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Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season VI: It's no longer the off-season, but the thread isn't done yet

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kb said:
Tapia and Zimmer are both out of options, so both will be on the 28 man for the first month I would assume.
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Adding to this once the rosters go back to 26 the pitcher maximum is 13. Which will leave us with 13 position players. We currently have 15 pitchers and 13 position players. So would drop 2 pitchers. The bench likely won't be impacted to go back to 28 unless they add someone else before they to go to a 5 man bench.

If Tapia and Zimmer are both here for the entire month it likely stays that way until something else changes
 
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Canada4Gold said:
Adding to this once the rosters go back to 26 the pitcher maximum is 13. Which will leave us with 13 position players. We currently have 15 pitchers and 13 position players. So would drop 2 pitchers. The bench likely won't be impacted to go back to 28 unless they add someone else before they to go to a 5 man bench.

If Tapia and Zimmer are both here for the entire month it likely stays that way until something else changes
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Honestly, Tapia was acquired to get us out of Grichuk's contract. He and Zimmer are both capable 4th OF who with a little bit of work on their approach at the plate could provide some value.

Collins is a similar situation, but without any positional flexibility and an option.
 
Management talked about being able to do different things.

Now, we have multiple speedsters so we can pinch run late. Katoh has essentially taken Lopez's job for now, giving us 3 plus defenders available.

Essentially, we moved Grichuk for Tapia (changing the profile), sent Lopez down for more reps giving Katoh a spot, and traded McGuire which opened a spot for Zimmer.

Assuming Kirk is primary DH, we have excellent D and other LH spots on the bench. The other side of this is that Zimmer is a few minor tweaks from being a guy who could legitimately deserve significant playing time (and even possibly not being an embarassment in the DH spot).
 
One note about the Zimmer trade is that it might make it more likely that one of our outfielders is DHing more often (as opposed to Kirk DHing 3 times a week).
 
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Canada4Gold said:
Adding to this once the rosters go back to 26 the pitcher maximum is 13. Which will leave us with 13 position players. We currently have 15 pitchers and 13 position players. So would drop 2 pitchers. The bench likely won't be impacted to go back to 28 unless they add someone else before they to go to a 5 man bench.

If Tapia and Zimmer are both here for the entire month it likely stays that way until something else changes
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Yeah, I can see that too now.
 
Bjindaho said:
One note about the Zimmer trade is that it might make it more likely that one of our outfielders is DHing more often (as opposed to Kirk DHing 3 times a week).
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I thought about that one, too. I think Kirk getting 2/5 behind the plate, 2/5 at DH, and 1 day off is ideal. That leaves the DH spot open 3/5, and having 2 infielders and 2 outfielders on the bench gives them a ton of flexibility.

I've seen a couple people complaining about the Zimmer trade because he sounds exactly like Derek Fisher. And that's fair to some extent, but the defense is such a massive difference. If Fisher had played the kind of OF defense that Zimmer does, we wouldn't have been so happy to see him go.
 
Discoverer said:
I thought about that one, too. I think Kirk getting 2/5 behind the plate, 2/5 at DH, and 1 day off is ideal. That leaves the DH spot open 3/5, and having 2 infielders and 2 outfielders on the bench gives them a ton of flexibility.

I've seen a couple people complaining about the Zimmer trade because he sounds exactly like Derek Fisher. And that's fair to some extent, but the defense is such a massive difference. If Fisher had played the kind of OF defense that Zimmer does, we wouldn't have been so happy to see him go.
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Fisher actually put up a 117 wRC+, but was just so bad on D
 
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The Nemesis said:

It's mathematically rational, but analytically difficult to overcome. That's the voodoo. We know why it's hard to pin down anything about relievers, but that doesn't help in figuring out ways to overcome those limitations with repeatably successful results.



Those issues are what makes them misfit toys. If they weren't they'd be starters. But the have some hiccup or hitch in their skills. Maybe they lack durability. Or stamina. Or a pitch (or two). Or command. or have an arsenal that is quirky at first but can't survive a second trip through the lineup. Guys that slot into relief roles and never come out even though they could be starters are more often the exception rather than the rule (because most teams would obviously prefer a valuable asset be in the more valuable role of starting vs coming out of the pen for like 1/2 or less the # of innings.



Yes, but with starters this is a bad thing because if a guy has, say, 100 innings of value before he gets figured out or breaks down then as a starter that's less than a year whereas a decent pen arm can carve out at least a couple of seasons before his clock strikes midnight. So that's how the bullpen market works: There are too many jobs out there in bullpens around baseball to fill them with guys who are talented and stable, so you make due with guys who are performing and you worry about whether or not it will last after the fact. So accepting that has to be built into the approach you take to pen management. You have to live with the fact that you're choosing guys operating on a clock you can't see with a deadline you can't reliably predict. And that's the voodoo.



Fair enough. though the fact that he couldn't stay healthy is part of the voodoo as well. Because you can't predict with consistency whether or not a guy with recurrent health issues will get over them to become a dependable player or if he'll be the next Dustin McGowan.



Will you though?

Last year's top 10 reliever FA contracts (by total value):

1) Hendriks (White Sox) - all-star year. worth it.
2) Blake Treinen (Dodgers) -Great year. worth it.
3) Trevor May (Mets) - Solid year by results, peripherals suggest possible issues
4) Pedro Baez (Astros) - Got hurt. pitched <5 innings in MLB, plus <10 more in AAA.
5) Trevor Rosenthal (A's) - didn't pitch at all last season
7) Brad Hand (Nationals) - We saw how this worked. He was a gas can. And he wasn't even that good before the deal from the Nats.
8) Ken Giles (Mariners) - didn't pitch at all last season
9) Archie Bradley (Phillies) - was passable, but not great.
10) Kirby Yates (Blue Jays) - didn't pitch at all last season.

