Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Pt VIII: Spring approaches and less (fewer) things are happening

[Cor]

.... what?

NEVER offered a deal?

 

[SDig14]

Assumimg Pearson stays healthy and takes a big step forward and is really good this year, what is a realistic innings limit for him? Knowing this front office, I'm sure he will have one.

 

[phillipmike]

I’m not overreacting but if this is true why did we take on Matz’s $5.2M and say Chatwood’s $3M plus Phelps $1.75M.

That’s $10M right there. Could have grabbed someone like Paxton, Quintana, or Happ and went with Thornton and Merryweather in the pen.

Still have time to grab an arm or make a trade but I hope we aren’t maxed out on payroll.

 

[SDig14]

I’m not overreacting but if this is true why did we take on Matz’s $5.2M and say Chatwood’s $3M plus Phelps $1.75M.

That’s $10M right there. Could have grabbed someone like Paxton, Quintana, or Happ and went with Thornton and Merryweather in the pen.

Still have time to grab an arm or make a trade but I hope we aren’t maxed out on payroll.

If I knew this was true I would be overreacting pretty hard. We have heard they had interest in Walker, Paxton, Rosenthal, etc. since their last signing. But, also heard they were interested in Gonzalez and Miller and didn't sign either and they make very little, so that could indicate they are close to being out of funds...

 

[thehockeysong]

Paxton was definitely a good target IF he was healthy. That was the upside play. Based on the lack of bidding for him, I don't think teams thought he looked like a good bet to be healthy and performing.

 

[dredeye]

Now the Mets are focused on odorizzi and Walker.

 

[phillipmike]

If I knew this was true I would be overreacting pretty hard. We have heard they had interest in Walker, Paxton, Rosenthal, etc. since their last signing. But, also heard they were interested in Gonzalez and Miller and didn't sign either and they make very little, so that could indicate they are close to being out of funds...

Yeah it’s really strange IF true.

Clearly Marwin and Miller are better than Panik and they cost $1-2M more if Panik makes the team, the cost of Phelps.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Really strange that they never even offered Paxton a contract. The team is so, so close to being a legit contender if they could add a few starters.

 

[Cor]

I am so upset. Not even making an offer to Paxton

 

[TopChedder]

I highly doubt we are tapped out financially. We are literally the second wealthiest owner in the MLB.

This seems like some self imposed limit, which is weird because we are WAY under the tax.

 

[hockeywiz542]

James Paxton returns to Mariners for $8.5M, 1-year deal - The Associated Press

NEW YORK (AP) — Left-hander James Paxton is returning to the Seattle Mariners after an injury filled second season with the New York Yankees.

The 32-year-old left-hander and the Mariners agreed Saturday to an $8.5 million, one-year contract, a person with knowledge of the negotiations told The Associated Press.

The person spoke on condition of anonymity because the agreement was subject to a successful physical.

Paxton can earn an additional $1.5 million in performance bonuses for starts: $150,000 each for six to 10 and $750,000 more over starts 11-22.

He earned $4,629,630 in prorated pay from a $12.5 million salary last year with New York.

 

[Discoverer]

I am so upset. Not even making an offer to Paxton

It's David Price all over again.

If they knew their numbers were way off (Paxton looking for $10 million, Jays only comfortable at $4-5 due to injury concerns) why would they ever make an official offer?

I don't know if that's the case, obviously, but there are situations where it's perfectly reasonable to not make an offer.

 

[Discoverer]

I highly doubt we are tapped out financially. We are literally the second wealthiest owner in the MLB.

This seems like some self imposed limit, which is weird because we are WAY under the tax.

That's what "tapped out" would refer to - they're close to their internal budget.

I don't understand how Mitchell is coming to that conclusion. They didn't sign Paxton or a couple utility guys they were interested in so they must not have any more money to spend? That logic makes no sense at all.

 

[Bjindaho]

In a perfect world, we non-roster invite Sanchez, look into Robertson, sign Odorizzi (though I think a Roark trade is needed) and explore a SP trade.

 

[dredeye]

It's David Price all over again.

If they knew their numbers were way off (Paxton looking for $10 million, Jays only comfortable at $4-5 due to injury concerns) why would they ever make an official offer?

I don't know if that's the case, obviously, but there are situations where it's perfectly reasonable to not make an offer.

This. The Jays not making an offer is of no consequence. It could be like you said. It could be that Paxton doesn’t want to be in the AL east. He’s trying to build his value back up on a show me deal. The east is not the place to do that. They may not have liked his Medicals. They may have maxed out his value at 8 million. We have no idea.

 

[Bjindaho]

In a perfect world, we non-roster invite Sanchez, look into Robertson, sign Odorizzi (though I think a Roark trade is needed) and explore a SP trade.

Sorry, forgot Wilson

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Discoverer]

This. The Jays not making an offer is of no consequence. It could be like you said. It could be that Paxton doesn’t want to be in the AL east. He’s trying to build his value back up on a show me deal. The east is not the place to do that. They may not have liked his Medicals. They may have maxed out his value at 8 million. We have no idea.

Yep. Teams probably don't make official offers unless they know there's a lot of common ground and the two sides are close. If they're not, there's absolutely no point in making an offer just to say they made one.

