Proposal: Oilers/Rangers - Draisaitl for Shesterkin

[n8]

I don't see any player close to the level of Draisaitl going back in any of the goalie trades. The bottom line is that it is far more likely that the Oilers re-sign Draisaitl than not and certainly far more likely that he would re-sign with the Oilers than it is Shesterkin re-signing with the Oilers as a UFA. Literally, the only way this trade would happen is if Draisaitl makes it clear he will not re-sign.

Well if you want to talk reality, trade rumors and free agent talk on the main board probably ain't a good place to hang out. It takes a special type of crazy to even both clicking on a thread titled Shesterkin for Draisaitl

also, did you only read the trades listed and ignore the first paragraph?

That's a bit of a logical fallacy saying that because there is no data to support the claim that it is automatically false. There have been big trades but yes, I can't think of any one for one super star forward for super star goalie trades, both 1 year from UFA. Are you a Texas Sharpshooter?

You can look at similar caliber trades that don't have the exact formula in the OP.

 

[La Bamba]

This trade fills a hole but creates a significantly bigger one

You keep guys like Drai for their entire career if you can

 

[bernmeister]

I cannot see how anyone could view a trade with Draisaitl for Shesterkin as a rational ask. I see how you view the cap working. I did ask about that. I hadn't realized you were still including Drai for Shesty.

The only way Draisaitl's value could go down is if he demanded a trade from the Oilers and would ONLY go to the Rangers. The fact is he wants to sign long term with Edmonton, so that isn't even a pipedream for NYR fans.

I get yr reluctance to go there.
Boils down to coupla things, mostly what McD wants
then what Drai wants

looking at objectively
it does speak to both teams shoring up relative weakness by surplus

McD = elite F. So is Drai = surplus
Oil G is good, but good enuf?
So ? is how much net gain to deal elite F for elite G?

Rs in reciprocal position, gamble is Garand is good enuf fast enuf

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I get yr reluctance to go there.
Boils down to coupla things, mostly what McD wants
then what Drai wants

looking at objectively
it does speak to both teams shoring up relative weakness by surplus

McD = elite F. So is Drai = surplus
Oil G is good, but good enuf?
So ? is how much net gain to deal elite F for elite G?

Rs in reciprocal position, gamble is Garand is good enuf fast enuf

are they like Highlanders? One elite forward per team and the other gets decapitated?

 

[Fourier]

Well if you want to talk reality, trade rumors and free agent talk on the main board probably ain't a good place to hang out. It takes a special type of crazy to even both clicking on a thread titled Shesterkin for Draisaitl

also, did you only read the trades listed and ignore the first paragraph?

First off you wrote:

You can make an argument of which ones are closest to these two players. Based off of these many comparable examples that involve players of comparable caliber to Draisaitl and taking the side of forwards being more valuable, you might argue that NYR would add a bit more.

My argument is that there are no deals for goalies that are even close to returning a guy of Draisaitl's caliber so which one is closest is kind of irrelevant.

Now, the comment you were responding to was that goalies don't carry nearly as much value as their status suggest relative to similar tier skaters. In this case, the absence of counter data does indeed support this hypothesis especially when you look at the actual returns for top goalies in the past. Furthermore, your deals for forwards typically involve significantly more substantial returns than the deals for the comparable top goalies you posted. But even in that regard the closest you would come to find a forward in that group traded while at the same level as Draisaitl is now is probably the Messier deal. But the circumstances were vastly different. Messier was a liquidation trade and he still returned substantially more than the likely return of a pending UFA Sheterkin.


If the premise is that Draisaitl has told the Oilers that he definitely won't sign, something the OP did not explicitly assume, then some of your forward trades come more into play as comparables since the Oilers hands would be tied to a significant degree. Without that premise, the return for Draisaitl needed to get the Oilers to move one would be substantially more than a goalie who is more unlikely to re-sign than Draisaitl.

 

[TFHockey]

are they like Highlanders? One elite forward per team and the other gets decapitated?

THERE CAN ONLY BE ONE!

