pointing it out, though.

 

[sharks9]

Buffalo’s future looks downright incredible. Multiple firsts next year, possibly one of them being quite high. Top pool this year unanimously. Already has one superstar #1C.

Will be interesting to see things shake out this season with all the graduations. I expect the New York teams and Montreal to be near the top next year as they will have fewer top end graduations it seems. Vancouver will also probably stick around at the top.

We'll be high for sure, but an extra 1st from trading Pacioretty and maybe some 2nd/3rd rounders from trading guys like Byron and Plekanec at the deadline would give us a seriously deep pool and put us in the top 5

 

[Critical13]

We'll be high for sure, but an extra 1st from trading Pacioretty and maybe some 2nd/3rd rounders from trading guys like Byron and Plekanec at the deadline would give us a seriously deep pool and put us in the top 5

I think Kotk will rise as well, a lot of people are hesitant to put him in that top prospect ranking just yet because he saw movement near the end of the year, but a solid season could propel him up the lists.

 

[Icebreakers]

Buffalo’s future looks downright incredible. Multiple firsts next year, possibly one of them being quite high. Top pool this year unanimously. Already has one superstar #1C.

Will be interesting to see things shake out this season with all the graduations. I expect the New York teams and Montreal to be near the top next year as they will have fewer top end graduations it seems. Vancouver will also probably stick around at the top.

Buffalo future has looked downright incredible for many many years.

Its mindblowing how they finished last with Eichel + Oreilly as their top centers even if Eichel missed 15 games or so.

Edmonton and Florida has had amazing futures as well for many many years.

I couldnt imagine if the Leafs or Oilers got another first overall pick after they had drafted Matthews or Mcdavid.

Even though their prospects are amazing, I dont think any team in the east is scared of them going forward as of right now.

 

[Mick Riddleton]

This is a terrible list as was Pronman's, laughable

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Highly insist you give it a read if you've got a subscription. It's by far the most well-explained of the three sources provided, and has the most content. I find it hard to disagree with a lot of his rankings after reading how he justifies it.

Meh I have a subscription and read them all. I strongly disagree with the way he ranked a number of prospects and think he values pure skill way, way too much in this ranking(He values it a tonne anyway, but I think he went even more overboard with this list).

Like I said, Tampa at #30 is just ridiculous as far as I'm concerned and I'm not even a Tampa fan. They have a lot of quality prospects that project to be solid NHLers. Just because they dont have an elite prospect(And once again I think Pronman is overrating pure skill here to say that Foote or Katchouk cant be high impact, Top 4/Top 6 guys in the future) should not take away from the tremendous depth they have.

Pronman is usually an outlier.

I think the big problem with his list starts and ends with the ranking of Colorado.

Colorado is my favorite team. And while I do think they're ranked lower then they should be, I dont think we're the worst ranked team on the list at all. We should probably be ~6-7 spots higher. I think we have a top half of the league pool but the teams from ~7-15 are all very closely ranked.



But I think there's a number of other teams that are either ranked waaaay to low(Tampa the obvious one, but also Philly and Boston), while I also think a number of teams are ranked ridiculously high as well(San Jose, Montreal, St. Louis, just to name a few).



Long story short I just think this list is pretty awful. And I dont even think my favorite team is one of the biggest problems with the list.

 

[Maverick41]

That is a very nice breakdown of the rankings. Thanks a lot @Critical91 (Love the avatar btw).
I have just skimmed through them for now, but will take a much closer look after work.

 

[Iceman]

HF has the Sharks at 31??? WTF???

Where should Sharks be then? and which Team should be #31?

 

[Critical13]

This is a terrible list as was Pronman's, laughable

What’s your list?

 

[AmericanDream]

Where should Sharks be then? and which Team should be #31?

if the Sharks are at 31st overall in the league in prospects, then this is the golden era of hockey...

there is NO way Pitt, Columbus and Washington should be ahead of them.

I take them over the Devils, Flames, and Preds though a bit closer...

The Sharks have a much better top 5 than any of these teams, and always hit on some later picks as well..

I am no Sharks fan, but you can look at their list and go no f***ing way they are 31st...Pronman has them much higher though I do not agree with him a lot..

The Caps are the worst right now and it isn't really close for me...

 

[wingsnut19]

This is a terrible list as was Pronman's, laughable

It is a compilation, so which other list are you laughing at?