The same pattern happened in 2020 as well. and if I keep going I imagine it's much the same working back through the years. Yeah there are some signings that work out, but on balance you appear as likely or more likely to come to regret a big reliever signing than you are to love the results.

Obviously you're going to have to pay for the biggest and best guys. The problem is that there's little to stop those relievers from being nearly as volatile as the lesser ones. So you might be better off betting on a bunch of tier 2 or 3 guys giving you one or two breakouts than you are spending the money on one massive marquee talent who screws you over if he gets hurt or loses his mojo.
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I think this is what it comes down to, and where we fundamentally disagree. I think that we need to spend the money for a top of the line, elite guy, and that guy will almost certainly produce. Note that the guys after Hendricsk/Treinen are more of a tier that you're talking about, $4-7m/year guys with a mixed history and/or injury flags, and those guys do tend to bust very often.

Our management group has pursued the strategy you've advocated - sign a bevvy of $4-7m/year bp guys instead of going for the real marquee closers like Hendricks or Iglesias this year. So far, pretty much all of those tier 2-3 guys have been busts for us, and I have a feeling it'll cost us this year like it cost us last year. I really hope Yimi comes through, but I'm not optimistic.

It would have been really great to have a legit closer like Iglesias so that Romano could be used as an Andrew Miller-like fireman, because right now I have no idea who we're using in those dire situations (unless it's Romano, in which case I don't know who closes. Yimi?).
 


Extra Innings Presented By TD: A New Beginning

April 7, 2022

Hope springs eternal in the debut of Extra Innings presented by TD. This Spring Training, we saw some familiar faces and added to our Blue Jays family. Bring on the 2022 season!
 
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Wow I like this Zimmer pick up. This is what you call low risk and medium return type of move. 1.1 FWAR in 99 games. Very good CF defender. For context Gurriel Jr. had a 1.5 fwar in 141 games and it only cost us Castro who they probably didn't even trust to play. I like Zimmer a bit more then Tapia as well. They are both going to drive us nuts but as #9 hitters on days where Springer or Teo DH you don't lose much.
 
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I guess we will hear later today if zimmer is on the 28 man? He doesnt have any options left so doubt he gets sent down.
 
BertCorbeau said:
www.espn.com

Judge offered $230M deal by Yankees, GM says

Aaron Judge and the Yankees did not reach agreement on a contract extension ahead of the slugger's self-imposed deadline of Opening Day, despite the team offering a $230 million deal.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

8 year, $230 million dollar deal offered to Judge and he turned it down.

Wowzers.
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He also turned down 7 years, 213.5M.

Honestly, if he hits FA next year, he's going to make 35M at least (and a lot more if he has another Judge season).

Also keep in mind, that the offers would keep the risk of arbitration in place (because the Yankees offers don't include this year) and that Judge and the Yankees are 5M apart (most in baseball).
 
Bjindaho said:
He also turned down 7 years, 213.5M.

Honestly, if he hits FA next year, he's going to make 35M at least (and a lot more if he has another Judge season).

Also keep in mind, that the offers would keep the risk of arbitration in place (because the Yankees offers don't include this year) and that Judge and the Yankees are 5M apart (most in baseball).
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Could you imagine Judge agreeing to a 30.5 contract and then having the Yankees take him to arbitration to argue that he isn't worth 22M?
 
Bjindaho said:
He also turned down 7 years, 213.5M.

Honestly, if he hits FA next year, he's going to make 35M at least (and a lot more if he has another Judge season).

Also keep in mind, that the offers would keep the risk of arbitration in place (because the Yankees offers don't include this year) and that Judge and the Yankees are 5M apart (most in baseball).
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$35 million for how many years? Because he's going to be 31 when he hits free agency and he doesn't exactly have the best injury history.
 
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Discoverer said:
$35 million for how many years? Because he's going to be 31 when he hits free agency and he doesn't exactly have the best injury history.
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35 for 7 years would put his deal right around Seagar's. Gallo is the 2nd best OF this offseason and the drop off is dramatic from them.

If NYY was actually interested in signing Judge, they would have offered his 22M he wants plus the 7 years at 30.5M per.
 
Bjindaho said:
35 for 7 years would put his deal right around Seagar's. Gallo is the 2nd best OF this offseason and the drop off is dramatic from them.

If NYY was actually interested in signing Judge, they would have offered his 22M he wants plus the 7 years at 30.5M per.
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It's a higher annual value than Seager's but it also trims off the three most valuable years. I don't know... I think that much money for that long will end up looking horrible for the team.
 
Discoverer said:
It's a higher annual value than Seager's but it also trims off the three most valuable years. I don't know... I think that much money for that long will end up looking horrible for the team.
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Seagar was competing against Correa (who is better than him), Semien (who is better, but older), Baez (who is worse, but better defensively) and Story (better D, but significant offensive questions).

His market was different than Correa and Semien, but I consider him the third best SS.

Judge is the best OF by a fair margin (coming off a 5.5fWAR season) where he was 1.6fWAR better than 2nd.
 
Tapia leadoff. Here it comes. I can feel it.

Just f***ing stack the order: Springer leadoff, and then whichever order of Vlad, Teo and Bo you like.
 
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