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Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season IV: Off-season progression! (Lockout over: Jays acquire Chapman for 4 prospects!)

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This is a lockout over nothing really. If the owners were negotiating in good faith there is no road block issue that should impact the season. The would rather lose games and break the union then come to a deal where the players might get a win or two and have a full season.
 
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Pretty obvious why the players batted this down but it's also incredibly telling that the ownership groups in Oakland, Tampa, Kansas City, and Baltimore were like a-okay with this.
 
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Hoverhand said:


Pretty obvious why the players batted this down but it's also incredibly telling that the ownership groups in Oakland, Tampa, Kansas City, and Baltimore were like a-okay with this.
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A salary cap -- soft or hard -- on the ceiling should lead to a punitive salary floor for the low payroll teams. They can't have their cake and eat it too by capping the big market spenders while still getting away with a skimpy payroll.

(I think the same should occur and apply to the NHL and its salary cap)
 
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Hoverhand said:


Pretty obvious why the players batted this down but it's also incredibly telling that the ownership groups in Oakland, Tampa, Kansas City, and Baltimore were like a-okay with this.
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It's like the players can't do math. The average payroll right now is about 114M, which would be status quo at 7 teams paying the max and the rest paying the min. And that's before trying to negotiate a higher ceiling.
 
TheBeastCoast said:
This is a lockout over nothing really. If the owners were negotiating in good faith there is no road block issue that should impact the season. The would rather lose games and break the union then come to a deal where the players might get a win or two and have a full season.
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Pretty sure if they could extend the old CBA the owners would have no problem continuing with how things were going. I don't think it's about breaking the union it's about not giving into them with everything they want.
 
4:29 pm: The Jays also had interest in Gray and Castillo before the lockout, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. That’s hardly a surprise, given that all three Cincinnati arms figure to draw plenty of attention from rival clubs whenever the transactions freeze ends.

12:51 pm: The Blue Jays had Tyler Mahle on their radar as a trade target before the lockout, as TSN’s Scott Mitchell hears from a source that the Jays “were very interested” in the Reds right-hander. The exact timing of the Jays’ interest isn’t specified, or whether or not the club may have moved on from big-ticket pitching acquisitions after signing Kevin Gausman.
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Keith Law on Kevin Smith's Top 100 ranking: “It’s very real. I had a scout text me in June just raving about what he was seeing. He put him in his report as an ‘above average regular’ in the big leagues….he should be an everyday player for the Jays this year”.

Hear that Cleveland? We can give you Smith, Biggio, Gurriel and McGuire for Ramirez. You will take it and like it.
 
phillipmike said:
Keith Law on Kevin Smith's Top 100 ranking: “It’s very real. I had a scout text me in June just raving about what he was seeing. He put him in his report as an ‘above average regular’ in the big leagues….he should be an everyday player for the Jays this year”.

Hear that Cleveland? We can give you Smith, Biggio, Gurriel and McGuire for Ramirez. You will take it and like it.
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Once the CBA is settled, it's phillipmike shower time. lol
 
Let’s Sign Some Hitters!
Kris Bryant to the Blue Jays – Four years, $90 million

This was a tough one for me. From a projection standpoint, Kris Bryant’s in a bit of a squeeze. He’s now on the wrong side of 30, and while 2021 was a solid bounce-back season, it didn’t restore him to his peak levels of offense. He’s already showing some signs of defensive decline at third, meaning he may see more time in left field in coming seasons. So he needs a home that can actually value his ability to play both positions, and since I think it’ll take a bigger deal to land him than ZiPS projects is prudent, he needs a team in win-now mode. So let’s send KB to the Blue Jays, even if he’s not related to a former major leaguer. I guess we can call him a long-lost Iorg if it makes the Jays feel better.

