Proposal: Oilers/Rangers - Draisaitl for Shesterkin

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Only on HF do you think they were the second best playoff team while looking like ass most of the playoffs. Yes, they won games. They also weren't the best regular season team because of Shesterkin.

Why does goaltending not matter into how the team played during the playoffs? You are insinuating that the Rangers didn’t deserve their playoff results as if goaltending isn’t a big part of a hockey team. I find this method of analysis to be completely missing the mark. The Oilers are a great example of why you need goaltending and can’t evaluate a team only on the skaters.

And Igor didn’t have his best regular season, but it wasn’t that bad. He had one bad month. Take away that month and he was .920 the rest of the season. Besides, I’m not sure why we’re belittling playoff success when we got bums like Panarin that are MVP candidates during the regular season and then turn into okay second liners in the playoffs. That’s part of the gap the team has left to bridge to win the Stanley Cup.

 

[bernmeister]

This deal is unrealistic for both teams. The Oilers are losing the best player in the deal and getting a lesser market value position value wise as the main piece. You can argue how good Shesty is but in the end a big top scoring center is the most valuable position in hockey and goalies are the least value in trades. This is unattractive to them even with a sweetener, so it becomes a multiple piece trade from the Oilers standpoint. The Rags have good depth in every position except goalie and if Skinner is not good enough for the Oilers, why would he be the answer for the Rags even with a super star like Draisaitl up front.
....

"goalies are the least value in trades"
generically that may be true but not for better quality ones and not for Vez level elite ones

"Rags have good depth in every position except goalie and if Skinner is not good enough for the Oilers, why would he be the answer for the Rags"
The Rs do not have sufficient good depth, they are thin at pivot and Drai would help

As for Skinner, thanks but do not want, you are free to flip him elsewhere.

NY can consider this b'c we have garand, and Quick as a starter breaking him in

how do Rangers improve on a president's trophy season with a downgrade in net?

Like I said
Garand gets as much as he can of what he can handle, and we have Quick as our starter. Domingue fills the gaps.
Of course, it is a big downgrade in net at least until garand displays highly regarded form with varsity, and even then it will only be sufficiently high level quality, not matching elite netminder

but you are getting huge gains elsewhere, more than offsets

 

[thefutures]

Shesterkin says no

 

[KevinFinnerty]

"goalies are the least value in trades"
generically that may be true but not for better quality ones and not for Vez level elite ones

"Rags have good depth in every position except goalie and if Skinner is not good enough for the Oilers, why would he be the answer for the Rags"
The Rs do not have sufficient good depth, they are thin at pivot and Drai would help

As for Skinner, thanks but do not want, you are free to flip him elsewhere.

NY can consider this b'c we have garand, and Quick as a starter breaking him in



Like I said
Garand gets as much as he can of what he can handle, and we have Quick as our starter. Domingue fills the gaps.
Of course, it is a big downgrade in net at least until garand displays highly regarded form with varsity, and even then it will only be sufficiently high level quality, not matching elite netminder

but you are getting huge gains elsewhere, more than offsets

would you go into the playoffs with a 40 year old Quick and Dylan Garand? might as well call up Dan Blackburn to bring his 2 blockers.

 

[bernmeister]

would you go into the playoffs with a 40 year old Quick and Dylan Garand? might as well call up Dan Blackburn to bring his 2 blockers.

that's 1 dimension not looking at all factors

And again, win now is an illusion
smart move is to max # of bites of the apple
and extend our window as much as possible

If the Martians kidnapped Shesty and we were forced to do this, our G picture would obv take some hit but it would fully be sufficient satisfactory, and starting to ride Garand's elc would help w/cap mgt

 

[ColbyChaos]

If centers are so valuable and goalies aren’t, explain the Oilers. Potentially the two best centers in the league and terrible goaltending. Panthers with good, not as amazing, centers and good goaltending are up 3-1.

On the flip side look at New York with Amazing goaltending the last 30 years while never having an elite center and no cups to show for it.

You can then look at Pittsburgh, Chicago, Carolina, the 14 kings, Vegas, Colorado, Anaheim, Detroit, and any other team that actually won the cup since VHS tapes got phased out and see they had an elite C either offensively or an amazing two way C.

Looking at those teams that actually won (unlike New York) it’s clear as day to see that you don’t need a vezina caliber goalie to win the cup. You can win with an average goalie meanwhile no team has won without an elite center

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

On the flip side look at New York with Amazing goaltending the last 30 years while never having an elite center and no cups to show for it.

