Official 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Redpath]

Really hoping that the Michkov effect sees us dipping more into Russia, especially the later rounds. Now is the time to find gems when teams aren't able to scout as closely.

Andrei Krutov, Ilya Pautov, and Timur Kol all stick out when looking at DY numbers.

 

[MrGuyPerson]

Alright I partially said this in the rumor thread, but I am going to say it fully here.

If the flyers are targeting Catton for the 12th pick, as many here seem to want, I think they would be better served trading the 12th pick to Anaheim as part of a package for Zegras. Zegras and Catton are very similar players. The difference is one is proven in the NHL with multiple 60+ point seasons, while the other likely has the same time horizion of most draft picks in regards to time to legit NHL impact which is 2+ years. The biggest thing is though Zegras is exactly what you could hope Catton will be, so taking the proven model that can make an impact immediately just makes so much more sense.

I will specify that this is only really makes sense if the Flyers are indeed targeting Catton. Helenius and Iginla have 2 way games and grit that make them potentially valuable in a way that Zegras is not, so if the Flyers front office values those traits higher in their roster construction I can understand why they would not make that trade. If they are actually leaning towards Catton though, they might as well get the version that impacts the team immediately.

 

[Jettany]

Any way Farabee and the Florida #1 gets you Zegras?

 

[MrGuyPerson]

Any way Farabee and the Florida #1 gets you Zegras?

Doubtful, but 12th and Farabee probably

 

[Jettany]

Doubtful, but 12th and Farabee probably

To me that’s too much.

 

[MrGuyPerson]

To me that’s too much.

I agree 12th + a depth player feels pretty fair though. Besides if the Flyers actually want Catton, you might as well make this trade for the NHL proven Version of him instead

 

[JojoTheWhale]

If the flyers are targeting Catton for the 12th pick, as many here seem to want, I think they would be better served trading the 12th pick to Anaheim as part of a package for Zegras. Zegras and Catton are very similar players. The difference is one is proven in the NHL with multiple 60+ point seasons, while the other likely has the same time horizion of most draft picks in regards to time to legit NHL impact which is 2+ years. The biggest thing is though Zegras is exactly what you could hope Catton will be, so taking the proven model that can make an impact immediately just makes so much more sense.

I am almost always the one talking about how individual prospects in general are overrated, but to me this is exactly what you can’t do if you want to be successful long term in a hard cap league. You don’t make A/B choices like this in a vacuum. One of those players is heading into his D+6.

In the broad spectrum of outcomes, you get a better career from Zegras the majority of the time. But not all of that minority is particularly close. Making the Catton pick is an attempt to buy that specific star equity. And it’s not just Catton outcomes that you’re getting. You’re buying 3 years of an ELC, then some RFA control, and the players/assets the differences in cap hit buys you in the next X years.

 

[Jettany]

I am almost always the one talking about how individual prospects in general are overrated, but to me this is exactly what you can’t do if you want to be successful long term in a hard cap league. You don’t make A/B choices like this in a vacuum. One of those players is heading into his D+6.

In the broad spectrum of outcomes, you get a better career from Zegras the majority of the time. But not all of that minority is particularly close. Making the Catton pick is an attempt to buy that specific star equity. And it’s not just Catton outcomes that you’re getting. You’re buying 3 years of an ELC, then some RFA control, and the players/assets the differences in cap hit buys you in the next X years.

Catton…Zegras for Florida pick and Farabee would be a good days work. If possible.

 

[FLYguy3911]

My guess is Zegras goes relatively cheap.

The Flyers already traded a premium asset to Anaheim so if they really wanted him, the move probably already would have happened in January.

 

[Larry44]

I have a spreadsheet with the average rankings from 12 "Experts." They are:

Smaht

McKeens

THN

EP

Ferrari

THW Barrachinni

Horn

Pronman

Wheeler

Button

McKenzie

Peters

Here are the top 97:

