Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season V: Baseball's back and so are blockbusters (Jays send 4 prospects to A's for 3B Matt Chapman)

[Leafblooded]

All this movement yet we still can't get rid of Grichuk huh

Yay, thank you Shatkinses

 

[Bjindaho]

Colorado has a 127M payroll, but 21M of that is Blackmon (who has a backloaded deal) and 18M is Bryant (who also has a backloaded deal).

They are also still paying Arenado 5.5M and Castilla (yes, Vinny) 106K.

 

[dredeye]

I think this also means no Gurriel in a potential Guardians trade

 

[dredeye]

Anybody a little bit worried it's just two years of Chapmann and then we lose him to free agency? I know it'll be a good two years but with having to pay our own big guns I wonder if we can retain him.

Nope you worry about that then. We'll have guys ready to replace by that point and more trades will be inevitable. Just enjoy the ride and hope they find a way to make it all work. Ryu will be off the books at the same time and no Grichuk who's money was coming off at the same time. We will lose guys to free agency as well. Teo could go chasing same as Gurriel

 

[dredeye]

The praise for Pinto is coming from outside of Toronto too. Weird the Rockies would just toss him away like that.

Don't worry I'm sure the trio of Grichuk, Blackmon and Bryant will lead them to glory...assuming Coors Field isn't swallowed by the supermassive black hole generated from the lack of defense in the outfield.

I think that was the cost of us sending money.

 

[canucksfan]

 

[Canada4Gold]

Not sure how to feel about this Grichuk trade. My first thought was I was happy he was gone. But to be honest he's probably a better player than Tapia and a solid player to have off the bench. Though they're very different players. If they need the money then great. Not sure how much money they're sending, but I don't think the team is any better than they were 3 hours ago, and they might be slightly worse. At a quick glance you'd probably rather Grichuk playing CF when needed rather than Tapia as well. The prospect they got looks promising so that's a plus. If the money they send makes money equal this year and they take all Grichuk's money next year that's decent. Don't get me wrong, I'm not down on the trade. I'm just kind of concerned it makes us slightly worse this year unless they needed the money for something,

At least I don't have to worry bout Montoyo overplaying Grichuk. I'd assume Kirk should be getting DH opportunities rather than Tapia.

 

[Amadeus]

No issues from my side, Randall.

You were an Orioles killer. Really enjoyed you owning them in your time here!

 

[as Pure as Evil]

Guy showed up and played during his tenure could have complained but a professional from day 1 to trade day

 

[TGB]

Not sure how to feel about this Grichuk trade. My first thought was I was happy he was gone. But to be honest he's probably a better player than Tapia and a solid player to have off the bench.

Agreed. The Jays outfield was solid all around with Grichuk. Now we're in a bit of a jam if there is an injury. It's not like the guy is an elite outfielder. At least Grichuk was capable of going on a hot streak.

Hopefully the point of this was to free up money for a big signing or something.

Still think they should trade Groshans for an equivalent level outfield prospect. So many infielders...

"Anybody a little bit worried it's just two years of Chapmann and then we lose him to free agency? I know it'll be a good two years but with having to pay our own big guns I wonder if we can retain him."

Nah, it's a perfect scenario. Chapman impresses? Good, he'll still be young enough to fit in a decent contract or at least trade him for something worthwhile. He disappoints? No prob, at least he'll play sound defense until Martinez gets here who so far looks good enough as is.

They better not trade Martinez. 2 years of a guy who will walk is not worth giving up 6 years or so of a guy who will be cheap just as our young guys get expensive. Money is going to be a real problem soon.

 

[Discoverer]

Not sure how to feel about this Grichuk trade. My first thought was I was happy he was gone. But to be honest he's probably a better player than Tapia and a solid player to have off the bench. Though they're very different players. If they need the money then great. Not sure how much money they're sending, but I don't think the team is any better than they were 3 hours ago, and they might be slightly worse. At a quick glance you'd probably rather Grichuk playing CF when needed rather than Tapia as well. The prospect they got looks promising so that's a plus. If the money they send makes money equal this year and they take all Grichuk's money next year that's decent. Don't get me wrong, I'm not down on the trade. I'm just kind of concerned it makes us slightly worse this year unless they needed the money for something,

At least I don't have to worry bout Montoyo overplaying Grichuk. I'd assume Kirk should be getting DH opportunities rather than Tapia.

