Only game being played is the blame game(CBA Negotiation discussion thread) - Part IV

[ColePens]

Previous thread: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1260335

Last 4 posts:

Nothing is going to get done until Fehr stops his unrealistic expectation of the 7% growth.

Would you care to tell us what your growth projection for the next four years is then?

Is there any way NBC could possibly make a move as an outside party to try and get this resolved by threatening the NHL saying if they do not resolve the situation before a certain date they will back out of the contract and refuse to broadcast any games? I would imagine there is some crap written into the contract possibly forcing them to be binded to broadcasting games outside of the network going belly up but just wondering.

What has been leaked is that NBC will pay the NHL the annual broadcast rights fee (est $200 MM) even if there is a lockout. The lost year gets tacked on to the end of the agreement (year 11 of the a ten year term), with no rights fee due for that year. A swap.

Nothing has been reported about a second lost year or other details, and if the league would get the full amount.Would you care to tell us what your growth projection for the next four years is then?

I really agree with a lot of what you post Crazed.

I am feeling tremendous backlash toward the players in my everyday circles. I suspect that many of the dozens of people that I speak with about this dispute are not on HF Boards, or answering TSN polls.

The recent quotes by Brendan Morrison and Guy Lafleur have had all of my circle of friends and business colleagues nodding their heads in agreement...really telling when Morrison says the silence is "scary" - he should be scared. I used to be really perplexed as to why the NHL "muzzled" the owners on CBA issues. After seeing all the quotes spewed by the players and agents over the past few weeks - I am struck by the utter stupidity. They are inflicting damage to the very game that they are trying to share revenue from!?!?

Wow, just wow...respond to the last proposal, or get another proposal back to the owners already

Detroit fans who bother to vote in polls on local media sites are trending in blaming the owners:


http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/2012/09/detroit_red_wings_fans_gary_be_1.html

Of course, this is all very scientific.

Agreed, that is a great read. I too have not considered the players greedy...just stubborn = don't you get it? From the article, the owners are for the most part the ones that can walk away comfortably.

Click to read more...

 

[TCsmyth]

Lol Fugu...yep, those polls are indeed about as scientific as my opinions!

 

[Fugu]

Lol Fugu...yep, those polls are indeed about as scientific as my opinions!

We've found something upon which to agree.

 

[Shrimper]

Is there a labour case that's being heard today? I seem to recall something like that which is what the PA were using to delay making a decision.

 

[Honeycutt]

Is there a labour case that's being heard today? I seem to recall something like that which is what the PA were using to delay making a decision.

Yes, going on right now. That is probrably the reason there were no talks this week, NHLPa wants to see what the result of this case will be.

 

[Shrimper]

Yes, going on right now. That is probrably the reason there were no talks this week, NHLPa wants to see what the result of this case will be.

What would be the case if they could rule against a lockout though? Would that cause other provinces to do the same or would it just create more problems?

 

[kdb209]

<insert witty intro here>

09-10-2012 Sides 'a long way apart' (MOD: CBA negotiations status thread)
09-13-2012 Lockout Looming (MOD: CBA negotiations status thread) - Part II
09-15-2012 No last ditch attempt to avoid lockout (CBA Negotiations status thread) - Part III
09-21-2012 Only game being played is the blame game(CBA Negotiation discussion

Coming soon: index of other Lockout threads.

 

[Krishna]

They need to finally get some meetings going.

 

[Honeycutt]

What would be the case if they could rule against a lockout though? Would that cause other provinces to do the same or would it just create more problems?

I dont' think so, i think it would only be the teams in that province. I think the other provinces have already ruled the lockout legal.

 

[WinterEmpire]

What would be the case if they could rule against a lockout though? Would that cause other provinces to do the same or would it just create more problems?

At the very least it would put more pressure on the owners affected by the ruling.

 

[Samzilla]

They need to finally get some meetings going.

Yup. Frankly it's appalling that they weren't burning the midnight oil negotiating in the days leading up to the lockout and that they haven't been busting their ***** since to resolve this. If they don't even care to pretend like they're making an effort to resolve this, why should I make an effort to open up my wallet for them when they return?

To be honest, right now I'm terribly bitter at both sides. They've both behaved like children and have learned nothing from the last lockouts and strike about how to communicate. This could've been avoided.

 

[Casper]

they are still fighting over leverage. Thinks will pick (or dramatically shut down) after this rediculous hearing.

 

[BLONG7]

Glad that Fehr and Bettman are both NOT being paid right now...because neither are earning it...very dis-respectful to the game and the fans...

 

[Chippewa]

We've lost the preseason. Ok. The real lockout begins when we lose regular season games.

I still think that is the real deadline the players and owners are looking at.

 

[Pepper]

CAD from 1/01 to 12/04 was between 0.6 and 0.8 USD, it has been over 0.8 USD ever since, with being roughly 0.95 on average since 2004.

Ten year average would there fore include 3 years of "low" CAD and 7 years of "high" CAD.

The chances of NHL growing revenues 7% per year for the next 5-10 years is quite unlikely.

And you also are stretching the proposed term to highlight the risk-- which I am not arguing isn't there. I'm arguing that historical data is the first and best basis for actually making any kind of projection. If you want to assign a probability of any level being reached, there are mathematical ways to do that.

