Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season IV: Off-season progression! (Lockout over: Jays acquire Chapman for 4 prospects!)

[kb]

MVP 05 have it around somewhere, loved that game!

Nothing beats Commodore 64 Summer Games!!

I'll show myself out now. lol

 

[Cleetus]

Nothing beats Commodore 64 Summer Games!!

I'll show myself out now. lol

 

[dredeye]

Like was said earlier, the easy way to fix the issues with compo picks is that teams who lose significant players to free agency still get bonus compensatory picks but remove the loss of picks for signing big free agents. Now teams don't have to be gunshy about signing marquee FAs because of any sort of penalty while teams that struggle to keep their players still get the extra picks necessary to restock the cupboard.

Yea that’s a fair way of doing it without penalizing the players.

 

[kb]

Like was said earlier, the easy way to fix the issues with compo picks is that teams who lose significant players to free agency still get bonus compensatory picks but remove the loss of picks for signing big free agents. Now teams don't have to be gunshy about signing marquee FAs because of any sort of penalty while teams that struggle to keep their players still get the extra picks necessary to restock the cupboard.

It seems so obvious. It helps to offset the loss of a key player without penalizing the signing team. So a team like Oakland doesn't get boned for being a MLB farm team. Lessens the divide between the haves and the have nots. Helps keep the competitive balance without arbitrary rules/measures.

Opportunity lost IMO.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Always felt AL teams had a bit of a disadvantage playing in NL parks since they’re not as used to playing with a pitcher hitting.

Happy to see that finally change.

 

[theaub]

Hey spring training starts today

Oh

 

[Discoverer]

Blue Jays signed RHP Ben Baggett to a minor league contract.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[TGB]

Updates from the CBA update presser available at any MLB website. Interesting ideas:

-Now only those teams above the tax threshold have to deal with compensatory picks for signing free agents.

-Teams that promote their best prospects sooner now get bonus picks if those players play well.

 

[thehockeysong]

Updates from the CBA update presser available at any MLB website. Interesting ideas:

-Now only those teams above the tax threshold have to deal with compensatory picks for signing free agents.

-Teams that promote their best prospects sooner now get bonus picks if those players play well.

This happening immediately after we promote a wave of stars is very Blue Jays luck

 

[Woodman19]

This happening immediately after we promote a wave of stars is very Blue Jays luck

Comp picks have been fairly kind to us of late though.

 

[thehockeysong]

Comp picks have been fairly kind to us of late though.

Losing Semien and Ray with no comp would I think negate that a bit. MVP candidate and Cy Young winner for nothing is pretty rough. Presuming of course that this is actually how it would play out

 

[Morgs]

Losing Semien and Ray with no comp would I think negate that a bit. MVP candidate and Cy Young winner for nothing is pretty rough. Presuming of course that this is actually how it would play out

They did both sign prior to the the lockout. Means the rules *should* [hopefully] be on the table. Not like it affected the teams decision and the players from getting paid. Really does suck though if they aren't. That'd be a massive pool for next year.

 

[Woodman19]

Yeah I would assume the previous CBA rules would apply those those since they signed beforehand but I guess if there is a team who's going to get shafted it's us.

 

[aingefan]

This happening immediately after we promote a wave of stars is very Blue Jays luck

How is the bolded supposed to work?

 

[phillipmike]

I cant see a situation where the Jays dont get picks for Ray and Semien even if they change the system. There is kind of a precedent already established for this.

Teams Signing Type A Relievers Won’t Forfeit Picks

On November 11, 2011: The Phillies signed Jonathan Papelbon to a 5 year deal. At the time the Phillies would lose their first round pick and the Red Sox would get a compensation pick after the first round.

On November 19, 2011: The MLB announced that teams that sign the remaining Type A relievers will not be forced to surrender draft picks. The measure is not retroactive, however, meaning that the Phillies will still surrender their first-round pick for signing Jonathan Papelbon.

So the Red Sox gain a pick and Philly lost one even though the rules changed.

Under the new CBA, teams that sign the remaining Type A relievers will not be forced to surrender draft picks, a source tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). The teams that sign those relievers and certain other Type A free agents will not forfeit draft picks but the teams that lose those players will still receive compensatory picks (from Twitter).

This means teams can sign Ryan Madson, Francisco Rodriguez, Heath Bell, and other top relievers this offseason without penalty. The measure is not retroactive, however, meaning that the Phillies will still surrender their first-round pick for signing Jonathan Papelbon. For a full list of this offseason's free agents, including their Type A/B designation, check out MLBTR's free agent tracker.

