Oilers hype: Is HF buying in on a 2024 run?

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

So let me preface this by saying I am totally indifferent to Edmonton and in fact, if Florida can't win the Cup, would love to see McDavid lift it because he's insane. But I'm seeing them as a universal top 3 Cup pick (hell the Athletic has them as the highest odds to win) and I'm just not seeing it? This is a team that has not won a 3rd round game with McDrai and added Connor Brown, who is solid but I don't think anyone is calling him a superstar. Meanwhile you have Vegas running it back with essentially the same team, Dallas who was very close added Duchene for pennies on the dollar, and Colorado who are a legit team if healthy. I would have those 3 teams' Cup odds ahead of the Oilers in the west and would probably still put Carolina, Tampa, NJD over them in the East.

I make this thread only because I see all the buzz about this being the year and I'm just wondering if I've missed anything notable. Will be funny to bump this in June after they win the Cup in 18 games I'm sure.

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[KapG]

I mean draisaitl and mcdavid might drag them to the finals but I don’t think their team as a whole is good enough

 

[Sticksandsun]

It's just fake hype. Publications putting Canadian teams high gets people to buy subscriptions or views or social media engagement. Edmonton is not winning anything with Skinner/Campbell. Edmonton has not shown any ability to get over the hump. It's just like the Leafs, they'll be ranked in top 5 Cup odds every year the next decade even though we all know the Coyotes probably have better odds at winning a Cup than that core.

Difference between Leafs and Oilers is Leafs have probably the best team in the league and just choke year after year, Oilers have McJesus and Drai but honestly the team around them is just bad. They can only do so much. McDavid is turning 27 this year. At 27 Gretzky had won 3 Cups and was traded to LA that off-season. It's criminal he hasn't even won a game past the 2nd round yet. Huge waste.

 

[Chips]

With the advance stats, one of the flaws in his model (and I actually do read his stuff and like it overall. It’s never going to be perfect but it can be a lot better than the “eye test” of us fans who don’t watch every game in the league) is it’s probably heavily boosted by McDrai, but we’ve seen how depth is important.


McDrai going supernova couldn’t lift the Oilers over the Avs who were even having goalie issues. The Oilers were great again last year and closer, but then the Knights certainly weren’t as good as the juggernaut Avs on paper, though they were really deep without the tons of high end talent.



I do think the Oilers are a top contender generally and they’re impvong their depth. But to go on consistent deep runs they’ll probably need to improve it further and have good health, and find some consistency with some of their guys like Nurse who is good but seems prone to huge brain farts.



In the context of a league with huge parity, they are a top contender and 7 games is 7 games, so they’d really only need to put together a small sample against any great team they meet.. but that goes both ways (a huge part of the parity bit, good fortune)


So idk, they can absolutely win a cup this year even if they squeak in only 8th seed somehow with McDrai, but I’d like to see them string together a full season before I’d see them approaching the very tip top contender status.


A couple years ago when the hired Woodcroft and went on a late season run people were all “ahhh yeah they got their coach of the future, top team now”

Then last year they basically had the same season trajectory. Very uneven first half with some obvious flaws, get hot late, knocked out part way into the playoffs after meeting a deep team. The depth is improved though and a smart move there may be seen again.


I’d love to see them become that consistent top team for entertaining sake as watching them can be a mixed bag but it’s not crazy to think they can win a cup this year regardless.

 

[deleted user]

Their two superstars make it possible to go pretty far. I think the defence is over hyped. That goaltending isn't inspiring either. Could they win it all? Sure. But I think there's much better teams in the league this upcoming season.

 

[daver]

If they cannot consistently separate McDrai at ES to create offensive depth, then why would this year being any different than the past?

 

[Vikingstad]

For everyone saying goaltending isn't good enough, who called Adin Hill backstopping the cup winning team last year? My guess is nobody. Goalies are a crapshoot.

Depth is a bigger issue which they have slowly improved, yet to see how it fairs though.

 

[ijuka]

It's just fake hype. Publications putting Canadian teams high gets people to buy subscriptions or views or social media engagement.

Pinnacle has Edmonton Oilers as the favorite to win the Stanley Cup, and by a significant margin. It looks like:
Top tier: Oilers
Second tier: Avalanche, Hurricanes, Leafs
Third tier: Devils, Golden Knights, Stars, Bruins
Rest

Publications might care about this stuff, but sportsbooks such as Pinnacle care about making money, so they're only motivated by making as strong predictions as possible.

 

[The90]

For everyone saying goaltending isn't good enough, who called Adin Hill backstopping the cup winning team last year? My guess is nobody. Goalies are a crapshoot.

