Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition II - Winter Meeting Madness

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An estimate for Moreno for the next 6 years in WAR might be 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5 for 13.5 WAR total times 7 $/WAR(not sure what number they use) is 94.5 million. If we estimate his salary as 800k, 800k, 800k, 3 million, 6 million, 10 million that's 21.4 total subtracting that gives 73.1 in surplus.

If we guess Varsho at 4, 4, 4, 4 WAR that's 16 WAR times 7 million is 112. Salary estimate of 3.5, 6.5, 10, 15 which is 35 total. Subtracting that gives 77 surplus.

These aren't the actual values the site is using unlike my Chapman example.

Moreno's WAR estimates are lower because his range of possibilities still includes more lower floor values so the average is lower. But he's being paid less and has more control so almost reached Varsho in value in those estimates
This is great. I always use BTV.

As it relates to Varsho-Moreno, these 2 players will be linked together for a long time. One thing to consider is long term contract extensions beyond years of control. So if Moreno signed for all 6 years + an additional 6-8 years and Varsho bolts after 4, it's a major swing in value. Or vice-versa. It's hard to quantify that today though but that could be the determining factor of this trade 15 years down the line. It could come down to the guy who stays beyond his years of control.
 
I'm so torn still on this off-season. It seems like a bunch of good moves surrounded by a bunch of ... "is that it?" I know most people here are Leafs fans, but I'm a Habs fan. It reminds me when we signed Carey Price LONG TERM and Bergevin said "We're going for it!" even though we knew his contract would be bad in the back half... but he followed that up by playing hardball with Radulov and losing him. And then letting Markov walk without signing a replacement. This year's Jay's off-season reminds me of that.

* Teo trade was solid. No real complaints here. We needed a bullpen arm. And Adam Macko has some Canadian history going to school in Alberta. He's potentially the 2nd MLB pitcher (someday) to pitch in the Majors from Slovakia. Hopefully he's as good as his predecessor. Jack Quinn, the only Slovakian pitcher in MLB history, pitched 23 years in the big leagues. Macko is still gaining velocity from reports, so that's great to hear considering he's already averaging a 95mph fastball.

* The Varsho trade is excellent. Would I have rather traded Janssen? Yes, of course. But I don't think we were getting Varsho for Janssen + Lourdes, at least not with including another prospect. It had to be Kirk or Moreno. Kirk is Manoah's catcher, so you kind of just default to the prospect in Moreno.

* Kiermaier signing was excellent. Low risk with it only being one year. Still a very good defensive player when healthy. But this is where the issues start... WHEN HEALTHLY. He's played 9 years in the big leagues and only played 130 (or more) games once in his career. 4 of those seasons he hasn't even his 100 games. If that was our only injury risk, it wouldn't be a huge deal. But....

* George Springer's health. Even though he was relatively healthy last year, he still missed multiple games at different times. And he got hurt during the most important game in this teams recent history. Now, I know that's cause Bo wasn't thinking, but still. The two seasons prior, he was hurt for increasingly extended periods of time.

So ... this puts me at a strange feeling. If healthy? I think we're a much better team walking through the door than last year. However, you're asking a lot from two players who have had healthy seasons at a 50% clip in the last 6 years... it's pretty scary.

Yes, I know we have Cavan Biggio. He's a slightly above average fielder. And we also have Merrifeld, who is a below average fielder. But that doesn't scream confidence to me - and I like both of those players! Thankfully, Varsho can move to CF if both Springer and Kiermaier end up injured, but I just don't like heading into the season with so this kind of question mark.

I'd feel a lot more comfortable if we offered a similar deal that Kiermaier got to Jurickson Profar. He opted out of his contract with the Padres which would have paid him $7.5M with a mutual option for $10M next year. I think if we guaranteed that, he'd likely sign. 2 years, $18M. It gives us another option for DH as well. Profar is a below average fielder, so he'd be DHing mostly and just giving us OF coverage if needed. Biggio is good enough defensively to replace Profar late-game in those situations.
It's been a little stop and start. We got Chapman, but lost Semien. We got Gausman but lost Ray. We got Varsho and Swanson but lost Teoscar, Moreno and Gurriel. It's hard to take a big step forward when we're losing as much as we're gaining. I don't know if we're better or worse tbh. It feels about the same. I'm hoping we continue to add to our rotation and bullpen. Wouldn't mind another corner outfield bat either.
 
Baseball America Released our top 10 prospect list a few days ago:

1. Moreno
2. Tiedemann
3. Zulueta
4. Barriera
5. Barger
6. Martinez
7. Toman
8. Doughty
9. Juenger
10. Pearson

Interesting that Orelvis has fallen down to 6.
 

"I met with my surgeon before coming home, and I am right on schedule," Ryu said, according to Yonhap News Agency's Jeeho Yoo. "At this rate, I should be able to return immediately after the All-Star break (in July).

