Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season V: Baseball's back and so are blockbusters (Jays send 4 prospects to A's for 3B Matt Chapman)

[weems]

Ryu starting

 

[Morgs]

View attachment 521582

Ryu starting

Already arguably the best lineup in the league, and they're missing their Silver Slugger RF

 

[Deebo]

 

[Ale Brew]

Conforto is complicated somewhat by the draft pick... with Semien, he cost nothing and had the chance of bringing back a comp pick. With Conforto, he costs a pick and has no chance of bringing one back.

But still... adding a guy like that, who had a .344 OBP in his worst season since becoming a full-time player, as a LH bat to the bottom half of the lineup who be such a huge improvement to this team. Suddenly you would have 4 starting OF, 5 starting IF, and 2 starting C, and you could just shuffle guys around as needed based on matchups, days off, and injuries.

I don't expect anything more in the next couple of weeks, but one more addition like Conforto would be amazing.

Not sure whether to take these Conforto reports seriously or not. There are also multiple reports that he’s not vaccinated. You’d have to assume it’s either or, as the Jays aren’t going to bring in someone who can’t get in the country.

Or perhaps they are waiting to see if vaccination laws change. I doubt Conforto will remain available long enough to wait that out though.

 

[Discoverer]

Not sure whether to take these Conforto reports seriously or not. There are also multiple reports that he’s not vaccinated. You’d have to assume it’s either or, as the Jays aren’t going to bring in someone who can’t get in the country.

Or perhaps they are waiting to see if vaccination laws change. I doubt Conforto will remain available long enough to wait that out though.

Yeah, I keep forgetting about that part. If he's not willing to get vaccinated, he's obviously not an option.

 

[phillipmike]

Conforto is complicated somewhat by the draft pick... with Semien, he cost nothing and had the chance of bringing back a comp pick. With Conforto, he costs a pick and has no chance of bringing one back.

But still... adding a guy like that, who had a .344 OBP in his worst season since becoming a full-time player, as a LH bat to the bottom half of the lineup who be such a huge improvement to this team. Suddenly you would have 4 starting OF, 5 starting IF, and 2 starting C, and you could just shuffle guys around as needed based on matchups, days off, and injuries.

I don't expect anything more in the next couple of weeks, but one more addition like Conforto would be amazing.

It would be a nice get especially on a 1 year deal. I’m willing to sacrifice the picks and IFA money because Conforto’s bat would be a perfect fit at minimal cost. Plus there would be no need to force a Ramirez trade. As you said, go into the season with ridiculous depth and see where it all falls.

The downside is Conforto’s defense but his career UZR/150 in CF isn’t far from Grichuk’s 2021; -6.7 vs -6.2.

But if the rumors are true about Conforto being unvaccinated, then it maybe moot;

 

[Bjindaho]

Shapiro said that payroll can still go up. Not 5 but close, so that's 20-25M potentially available

 

[phillipmike]

After the Chapman Trade:

Overall WAR: Went from 6th to 4th. 44.9 to 47.1 fWAR, an increase of 2.2 fWAR


3B WAR: Went from 28th to 9th. 1.6 to 3.8 fWAR, an increase of 2.2 fWAR


Overall Standings: Stayed at 2nd, Went from 92 projected wins to 93.

Looks like the Jays fWAR increased after yesterday’s trade. When from 47.1 to 47.8 which is Tapia’s exact projection; 0.7 fWAR.

But overall projected wins went from 93 back to 92.

 

[canucksfan]

Not sure whether to take these Conforto reports seriously or not. There are also multiple reports that he’s not vaccinated. You’d have to assume it’s either or, as the Jays aren’t going to bring in someone who can’t get in the country.

Or perhaps they are waiting to see if vaccination laws change. I doubt Conforto will remain available long enough to wait that out though.

From a sports perspective, I wouldn't sign an unvaccinated player. I don't think the vaccine requirements to enter Canada will be going away soon.

 

[Discoverer]

Looks like the Jays fWAR increased after yesterday’s trade. When from 47.1 to 47.8 which is Tapia’s exact projection; 0.7 fWAR.

But overall projected wins went from 93 back to 92.

I think the trade improves the team incrementally in the same way another decent reliever would: his fWAR and projection isn't any better than Grichuk's, but he should have a greater impact in late-and-close situations by providing a pinch-running option and a better OF defensive replacement.