Depth is a bigger issue which they have slowly improved, yet to see how it fairs though.

Adin Hill also had Vegas’ depth and defence playing in front of him. With Pietrangelo and Theodore.

Campbell and Skinner have Nurse as a #1 D and a not so tight defensive system.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

James Wyshnewski selected the Oilers to winning the cup this season.

 

[HolyGhost]

So let me preface this by saying I am totally indifferent to Edmonton and in fact, if Florida can't win the Cup, would love to see McDavid lift it because he's insane. But I'm seeing them as a universal top 3 Cup pick (hell the Athletic has them as the highest odds to win) and I'm just not seeing it? This is a team that has not won a 3rd round game with McDrai and added Connor Brown, who is solid but I don't think anyone is calling him a superstar. Meanwhile you have Vegas running it back with essentially the same team, Dallas who was very close added Duchene for pennies on the dollar, and Colorado who are a legit team if healthy. I would have those 3 teams' Cup odds ahead of the Oilers in the west and would probably still put Carolina, Tampa, NJD over them in the East.

I make this thread only because I see all the buzz about this being the year and I'm just wondering if I've missed anything notable. Will be funny to bump this in June after they win the Cup in 18 games I'm sure.

Their D and G suck and I do mean SUCK. Looking at their division. They will be fighting for a wildcard position. They may have the two best players on the planet--but it is their D and G that will let them down

 

[Hamilton Bulldogs]

Vegas will be a tough out just like they were last year and the kings have gotten better.

I still like the oilers over both but I also liked them last year and that didn't work out all that well

 

[Jmo89]

McDavid will eventually get them there.

 

[MavisGoldberg]

They are a top cup contender.

 

[McDoused]

Never change HF.

 

[ricky0034]

not as favorites no

but any team with McDavid/Draisaitl always does have a shot, goaltending is unpredictable and even the Oilers goaltending is capable of getting hot enough for a run to win if they're both healthy and performing

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Canadian media always hypes the Canadian teams. We’ve seen it with both the Leafs and Oilers recently. Both are good teams imo but there’s a number of more complete teams I’d rank above them starting with the last two Cup champs Vegas and Colorado in the West plus Dallas in the West and then Carolina in the East. Then they’re in the mix with NJ, Tampa, and NYR.
While you can win with average to below average goaltending you usually need an elite defensive group to do that like Vegas last year. Neither team has close to that.
Having said all that, Edmonton is probably the most fun team in the league to watch with two superstar players.

 

[GreeningOil]

Their D and G suck and I do mean SUCK. Looking at their division. They will be fighting for a wildcard position. They may have the two best players on the planet--but it is their D and G that will let them down

What are you talking about? Their D is decent and goaltending isn’t the worst. Skinner certainly had a bad playoffs, but he was a runner up for the Calder trophy… meaning his first season.

Give the tired and cringy narrative a break

 

[Skolman]

Their D and G suck and I do mean SUCK. Looking at their division. They will be fighting for a wildcard position. They may have the two best players on the planet--but it is their D and G that will let them down

Looking at their division?

Who's finishing ahead of them?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I don't see why they couldn't win the cup, but I do think it might take McDavid and Draisaitl consciously deciding to sacrifice offense to play a better 2 way game.

 

[The Management]

There was a lot of hype behind them last year as well, especially after the TDL. I remember being reassured by at least one Oilers fans that they were confident in Stuart Skinner.

There are certain fans on this forum that make me want to root against them, but my nephew is a big Oilers fan so it'd be cool to see him get to celebrate something I haven't been able to.

I will say it's remarkable that they have what many consider the consensus two best players in the world, but haven't really threatened to convert on all that potential. They were my favorites coming out of the West last year, and I'd say the same even this year, but there's something missing in the secret sauce if you can't make push through to the finals with the talent they have.

 

[VivaLasVegas]

Looking at their division?

Who's finishing ahead of them?

IMHO, it is all about staying healthy. In their division, the Knights and Kraken are going to be tough if they stay healthy. The Oilers will be tough if they stay healthy. Nobody know how those three will shake out. Kings are also a dark horse in the division if they can up their goaltending.

 

[DJJones]

Ekholm is exactly what they needed but feels like everyone is just assuming they will have no offensive regression.

Whole top 6 getting 90 points and a record breaking powerplay seems like it's already written in pen.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

They've put most of the major pieces in place and have the assets to shore things up even more at the deadline.

Imagine what they could do if they added Hellebuyck.

 

[HockeyVirus]

You could apply most of your points to a certain team in the East that you are very familiar with. Lol.

No you couldn't. Leafs fail to score more than 2 goals a game in the playoffs routinely. They didn't lose due to their goaltending last year like the Oilers.