"I think I will start getting into rehab games in June. I will try to come back in July and put on good performances for my fans."

Could a healthy Ryu be the answer to our #5 SP need?
 
It's been a little stop and start. We got Chapman, but lost Semien. We got Gausman but lost Ray. We got Varsho and Swanson but lost Teoscar, Moreno and Gurriel. It's hard to take a big step forward when we're losing as much as we're gaining. I don't know if we're better or worse tbh. It feels about the same. I'm hoping we continue to add to our rotation and bullpen. Wouldn't mind another corner outfield bat either.
Losing Semien especially was a huge deal.

That guy is a special ball player
 
They offered Semien a 4 year deal, but he wanted to bet on himself. It takes two to Tango, and in this case, Semien was absolutely right to ask for a 1 year.
 
Baseball America Released our top 10 prospect list a few days ago:

1. Moreno
2. Tiedemann
3. Zulueta
4. Barriera
5. Barger
6. Martinez
7. Toman
8. Doughty
9. Juenger
10. Pearson

Interesting that Orelvis has fallen down to 6.
I still think people have cooled off way to much on Martinez then his actual performance deserves. Hopefully he shoves it down peoples throat this summer.
 
Baseball America Released our top 10 prospect list a few days ago:

1. Moreno
2. Tiedemann
3. Zulueta
4. Barriera
5. Barger
6. Martinez
7. Toman
8. Doughty
9. Juenger
10. Pearson

Interesting that Orelvis has fallen down to 6.
It’s so crazy that Pearson has been able to remain a prospect because of all the injuries. Martinez is falling hard. He’s going to need a big year


"I met with my surgeon before coming home, and I am right on schedule," Ryu said, according to Yonhap News Agency's Jeeho Yoo. "At this rate, I should be able to return immediately after the All-Star break (in July).

"I think I will start getting into rehab games in June. I will try to come back in July and put on good performances for my fans."

Could a healthy Ryu be the answer to our #5 SP need?
This is something I never would have expected. Essentially once they started talking about TJ for Ryu they immediately said that’s it for him as a blue Jay. If we got first year Ryu back mid season that would be huge for us. Maybe why they haven’t brought in a new 5th starter. Just need a place holder until mid season and see what Ryu can do
 

Wonder if they are credible, or just picking up the story from a week or two ago.

Not sure his 2022 season is repeatable, but if nothing else he adds depth. Would push both Kikuchi and White to relief roles. White has no options left either, so all but guarantees Pop to start in the minors as the pen would be jammed and he’s the only bubble guy with options. Barring an injury in spring, might even lose someone else (Richards or Merryweather?).

Perhaps could be a consolidation trade coming if they are going to keep adding to the pitching staff.
 
Baseball America Released our top 10 prospect list a few days ago:

1. Moreno
2. Tiedemann
3. Zulueta
4. Barriera
5. Barger
6. Martinez
7. Toman
8. Doughty
9. Juenger
10. Pearson

Interesting that Orelvis has fallen down to 6.
He does have a lot of swing and miss despite the ludicrous power in his bat. I'd personally have him at 3 after Tiedemann and Zulueta.
 
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I was looking at Orelvis' stats from last year and obviously, the power is there, and unfortunately the swing and miss, but I thought it was weird that his BABIP was only .217. He has average speed and that seems very low.
 
I was looking at Orelvis' stats from last year and obviously, the power is there, and unfortunately the swing and miss, but I thought it was weird that his BABIP was only .217. He has average speed and that seems very low.

He probably mashes balls right at guys. I am guessing he has high exit velocities?
 
Baseball America Released our top 10 prospect list a few days ago:

1. Moreno
2. Tiedemann
3. Zulueta
4. Barriera
5. Barger
6. Martinez
7. Toman
8. Doughty
9. Juenger
10. Pearson

Interesting that Orelvis has fallen down to 6.

It's an interesting ranking because proximity seems to play a heavy role in evaluating Jays prospects. Barriera and Toman are the only guys expected to be in A ball next season but feature in this rank primarily due to draft pedigree/stock. No Gabriel Martinez, no Dahian Santos, and no Adrian Pinto, though right now their potential/FV is probably in a similar tier as the Barger's and Juenger's.
 
Last season, the Blue Jays ranked 10th in baseball with a.753 OPS against left-handed pitchers, but they only hit 42 home runs, ranking 19th. Hernández’s .978 OPS versus southpaws in 2022 was the best on the club. He plays for Seattle now. Pollock’s .935 OPS versus LHPs in 2022 would restore the loss.
If they are willing to break the luxury tax this could make some sense.

 
If they are willing to break the luxury tax this could make some sense.


Not to toot my own horn, but Pollock is a target I mentioned after the Varsho trade broke, down to the 1/10 offer this writer also listed. I think you can still sell playing time in the OF and Toronto would be a good place to boost one's positional value to cash in the next offseason.
 
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