Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition II - Winter Meeting Madness

[Kurtz]

The plan is for him to spell off Guerrero for maybe 25-30 starts, and get the lions share of starts at DH against righties. Keeps both catchers fresh.

Sounds like there will be enough AB's there.

Well, let's do the math.

There are 162 DH games available.

Kirk had 51 starts at DH last year. Reasonable to assume that stays the same.
Springer had 40 DH starts. Again, reasonable to assume that's replicated.
Vlad had 32 DH starts. Let's keep that the same.
39 DH starts went to other players. Let's assume Belt gets all of those.

So we're looking at 30 starts at 1B and 39 at DH, if he's healthy. 69 starts in total. Teo started 131 games last year.

 

[Bjindaho]

He doesn't need to start a massive number of games.
Even if he starts 60, he's still available to PH 120 times as opponents put a righty in there.

 

[Kurtz]

Sure.

Last year Vlad started 126 games at 1B. That leaves 36 for Belt. I'll round up a few to 40 on the assumption that having an actual established 1B to fill in makes them more comfortable not having Vlad there.

Those three combined for 120 games at DH. There's another 40, though I would peg him for quite a few more, with those guys getting more time off to stay rested instead of having so many DH days.

That gets him to 80+ before factoring in any potential injury to Springer/Vlad/Kirk/Jansen that would open up more DH time.

My expectation, assuming he's not hurt and performs relatively well, is that he starts pretty much every day against righties.

Your math doesn't add up.

71% of MLB starters are righties. That's 115 games/season. You've projected 80 starts for Belt. Yes, there's elevated injury risk for Springer and Kirk, but even more so for Belt, so whatever gains he may see from the former 2 being injured are likely to balance out by the games he himself misses.

He doesn't need to start a massive number of games.
Even if he starts 60, he's still available to PH 120 times as opponents put a righty in there.

Agreed, but that's 1 at bat instead of the 4-5 he'd see as a starter.


Again, I like the versatility we gain if Belt is healthy, but to expect him to replace Teo's offense, who started 130-140 games/season is nuts.

 

[kb]

Well, let's do the math.

There are 162 DH games available.

Kirk had 51 starts at DH last year. Reasonable to assume that stays the same.
Springer had 40 DH starts. Again, reasonable to assume that's replicated.
Vlad had 32 DH starts. Let's keep that the same.
39 DH starts went to other players. Let's assume Belt gets all of those.

So we're looking at 30 starts at 1B and 39 at DH, if he's healthy. 69 starts in total. Teo started 131 games last year.

I don't think that Belt will be on the bench all that much when facing righties. That's just me, it doesn't make sense to play (Belt's health permitting) batters with poorer results than Belt vs righties. Kirk wore down and stopped hitting after the allstar game, so running that situation back is far from ideal when you have Belt. Even with 50 DH days. I would expect Belt to eat into the righties portion of his DH days.

And remember that Springer playing CF with this broken down body and injuries was the main reason for more DH reps last season, not load management. He couldn't throw at times. If he's healthy, they won't rest him in the field quite as much. He will still miss time, and will probably get 20 DH days in addition.

Belt will get 30-35 starts at 1B, taking perhaps half of Kirk's DH starts (25), half of Springers (15-20), and 40 of the other.

That at the upper end is 120 games. I would expect at least the 100 at the lower end if he is healthy.

There are plenty of AB's for everyone. Look at Tapia last season.

 

[Discoverer]

Your math doesn't add up.

71% of MLB starters are righties. That's 115 games/season. You've projected 80 starts for Belt. Yes, there's elevated injury risk for Springer and Kirk, but even more so for Belt, so whatever gains he may see from the former 2 being injured are likely to balance out by the games he himself misses.



Agreed, but that's 1 at bat instead of the 4-5 he'd see as a starter.

The math to get to 80 was based on last year's distribution. I also specifically said I expected him to play more than that because having a good hitter available means they'll be more comfortable sitting Vlad/Springer/Kirk more often (since it won't mean going to Tapia/Zimmer/Collins/whoever).

"Pretty much every day against righties" would have him start something like 100 games. That seems reasonable (again, assuming he's healthy).

 

[Suntouchable13]

The Red Sox have to defer Devers' salary? What the hell? I thought they were overflowing with cash.

 

[Kurtz]

I don't think that Belt will be on the bench all that much when facing righties. That's just me, it doesn't make sense to play (Belt's health permitting) batters with poorer results than Belt vs righties. Kirk wore down and stopped hitting after the allstar game, so running that situation back is far from ideal when you have Belt. Even with 50 DH days. I would expect Belt to eat into the righties portion of his DH days.