Rank	First	Last	Pos	Team	League	Ht	Wt
1	Macklin	Celebrini	C	Boston U	Heast	6	185
2	Ivan	Demidov	RW	SKA St Pete	MHL	5'11	158
3	Artyom	Levshunov	RHD	Michigan State	B1G	6'2	198
4	Cayden	Lindstrom	C	Medicine Hat	WHL	6'5	190
5	Zeev	Buium	LHD	USNDTP	USHL	6	183
6	Sam	Dickenson	LHD	London	OHL	6'3	194
7	Berkly	Catton	C	Spokane	WHL	5'11	163
8	Zayne	Parekh	RHD	Saginaw	OHL	6	183
9	Tij	Iginlia	C	Kelowna	WHL	6	186
10	Anton	Silayev	LHD	Torpedo Novogrod	KHL	6'7	200
11	Cole	Eiserman	LW	USNDTP	USHL	6	194
12	Konsta	Helenius	C	Jukirit	Fin Jr	5'11	168
13	Beckett	Sennecke	RW	Oshawa	OHL	6'1	187
14	Carter	Yakemchuck	RHD	Calgary	WHL	6'2	183
15	Michael	Brandseeg-Nygard	RW	Mora	SEL	6'1	194
16	Liam	Greentree	RW	Windsor	OHL	6'2	188
17	Adam	Jiricek	RHD	Plezn	Chech Jr	6'2	168
18	Michael	Hage	C	Chicago	USHL	6	161
19	Trevor	Connelly	C/LW	Tri City	USHL	6'1	185
20	Igor	Chernyshov	LW	Dynamo Moskow	MHL	6'2	192
21	Sacha	Boisvert	C	Muskegan	USHL	6'2	170
22	Jett	Luchanko	C	Guelph	OHL	5'11	185
23	Stian	Solberg	LHD	Valeranga	Norway	6'2	196
24	Emil	Hemming	RW	TPS	Fin Jr	6'2	196
25	Ryder	Ritchie	RW	Prince Albert	WHL	6	173
26	Eric J	Emery	RHD	USNDTP	USHL	6'3	181
27	Nikita	Artamonov	LW/RW	Torpedo Novogrod	KHL	5'11	180
28	Cole	Beaudoin	C	Barrie	OHL	6'2	201
29	Andrew	Basha	LW	Medicine Hat	WHL	5'11	185
30	Terik	Parascak	RW	Prince George	WHL	5'11	174
31	Alfons	Freij	LHD	Vaxjo	J20	6'1	192
32	Teddy	Stiga	LW	USNDTP	USHL	5'9	155
33	Marek	Vanacker	LW	Brantford	OHL	6'1	185
34	Lucas	Pettersson	C	Modo	J20	5'11	170
35	Leo	Sahlin Wallenius	LD	Vjaxo	Swed jr	5'11.5	176
36	Dominik	Badinka	RHD	Malmo	Swed Jr	6'3	183
37	Charlie	Elick	RHD	Brandon	WHL	6'3	191
38	Dean	Letourneau	C	St Andrews	CHS	6'6	210
39	Linus	Eriksson	C	Djurgardens	SEL	6	170
40	Yegor	Surin	C	Yarasloval	MHL	6'1	174
41	Cole	Hutson	LHD	USNDTP	USHL	5'10	157
42	Henry	Mews	RHD	Ottawa	OHL	6	183
43	Maxim	Masse	RW	Chicoutimi	QMJHL	6'1	180
44	Julius	Miettinen	C/W	Everett	WHL	6'3	209
45	Aron	Kiviharju	LHD	TPS	Fin Jr	5'10	157
46	Sam	O'Reilly	RW	London	OHL	6'1	186
47	Matvei	Gridin	RW	Muskegon	USHL	6'1	185
49	John	Mustard	FWD	Waterloo	USHL	6	180
50	Luke	Misa	C	Mississauga	OHL	5'10	165
51	Adam	Kleber	D	Lincoln	USHL	6'5	201
52	Adam	Jecho	RW	Taapara	Fin Jr	6'5	200
53	Tanner	Howe	C/LW	Regina	WHL	5'10	178
54	Matvei	Shuravin	LD	CSKA	Rus Jr	6'3	195
55	Harrison	Brunicke	RHD	Kamloops	WHL	6'2	184
56	Ben	Danford	RHD	Oshawa	OHL	6'1	194
58	Jesse	Pulkkinen	LHD	JYP	Fin Jr	6'6	203
59	Marcus	Gildof	G	Leksand	SEL	6'6	212
60	Justin	Poirier	RW	Baie-Comeau	QMJHL	5'7	185
61	Tomas	Galvas	LHD	Liberc	Czech	5'11	148
62	Anthony	Cristoforo	RHD	Windsor	OHL	5'11	180
63	Leon	Muggli	D	Zug	Sui NL	6	165
65	Will	Skahan	LHD	USNDTP	USHL	6'4	205
65	Topias	Hynninen	RW	Jukirit	Liiga	5'10	164
66	Miguel	Marques	RW	Lethbridge	WHL	5'10.5	173
67	Carter	George	G	Owen Sound	OHL	6'1	190
68	Kamil	Bednarik	C	USNDTP	USHL	6	186
69	Mikhail	Yegorov	G	Omaha	USHL	6'4.5	179
70	Spencer	Gill	D	Rimouski	QMJHL	6'4	185
71	Luca	Marrelli	D	Oshawa	OHL	6'1	185
72	Noel	Fransen	Farjestads	Farjestads	Swed J20	6	180
73	AJ	Spellacy	C	Windsor	OHL	6'3	190
74	Ryerson	Leenders	G	Mississauga	OHL	6'1	185
75	Brodie	Ziemer	RW	USNDTP	USHL	5'11	190
76	Daniil	Ustinkov	LHD	ZSC	Swiss Jr	6	198
77	Owen	Allard	C	SSM	WHL	6'1.75	199
78	Tarin	Smith	D	Everett	WHL	6'1	175
79	Lukas	Fischer	LHD	Sarnia	OHL	6'2	180
80	Jacob	Battaglia	LW	Kingston	OHL	6'1	196
81	Matvei	Korotky	C	SKA St Pete	VHL	6'1	198
82	Ilya	Nabokov	G	Magnitogorsk	MHL	6	179
83	Carson	Wetsch	R Fwd	Calgary	WHL	6'2	185
84	Veeti	Vaisanen	LHD	Kookoo	Fin Jr	6	174
85	Simon	Zether	C	Rogle	SEL	6'2	185
86	Raul	Boilard	C	Baie-Comeau	QMJHL	6'1	185
87	Jakub	Fibigr	D	Mississauga	OHL	6	170
88	Eriks	Matieko	LW	St John	QMJHL	6'4	201
89	Timur	Kol	LHD	Omsk Jr	VHL	6'3	198
90	Heikki	Rouhonen	C	Kieko Espoo	U20Elite	6'1	205
91	Melvin	Fernstrom	RW	Orebro	SHL	6'1	185
92	Herman	Traff	RW	HV71	J20	6'3	200
94	Jack	Berglund	LW	Farjestads	SHL	6'3	209
95	Clarke	Caswell	LW	Swift Current	WHL	5'11	176
96	Fyodor	Avramov	LW	Stupino	VHL	6'3	190
97	Colin	Ralph	D	Shattuck	USHS	6'4	227