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

I just feel like because there is a generational, perhaps all time player in McDavid also in Edmonton, it will always be impossible to fully appreciate how good Draisaitl really is. He's an all world talent. If McDavid wasn't around I think he would be the consensus #1 in the world.

As a Rangers fan, who just witnessed Shesterkin absolutely dominate in the playoffs, the Oilers hard pass on this.

Yah I'm pretty sure the actual #1 in the world would have something to say about that......

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

View attachment 883659

Yah I'm pretty sure the actual #1 in the world would have something to say about that......

Perfectly reasonable choice as well

 

[mydnyte]

That's a bit of a logical fallacy saying that because there is no data to support the claim that it is automatically false. There have been big trades but yes, I can't think of any one for one super star forward for super star goalie trades, both 1 year from UFA. Are you a Texas Sharpshooter?

You can look at similar caliber trades that don't have the exact formula in the OP.

Tkachuk <--> Huberdeau, Weegar, Cole Schwindt + 1st
Marty St Louis + 2nd <--> Ryan Callahan + 1st + 1st + 7th
Roenick <--> Zhamnov + Craig Mills + 1st
Paul Coffey, Keith Primeau + 1st <--> Shanahan, Brian Glenn
Mark Messier <--> Bernie Nicholls, Louie DeBrusk, Steven Rice
Bernie Nicholls <--> Tony Granato, Tomas Sandstrom
Ron Francis, Ulf Samuelsson, Grant Jennings <--> John Cullen, Zarley Zalapski, Jeff Parker
Artemi Panarin, Tyler Motte + 6th <--> Brandon Saad, Anton Forsberg + 5th
Joe Thornton <--> Wayne Primeau, Brad Stuart, Marco Sturm
Jarome Iginla + Corey Millen <--> Joe Nieuwendyk (Iginla was still in juniors but was coming off a 136 season)
Alexei Yashin <--> Jason Spezza, Zdeno Chara, Bill Muckalt
Ryan McDonagh + JT Miller <--> Vlad Namenstnikov, Brett Howden, Libor Hajek + 1st + 2nd
Jeff Carter <--> Voracek + 1st + 3rd
Jean Ratelle, Brad Park, Joe Zanussi <--> Phil Esposito, Carol Vadnais

Trades with big goalies
Ryan Miller + Ott <--> Halak, Chris Stewart, William Carrier + 1st + 3rd
Roberto Luongo, Lukas Krajicke, + 6th <--> Todd Bertuzzi, Bryan Allen, Alex Auld
Curtis Joseph + Mike Grier <--> 1st + 1st
Ed Belfour <--> Ulf Dahlen, Michael Sykora, Chris Terrari, 1st
Patrick Roy, Mike Keane <--> Andrei Kovalenko, Martin Rucinsky, Jocelyn Thibault
Grant Fuhr <--> Dave Andreychuk, Daren Puppa, 1st
Nikolai Khabibulin, Stan Neckar <--> Mike Johnson, Paul Mara, Ruslan Zaynullin + 2nd

You can make an argument of which ones are closest to these two players. Based off of these many comparable examples that involve players of comparable caliber to Draisaitl and taking the side of forwards being more valuable, you might argue that NYR would add a bit more.

^This for example is a reasonable counter offer.

you missed one interesting Goalie trade

Felix Potvin for Bryan Berard

...Potvin had already been replaced as the Leafs just sign Joseph the previous season, and had gotten injured
Berard was a #1 overall D-man who showed glimpses of his potential, but lost an eye on a high stick.

in this case, it was a declining goalie for an up and coming #1 overall potential #1D (if his career wasnt screwed up, as he even played pretty well with only 1 eye for a few seasons.

 

[bernmeister]

are they like Highlanders? One elite forward per team and the other gets decapitated?

"there can be only one"?

or
"2 be or not 2 be" -- that is the ?

 

[T REX]

This makes literally no sense for the Rangers.

I don’t care if HF has their “goalies aren’t real” narrative.

Draisaitl is a better version of two players that are by far the biggest problem with the current Rangers (Zibanejad and Panarin). We don’t need another PP specialist. And there’s no McDavid on our team either, so Edmonton has to pay that tax on any trade. His point totals are going down when he doesn’t play with a top 5 player ever on the PP and plenty at evens.

