Opinion: Forward Shots on the Leafs

[Tarmore]

I was thinking watching the game last night. How to rank the Leafs. Ranking them not on the effectiveness of their overall play (looking up goals would be easy).

This would be ranking them on how you feel about the players ability to beat the goalie on a shot, no screen, no cross ice pass. Just a clean shot. (not that anyone does this every time)

I think the first three are pretty easy.

1) Matthews - obvious choice, can meat goalies cleanly
Next two you can debate the order but I think would be the consensus choices
2) Nylander - I think is the #2 choice has the ability to beat goalies with snap and wrist shots from in close and mid range clean.
3) Tavares - has done this many times different ways.

Then it gets not so clear for me (and a buddy I discussed it with this morning)

My next choice was Spezza, he shows occasionally he still has his shot from time to time.

My buddy thought Kase was his #4 choice and it's hard to argue I just haven't seen enough of it yet.

Marner - I don't think has a dangerous shot 1v1 on any goalie. His goals are more scored with hockey IQ not on shot quality IMO.

Some might like Bunting or Kerfoot as the #4

I would have made it a poll but don't know how. More interested in opinions so this will probably be better

Click to read more...

 

[67leafs]

I agree with your top 3

then spezza/kase, then bunting

 

[PromisedLand]

Didn't want to create a new thread so posting it here. NHL has a great article and FINALLY someone using CONTEXT when using analytics instead of BLINDLY throwing numbers like expected bullshit per 60

Blashill gives inside look at in-depth use of analytics for Red Wings

some blurb from the article:

For example, an inner-slot shot won't count as a scoring chance if it's weak and into a stationary goalie, but a bad-angle shot will count if it's a backdoor one-timer at a goalie pushing across the crease.

"There's more to a scoring chance than where the shot comes from, and one of the things I've learned from people a lot smarter than me -- but it does make sense to me as a former goalie -- the degree of which the goalie has to move to make that save is another huge factor to whether it's a scoring chance or not," Blashill said.


Why expected bullshit per 60 like xGF is really BS

Can a missed shot be a scoring chance? Depends.

"I'm ultimately not trying to measure the goalie; I'm trying to measure the story of the game," Blashill said. "If we get a breakaway and miss the net, that's a scoring chance for us. If we're on a 2-on-1 and get a great shot off and miss the net, that's still a scoring chance for us. I might not give the guy that missed the net a chance, but I'm giving the team a scoring chance.

"We say that if a player makes a defensive play to negate the shot from hitting the net, then it's not a scoring chance. So if you give up a 2-on-1 and get a stick on it, even though you gave up a dangerous rush, it's not a scoring chance."

 

[zeke]

Didn't want to create a new thread so posting it here. NHL has a great article and FINALLY someone using CONTEXT when using analytics instead of BLINDLY throwing numbers like expected bullshit per 60

Blashill gives inside look at in-depth use of analytics for Red Wings

some blurb from the article:

For example, an inner-slot shot won't count as a scoring chance if it's weak and into a stationary goalie, but a bad-angle shot will count if it's a backdoor one-timer at a goalie pushing across the crease.

"There's more to a scoring chance than where the shot comes from, and one of the things I've learned from people a lot smarter than me -- but it does make sense to me as a former goalie -- the degree of which the goalie has to move to make that save is another huge factor to whether it's a scoring chance or not," Blashill said.


Why expected bullshit per 60 like xGF is really BS

Can a missed shot be a scoring chance? Depends.

"I'm ultimately not trying to measure the goalie; I'm trying to measure the story of the game," Blashill said. "If we get a breakaway and miss the net, that's a scoring chance for us. If we're on a 2-on-1 and get a great shot off and miss the net, that's still a scoring chance for us. I might not give the guy that missed the net a chance, but I'm giving the team a scoring chance.

"We say that if a player makes a defensive play to negate the shot from hitting the net, then it's not a scoring chance. So if you give up a 2-on-1 and get a stick on it, even though you gave up a dangerous rush, it's not a scoring chance."

Not sure why you think any of that makes xG bullshit.

Here are the variables that go into one of the xG models we have, and the statistical significance they've observed in each variable - as you can see its much more nuanced than Blashill's personal take.

 

[Maplebeasts]

1. Matthews Easy choice. The best release in the league with a lot of power, accuracy, and deception with angle changes. He seems to be taking more one timers lately which will only help him score more goals.
2. Tavares. His wrist shot is very accurate and he can beat goalies with it from anywhere up close or mid range. It's not a shot but his hand eye is also the best on the team. I don't remember a better Leaf at deflections.
3. Either Nylander or Spezza. Nylander imo has a better release but doesn't always hit his spot while Spezza I think has a complete howitzer that hits the net more often, at the cost of not having as deceptive of a release.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I think Matthews, Nylander & Spezza are the clear top three.

 

[RunItBackAgain]

1. Matthews Easy choice. The best release in the league with a lot of power, accuracy, and deception with angle changes. He seems to be taking more one timers lately which will only help him score more goals.
2. Tavares. His wrist shot is very accurate and he can beat goalies with it from anywhere up close or mid range. It's not a shot but his hand eye is also the best on the team. I don't remember a better Leaf at deflections.
3. Either Nylander or Spezza. Nylander imo has a better release but doesn't always hit his spot while Spezza I think has a complete howitzer that hits the net more often, at the cost of not having as deceptive of a release.

AM34 has the best hand-eye it’s not close.

I’d agree with JT at #2 though