Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Pt VIII: Spring approaches and less (fewer) things are happening

[canucksfan]

Yeah, I edited my post to add my thoughts on Semien. I think he's somewhere between "very good" and "elite". There are some questionmarks there, for sure, but I think Jays fans are understating the kind of impact player he's capable of being.

Agreed. Even if he provides average offence his defense alone will make him a 3.0 WAR player. He could potentially put up a 5-6 WAR season.

The other benefit is he can easily slide in and play SS instead of someone like Panik that can’t play short.

 

[Scion]

I wouldn't be too surprised if the Jays had people leak to the media that they were close to reaching their budget. Helps to temper previously high expectations as it grows less likely each day that they're going fulfill their 2/4 promise.

I've seen arguments that Springer counts as 1 elite and that Semien/Walker would qualify as two "very goods" but that feels like kind've a cop out doesn't it?

Semien is a very nice piece but has only exceeded an 100 wRC+ once. I haven't look into the distance/launch angles of his homeruns from the past few years but with the balls being de-juiced, he'll have an even harder time eclipsing that number again. On top of that, he's playing a less valuable position than he has in the past.

I've obviously been more critical of management than the average poster here but I will proudly eat my words and give proper praise if they land a Kyle Hendricks type. Until then I'd consider myself frustrated and that budget report from Mitchell irked me very much.

If you are frustrated with the additions made this offseason that is on you, not management.

 

[Scion]

People need to realize that next years free agent class could be the best one in years. There is a very practical and sound reason to avoid commitments to players for more than a year as it could prohibit the clubs flexibility on the market next year.

Not to mention that the players left on the market are not likely difference makers.

 

[canucksfan]

While it isn't over yet, the Jays off-season has been very successful. They signed the best FA available in Springer which also fills the biggest need positionally for the team. Yates, Phelps, and Chatwood are nice bullpen adds. Matz and Ray are decent acquisitions to the rotation. Semien is a great pickup. More importantly, they will have a lot of spending flexibility next off-season as well. I still would like them to add another pitcher to the rotation but if they don't I am very pleased with this off-season.

I should also add, they gave up very few prospects.

 

[Cor]

I think my biggest wish currently is Trevor Rosenthal.

Really disappointed we didn’t make an offer on Paxton. I would have had zero issues giving Paxton 8.5M for the year.

I like Walker for the right price.
Odorizzi.... I mean, sure.

But would love to add Rosenthal to our bullpen. Adding he and Kirby Yates, to an already solid bullpen, would help cover some of the issues our rotation has.

I think Nate Pearson is the real deal. I think he’s going to step into that #2 role all by himself. I would like to add a solid #3, which I think Paxton could’ve been, but less confident in the other 2.

So yeah, sign Rosenthal. Sign Walker. Dump Roark and this season will have been a very massive success

 

[Hoverhand]

If you are frustrated with the additions made this offseason that is on you, not management.

It'll be on management because we don't have a rotation good enough to compete against other playoff teams. Something that's not an unreasonable demand.

We have one consistently top of the rotation starter, is this is one of window years (it absolutely should be) that needs to change in order for this to be a successful offseason.

People need to realize that next years free agent class could be the best one in years. There is a very practical and sound reason to avoid commitments to players for more than a year as it could prohibit the clubs flexibility on the market next year.

Not to mention that the players left on the market are not likely difference makers.

the Jays already have an incredibly small amount of money committed in 2022, they can quite easily upgrade at SP and still be heavy spenders in next year's market. Matz and Ray are good projects and having one of them in the rotation doesnt bother me but both of them were gas cans last year and we're not likely to be legitamite contenders with both of them getting a substantial amount of starts.

Odorizzi and Walker would be upgrades even though they're not huge needle movers. I'd prefer to dip into the trade market as well.

 

[canucksfan]

It'll be on management because we don't have a rotation good enough to compete against other playoff teams. Something that's not an unreasonable demand.

We have one consistently top of the rotation starter, is this is one of window years (it absolutely should be) that needs to change in order for this to be a successful offseason.



the Jays already have an incredibly small amount of money committed in 2022, they can quite easily upgrade at SP and still be heavy spenders in next year's market. Matz and Ray are good projects and having one of them in the rotation doesnt bother me but both of them were gas cans last year and we're not likely to be legitamite contenders with both of them getting a substantial amount of starts.

Odorizzi and Walker would be upgrades even though they're not huge needle movers. I'd prefer to dip into the trade market as well.

You have to remember, this is the first year where the Jays have been really aggressive in the off-season. They have signed a lot of good players and the best FA this off-season. While the rotation is a weakness, there is still time to add even during the season. Even if this is the team that starts opening day the off-season is a definite success. Ranking all the team's moves during this off-season I would rank the Jays in the top three.