The Rangers only got as far as they did due to their goaltending. So they trade the best part of their team to add another finesse forward for their PP and then the goaltending that has saved them is going to be handed over to a 40 year old that tanked the second half of last season? No thanks. And we have every reason to believe we’ll sign Igor. I don’t pay much attention to if Edmonton is going to struggle to sign Draisaitl, but there’s no indication to believe we’ll have any issue signing our best player.

Big fat no thanks. And I don’t care if “it’s good HF value.” It’s not good common sense value for the Rangers.

This times 10000000

No way I am trading Drai for Vasy or Shesty. Hell no. Not even 1 for 1. If goalies are so easy to come by...why doesn't EDM have one yet? How many years looking? No thanks. Keep the guy who rides shotgun on the MCD express. Pass.

 

[ElPrimeTime]

I get yr reluctance to go there.
Boils down to coupla things, mostly what McD wants
then what Drai wants

By all accounts, interviews, social media posts and general demeanor... you know what McDavid wants... he wants to be playing with his "Ride or Die". Barring some sort of bitter, nasty feud, these guys want to be with each. No amount of Shesterkins or Zibbys are going to change that.

 

[n8]

My argument is that there are no deals for goalies that are even close to returning a guy of Draisaitl's caliber so which one is closest is kind of irrelevant.

It's not an argument if we are in agreement.

Now, the comment you were responding to was that goalies don't carry nearly as much value as their status suggest relative to similar tier skaters. In this case, the absence of counter data does indeed support this hypothesis especially when you look at the actual returns for top goalies in the past. Furthermore, your deals for forwards typically involve significantly more substantial returns than the deals for the comparable top goalies you posted. But even in that regard the closest you would come to find a forward in that group traded while at the same level as Draisaitl is now is probably the Messier deal. But the circumstances were vastly different. Messier was a liquidation trade and he still returned substantially more than the likely return of a pending UFA Sheterkin.

If the premise is that Draisaitl has told the Oilers that he definitely won't sign, something the OP did not explicitly assume, then some of your forward trades come more into play as comparables since the Oilers hands would be tied to a significant degree. Without that premise, the return for Draisaitl needed to get the Oilers to move one would be substantially more than a goalie who is more unlikely to re-sign than Draisaitl.

I think for this discussion, you have to assume Draisaitl is not resigning otherwise it's entirely moot and pointless. I think we agree there.

In the impending UFA scenario, you can see it as or similar to a liquidation trade scenario i.e. get some value instead of losing a bonafide star for nothing.

So if we assuming... let's say similar but very different circumstances - we agree there are not previous trades that give us a solid basis to go off of. The discussion, should we actually want to have it, is really what is the value of each player? Who are comparable players to the two in question? You can argue that very few modern players can compare to Draisaitl so you might have to go a bit back to find anyone who helps the conversation. Furthering the difficulty is finding players who are comparable at a similar age. It's quite probable of that small list, you'll find that none of them are ever traded - let alone at a prime age. Again, Messier does come to mind as he was traded at the age of 30, still 2 years after Draisaitl's current age of 28 but the pickings be slim. Generally if you don't have to trade these types of players, you never do.

The "comparable" mark I've set for this convo was players with multiple 100+ point seasons before the age of 30. Draisaitl currently has 5 of these.
So comparables first: Steve Yzerman (not traded), Joe Sakic (not traded), Mark Messier, Adam Oates, Bernie Nicholls (there are sure to be some I'm missing)
Slightly comparable but older, thus missing the mark: Ron Francis, Peter Forsberg
Below the mark comparables: Matt Tkachuk, Pat Lafontaine, Eric Lindross, Joe Thornton

I'm gonna stop here because you might not even want to have this convo so it's a good place to stop to see how on board you are with this so far.

 

[Fourier]

It's not an argument if we are in agreement.


I think for this discussion, you have to assume Draisaitl is not resigning otherwise it's entirely moot and pointless. I think we agree there.