Grichuk seems like a fantastic guy and I hope it works out for him in Colorado, but he just wasn't a fit:
- He's a worse player than all the starters on the team, so he shouldn't be starting (even though Montoyo liked to find ways to get him in the lineup).
- He's a worse hitter than all the starters, so he shouldn't be used as a pinch-hitter.
- He doesn't have any platoon advantage that makes him useful as a starter or situational pinch-hitter either.
- His OF defense is probably a slight upgrade over Teoscar/Gurriel, but it's not like he's a strong defender (and UZR, DRS, and OAA all prefer Tapia over the last few years, though his lack of experience in CF is a questionmark).
- He provided the least baserunning value on the team last year at -4.9 runs, so he shouldn't pinch run for anyone.

Even if money were equal (and it sounds like it is for this year, at least) I think Tapia makes a lot more sense for the team as currently constructed, even if they can't unlock and untapped potential or fix his launch angle or whatever.

 

[phillipmike]

Rogers Centre Renovations





Payroll

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Morgs]

Wonder how aggressive they're going to be with Orlevis. Seems strange to send him to Vancouver in April even though it's probably the best place to start.

Dunedin? New Hampshire?

 

[kb]

Wonder how aggressive they're going to be with Orlevis. Seems strange to send him to Vancouver in April even though it's probably the best place to start.

Dunedin? New Hampshire?

I believe Vancouver his high A this season, Dunedin is low A.

 

[Morgs]

I believe Vancouver his high A this season, Dunedin is low A.

Yep. He crushed Dunedin last year (A), so I'm wondering if they're gonna send him to A+ (Vancouver) for the start of the year, where he ended last year.

Just feels weird still sending your best (non-Moreno) prospect to Vancouver in general (most of our top-guys used to skip it, no?), let alone in April. Almost feels like he should warm up in FLA even though the comp is worse and move up as the weather gets nicer.

 

[Discoverer]

Yep. He crushed Dunedin last year (A), so I'm wondering if they're gonna send him to A+ (Vancouver) for the start of the year, where he ended last year.

Just feels weird still sending your best (non-Moreno) prospect to Vancouver in general (most of our top-guys used to skip it, no?), let alone in April. Almost feels like he should warm up in FLA even though the comp is worse and move up as the weather gets nicer.

I think a lot of them used to skip it because it was short-season ball, so the top prospects would move from rookie ball to full-season A-ball in Lansing.

 

[Morgs]

I think a lot of them used to skip it because it was short-season ball, so the top prospects would move from rookie ball to full-season A-ball in Lansing.

Exactly. It's just so new and such a dramatic change from Dunedin as our A+ team that I genuinely don't know whether they plan to send a guy like Orlevis there immediately.

 

[Apex Predator]

I believe Vancouver his high A this season, Dunedin is low A.

What is the difference between the two leagues?

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[ShaneFalco]

So, what does an organization do with four highly qualified catchers? It manages them with the idea that it is a long season, and the position is the most vulnerable to potential injuries.

I would plan on having Jansen as the primary catcher in Toronto with McGuire as his backup. McGuire is out of options, so he would have to be exposed to waivers if he doesn’t make the club and gets sent to the minors. That strengthens his chances of making the team because he helps maintain the depth in numbers at the position.

I would send Kirk down to Triple-A Buffalo and have him back up Moreno. Moreno will soon be the starter in Buffalo, and no one will stand in his way. He needs a bit more development, and Kirk can get at-bats there as a DH as well.

At some point, Jansen, McGuire or Kirk will become nice trade pieces to land pitching for the Jays. But for now, the team needs to plan for the marathon of a season and to protect its depth. The Grichuk trade and Toronto’s crowded catching situation - TSN.ca

 

[Discoverer]

That sounds like a really, really terrible idea. The only reason to have Kirk in AAA is because you want him catching every day. Even then I think it would be a bad idea, but he wants them to send Kirk down just to be a backup for Moreno and get a few AB as DH? Ugh.

I would keep three catchers on the roster and see how everyone's doing if/when they shrink the rosters. Barring that, I would trade (or, hell, even DFA) McGuire. Kirk 100% belongs on the team right now, especially without anyone entrenched in the DH spot.

 

[phillipmike]

Kiley McDaniel's American League team-by-team prospect rankings

From can't-miss players to breakout candidates, we rank the future stars in every AL system.

www.espn.com

Toronto Blue Jays​

No. 22 overall
No. 26 in quality depth (prospects better than 40 FV)
$154.5 million total value
33 players

1. Gabriel Moreno, C, 60 FV (12th in the Top 100)
2. Orelvis Martinez, SS, 60 FV (16)
3. Jordan Groshans, SS, 45+ FV
4. Leonardo Jimenez, SS, 45 FV
5. C.J. Van Eyk, RHP, 40+ FV
6. Rikelbin de Castro, SS, 40+ FV
7. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, 40+ FV
8. Sem Robberse, RHP, 40+ FV