~Of course~ it's riskier to predict a growth rate in 5-10 yrs down the line the next 1-5 yrs.

For the record, the NHLPA's offer for term was four years.

<copied from previous thread>

I'm not streching the term because it's very realistic to expect a 5-10y CBA whenever this mess is solved.

The revenues during last CBA *greatly* benefitted from increased value of CAD, 3 of the top6 revenue teams being CAD teams. That's an artificial gain as far as small teams in USA are considered.

NHLPA's 4y CBA offer is totally unrealistic (in more ways than one) and everybody knows it. If I had to predict, I'd say the next CBA is 6y+ because I don't think the players want to go through this mess any time soon.

Historical data is the best way to project future but you have to dig deeper in to the data to understand it.

NHLPA knows that a huge part of revenue growth was because of increase in CAD, therefore they're happy to de-link the salary cap from revenue growth because they know similar growth is not likely to happen in the next few years.

 

[JMT21]

Regarding the 7% "best guess" growth rates.

What kind of growth did the league see in the 2 or 3 years before the last lockout..... and what growth was seen in the first year AFTER the lost season.

If another entire season was lost.... I'd expect growth in the year or two following to be much less than 7%.

IIRC...... when the last lockout was called in September 2004..... I'm fairly certain talks broke off entirely for 3 months. Please let that not be the case this time.

 

[Epsilon]

Regarding the 7% growth rate estimates, to be fair to Fehr () one of the US presidential candidates is banking on growth rates like that (and an explosion in income inequality) in order for all the promises in his tax plan to make sense.

 

[Pepper]

Regarding the 7% growth rate estimates, to be fair to Fehr () one of the US presidential candidates is banking on growth rates like that (and an explosion in income inequality) in order for all the promises in his tax plan to make sense.

Obama or Romney (guessing the latter)?

 

[Fugu]

I'm not streching the term because it's very realistic to expect a 5-10y CBA whenever this mess is solved.

The revenues during last CBA *greatly* benefitted from increased value of CAD, 3 of the top6 revenue teams being CAD teams. That's an artificial gain as far as small teams in USA are considered.

We [HF bohb] (namely Fourier) estimated that 14% of the HRR growth over the term of this CBA has been due to inorganic growth (currency translation).


NHLPA's 4y CBA offer is totally unrealistic (in more ways than one) and everybody knows it. If I had to predict, I'd say the next CBA is 6y+ because I don't think the players want to go through this mess any time soon.

Historical data is the best way to project future but you have to dig deeper in to the data to understand it.

NHLPA knows that a huge part of revenue growth was because of increase in CAD, therefore they're happy to de-link the salary cap from revenue growth because they know similar growth is not likely to happen in the next few years.

I think they' d like to de-link for other reasons, but that's beside the point here.

So once again, my case is to argue one thing--- the NHLPA proposal of 7.1% is based on a 10 yr avg rate and for a term of 4 yrs (because that is WHAT they proposed).

You can extend and qualify it further, and I may agree, but I didn't find the use of such historical data for their term to be unreasonable at all, to the contrary.

 

[Epsilon]

Obama or Romney (guessing the latter)?

Yep. Analysis of the details he's made available with regards to his tax reform plan (which are few and far between) by several reputable economists/accountants suggest the only way it can make sense and accomplish what he claims is under incredibly strong growth assumptions in which income inequality explodes (something ridiculous like a 0.05-0.1 increase in the Gini coefficient).

Note: this is not being offered to start some kind of political argument, only to show that these sorts of overly optimistic growth projections are an element of the current economic discourse.

 

[Pepper]

I think they' d like to de-link for other reasons, but that's beside the point here.

What are the other reasons? Please elaborate.

You can extend and qualify it further, and I may agree, but I didn't find the use of such historical data for their term to be unreasonable at all, to the contrary.

So even when you know that large part of the revenue growth is because of exchange rates, you don't find it unreasonable to project further growth at the same rate? That would mean CAD will hit 1.25 during the next CBA.

 

[Dado]

So even when you know that large part of the revenue growth is because of exchange rates, you don't find it unreasonable to project further growth at the same rate?

What rate would you suggest?

 

[Epsilon]

So even when you know that large part of the revenue growth is because of exchange rates, you don't find it unreasonable to project further growth at the same rate? That would mean CAD will hit 1.25 during the next CBA.

If you believe some of the goofballs hoarding gold and silver and getting their economic advice from guys like Peter Schiff and Ron Paul, that (or worse) will happen in the next few years as the US dollar collapses.

Personally, I find that highly unlikely.

 

[Kashie14]

What rate would you suggest?

This is missing the point a bit. The other side isn't projecting revenue growth because it doesn't need or want to. If the PA has faith in its 7.1% growth then it should have no problem with linked revenue.

Instead, the PA's proposal has a conditional point at 3.9% growth where it gives up more money, but the upper limit is only 8.9% (IIRC). 1.8% wiggle room above but 3.2% wiggle room below. That, to me, indicates the PA does not have faith in its projection.

Of course, that's a bit simplistic. Players may just sincerely want the league to burden the risk instead of them.

 

[Richard]

its funny, I really dont care anymore. Im still getting my hockey fix in other areas.