You can then look at Pittsburgh, Chicago, Carolina, the 14 kings, Vegas, Colorado, Anaheim, Detroit, and any other team that actually won the cup since VHS tapes got phased out and see they had an elite C either offensively or an amazing two way C.

Looking at those teams that actually won (unlike New York) it’s clear as day to see that you don’t need a vezina caliber goalie to win the cup. You can win with an average goalie meanwhile no team has won without an elite center

You've changed the parameters. So now it's elite centers or amazing two-way centers. The reality is that the elite centers parameter wasn't met by a few teams. And I said nothing about needing Vezina caliber goaltenders. However, any team that trades one is now back to looking for a goaltender, which isn't easy. You try to find one and you might end up with Jack Campbell and Stuart Skinner.

Any team that has made the final four two of three years is close enough that they have a good enough core of players. The teams that need to radically restructure are the regular season juggernauts, like the Leafs, that struggle to win playoff games. I'm not overly high on Zibanejad right now, but look at his point and goal totals the last number of years. That's pretty close to elite territory, although I'm pretty aware he needs to take his game to another level with play driving. And then the Rangers have Trocheck who is a very good defensive center and was pretty damn good offensively this year too. So I don't think the Rangers are really lacking at center. I'd love to have Draisaitl, but the Rangers certainly aren't a Minnesota Wild or Boston Bruins when it comes to needing centers.

 

[BudBundy]

Nope from Edmonton

1). Goalies are voodoo

2). Skinners biggest problem is Nurse gifting free goals like promises during an election.

3). If Drai won’t sign an extension, Edmonton will need a 2C first and foremost, plus help on D or maybe a rambunctious winger. Not a goalie.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Nope from Edmonton

1). Goalies are voodoo

2). Skinners biggest problem is Nurse gifting free goals like promises during an election.

3). If Drai won’t sign an extension, Edmonton will need a 2C first and foremost, plus help on D or maybe a rambunctious winger. Not a goalie.

Yep. I agree with this. Not interested at all from an Edmonton POV especially with recent rumours that Draisaitl wants to stay and wants to stay long term.

I don't like the inclusion of Zibanejad and Skinner either. 35 points at even strength doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in me for how he'll perform at 2C with the likes of Ryan McLeod and Dylan Holloway as his wingers.

Draisaitl's even strength production gets crapped on, but when he's not with McDavid he gets' whatever's left over on the wing.

This makes some level of sense but there's a few problems.

1) It's the type of crazy shit that never happens.

2) I agree with those who say goalies have inherently lower value. Shesterkin simply doesn't fetch Draisaitl.

3) You could raise a fair criticism that Draisaitl is a guy who puts up a ton of points but has questionable play-driving. That's already a problem with the Rangers top six.

That means it's a problem for Edmonton too, since Zib doesn't put up the points that Draisaitl does and also has questionable playdriving.

Getting one year of Shesterkin and a Zibanejad exiting his prime is a pretty unattractive package for EDM.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Edmonton would say no, even tho Shesterkin is an awesome goalie

Draisatl is a top 5 talent in the league, you simply just can't trade him, unless he himself ask for a trade

 

[bernmeister]

On the flip side look at New York with Amazing goaltending the last 30 years while never having an elite center and no cups to show for it.

You can then look at Pittsburgh, Chicago, Carolina, the 14 kings, Vegas, Colorado, Anaheim, Detroit, and any other team that actually won the cup since VHS tapes got phased out and see they had an elite C either offensively or an amazing two way C.

Looking at those teams that actually won (unlike New York) it’s clear as day to see that you don’t need a vezina caliber goalie to win the cup. You can win with an average goalie meanwhile no team has won without an elite center

yes and no

yr pt is fair, BUT
pretty much all those guys had high, HIGH end help
most obviously, Sid had Geno, and on top of Malkin, Letang.

A G all by himself can not win it.
But a dominant G does help immensely, and also can help getting into and through the POs

 

[cowboy82nd]

You could look at it from the other side and show one example where a goalie was traded for a 1C? Pretty sure never happened in 107 years is that a better sample size?

I thought McDavid was the number one center for Edmonton? That would make Draisaitl number 2.

 

[Killer Orcas]

I thought McDavid was the number one center for Edmonton? That would make Draisaitl number 2.

A team can have two 1C's and some have none. Just because your a certain teams 1C doesn't make you a league 1C.