40 FV (8): Manuel Beltre/SS, Estiven Machado/2B, Miguel Hiraldo/3B, Hayden Juenger/RHP, Otto Lopez/SS, Irv Carter/RHP, Chad Dallas/RHP, Adam Kloffenstein/RHP

35+ FV (17): Bowden Francis/RHP, Dahian Santos/RHP, Sebastian Espino/3B, Hagen Danner/RHP, Yosver Zulueta/RHP, Joey Murray/RHP, Tanner Morris/LF, Chavez Young/CF, Kendry Rojas/RHP, Gabriel Martinez/RF, Luis Meza/C, Samad Taylor/2B, Adrian Hernandez/RHP, Trent Palmer/RHP, Kyle Johnston/RHP, Nick Frasso/RHP, Connor Cooke/RHP

2022 Impact: Moreno

40+ FV breakout pick: Tiedemann

40 FV or less breakout pick: Beltre

Ranked prospects beyond the Top 100

Groshans gave off some Josh Donaldson vibes in first looks on the showcase circuit and into his draft spring, leading to him going 12th overall out of a Texas high school in 2018. He had a foot injury in 2019 then missed 2020 because of the pandemic and came out with more of a hit-over-power approach in 2021, producing surprisingly low exit velos for the kind of player he was in high school. Even as-is, there's still at least average offensive upside and is still an OK shortstop/good third baseman defensively, but there's always a chance that explosiveness returns.

Jimenez is another infielder with limited power, though that has always been the case with him. He can really hit, has a great approach and is a solid defensive shortstop, but there's just enough power here to still call him a future big leaguer of some sort. De Castro is another strong defensive shortstop and he can also hit, with a solid approach and more speed than Jimenez, but also with well-below average power. De Castro just turned 19, so there's still plenty of time for this to develop.

Van Eyk popped up in his high school senior draft spring in the Tampa area, but his price wasn't met and he went to Florida State. From those best high school looks until today (he's 23) it has been mostly similar, with three above-average pitches that'll flash plus occasionally and command that's usually fine, but never quite consistently rotation quality. Tiedemann's style of pitching -- a lower slot sinker/slider with lots of east/west elements -- wasn't en vogue five or so years ago but it's now a type where a number of teams are looking to find pitchers. In short stints, his sinker/slider/changeup combo can all flash plus and play around 55s in long stints, with solid coordination and command from a 6-foot-4 frame, so there's mid-rotation upside. Robberse signed out of the Netherlands in 2019, which you won't read in any other reports, and has steadily improved to develop solid-average stuff and starter traits within two years. He's still working through some finer points as you might expect, but he has made tons of progress in a short amount of time so scouts can project a lot for the 20-year-old.

Others of note

Beltre was one of the higher bonus players in the 2021 international class with a familiar hit-over-power with above-average athletic components scouting report, which held up through his DSL pro debut. He walked more than he struck out, underlining that he was more polished than many of his peers. Machado has played only one pro game due to injury but he also fits in the Beltre style of international signee, with a hit-over-power approach and middle infield fit. Hiraldo is a little different, as a decent defensive third baseman who swings with a lot of effort and has another Rule 5 decision coming up in a 2022 season where he'll probably go to High-A. Fully different than this whole group is Morris, a bat-first and maybe bat-only type prospect who fits at second base and left field best and has just passable in-game power, but he can really hit and has a good approach, so there's a good shot at a big league future.

Juenger has drawn a good bit of trade interest, which makes sense given his solid pro debut and above-average stuff from a low slot, in a quick-moving reliever-type profile. Irv Carter and Chad Dallas are two 2021 draftees showing well early in their pro careers. Carter was an overslot prep arm from the same team as Phillies first-rounder Andrew Painter, both of whom were seen by scouts a ton. Carter has effort and relief risk, but is regularly in the mid-90s with above-average raw stuff and more feel than you'd assume from his delivery. Dallas was a late bloomer, transferring from a JC to Tennessee, and has less raw stuff than Carter, but throws strikes and knows how to use his stuff that's headlined by an above-average slider. Adrian Hernandez has a 70-grade changeup but sits around 90 mph, so he's relegated to long or middle relief despite strong performance. Johnston has taken a step forward since being acquired from the Nats for Daniel Hudson, now sitting in the upper-90s with a power cutter/slider. Cooke is another guy who has emerged, with his velo jumping three or four ticks since the draft, now regularly into the mid-90s, helping project him as a big league quality reliever.

 

[Morgs]

Barger my not on the map "breakout" guy this season.

 

[canucksfan]

Jays have a few prospects that could really rise up in the rankings.

 

[phillipmike]

Really stupid planning. They better hope Ramirez doesnt get hurt nor take a step back. Best time to sell is now.