In the impending UFA scenario, you can see it as or similar to a liquidation trade scenario i.e. get some value instead of losing a bonafide star for nothing.

So if we assuming... let's say similar but very different circumstances - we agree there are not previous trades that give us a solid basis to go off of. The discussion, should we actually want to have it, is really what is the value of each player? Who are comparable players to the two in question? You can argue that very few modern players can compare to Draisaitl so you might have to go a bit back to find anyone who helps the conversation. Furthering the difficulty is finding players who are comparable at a similar age. It's quite probable of that small list, you'll find that none of them are ever traded - let alone at a prime age. Again, Messier does come to mind as he was traded at the age of 30, still 2 years after Draisaitl's current age of 28 but the pickings be slim. Generally if you don't have to trade these types of players, you never do.

The "comparable" mark I've set for this convo was players with multiple 100+ point seasons before the age of 30. Draisaitl currently has 5 of these.
So comparables first: Steve Yzerman (not traded), Joe Sakic (not traded), Mark Messier, Adam Oates, Bernie Nicholls (there are sure to be some I'm missing)
Slightly comparable but older, thus missing the mark: Ron Francis, Peter Forsberg
Below the mark comparables: Matt Tkachuk, Pat Lafontaine, Eric Lindross, Joe Thornton

I'm gonna stop here because you might not even want to have this convo so it's a good place to stop to see how on board you are with this so far.

Assuming the premise is that Leon wants to move on then yes a trade would make sense rather than risking losing him for nothing. But such a trade would need to produce a stable return that would keep the team's window open beyond next year. If not why not just take your chances with Draisaitl, especially with McDavid's pending UFA year being only one year after Leon's. I don't see them looking at another pending UFA, as a key target unless that player was willing to sign a long term extension immediately.

Shesterkin in particular would be a big risk. Ignoring the value of a goalie for a second, rightly or wrongly, the Oilers have historically been shy about investing in Russian players and have not had a great track record with Russian players wanting to play or stay in Edmonton. There have been a few notable exceptions but on the whole it has not worked out all that well. As a UFA Shesterkin could choose where he wanted to play. That may even be returning to NYC.

If the Oilers were to trade Draisaitl for a Russian goalie, I think they might look at a deal that opens up other options. For example, I'd talk to Nashville about Askarov. Something around Askarov and Fabbro as the key pieces would address two needs. Then the Oilers can use the extra cap space to go for some additional offense. They could for example try and sign Geuntzel or Reinhart. In fact, if the Oilers knew Leon was moving on, I'd go hard for one of those guys before making the trade. Now would Nashville make that deal for an unsigned Draisaitl? I have no idea. But from an Oiler's perspective that is the type of deal I think they would try to make regardless if it is for a goalie. Try to get a couple of cheaper impact players with upside and then use the cap space to add another impact player.

 

[spaghtti]

Looks at Bobrovsky... looks at the oilers... looks at the 3-0, look back at bobrovsky...

Shrugs shoulders.. "goalies don't hold that kind of value"

Why isn't shesterkin in the finals than

 

[broc]

Trading Drai for a goalie is ludicrous , no matter which way you try to spin it.

The vast majority of ppl would be comfortable signing Drai to an 8 year $12 million dollar AAV contract.

Conversely, most ppl wouldnt feel near as confident signing Shesterkin to an 8 yr contract with a close to $10 mil a year (or higher) long term contract.

And guys like bern and other NYR fans know it and want nothing to do with having likely the next Carey Price contract.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Trading Drai for a goalie is ludicrous , no matter which way you try to spin it.

The vast majority of ppl would be comfortable signing Drai to an 8 year $12 million dollar AAV contract.

Conversely, most ppl wouldnt feel near as confident signing Shesterkin to an 8 yr contract with a close to $10 mil a year (or higher) long term contract.

And guys like bern and other NYR fans know it and want nothing to do with having likely the next Carey Price contract.

So glad you’ve taken it upon yourself to decide what everyone thinks.

What about Henrik Lundqvist or Sergei Boborovky? Those contracts didn’t age bad. You recognize too that most of the worst contracts in the league right now are skaters. Almost none are goalies.