I saw a report awhile ago that said he was high on Montreal's list and they were contemplating taking him at 5.

Thank you for your effort. This is great. I might prefer Sennecke to Helenius at this point. Flyers like risers and the kid can fly. We'll see on Friday!

 

[MrGuyPerson]

I am almost always the one talking about how individual prospects in general are overrated, but to me this is exactly what you can’t do if you want to be successful long term in a hard cap league. You don’t make A/B choices like this in a vacuum. One of those players is heading into his D+6.

In the broad spectrum of outcomes, you get a better career from Zegras the majority of the time. But not all of that minority is particularly close. Making the Catton pick is an attempt to buy that specific star equity. And it’s not just Catton outcomes that you’re getting. You’re buying 3 years of an ELC, then some RFA control, and the players/assets the differences in cap hit buys you in the next X years.

Well, I am going to disagree. The panthers and golden Knights likeky do too. The Panthers only drafted like 5 of the guys on their roster that has been to back-2-back cup finals, got a cup win in the most recent of the 2, and they almost definitely run it back for 3rd attempt next season. That doesn't quantify as success? The Knights best players were all aquired in trades or Free Agency. Mark Stone, Eichel, Pietrangelo, and now Hertl.

It doesn't matter how well you scout, there is an element of luck and guess work to drafting and development. You can never assume a pick will reach there ceiling. Does every Concensus talent become star? No. They flop all the time. Can I assume a guy who has scored 60+ multiple times in the NHL under the age of 25 is capable of doing it again? Yes. He has proven he can. Can I assume a kid who has never played an NHL game will be just as good? No. I can hope he might.

ELCs are cool, the salary cap is important to monitor, but adding a good young proven player to your core is cooler. A question mark vs a proven valuable asset. I can taken the proven valuable asset to the bank, but I will really value the ELC more if it turns out the answer to the question mark is not as good as the answer I wanted

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Well, I am going to disagree. The panthers and golden Knights likeky do too. The Panthers only drafted like 5 of the guys on their roster that has been to back-2-back cup finals, got a cup win in the most recent of the 2, and they almost definitely run it back for 3rd attempt next season. That doesn't quantify as success? The Knights best players were all aquired in trades or Free Agency. Mark Stone, Eichel, Pietrangelo, and now Hertl.

It doesn't matter how well you scout, there is an element of luck and guess work to drafting and development. You can never assume a pick will reach there ceiling. Does every Concensus talent become star? No. They flop all the time. Can I assume a guy who has scored 60+ multiple times in the NHL under the age of 25 is capable of doing it again? Yes. He has proven he can. Can I assume a kid who has never played an NHL game will be just as good? No. I can hope he might.

ELCs are cool, the salary cap is important to monitor, but adding good young proven players to your core cooler.