 

[Discoverer]

It'll be on management because we don't have a rotation good enough to compete against other playoff teams. Something that's not an unreasonable demand.

We have one consistently top of the rotation starter, is this is one of window years (it absolutely should be) that needs to change in order for this to be a successful offseason.



the Jays already have an incredibly small amount of money committed in 2022, they can quite easily upgrade at SP and still be heavy spenders in next year's market. Matz and Ray are good projects and having one of them in the rotation doesnt bother me but both of them were gas cans last year and we're not likely to be legitamite contenders with both of them getting a substantial amount of starts.

Odorizzi and Walker would be upgrades even though they're not huge needle movers. I'd prefer to dip into the trade market as well.

By those standards, the Rays and Yankees don't have rotations good enough to compete, either. All three rotations are similar: an ace, then a bunch of guys with potential and huge questionmarks (the Yankees because most of their rotation hasn't pitched in a year or two, the Rays because everyone sucked last year or didn't pitch last year and sucked the year before).

For the record, Fangraphs projects the Jays as the 6th best pitching staff in 2021... 3rd in the AL.

 

[Scion]

It'll be on management because we don't have a rotation good enough to compete against other playoff teams. Something that's not an unreasonable demand.

We have one consistently top of the rotation starter, is this is one of window years (it absolutely should be) that needs to change in order for this to be a successful offseason.



the Jays already have an incredibly small amount of money committed in 2022, they can quite easily upgrade at SP and still be heavy spenders in next year's market. Matz and Ray are good projects and having one of them in the rotation doesnt bother me but both of them were gas cans last year and we're not likely to be legitamite contenders with both of them getting a substantial amount of starts.

Odorizzi and Walker would be upgrades even though they're not huge needle movers. I'd prefer to dip into the trade market as well.

Who is the SP available that is going to catapault the Jays into the same tier as the Yankees this offseason? The players you are whining about dont push the needle much if at all.

 

[phillipmike]

Adam
7:05
Given a strange 2020 draft/minor league season how does that affect the value of PTBNLs?

Mark P
7:06
If I'm not mistaken, the rule is still that PTBNLs have to be identified within six months of a trade. Wouldn't shock me if teams take closer to the long end of that six-month window in order to properly scout and evaluate prospects they didn't get a chance to see in 2020

I guess we will find out who that 2nd prospect we owe to the Dodgers to complete the Stripling trade in 2 weeks or less.

 

[Hoverhand]

Who is the SP available that is going to catapault the Jays into the same tier as the Yankees this offseason? The players you are whining about dont push the needle much if at all.

We were rumored to be in on Sonny Gray and Kyle Hendricks, both we have the prospect capital to obtain and would be needle pushers.

By those standards, the Rays and Yankees don't have rotations good enough to compete, either. All three rotations are similar: an ace, then a bunch of guys with potential and huge questionmarks (the Yankees because most of their rotation hasn't pitched in a year or two, the Rays because everyone sucked last year or didn't pitch last year and sucked the year before).

For the record, Fangraphs projects the Jays as the 6th best pitching staff in 2021... 3rd in the AL.

Sounds like we could separate ourselves from the pack by bolstering our pitching staff.

 

[canucksfan]

We were rumored to be in on Sonny Gray and Kyle Hendricks, both we have the prospect capital to obtain and would be needle pushers.



Sounds like we could separate ourselves from the pack by bolstering our pitching staff.

It depends on what teams want in return. I am not in favor of trading good prospects for pitchers in their 30's. I would prefer the Jays trade for a good pitcher that is in their mid 20's.

One thing to keep in mind, there is no rush to acquire a pitcher. Jays can acquire one during the season or even next off-season. The window to compete has just opened up. Management can be patient and wait for the right player to come along.

 

[Hoverhand]

It depends on what teams want in return. I am not in favor of trading good prospects for pitchers in their 30's. I would prefer the Jays trade for a good pitcher that is in their mid 20's.

One thing to keep in mind, there is no rush to acquire a pitcher. Jays can acquire one during the season or even next off-season. The window to compete has just opened up. Management can be patient and wait for the right player to come along.

Most of our SP prospects are still relatively early on their development (SWR, Kloff, Manoah, Pardinho, Van Eyk, Robberse, etc.) I feel like it would be smarter to trade for a pitcher in his early 30s and give up less prospect capital than you would trading for a pitcher in their mid-20s. We can theoretically get 3-4 quality years out of Kyle Hendricks and then replace him with our pipeline.

EDIT: Also the odds of winning a world series are so low that when you're only 1-2 pieces away from building a championship caliber team, why not maximize the amount of years your window is open.

 

[ktownhockey]

Sign Walker, and let's move on with our day.