I think they're roughly equal this year with a prospect and maybe a little bit of savings to show for it. I'm not a big Tapia fan, but I like him soooo much more as a 4th OF for this team.

Not having the instinct to overplay Grichuk because of how much he makes or how long he's been here or something is probably a nice little bonus.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Tapia's year over year profile is weird. Specifically the K and BB%. I started off looking at his earlier numbers and was concerned about the mid 20's K% and 5% BB%. Turns out he's a guy who walks 7% of the time and only K's 13% of the time? That's quite the change in approach or skill to half your K rate while walking more.

 

[MikeK]

He may have been a pro and showed up to play every day but this is the pro's and that's what you do. Grichuk is an overpaid bench player and the team got a lot faster in this deal. I'm honestly surprised they were able to move him for what they got. This was a pretty nice trade for the Jays.

 

[TGB]

He may have been a pro and showed up to play every day but this is the pro's and that's what you do. Grichuk is an overpaid bench player and the team got a lot faster in this deal. I'm honestly surprised they were able to move him for what they got. This was a pretty nice trade for the Jays.

It's not exactly common for bench players to get as many at bats as he did to produce as much as he did. And while playing good outfield, too.

The guy may have been streaky and disappointed at the worst possible times, but as far as getting their money's worth, the Jays got what they needed out of Grichuk. And he was a FAR better interview than anyone else until Bichette came into the picture. I say credit where credit is due.

 

[habamillions]

So the jays are sending colorado 5.3 this year and 4.3 mil next year.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Yeah this doesn't make me feel any better about the trade. Almost a wash this year and we're paying significant money next year as well. I'll feel better if Montoyo doesn't overplay Tapia but I can just see him doing something stupid like using him as the leadoff hitter when he plays.

 

[The Nemesis]

I made a silly meme post about it, but on the whole I'm not sure what to think about the Grichuk trade. For all the kvetching about him and his contract, Grichuk wasn't terrible and he was at least very good 4th OF type: he could serviceably play all 3 OF positions and his bat was capable of getting hot and carrying him for a few weeks if he had to be in the lineup regularly. People keep treating his contract like a financial albatross, but $10m isn't really that big of a deal and swapping Tapia in for him only saves about $6m. That's maybe enough to get you a couple of good(ish) pen arms, but it's not like it's massive financial freedom and the team can reshape a portion of its roster on the added budget. Or at least it would be if the Jays weren't wiping out that surplus by sending it to the Rockies to help pay off Randal's contract.

Besides that while I get that Tapia offers an attractive package in that he's what the Jays lacked (speed, a lefty bat) he's also had nearly 1500 career PAs to show what he is: a mostly replacement level OF with apparently sub-optimal D (metrics seem to indicate that his results have been acceptable in left, but mostly trash in small samples in CF and RF) and a well below average bat (career wRC+ of 78).

Someone said he's Ben Revere with an arm, but I'd argue he's worse Ben Revere with an arm because at least Ben Revere could hit his way on base while he wasn't taking any walks. Tapia takes a few more walks, but hits a lot less.

Honestly this reminds me of the hype machine around how Emlio Bonifacio was going to be the secret weapon from the Marlins deal on the expectation that he could simply start hitting better in the Jays' lineup while also being a versatile super-sub. Instead we got a guy who could play 3 or 4 positions, all of them poorly, and whose speed was neutered by the fact that he could not hit to save his life.

And yeah, "but lefty bat!" except he has some reverse splits, with a higher career average vs LHPs than RHPs while the rest of the #s don't skew hard enough to the platoon side to showcase his value as a hand-specific bat off the bench while also still being well below average (career wRC+ of 80 vs RHP compared to 71 vs LHP). And remember, in the context of wRC+, "average" would qualify as a fairly bad hitter. 100 wRC+ hitters over the last 5 years combine are the likes of the remains of Ben Zobrist, Mike Zunino, Travis d'Arnaud, Curtis Granderson, the bad Dexter Fowler, Aledmys Diaz, Brandon Crawford, Starlin Castro, Evan Longoria's downswing, Travis Shaw, Jay Bruce, Nick Markakis, etc. Serviceable players, sure but usually in the context of adding value as a defender or having an obvious keystone skill like power or contact hitting. And certainly not someone that should be slotting higher than the bottom 3rd of your order unless things are bad.