But sure, Carey Price, Carey Price, Carey Price. I swear this guy will keep being made relevant by Canadian hockey fans into 2050 because they can’t produce any other good goalies.

Why isn't shesterkin in the finals than

Because, I don’t know, it’s a team sport. Fans in Edmonton don’t seem to grasp this, but it takes more than one or two star players to win in this league.

 

[Fourier]

Because, I don’t know, it’s a team sport. Fans in Edmonton don’t seem to grasp this, but it takes more than one or two star players to win in this league.

You are speaking about a fan base that constantly hears the refrain that downplays McDavid because he does not have multiple cups. I suspect that Edmonton fans know better than most that it takes a team to win in hockey.

 

[bernmeister]

Trading Drai for a goalie is ludicrous , no matter which way you try to spin it.

The vast majority of ppl would be comfortable signing Drai to an 8 year $12 million dollar AAV contract.

Conversely, most ppl wouldnt feel near as confident signing Shesterkin to an 8 yr contract with a close to $10 mil a year (or higher) long term contract.

And guys like bern and other NYR fans know it and want nothing to do with having likely the next Carey Price contract.

yes + no = not exaclly

cap is real so forget 'if there were no cap'
but if there were SUFFICIENT cap, I 'd consider keeping Shesty
although and howev
reality notices additional considerations

winning the cup requires not just putting out contender 1-2 yrs, but skillful maxing of window to do so

during which both cap AND asset mgmt are important

b'c Rs did not listen to bern and did stupid win now = useless rentals costing futures
now they have to pay for that and likely need to deal some top talent to obtain increased quantity of mid level talent with upside so hopefully, net gain/proft

This would be much harder except we have a high end G prospect, Garand, one partial step below the elite prospect names, who is not an immediate guarantee, but looked good in international competition, and, under tutelage of Rs netminder guru Allaire + co, can backup Quick day 1.

So, Garand properly has less value since he is nhl untested. Thus idea must be to repurpose Shesty top $ value so position of depth addresses position of need.

Not writing a big check for one guy is not driven by let's be cheap/frugal, It is what gets best end result

 

[Skolman]

In the 107 year NHL history? Woah, quite the sample size.

One of those demanding a trade, other as a rental at the deadline, and the last before he was looked at as even a starting goalie. Bravo.

Wait, are you actually arguing that Sheterkin's value around the league is even close to Draisaitl's?

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Wait, are you actually arguing that Sheterkin's value around the league is even close to Draisaitl's?

Nope. Try and read better. This is between the Rangers and Oilers. Nothing to do with the league.

 

[Skolman]

Nope. Try and read better. This is between the Rangers and Oilers. Nothing to do with the league.

Sure.

You're literally making an argument that their value is comparable, terrible proposal

 

[spaghtti]

So glad you’ve taken it upon yourself to decide what everyone thinks.

What about Henrik Lundqvist or Sergei Boborovky? Those contracts didn’t age bad. You recognize too that most of the worst contracts in the league right now are skaters. Almost none are goalies.

But sure, Carey Price, Carey Price, Carey Price. I swear this guy will keep being made relevant by Canadian hockey fans into 2050 because they can’t produce any other good goalies.


Because, I don’t know, it’s a team sport. Fans in Edmonton don’t seem to grasp this, but it takes more than one or two star players to win in this league.

I personally think Shesterin is much better than Boborovky, but if I am building a team I am loading up on centers. Definitely don't want a high priced goalie

 

[bernmeister]

I personally think Shesterin is much better than Boborovky, but if I am building a team I am loading up on centers. Definitely don't want a high priced goalie

you may not want one but will need one
Pens nothing to brag about until MAF joinned
AND
coupla yrs he was not in form they were early exits, if memory serves

 

[ElPrimeTime]

you may not want one but will need one
Pens nothing to brag about until MAF joinned
AND
coupla yrs he was not in form they were early exits, if memory serves

I might be one of the biggest MAF fans you'll find... but ummm... their next two first round picks were Malkin and Crosby.