 

[thehockeysong]

As far as the overall level of player, I would certainly consider Siemens and Yates to be in the very good category to go along with the Springer elite category. Which aligns exactly with what the front office indicated. The only question is whether the conservative assessment of Siemens being only very good comes to fruition or if he returns to being a truly elite in every sense player.

 

[BlueForever75]

Jays will be fine. There isnt anything to worry about going into the season with the roster the way it is.

I still expect Walker to be signed or at least fought for before all is said and done. If we can add him back the rotation is ok. People need to remember what kind of pitcher Pearson is. He has the potential to have. Strasburg type rookie season. If he does this rotation is going to be very good.

 

[le_sean]

By those standards, the Rays and Yankees don't have rotations good enough to compete, either. All three rotations are similar: an ace, then a bunch of guys with potential and huge questionmarks (the Yankees because most of their rotation hasn't pitched in a year or two, the Rays because everyone sucked last year or didn't pitch last year and sucked the year before).

For the record, Fangraphs projects the Jays as the 6th best pitching staff in 2021... 3rd in the AL.

I would say Severino, Taillon and Kluber offer much higher upside than Pearson, Matz and Ray.

I don’t have an issue with taking a gamble on arms that can turn it around, but you can’t make the entire success of your rotation dependant on that.

 

[Beaumaris]

Sign Walker, and let's move on with our day.

Based on what I watched last season,I would pass on him.

 

[Bjindaho]

It's incredible how night and day Stripling was. He threw a massive amount of curves with LA in the first half and got destroyed by it. He went to a more traditional fastball slider approach and his underlying numbers improved dramatically.

Add better IF defense to his pitching profile from the 2nd half, and he could be the quality starter the team needs.

 

[Discoverer]

I would say Severino, Taillon and Kluber offer much higher upside than Pearson, Matz and Ray.

I don’t have an issue with taking a gamble on arms that can turn it around, but you can’t make the entire success of your rotation dependant on that.

I agree the upside is higher, but the risk probably is, too.

Last year, Severino, Taillon, and Kluber combined to throw one inning. As if that's not concerning enough, they combined to throw 84 innings in 2019. The Yankees (like the Jays and Rays) are counting on a rotation full of guys they hope will turn it around.

Not to mention Severino won't be back until the second half of the season anyway, and his replacement German also didn't throw an inning in 2020 and was garbage the second half of 2019...

The Jays have a lot of questionmarks in the rotation and should absolutely be looking to add another good arm. There's no question about that. But people looking at it as if the rotation isn't good enough to contend are ignoring that the rotations they're competing against in the AL aren't any better.

 

[Scion]

We were rumored to be in on Sonny Gray and Kyle Hendricks, both we have the prospect capital to obtain and would be needle pushers.



Sounds like we could separate ourselves from the pack by bolstering our pitching staff.

Well if it was rumored then it must be true.

 

[Swervin81]

Even all the popular targets (Walker, Paxton, Odorizzi) have question marks around themselves regarding injuries or sustainability. There's no such thing as a proven arm out of the bunch left (and one could say there never really was out of this FA class). Don't get me wrong, I'm more confident in Walker at least being decent than Matz or Ray turning it around - but I'd be fine with just having Walker being brought in and calling it a day. As others have noted, we can always address any holes that emerge via trade as the season goes on - we have lots of prospect capital.

 

[smitty10]

Ordering a Springer jersey. Debating between a Nike or Majestic brand jersey. Any preferences out there? Looking for some advice to differences, etc.

 

[as Pure as Evil]

i would have liked to get paxton but who knows what transpired . but we have gotten some great pieces this offseason. which 3 months ago most would have been called a pipe dream, if someone would have said we would get springer yates seimen ect . while looking at the rotation i do think the minute we signed ray it kind of put a hamper on paxton. would have so many lefties..

we stripped the org to its bones a little under 2 years ago. had just under a full season with the kids taking control. half of the last season and the shortened pandemic one. its going to be a process and like a few have pointed out next years crop has alot of potential additions.

not to mention what could transpire with in season trades and what ever else.

beyond getting a top end sp i cant see this offseason as anything but a major success

 

[The Nemesis]

Paxton always scared me with the heavy downside of him still being hurt or permanently diminished due to his injuries. Given that he signed a cheap, incentive-laden deal with a non-contender in a pitchers' park that he has familiarity with as an apparent "rebuild his value" proposition, it would seem that getting good money from contending teams looking to bolster their rotations wasn't something on the table with him. And if multiple playoff potential teams said "thanks but no thanks" at full price, I can't help but figure that means the risk I was worried about is very real.

So I'm not all that concerned that the Jays didn't make an offer. Why make an offer if you have no expectations that the value you assign to him and the value he holds for himself are anywhere close to compatible? Especially if you can potentially know what other offers are out there (It seems likely that Boras would've shopped that Mariners contract to the contending teams with a "if you match this James'll sign with you instead" pitch.).