All I'm trying to say is that this is different, but I don't know if I'd call it even a close win for the Jays, nevermind an easy one.

 

[phillipmike]

So save $1M this year, Tapia makes $3.95M this season and possibly $5-6M next year, seems like a win.

 

[Discoverer]

Yeah this doesn't make me feel any better about the trade. Almost a wash this year and we're paying significant money next year as well. I'll feel better if Montoyo doesn't overplay Tapia but I can just see him doing something stupid like using him as the leadoff hitter when he plays.

I think $4.3 million next year for nothing is a better use of resources than $10.3 for Grichuk.

 

[phillipmike]

aka Atkins playing hardball with agents and teams in trade talks.

 

[Bjindaho]

I made a silly meme post about it, but on the whole I'm not sure what to think about the Grichuk trade. For all the kvetching about him and his contract, Grichuk wasn't terrible and he was at least very good 4th OF type: he could serviceably play all 3 OF positions and his bat was capable of getting hot and carrying him for a few weeks if he had to be in the lineup regularly. People keep treating his contract like a financial albatross, but $10m isn't really that big of a deal and swapping Tapia in for him only saves about $6m. That's maybe enough to get you a couple of good(ish) pen arms, but it's not like it's massive financial freedom and the team can reshape a portion of its roster on the added budget. Or at least it would be if the Jays weren't wiping out that surplus by sending it to the Rockies to help pay off Randal's contract.

Besides that while I get that Tapia offers an attractive package in that he's what the Jays lacked (speed, a lefty bat) he's also had nearly 1500 career PAs to show what he is: a mostly replacement level OF with apparently sub-optimal D (metrics seem to indicate that his results have been acceptable in left, but mostly trash in small samples in CF and RF) and a well below average bat (career wRC+ of 78).

Someone said he's Ben Revere with an arm, but I'd argue he's worse Ben Revere with an arm because at least Ben Revere could hit his way on base while he wasn't taking any walks. Tapia takes a few more walks, but hits a lot less.

Honestly this reminds me of the hype machine around how Emlio Bonifacio was going to be the secret weapon from the Marlins deal on the expectation that he could simply start hitting better in the Jays' lineup while also being a versatile super-sub. Instead we got a guy who could play 3 or 4 positions, all of them poorly, and whose speed was neutered by the fact that he could not hit to save his life.

And yeah, "but lefty bat!" except he has some reverse splits, with a higher career average vs LHPs than RHPs while the rest of the #s don't skew hard enough to the platoon side to showcase his value as a hand-specific bat off the bench while also still being well below average (career wRC+ of 80 vs RHP compared to 71 vs LHP). And remember, in the context of wRC+, "average" would qualify as a fairly bad hitter. 100 wRC+ hitters over the last 5 years combine are the likes of the remains of Ben Zobrist, Mike Zunino, Travis d'Arnaud, Curtis Granderson, the bad Dexter Fowler, Aledmys Diaz, Brandon Crawford, Starlin Castro, Evan Longoria's downswing, Travis Shaw, Jay Bruce, Nick Markakis, etc. Serviceable players, sure but usually in the context of adding value as a defender or having an obvious keystone skill like power or contact hitting. And certainly not someone that should be slotting higher than the bottom 3rd of your order unless things are bad.

All I'm trying to say is that this is different, but I don't know if I'd call it even a close win for the Jays, nevermind an easy one.

Tapia can play other OF positions. 15 innings is not proof to the contrary.

Randal was also not very good in CF (but in a lot more innings).

Tapia has a higher career OBP than Revere.

 

[kb]

I made a silly meme post about it, but on the whole I'm not sure what to think about the Grichuk trade. For all the kvetching about him and his contract, Grichuk wasn't terrible and he was at least very good 4th OF type: he could serviceably play all 3 OF positions and his bat was capable of getting hot and carrying him for a few weeks if he had to be in the lineup regularly. People keep treating his contract like a financial albatross, but $10m isn't really that big of a deal and swapping Tapia in for him only saves about $6m. That's maybe enough to get you a couple of good(ish) pen arms, but it's not like it's massive financial freedom and the team can reshape a portion of its roster on the added budget. Or at least it would be if the Jays weren't wiping out that surplus by sending it to the Rockies to help pay off Randal's contract.