The Golden Knights were launched into the Finals and trying to contend immediately from that day forward. The Panthers traded what they thought were late 1sts when they were ready to contend and had the core already in place and in NHL prime age. How is either of those situations comparable to the June ‘24 Flyers trading away a known 12OA? How is Zegras remotely comparable to Mark Stone or Jack Eichel? If you’re trading for a Pettersson who hit RFA, of course you move 12.

Again, what I’m trying to tell you is that I am one of the last people you have to sell on the risk of prospects. Go look at any thread about prospects and you’re more likely than not to find me saying people are getting carried away. I’m unwilling to call anyone short of a Michkov level overwhelmingly likely to be an average NHL player on draft day. If I’m telling you I think you’re taking it too far, you’re not in left field. You’re outside of the stadium having a nice coffee.

And while we’re at it, no you cannot assume a 60 Point player can do it again. It’s much, much more likely. Very different thing.

 

[LegionOfGloom]

The Golden Knights were launched into the Finals and trying to contend immediately from that day forward. The Panthers traded what they thought were late 1sts when they were ready to contend and had the core already in place and in NHL prime age. How is either of those situations comparable to the June ‘24 Flyers trading away a known 12OA?

Again, what I’m trying to tell you is that I am one of the last people you have to sell on the risk of prospects. Go look at any thread about prospects and you’re more likely than not to find me saying people are getting carried away. I’m unwilling to call anyone short of a Michkov level overwhelmingly likely to be an average NHL player on draft day. If I’m telling you I think you’re taking it too far, you’re not in left field. You’re outside of the stadium having a nice coffee.

And while we’re at it, no you cannot assume a 60 Point player can do it again. It’s much, much more likely. Very different thing.

It's the same argument people make about teams like the Lightening. They say guys like Sergachev were acquired via trade. Sure, but they traded a former top pick of their to get him. How did the Panthers get Tkachuk? By trading former #3 overall Huberdeau. Even if you want the Flyers to trade their way into contention, you still need a base of assets that we don't have to do that.

 

[Appleyard]

Well, I am going to disagree. The panthers and golden Knights likeky do too. The Panthers only drafted like 5 of the guys on their roster that has been to back-2-back cup finals, got a cup win in the most recent of the 2, and they almost definitely run it back for 3rd attempt next season. That doesn't quantify as success? The Knights best players were all aquired in trades or Free Agency. Mark Stone, Eichel, Pietrangelo, and now Hertl.

It doesn't matter how well you scout, there is an element of luck and guess work to drafting and development. You can never assume a pick will reach there ceiling. Does every Concensus talent become star? No. They flop all the time. Can I assume a guy who has scored 60+ multiple times in the NHL under the age of 25 is capable of doing it again? Yes. He has proven he can. Can I assume a kid who has never played an NHL game will be just as good? No. I can hope he might.

ELCs are cool, the salary cap is important to monitor, but adding a good young proven player to your core is cooler. A question mark vs a proven valuable asset. I can taken the proven valuable asset to the bank, but I will really value the ELC more if it turns out the answer to the question mark is not as good as the answer I wanted

However, when you do look at the Panthers... their success was in fact built around picking very, very highly in the draft repeatedly over a short window... like virtually every cup-winner in the last ~17 years has done sans Vegas.

2011 3rd overall: Huberdeau - moved in package for Tkachuk
2013 2nd overall: Barkov
2014 1st overall: Ekblad

Without picking so highly in a short time period? They never win.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Florida and Vegas are also destination cities - no state tax, nice weather, etc.

 

[BillDineen]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806385280934408674

 

[ponder719]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806387039006347647

Who are the Sharks jumping us for?

 

[FLYguy3911]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806387039006347647

Who are the Sharks jumping us for?

Re-unite Celebrini and Eiserman.

 

[ponder719]

Re-unite Celebrini and Eiserman.

Thanks, I hate it. I know the fit's not perfect, but I really would like Eiserman.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Two trades to move up into the mid-1st before the picks were on the clock is incredibly weird.

 

[ponder719]

OK, so now Danny needs to trade up to 10, and then the Sharks trade up to 9, then we trade up to 8, then...

 

[Prongo]

12 and 32 get you where? 7th/8th at best?

 

[Jettany]

12 and 32 get you where? 7th/8th at best?

Probably tough to judge. I would guess it’s who the team you are trading with feels about who is available. 6-9. Maybe.

 

[LegionOfGloom]

That NRD guy on Twitter thinks the Sharks jumped us to get Eiserman. I would've been fine with Eiserman but frankly a winger would need to be far and away the best player left at our spot for me to take him.

 

[ponder719]

Say what you will about Charlie O, but I think he's probably not wrong to suggest SJ is more likely in the market for defense here, since they got Smith last year and Celebrini on the way, and their blue line is only that color due to the 2000 Flushes they have working overtime.