 

[Toby Flenderson]

Khabibulin was washed up when he came to Edmonton


This is an offer the Oilers need to take and run

Mika is a great center to replace Drai and Igor is Igor

Draisaitl is by far the better player now and going forward than Mika. Mika is a fine replacement for 2C behind McDavid, but NY is getting the best player by far in the deal.

Also, Igor is a very good goalie but even the best goalies can be inconsistent and are not on par in terms of value with guys like Draisaitl.

I do think it’s a trade the Oilers should make, but not one they are “taking a running”. They are gambling that Igor stays elite behind a dog poop defense.

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

I just feel like because there is a generational, perhaps all time player in McDavid also in Edmonton, it will always be impossible to fully appreciate how good Draisaitl really is. He's an all world talent. If McDavid wasn't around I think he would be the consensus #1 in the world.

As a Rangers fan, who just witnessed Shesterkin absolutely dominate in the playoffs, the Oilers hard pass on this.

 

[TFHockey]

This trade isn't even remotely fair to Edmonton.

 

[TFHockey]

I would be amenable to moving Zib if he waived, and taking back
Lavoie, Broberg + Holloway

Bern how does that work from a cap perspective?

 

[bleedblue94]

How often are top 3 goalies traded to look at a sample size?

not just traded, but traded in their prime...

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I thought McDavid was the number one center for Edmonton? That would make Draisaitl number 2.

Edmonton having a the #1 center league wide and a #3-#5 centre league wide doesn't make Draisaitl a 2nd line center.

 

[cowboy82nd]

I just feel like because there is a generational, perhaps all time player in McDavid also in Edmonton, it will always be impossible to fully appreciate how good Draisaitl really is. He's an all world talent. If McDavid wasn't around I think he would be the consensus #1 in the world.

As a Rangers fan, who just witnessed Shesterkin absolutely dominate in the playoffs, the Oilers hard pass on this.

Consensus??? No way. And I don't think he would be the number one in a lot of people's minds if McDavid wasn't there and he had to play against the number one centers on other teams. Good talent but I think you are over valuing him.

 

[TheNumber4]

Rags have nothing the Oilers would trade Drai for. Besides Drai is extending, he wants to stay winning.

 

[Fourier]

That's a bit of a logical fallacy saying that because there is no data to support the claim that it is automatically false. There have been big trades but yes, I can't think of any one for one super star forward for super star goalie trades, both 1 year from UFA. Are you a Texas Sharpshooter?

You can look at similar caliber trades that don't have the exact formula in the OP.

Tkachuk <--> Huberdeau, Weegar, Cole Schwindt + 1st
Marty St Louis + 2nd <--> Ryan Callahan + 1st + 1st + 7th
Roenick <--> Zhamnov + Craig Mills + 1st
Paul Coffey, Keith Primeau + 1st <--> Shanahan, Brian Glenn
Mark Messier <--> Bernie Nicholls, Louie DeBrusk, Steven Rice
Bernie Nicholls <--> Tony Granato, Tomas Sandstrom
Ron Francis, Ulf Samuelsson, Grant Jennings <--> John Cullen, Zarley Zalapski, Jeff Parker
Artemi Panarin, Tyler Motte + 6th <--> Brandon Saad, Anton Forsberg + 5th
Joe Thornton <--> Wayne Primeau, Brad Stuart, Marco Sturm
Jarome Iginla + Corey Millen <--> Joe Nieuwendyk (Iginla was still in juniors but was coming off a 136 season)
Alexei Yashin <--> Jason Spezza, Zdeno Chara, Bill Muckalt
Ryan McDonagh + JT Miller <--> Vlad Namenstnikov, Brett Howden, Libor Hajek + 1st + 2nd
Jeff Carter <--> Voracek + 1st + 3rd
Jean Ratelle, Brad Park, Joe Zanussi <--> Phil Esposito, Carol Vadnais

Trades with big goalies
Ryan Miller + Ott <--> Halak, Chris Stewart, William Carrier + 1st + 3rd
Roberto Luongo, Lukas Krajicke, + 6th <--> Todd Bertuzzi, Bryan Allen, Alex Auld
Curtis Joseph + Mike Grier <--> 1st + 1st
Ed Belfour <--> Ulf Dahlen, Michael Sykora, Chris Terrari, 1st
Patrick Roy, Mike Keane <--> Andrei Kovalenko, Martin Rucinsky, Jocelyn Thibault
Grant Fuhr <--> Dave Andreychuk, Daren Puppa, 1st
Nikolai Khabibulin, Stan Neckar <--> Mike Johnson, Paul Mara, Ruslan Zaynullin + 2nd

You can make an argument of which ones are closest to these two players. Based off of these many comparable examples that involve players of comparable caliber to Draisaitl and taking the side of forwards being more valuable, you might argue that NYR would add a bit more.