And remember that Springer playing CF with this broken down body and injuries was the main reason for more DH reps last season, not load management. He couldn't throw at times. If he's healthy, they won't rest him in the field quite as much. He will still miss time, and will probably get 20 DH days in addition.

Belt will get 30-35 starts at 1B, taking perhaps half of Kirk's DH starts (25), half of Springers (15-20), and 40 of the other.

That at the upper end is 120 games. I would expect at least the 100 at the lower end if he is healthy.

There are plenty of AB's for everyone. Look at Tapia last season.

Kirk won't see more than 60-80 games behind the plate. So if you're only allocating 25 DH games to him, then you're wasting Kirk's bat.

Springer not only had 40 DH games last year, but 38 games the year before. If we're being honest with ourselves, I think we have to admit that the guy is made out of glass and will need to see a steady stream of DH days even as a RF.

Tapia didn't get his ABs as a DH - he got his ABs in the OF. There are plenty ABs available in the OF today too, unfortunately Belt can no longer play the position.

Again, we're not debating the usefulness of Belt. We're debating Wilner's insane remark that Belt replaces Teo's bat. There is only one scenario where Belt would even have the opportunity to do this, and that scenario would be terrible for the Jays (Vlad injury).

 

[BertCorbeau]

My understanding was that the Jays were initially looking for an OF who was also a lefty.. but I assume that the Belt signing opens up the options for just the best option out there?

 

[Discoverer]

Kirk won't see more than 60-80 games behind the plate. So if you're only allocating 25 DH games to him, then you're wasting Kirk's bat.

Springer not only had 40 DH games last year, but 38 games the year before. If we're being honest with ourselves, I think we have to admit that the guy is made out of glass and will need to see a steady stream of DH days even as a RF.

Tapia didn't get his ABs as a DH - he got his ABs in the OF. There are plenty ABs available in the OF today too, unfortunately Belt can no longer play the position.

Are you expecting a healthy season from Jansen? Because if that cuts into Belt's playing time I would be thrilled.

 

[kb]

Kirk won't see more than 60-80 games behind the plate. So if you're only allocating 25 DH games to him, then you're wasting Kirk's bat.

Springer not only had 40 DH games last year, but 38 games the year before. If we're being honest with ourselves, I think we have to admit that the guy is made out of glass and will need to see a steady stream of DH days even as a RF.

Tapia didn't get his ABs as a DH - he got his ABs in the OF. There are plenty ABs available in the OF today too, unfortunately Belt can no longer play the position.

Again, we're not debating the usefulness of Belt. We're debating Wilner's insane remark that Belt replaces Teo's bat. There is only one scenario where Belt would even have the opportunity to do this, and that scenario would be terrible for the Jays (Vlad injury).

How is keeping Kirk fresh after him fading noticeably down the stretch "wasting his bat" when Belt hits righties at a much higher clip when he's healthy? Genuinely curious on that logic. The fact that Kirk hits well does not mean that someone who hits righties better should be sitting for him. Kirk needs load management - we all saw it down the stretch. Belt is simply a better hitter vs righties. Getting Belt 20 of his 50 DH days still means around 110-120 games for Kirk, which might keep him hitting without the precarious second half drop we saw last season.

The Tapia point was that no one expected him to play that much, but yet.....he got way over 400 AB's. I expect similar for Belt.

Springer was playing injured and it was his throwing elbow. He's apparently healthy now. I can see them giving him a full day off each week, and another day at DH. So Springer plays 140 or so games, with 20 being at DH. That's 20 for Belt. If Springer is made of glass, Belt will even get more AB's because why would you have an injured player hitting at DH ahead of Belt?

Guerrero gets 30 DH days, so Belt gets 30 there. 40 days were covered by others.

Again, that puts Belt at around 110 starts. Round it down to 90-100 if you must because of overlap, but he's still going to get his 400+ ABs.

 

[Canada4Gold]

 

[Eyedea]

Speaking purely in terms of offensive value, Belt contributed the same amount offensively as Teo did in 2021 despite having 200 less PAs. His 2020 shortened season was also better than Teo’s 2022 (~350 PA difference). So yes, there is still potential for him to produce as much if not more on offence despite playing less games. Right now projections separate them by around a full win in overall offensive value, but with Teo’s declining skillset (power down, GBs up, whiffs a lot) I’m still not sure how effective he’ll be in Seattle.