Besides that while I get that Tapia offers an attractive package in that he's what the Jays lacked (speed, a lefty bat) he's also had nearly 1500 career PAs to show what he is: a mostly replacement level OF with apparently sub-optimal D (metrics seem to indicate that his results have been acceptable in left, but mostly trash in small samples in CF and RF) and a well below average bat (career wRC+ of 78).

Someone said he's Ben Revere with an arm, but I'd argue he's worse Ben Revere with an arm because at least Ben Revere could hit his way on base while he wasn't taking any walks. Tapia takes a few more walks, but hits a lot less.

Honestly this reminds me of the hype machine around how Emlio Bonifacio was going to be the secret weapon from the Marlins deal on the expectation that he could simply start hitting better in the Jays' lineup while also being a versatile super-sub. Instead we got a guy who could play 3 or 4 positions, all of them poorly, and whose speed was neutered by the fact that he could not hit to save his life.

And yeah, "but lefty bat!" except he has some reverse splits, with a higher career average vs LHPs than RHPs while the rest of the #s don't skew hard enough to the platoon side to showcase his value as a hand-specific bat off the bench while also still being well below average (career wRC+ of 80 vs RHP compared to 71 vs LHP). And remember, in the context of wRC+, "average" would qualify as a fairly bad hitter. 100 wRC+ hitters over the last 5 years combine are the likes of the remains of Ben Zobrist, Mike Zunino, Travis d'Arnaud, Curtis Granderson, the bad Dexter Fowler, Aledmys Diaz, Brandon Crawford, Starlin Castro, Evan Longoria's downswing, Travis Shaw, Jay Bruce, Nick Markakis, etc. Serviceable players, sure but usually in the context of adding value as a defender or having an obvious keystone skill like power or contact hitting. And certainly not someone that should be slotting higher than the bottom 3rd of your order unless things are bad.

All I'm trying to say is that this is different, but I don't know if I'd call it even a close win for the Jays, nevermind an easy one.

Yeah, I see that too. So what I am going to do is look at it from the other side of the fence. I am not wondering if they think there is some more to unlock in Tapia. I looked at his minor league numbers, and with the exception of his very first season in pro ball, every year he was well over .300 (most at .320ish and above), and his OPS was usually well in excess of .800.

Tapia is in his age 28 season, when a lot of breakouts tend occur. Now having said this, the Jays definitely aren't the team he needed a fresh start with as he probably won't get enough AB's to allow this...but who knows, it might be possible.

Plus in 2020 he hit .321 (finishing 8th in the NL) along with .370 OBP and a .772 OPS.

Throw in the fact that the Jays get some relief from the the CBT threshold the next 2 seasons along with the fact they got a prospect who put up video game like numbers, and I think this has the makings of a solid move. We knew what we had in Randal, and we knew this was his 'even' year uptick, but at the end of the day it seems it was more to do right by Randal as much as anything....give him a fresh start in a place where he will start and has a chance to put up huge numbers that was never going to happen here.

How did I do?

 

[phillipmike]

Getting to know the Blue Jays new #20 prospect, Adrian Pinto

<span style="font-weight: 400">Despite being prospect #6 about to be r...

bluejaysnation.com

According to MLB Pipeline writer, Keegan Matheson, Pinto just missed out on the Rockies top 30 list for MLB Pipeline. The diminutive second baseman also didn’t feature on Fangraphs top prospects list.

With that being said though, he did place 19th on Baseball America’s list. They note that he has great hand-eye coordination and a short stroke. Coupled with his smaller stature, Pinto has a great eye at the plate, which you can see by the fact he walked 17% of the time.

Despite being only 5’6, Pinto does have sneaky power as he hit those three home runs mentioned in the section above, which also notes his 22 extra base hits.

I asked Francys Romero (@FrancysRomeroFR) for any information on the 19-year-old second baseman. To paraphrase, [Pinto] is a pure hitter, with great bat speed. He has a plus arm (60 grade) and plus speed (70 grade). He also has the ability for extra base hits.

 

[Anthrax442]

I was going to sayy that now we could sign Stroman, but he is already gone to the Cubs

 

[phillipmike]

Best of luck Randal. He didnt always play well but he was healthy and gave it his all.