^This for example is a reasonable counter offer.

I don't see any player close to the level of Draisaitl going back in any of the goalie trades. The bottom line is that it is far more likely that the Oilers re-sign Draisaitl than not and certainly far more likely that he would re-sign with the Oilers than it is Shesterkin re-signing with the Oilers as a UFA. Literally, the only way this trade would happen is if Draisaitl makes it clear he will not re-sign.

 

[bernmeister]

Bern how does that work from a cap perspective?

today per CF Oil have 10m + in cap space

Deduct Drai 8.5 [so add to cap] = almost 19m cap available
deduct elc Lav.
deduct having to pay Broberg increase entering rfa
ditto Holloway

you are adding Shesty, so depending on offers you can flip Skinner and presum recover a chunk of his 2.6, maybe all of it, less cost of an alternate backup
Soup remains a prob but w/1 less year term, maybe possible to jettison him as well.

That's the deductions
What are you adding
Shesty is only 5.6+ this yr.
yes you have to give top $ to keep him, but that doesn't impact payroll til next season

Add Zib at 8.5

so 5.6 + 8.5 = a hair over 14 vs the almost 19 you have on hand = 5 reserve
That also does not, if I am not mistaken, include the 4-whatever m cap is going up vs the board
So total on hand reserve for everything else is ballpark 9m, not counting possible cap recovery on Skinner vs a cheaper backup. [Not saying you elect to go there, just satisfying your ask for the #s.

I trust this ^ is ballpark enuf to handle all reserves


As for Rs
NY adds 8.5 next yr and expects to pay a huge max-ish contract following season
we have 1 elc and 2 elc->rfa that have to get paid
So what is that around 14, 14.5m?

Offset that w/deduct Zib 8.5 and Shesty 5.6 = 14.1
It works out ballpark

And we should be moving Trouba at 6.5 for 2 picks for cap relief

so conclusion,
both clubs can do it

both have to create cap following season
Rs will deal bread by then
and you can advise who Oil jettison after next season to create room

 

[Washed Up 29YearOld]

lol a top 3 player for a goalie when there’s vastly more economical ways to get one. If I’m Oilers management I laugh and block Chris Drury’s number. Shesterkin is a very good goalie but he’s not Hasek ( who himself returned much less than that)

 

[TFHockey]

today per CF Oil have 10m + in cap space

Deduct Drai 8.5 [so add to cap] = almost 19m cap available
deduct elc Lav.
deduct having to pay Broberg increase entering rfa
ditto Holloway

you are adding Shesty, so depending on offers you can flip Skinner and presum recover a chunk of his 2.6, maybe all of it, less cost of an alternate backup
Soup remains a prob but w/1 less year term, maybe possible to jettison him as well.

That's the deductions
What are you adding
Shesty is only 5.6+ this yr.
yes you have to give top $ to keep him, but that doesn't impact payroll til next season

Add Zib at 8.5

so 5.6 + 8.5 = a hair over 14 vs the almost 19 you have on hand = 5 reserve
That also does not, if I am not mistaken, include the 4-whatever m cap is going up vs the board
So total on hand reserve for everything else is ballpark 9m, not counting possible cap recovery on Skinner vs a cheaper backup. [Not saying you elect to go there, just satisfying your ask for the #s.

I trust this ^ is ballpark enuf to handle all reserves


As for Rs
NY adds 8.5 next yr and expects to pay a huge max-ish contract following season
we have 1 elc and 2 elc->rfa that have to get paid
So what is that around 14, 14.5m?

Offset that w/deduct Zib 8.5 and Shesty 5.6 = 14.1
It works out ballpark

And we should be moving Trouba at 6.5 for 2 picks for cap relief

so conclusion,
both clubs can do it

both have to create cap following season
Rs will deal bread by then
and you can advise who Oil jettison after next season to create room

I cannot see how anyone could view a trade with Draisaitl for Shesterkin as a rational ask. I see how you view the cap working. I did ask about that. I hadn't realized you were still including Drai for Shesty.

The only way Draisaitl's value could go down is if he demanded a trade from the Oilers and would ONLY go to the Rangers. The fact is he wants to sign long term with Edmonton, so that isn't even a pipedream for NYR fans.