Furthermore, the new CBA will do away with the Elias rankings altogether starting next season, Rosenthal tweets. Under the new system, the top free agents will be subject to compensation if teams make them qualifying offers north of $12MM.

 

[hoc123]

I cant see a situation where the Jays dont get picks for Ray and Semien even if they change the system. There is kind of a precedent already established for this.

Teams Signing Type A Relievers Won’t Forfeit Picks

On November 11, 2011: The Phillies signed Jonathan Papelbon to a 5 year deal. At the time the Phillies would lose their first round pick and the Red Sox would get a compensation pick after the first round.

On November 19, 2011: The MLB announced that teams that sign the remaining Type A relievers will not be forced to surrender draft picks. The measure is not retroactive, however, meaning that the Phillies will still surrender their first-round pick for signing Jonathan Papelbon.

So the Red Sox gain a pick and Philly lost one even though the rules changed.

Same thing happened in the 2017-18 offseason, they aren’t going to retroactively change the compensation rules for this free agency, any changes will start next offseason.

 

[thehockeysong]

I cant see a situation where the Jays dont get picks for Ray and Semien even if they change the system. There is kind of a precedent already established for this.

Teams Signing Type A Relievers Won’t Forfeit Picks

On November 11, 2011: The Phillies signed Jonathan Papelbon to a 5 year deal. At the time the Phillies would lose their first round pick and the Red Sox would get a compensation pick after the first round.

On November 19, 2011: The MLB announced that teams that sign the remaining Type A relievers will not be forced to surrender draft picks. The measure is not retroactive, however, meaning that the Phillies will still surrender their first-round pick for signing Jonathan Papelbon.

So the Red Sox gain a pick and Philly lost one even though the rules changed.

Good research! Thanks - that's great if that happens. The extra picks will help restock the cupboard for (hopefully) some future playoff runs

 

[Canada4Gold]

They obviously won't change the rules for this offseason since teams have already acted with the plan for compensation picks. Can you imagine if we gave a QO to Matz and he accepted it only to find out that it was no reward offer since we couldn't get the pick regardless. That's actually the situation the Giants would be in with Brandon Belt. You gave a guy an offer risking he wouldn't accept in hopes to get a pick that ended up never existing? I would riot.

 

[weems]

Gabriel Moreno 2021 highlights



Kiley McDaniels also just realsed his top 100 prospects for 2022 and Moreno is ranked #11
Kiley McDaniel's top 100 MLB prospects for 2022

 

[Bjindaho]

They obviously won't change the rules for this offseason since teams have already acted with the plan for compensation picks. Can you imagine if we gave a QO to Matz and he accepted it only to find out that it was no reward offer since we couldn't get the pick regardless. That's actually the situation the Giants would be in with Brandon Belt. You gave a guy an offer risking he wouldn't accept in hopes to get a pick that ended up never existing? I would riot.

Technically, the rules could change for any signings going forward. If the Jays sign qualified players, there is no guarantee that we would lose picks (that would depend on the CBA). OTOH, the picks for Semien and Ray cannot be retroactively removed.

 

[Discoverer]

Gabriel Moreno 2021 highlights



Kiley McDaniels also just realsed his top 100 prospects for 2022 and Moreno is ranked #11
Kiley McDaniel's top 100 MLB prospects for 2022

Damn, he's also got Orelvis at 16. I'm pretty sure everywhere else has had him in the middle of the Top 100 so far.

 

[phillipmike]

Blue Jays' top 20 prospects for 2022: Keith Law ranks Toronto's farm system

Blue Jays Top 20:

1. Gabriel Moreno, C
2. Orelvis Martinez, SS
3. Kevin Smith, SS
4. Jordan Groshans, 3B
5. Gunnar Hoglund, LHP
6. Leo Jimenez, SS
7. Manuel Beltre, SS/2B
8. Sem Robberse, RHP
9. Ricky Tiedemann, RHP
10. Otto Lopez, 2B/OF
11. Rikelbin De Castro, SS/2B
12. Estiven Machado, 2B
13. Miguel Hiraldo, 2B/3B
14. Dasan Brown, OF
15. Eric Pardinho, RHP
16. CJ Van Eyk, RHP
17. Samad Taylor, 2B
18. Adam Kloffenstein, RHP
19. Irv Carter, RHP
20. Hayden Juenger, RHP

2022 impact
[Kevin] Smith should be on the big-league roster as the starter at second or third. [Otto] Lopez could get some time as a utility infielder.

