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Olympic Break look-ahead (Number-crunching)

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HansH

HansH

Unwelcome Spectre
Feb 2, 2005
5,294
482
San Diego
So, the Kings are done playing (as a team) for the next 19 days. A fine opportunity for us to all gnaw over the personnel issues, of course, and that will continue apace, I'm sure.

But, as I'm wont to do, I want to create a space to talk numbers, projections, and records over the break. Thus this thread.

I'll start out with some overanalysis of numbers that the real world will certainly make a mockery of over the final seven weeks of the season.

When the Kings start playing again, they'll have 23 games left in the space of 46 days, 11 at home, 12 on the road.

I'm not even going to imagine the possibility of running down Anaheim -- a 17-point lead falling away in 23 games would require an even more epic slump for the junior squad than the Kings have managed. For reference, the Kings were 7-14-2 in the last 23 games, and the Ducks were 16-7 -- that's a swing of sixteen points total. That's right, if the Kings became the Ducks right now, and the Ducks turned into the Kings... the Ducks would STILL win the division by one point. Let that sink in.

So, switching to some more reasonable possibilities: the Kings will be between 10 and 12 points behind San Jose for home ice in the first round -- which I'll assume most of us will agree is HIGHLY PREFERABLE, if not actually vital and crucial. San Jose will have 23 games left as well, 12 at home, 11 on the road. Their home record supports them getting 19 points (out of 24) at home, and their road record supports them getting 12 (out of 22) on the road, for a total of 31 points.

So, the Kings will need 42 to 44 points out of the remaining 23 games in order to overtake the Sharks unless the Sharks stumble. That translates to a record approaching 22-0-1. Ouch. By doing the same home/road breakdown on the Kings' remaining schedule, I come up with an expectation of 14 points (of 22) at home, and 13 points (of 24) on the road, for a total of 27 points (a record of 13-9-1). So -- they'll have to turn nine regulation losses into wins, somehow...

Now, some of you are saying "well wait a minute, the Kings play the Sharks in the remaining games, and that March schedule is easy!"

Well, let's try to mathematically analyze that. The Kings' remaining opponents and head-to-head records are:

CGY (0H/3A) - 0-2
WSH (1H/1A) - 0-0
WPG (1H/1A) - 0-1
ANA (2H/0A) - 1-2
EDM (0H/2A) - 2-0
PHX (2H/0A) - 1-2
SJ (1A) - 3-0-1
VAN (1A) - 4-0
MTL (1H) - 1-0
FLA (1H) - 1-0
TOR (1H) - 1-0
CAR (1H) - 1-0
PHI (1A) - 0-1
PIT (1A) - 0-1
COL (1A) - 1-0-1
MIN (1H) - 1-0-1

So, the Kings have only one opportunity for a head-to-head win over the Sharks. They ARE 1-0-1 in San Jose, and 3-0-1 overall, so that's encouraging, but still not a huge counterweight to the other trends.

By taking the head to head records with some rounding, I get about 23 points for the Kings expected out of the remaining 23 games.

That's right, based on the Kings' actual performance this season, that "easy schedule" actually works out to a .500 record, 91 points, and a tie with Phoenix for 3rd Pacific/2nd Wildcard.

I started this post/thread with the hopes that crunching the numbers would make things look not as bad as the recent 7-14-2 stretch has made it look... but from my analysis of the math alone, there's very little reason to believe that something other than a MASSIVE change in either the attitude or the makeup of that locker room before they take the ice again on February 26th for the final seven-week sprint will lead to anything other than limping into the playoffs with no hope of home ice.

Discuss.
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They will Finish in third(division) with 95-97 points. This slide has all but sealed the Kings fate, of no home ice and a tough road through the playoff's.

First round match up with SJ and no home ice.
 
TheSentinel said:
Thanks HansH now i want a drink, it's socially unacceptable to start this early. :help: :sarcasm:
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Isn't this whole BOARD pretty much socially unacceptable? *chuckles* Try looking at the panda gifs in yesterday's GDT and the PGT - that should make you laugh some :)
 
I am of the opinion that unless they can pull it together, this team will not make the playoffs.

If they do squeek in somehow, I am actually hoping to play the Ducks in the first round as I think LA can actually take that series.
 
What do you expect we need our record to be to just make the playoffs period? 13-9-1 minimum?
 
MollerManor said:
What do you expect we need our record to be to just make the playoffs period? 13-9-1 minimum?
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No, that's just to keep pace. To make the playoffs, something like 10-10-3 would be nervous-making time depending on what other teams do, 11-9-3 would likely be _decently_ in playoff position... I think.
 
HansH said:
No, that's just to keep pace. To make the playoffs, something like 10-10-3 would be nervous-making time depending on what other teams do, 11-9-3 would likely be _decently_ in playoff position... I think.
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Pretty much. Depends on what other teams do, as well. I think it's reasonable to assume that what you see is what you get with Van and Phx, but you can't write off a hot streak by either of them (or both--which could put us in REAL hot water for even a wild card, since Min and even WPG is coming on lately).
 
HansH said:
No, that's just to keep pace. To make the playoffs, something like 10-10-3 would be nervous-making time depending on what other teams do, 11-9-3 would likely be _decently_ in playoff position... I think.
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Noted. As always, thanks for doing all this stats stuff. I enjoy it.
 
AlabamaKingsFan said:
I also don't put it past the kings to re-charge and run off a nice little win/point streak themselves.
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Neither do I -- but as you see, it'll take more than just a "nice little win/point streak" to seriously challenge for home ice against San Jose, which was part of the point of the numeric exercise, alas.
 
Perro that reminds me, isn't there a strength-of-schedule fancystat out there somewhere? Would be an interesting visual for this thread. Will look after I get some lunch.
 
well done Hans

i need a drink after this to deaden the pain. this stretch really killed the season for them. i wasn't expecting much, so it isn't a great surprise but that doesn't make it any easier to accept.

the one positive that SHOULD come from this season is Dean will now have no reason to keep carrying 2012 expectations from anyone on this roster. if he does he isn't doing his job and will eventually follow the players
 
Brad Doty said:
Perro that reminds me, isn't there a strength-of-schedule fancystat out there somewhere? Would be an interesting visual for this thread. Will look after I get some lunch.
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Did you ever find this? I'd enjoy that being added to the mix here, too...
 
HansH said:
Did you ever find this? I'd enjoy that being added to the mix here, too...
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I'm on the go right now so I can't look it up again--i only saw one from a kind of off-the-board site so I didn't post it. But I do remember reading a better reputed one at some point. I'll have to do some digging when I'm free because I think that would definitely help paint the picture.

There's no denying our last stretch was paiiiinful opponent and travel-wise in comparison to what lies ahead.
 
The Kings have it easy schedule wise going forward. Mostly at home, some light travel, some East coast teams. Only Two more CENTRAL games to play.

Most of the Pacific games will be played at home. Honestly the hardest part looks to be Three more games VS Calgary.
 
BfVS3BdCQAAJ_4N.jpg


https://twitter.com/TravisHeHateMe/status/429340444854456320

this was jan. 31st but it's not obviously significantly different from that.

here are each team's numbers from jan. 31.
 
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