ZiPS Projection – Kris Bryant
YearBAOBPSLGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSBOPS+DRWAR
2022.264.353.489515851363122777597127-73.0
2023.262.351.487485791273022572566126-82.6
2024.259.346.469467731212822266526120-92.0
2025.254.340.447445671132521960485113-101.4
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
ZiPS only wants to give Bryant $67 million, which I don’t think closes the deal, hence a team in a mood to be aggressive. After being the losing squad in the AL East’s four-team melee in 2021, the Jays may be that club. They have decent options at third and in left in Santiago Espinal and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., but neither should be written into the lineup with permanent marker. Gurriel had a rather unimpressive 2021, and Espinal’s breakout was quite surprising. Even if both players work out marvelously, you can configure the lineup to have room for all three of these players in addition to Teoscar Hernández, as I doubt anyone’s putting all their eggs into Randal Grichuk’s basket. The matchup isn’t even all that weird; there were some whispers that the Jays were interested in Bryant last summer. Giving up money rather than prospects has its advantages.

So where should Nick Castellanos go? Or Anthony Rizzo? There’s still more work to be done, so roll up your sleeves, grab your money shovel, and let us know where you want to send some free agents in the comments! You can’t expect me to give away hundreds of millions of dollars all on my own. And keep an eye out next week, when we find homes for some of the remaining free agent pitchers.
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I'm not a Bryant fan but this isnt a bad deal. $22.5M per year for a 3 WAR 3B. Ideally you get him on 3 years but 4 isnt bad. If Schwarber gets $80M and Bryant is only getting $90M when he almost has triple the career WAR, then it doesnt seem like a bad gamble.

Some of these signings are a bit low;

Carlos Correa to the Angels – Seven years, $240 million
Freddie Freeman to the Padres – Five years, $150 million
Trevor Story to the Yankees – Five years, $130 million
Michael Conforto to the Phillies – Two years, $35 million
Kyle Schwarber to the Brewers – Four years, $80 million

Im not a Correra fan but thats a gamble i would take for his aged 27-33 seasons. Again if Seager is getting 10 years, Correra is getting at least that.

Freeman isnt a bad on either, that deal should age well for at least 3 years. The issue is years 4 and 5. I go back on forth on Story but for 5 years he only has value at SS and with Bo we dont need him.

Conforto would be a solid gamble if we got rid of Grichuk's deal but i doubt we go their especially with a loss of picks. Schwarber is a perfect bat for the Jays but 4 years is too much for a DH and $80M is a lot for 1 good season.
 
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Baseball Prospectus AL East Projected Standings
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phillipmike said:
Let’s Sign Some Hitters!


I'm not a Bryant fan but this isnt a bad deal. $22.5M per year for a 3 WAR 3B. Ideally you get him on 3 years but 4 isnt bad. If Schwarber gets $80M and Bryant is only getting $90M when he almost has triple the career WAR, then it doesnt seem like a bad gamble.

Some of these signings are a bit low;

Carlos Correa to the Angels – Seven years, $240 million
Freddie Freeman to the Padres – Five years, $150 million
Trevor Story to the Yankees – Five years, $130 million
Michael Conforto to the Phillies – Two years, $35 million
Kyle Schwarber to the Brewers – Four years, $80 million

Im not a Correra fan but thats a gamble i would take for his aged 27-33 seasons. Again if Seager is getting 10 years, Correra is getting at least that.

Freeman isnt a bad on either, that deal should age well for at least 3 years. The issue is years 4 and 5. I go back on forth on Story but for 5 years he only has value at SS and with Bo we dont need him.

Conforto would be a solid gamble if we got rid of Grichuk's deal but i doubt we go their especially with a loss of picks. Schwarber is a perfect bat for the Jays but 4 years is too much for a DH and $80M is a lot for 1 good season.
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I'm very interested in Conforto. He's the lefty bat that we need at the top of the order right between Springer and Gurrerro. He's no Jose Ramirez but he could be close to that good with the bat if he rebounds and we keep all of our prized assets in Moreno, Kirk, Martinez etc. Also if we sign Conforto I would seriously consider giving Moreno and Gurriel Jr. reps at 3B and then you still have Espinal as 3B cover. I feel Gurriel isn't so good at LF that we can't move him around. He wasn't good enough to play up the middle as a SS/2B but with his height and lateral quickness and good arm it seems like he would project well for 3B.
 
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If the lockout goes into the season minor league baseball starts on time correct? But they can't use the guys on the 40 man roster? So guys like Moreno and Groshans just have to sit around and wait despite their teams playing baseball? Then guys like Samad Taylor get to play with the Jays organization until an agreement is reached the rule 5 is held and they get taken away mid season? Is any of that incorrect?

What a weird situation that would be
 
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