 

[Woodman19]

I hate it less now that we moved on from our subpar defensive players with bats since we now have a place to stash a good bat at DH part time. It would have been torture to have to see someone like Belt if we still had Gurriel, and Teoscar having regular PA's with Springer in CF

 

[DonnyNucker]

Sure doesn’t sound like Belt is playing 60 games. If he is relatively healthy I suspect he starts 100 +. Nice to finally have bench options that aren’t brutal w the bat. Jays have added a bunch of lefties that should benefit with the shift rules. Will be fascinating to see how this all Comes together

 

[Woodman19]

Sure doesn’t sound like Belt is playing 60 games. If he is relatively healthy I suspect he starts 100 +. Nice to finally have bench options that aren’t brutal w the bat. Jays have added a bunch of lefties that should benefit with the shift rules. Will be fascinating to see how this all Comes together

Wonder if they will quasi platoon him with someone like Kirk. Kirk starts at DH against LHP and Belt against RHP while Kirk still being able to start against RHP as well while playing at C. Although I guess that will still fall to a rotating DH vs. LHP for guys like Springer to get days off the field.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Boston deferring $75M to Rafael Devers, paying through 2043

BOSTON (AP) — Rafael Devers has $75 million in deferred salaries in his new contract with the Boston Red Sox, who committed $331 million over 11 seasons to the third baseman but will not fully pay the money until 2043.

apnews.com

BOSTON (AP) — Rafael Devers has $75 million in deferred salaries in his new contract with the Boston Red Sox, who committed $331 million over 11 seasons to the third baseman but will not fully pay the money until 2043.

Boston on Wednesday finalized a 10-year contract worth $313.5 million that covers 2024-33 and follows a $17.5 million, one-year agreement reached on Jan. 3.

Devers’ long-term deal includes a $20 million signing bonus, of which $5 million is payable each February from 2023-26.

He gets salaries of $27.5 million a year from 2024-26, $31 million annually from 2027-30 and $29 million per season from 2031-33.

In each season of the long-term deal, $7.5 million will be deferred. The money will be payable 10 years after the season in which is is earned, half on Feb. 1 and half on Nov. 30.

Devers would receive a $2 million assignment bonus if traded, payable by the receiving team.

Devers was the AL’s starting All-Star third baseman each of the past two years. In 141 games last season, he batted .295 with 42 doubles, 27 home runs and 88 RBIs.

Boston hopes to bounce back after finishing last in the AL East at 78-84. The Red Sox won 92 games in 2021 and reached the AL Championship Series.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[dredeye]

The Red Sox have to defer Devers' salary? What the hell? I thought they were overflowing with cash.

It’s cheaper long term for them team to hold that money today and pay it in the future. Financially it’s smarter to spread it out. Think of it as an interest free loan

 

[Dr.Funk]

The Red Sox have to defer Devers' salary? What the hell? I thought they were overflowing with cash.

Making that deffered money the next owners problem

 

[BertCorbeau]

What OFers are available?

Can’t say I’m thrilled with the back end of the rotation right now

 

[djdev]

belt hit 29 homers in 97 games in 21' in the the NL west. he could hit 40 in his sleep here if hes actually healthy. this is a semian level upside signing imo.

 

[Kurtz]

Are you expecting a healthy season from Jansen? Because if that cuts into Belt's playing time I would be thrilled.

Danny missed 92 games last year and despite this, Kirk only made 78 starts at catcher. I do expect Jansen to miss less than that this year, yes.

 

[Kurtz]

How is keeping Kirk fresh after him fading noticeably down the stretch "wasting his bat" when Belt hits righties at a much higher clip when he's healthy? Genuinely curious on that logic. The fact that Kirk hits well does not mean that someone who hits righties better should be sitting for him. Kirk needs load management - we all saw it down the stretch. Belt is simply a better hitter vs righties. Getting Belt 20 of his 50 DH days still means around 110-120 games for Kirk, which might keep him hitting without the precarious second half drop we saw last season.

110-120 games for Kirk with only 30 of them at DH means you're expecting Kirk to start 80-90 games at catcher, while as you've noted he wore down last year despite playing only 78 games at C.

Kirk also had an ops of .797 against righties last year to Belt's .702, so I wouldn't automatically assume that Belt hits righties at a much higher clip. He's OPSing .840 against righties for his career, but at 35, I don't think we can expect him to regain his prime production. Meanwhile, it's reasonable to assume that Kirk will keep improving.

belt hit 29 homers in 97 games in 21' in the the NL west. he could hit 40 in his sleep here if hes actually healthy. this is a semian level upside signing imo.

Belt is averaging 22 homers/162 games for his career.

 

[Kurtz]

So I don't think the Jays have released the new park dimensions yet.

I've always been intrigued by the idea of building in unique dimensions into your park, and then constructing a lineup that excels in those dimensions. Sort of like the Yankees with their short right field or Bosox with the monster.

We've added two big pull hitters in Varsho and Belt and have tons of speed defensively in centre-left. It would make a lot of sense to bring in the right wall some and push out the left/centre wall out a bit.

 

[Ale Brew]

The renderings look pretty semetrical. Appears it may be a little deeper down the lines and to CF, but a bit shorter where the bullpens cut out.