 

[phillipmike]

Kiley McDaniel's top 100 MLB prospects for 2022

11. Gabriel Moreno, C, Toronto Blue Jays

Age: 22 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Hit: 50/60, Game Power: 45/45, Raw Power: 50/50, Speed: 50/50, Fielding: 45/50, Throwing: 55/55
Type: Hit-over-power catcher who's good at everything
Reminds me of: There isn't a great one, but there's some mid-20s version of J.T. Realmutoin there
Moreno was 124th on last year's list as he was one of the few minor leaguers clearly trending up, even with the cheesecloth noncompetitive games put over his performance. He took it to another level in 2021, crushing Double-A as a 21-year-old, then getting three games into a promotion at Triple-A before he broke his thumb. Moreno went to the Venezuelan Winter League in 2020 and he returned there this winter, along with playing in the Arizona Fall League to make up for lost reps, and he kept mashing there as well.
There are elements of Keibert Ruiz in the hit tool, with plus-plus bat control but an approach that undercuts that ability a bit. Like Ruiz, he has solid, but not fantastic power that his overall approach also undercuts a bit. I prefer him to Ruiz due to the overall feel for hitting and athletic ability, which make it much easier to project into the future. I mentioned in last year's report that, before his offensive breakout, Moreno is solid behind the plate but could also handle some other positions. That won't be an issue now as Moreno looks to be the best of a crowded group of 40-man roster potential catchers that includes Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Reese McGuire. These tool grades might not light you up, but if Moreno hits these projections, he'd be on the top five-to-seven catchers in the league, possibly as soon as next year.

16. Orelvis Martinez, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

Age: 20 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Hit: 30/50, Game Power: 35/65, Raw Power: 65/70, Speed: 50/45, Fielding:35/45, Throwing: 55/55
Type: Young shortstop/third base tweener who will mash
Reminds me of: No perfect big league comparison, but there's some Bo Bichette to how he hits
Martinez was in the top tier in the loaded 2018 international class, getting the top bonus of the 16-year-olds of the group at $3.5 million. The sales pitch was a shortstop/third baseman fit, outlandish bat speed, big power projection and some feel for hitting. Safe to say I underestimated the feel for in-game hitting given Martinez's 2021 season. At age 19 the whole year, split across both A-ball levels, he hit 28 homers with a solid walk rate and a manageable mid-20s strikeout rate. And he was playing mostly shortstop the whole time, and the underlying stats like exit velo also back this up.
I looked up his low-A advanced data since it's housed on a version of MLB's site as the games happened on Hawk-Eye in spring training stadiums. There's a number of 108-110 mph exit velos on fly balls, here's a notable one (just sort the EV column) to see a homer that was 109.1 at a 36-degree launch angle. For context that is totally ridiculous in-game exit velo on a fly ball for a teenager, much less doing it regularly. There's maybe a half-dozen players capable of doing that at that age who aren't playing first base or corner outfield.
The shortstop thing probably won't work, and in that event he'll slide over to third base, where he'll be at least average defensively, with an above-average arm. There are some risk points offensively as hitting for power is the hardest thing to do on a baseball field, particularly when the pitcher has circled your name on the lineup. Martinez's profile is similar to Marco Luciano's (see his blurb below*), so there are some similar risks, but I think Martinez has a little more feel to hit and clearly has more defensive ability, so I feel better that he can earn this spot or better next season.

Austin Martin is ranked 57 btw.

Nice to see two Jays so high, especially Orelvis. A bit too high for me. But I doubt their are 3 catchers better than Moreno. Gabby should be in the top 7-8.

Could be a case for more Jays at the end of the list but it isn’t egregious in my eyes. Groshans needs more power and Hoglund is hurt. Smith isn’t a top 100 prospect, but thank you Keith Law.

However there are some players in this list that make you scratch your head. But Kiley is the expert.

Baltimore’s system is loaded. Waiting for them to screw it up.

 

[bigbabybuda]

I know hes basically a consensus top 10 prospect in baseball but I feel like Moreno might be even too low. He seems like he should be top 3 everywhere. Cathers with his athleticism who rake like that across every league at 21 just dont ever come around.

Im so glad he was reportedly taken outta any trade conversation last year at the deadline. Only Vlady and maybe Olerud I was more sure about as a prospect for the jays in the last 30 years.