 

[canucksfan]

Ryu
Pearson
Walker
Ray
Matz/Stripling/whoever.

Not ideal and I would be much more confident if they added a steady number 2. If they all perform to their potential or like they did in the past that is a good rotation. However, Ryu has durability issues, Pearson struggled last year, Walker can be a decent #4, Ray was terrible last year and so was Matz.

 

[Hoverhand]

I wouldn't be too surprised if the Jays had people leak to the media that they were close to reaching their budget. Helps to temper previously high expectations as it grows less likely each day that they're going fulfill their 2/4 promise.

I've seen arguments that Springer counts as 1 elite and that Semien/Walker would qualify as two "very goods" but that feels like kind've a cop out doesn't it?

Semien is a very nice piece but has only exceeded an 100 wRC+ once. I haven't look into the distance/launch angles of his homeruns from the past few years but with the balls being de-juiced, he'll have an even harder time eclipsing that number again. On top of that, he's playing a less valuable position than he has in the past.

I've obviously been more critical of management than the average poster here but I will proudly eat my words and give proper praise if they land a Kyle Hendricks type. Until then I'd consider myself frustrated and that budget report from Mitchell irked me very much.

 

[Discoverer]

I wouldn't be too surprised if the Jays had people leak to the media that they were close to reaching their budget. Helps to temper previously high expectations as it grows less likely each day that they're going fulfill their 2/4 promise.

I've seen arguments that Springer counts as 1 elite and that Semien/Walker would qualify as two "very goods" but that feels like kind've a cop out doesn't it?

Semien is a very nice piece but has only exceeded an 100 wRC+ once. I haven't look into the distance/launch angles of his homeruns from the past few years but with the balls being de-juiced, he'll have an even harder time eclipsing that number again. On top of that, he's playing a less valuable position than he has in the past.

I've obviously been more critical of management than the average poster here but I will proudly eat my words and give proper praise if they land a Kyle Hendricks type. Until then I'd consider myself frustrated and that budget report from Mitchell irked me very much.

Mitchell didn't actually "report" anything, though. He speculated based on some really weird evidence that didn't actually make much sense.

As for the 2/4 thing... no one promised anything. Shapiro was asked about making the team better and mentioned it as a couple examples of how it could happen. But even if he had promised it, I can't imagine looking at one elite player and two very good players as a "cop out".

Edit: I just re-read and realized your argument may be more that Semien and Walker aren't "very good", which I suppose is fair. I'm not sure how I feel about Walker, and I think he's more just "good". But Steamer projects Semien to be the 35th best position player in baseball in 2021. ZiPS has him 26th, tied with Springer and just ahead of Yelich, Machado, and Arenado. Based on projections, you could argue he's closer to "elite" than just "very good".

 

[Hoverhand]

Mitchell didn't actually "report" anything, though. He speculated based on some really weird evidence that didn't actually make much sense.

As for the 2/4 thing... no one promised anything. Shapiro was asked about making the team better and mentioned it as a couple examples of how it could happen. But even if he had promised it, I can't imagine looking at one elite player and two very good players as a "cop out".

I mean that goes to my second point, where are the two very good players? Even if we count Semien, Odorizzi has had one sub-4 ERA season since 2016 and Walker has rarely been healthy.

 

[Ale Brew]

I mean that goes to my second point, where are the two very good players? Even if we count Semien, Odorizzi has had one sub-4 ERA season since 2016 and Walker has rarely been healthy.

Semien and Yates are two very good players. Springer is arguably the top free agent of the offseason.
I’d love to add at least another starter (or two) plus a Rosenthal, but they’ve already delivered on what they said they’d do.

 

[phillipmike]

I wouldn't be too surprised if the Jays had people leak to the media that they were close to reaching their budget. Helps to temper previously high expectations as it grows less likely each day that they're going fulfill their 2/4 promise.

I've seen arguments that Springer counts as 1 elite and that Semien/Walker would qualify as two "very goods" but that feels like kind've a cop out doesn't it?

Semien is a very nice piece but has only exceeded an 100 wRC+ once. I haven't look into the distance/launch angles of his homeruns from the past few years but with the balls being de-juiced, he'll have an even harder time eclipsing that number again. On top of that, he's playing a less valuable position than he has in the past.

I've obviously been more critical of management than the average poster here but I will proudly eat my words and give proper praise if they land a Kyle Hendricks type. Until then I'd consider myself frustrated and that budget report from Mitchell irked me very much.

Could also serve as a message to the agents of Odorizzi, Walker, Porcello and others, you have our best offers, take it now before we sign someone else and there is less.

I still think they are waiting on a trade to clear roster spots for Panik and Liriano and in that trade they moving 40 man roster players and potentially getting a pitcher back.

 

[Discoverer]

I mean that goes to my second point, where are the two very good players? Even if we count Semien, Odorizzi has had one sub-4 ERA season since 2016 and Walker has rarely been healthy.

Yeah, I edited my post to add my thoughts on Semien. I think he's somewhere between "very good" and "elite". There are some questionmarks there, for sure, but I think Jays fans are understating the kind of impact player he's capable of being.