Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition II - Winter Meeting Madness

[Canada4Gold]

An estimate for Moreno for the next 6 years in WAR might be 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5 for 13.5 WAR total times 7 $/WAR(not sure what number they use) is 94.5 million. If we estimate his salary as 800k, 800k, 800k, 3 million, 6 million, 10 million that's 21.4 total subtracting that gives 73.1 in surplus.

If we guess Varsho at 4, 4, 4, 4 WAR that's 16 WAR times 7 million is 112. Salary estimate of 3.5, 6.5, 10, 15 which is 35 total. Subtracting that gives 77 surplus.

These aren't the actual values the site is using unlike my Chapman example.

Moreno's WAR estimates are lower because his range of possibilities still includes more lower floor values so the average is lower. But he's being paid less and has more control so almost reached Varsho in value in those estimates

 

[Discoverer]

If we had him on the MLB IL and the minor league games are rehab starts then I dont think it counts. At this point I dont think it matters if hes out of options, hes a 26 year old made of glass arm.

He still has sky-high potential, so I think being able to take an appropriate path with him this year (and not worry about another team scooping him up, which they absolutely would if he were DFA'd) is important. It may be a longshot at this point, but he could still be an impact reliever this year.

 

[Canada4Gold]

They've yet to just let Nate focus on being a reliever only so I'd like to see how he holds up to a reliever workload before I write him off as some longshot piece. Even when he was a top 20 prospect there was high end reliever outcome mixed in there. His body can't handle being a starter that much is clear. If his body can handle being a reliever he's still got a high end reliever as a possible outcome and it's nice to be able to have him in the minors working on that and be depth for whenever we need it if he can stay healthy

 

[aingefan]

Essentially predicts how good the player will be each season of control and based on a $/WAR estimate extrapolates that into a $ value. Then it predicts the salary of a player(if it's pre-arb or arb years) and subtracts that from the estimated player value to estimate how much surplus value a player is worth and that's the numebr that gets used.

Chapman as a simple example is predicted to be worth 28.7 million dollars in value next year by their model. Lets say they estimate each WAR is worth 9 million dollars, their model is predicting him for 3.19 WAR. His contract is 12 million next year for 1 year. Subtracting that from 28.7 gives 16.7 in surplus value so that's his listed value

An Espinal/Springer comparison on BTV gives an idea of how it works. They're both valued around 11 million surplus with 4 years of control which you might question at first as Springer's on field value is more than 3 times more than Espinal(101.1 v 30.7). The reason being Springer is being paid almost 5 times as much(90 million v 18.9 million Espinal estimate). Springer is the better player. Generally you need to spend money to ahve a good team. BTV values helps you do it as efficiently as you can.

Thanks, appreciated.

Complex but good tool.

Likely predicting lower WAR for Moreno than d/t catcher learning curves and playing time?

 

[canucksfan]

 

[Woodman19]

Love the attention being put on building a sound fundamental team. When you play good defense, run the bases well and have a ton of athleticism you force other teams to beat you rather than beating yourself.

 

[DonnyNucker]

I've already seen multiple posters on here and others online trying to argue that a reason for Gurriel and Hernandez departing was the dugout "shenanigans" when there have been no rumours to suggest this. It's been reported that the reason the Varsho trade took so long is that the Jays wanted to hang on to Gurriel. Atkins also came out after the Hernandez trade and said he would be open to a reunion at the end of the year.

Oh and after all the dugout fun earlier in the year, Montoyo gets fired and then management promotes a player's coach that came up with Vladdy, Bo, etc. through the minors and then gave him a 3-year deal.

I'm sorry to everyone who hates watching athletes have fun but seems like management isn't on your side here. If there's a rumour from earlier in the offseason that I missed about management being unhappy with it then ill wear some egg on my face here but everything I've seen suggests otherwise.

Sure…it was a total coincidence

I for one am thrilled those clowns are gone. Partially for their dugout antics but primarily for their sloppy baseball. Lourdes was my least favourite Jay in a long time. I suppose we may never know but it’s pretty convenient that they were the two tossed and Atkins mentions professionalism in every subsequent interview

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I don't think they got rid of Teo and Gurriel because they had to much fun...I think they got rid of them because they identified outfield defense as a major problem holding this team back and they were the two main ones holding it back. You can have fun in the dugout and still bust it out of the box and be a competent outfielder. They weren't and the team needed to improve defensively.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Per Baseball savant White was 63rd percentile in opponent average exit velocity, 79th in opponent hard hit % and 77th in opp barrel %. Those are percentiles so higher percentile means better for the pitcher. If his stuff was hittable then guys weren't hitting it very hard for some reason. Those are full year numbers, I can't find the numbers for Toronto only. I don't think he's some high value asset or anything, but I think he can absolutely settle in as a good 5th starter or swingman. A lot of us overreacted to how bad Stripling was his first go with the Jays.

Kikuchi meanwhile couldn't throw strikes to save his life, and had a HR/9 3 times as high as White to boot. 1st percentile in opp average exit velocity, hard hit% and barrel %. Walking everyone and getting crushed at the same time wasn't a good recipe. He was pretty solid in the pen for the small sample. He's good at striking guys out, but when he doesn't he got crushed or walked guys. Perhaps he can focus more on his best pitches walk less and K more out of the pen. White in the rotation and Kikuchi in the pen is the configuration I would start with

Kikuchi could end up being the Jays' second lefty reliever, and could end up being very good at that while also being stretched out at times.

Then if the Jays want to improve their bullpen this offseason, they can just move Richards in any deal make.

I would be fine with White as the 5th starter. They need to add at least one good depth guy to a minor league contract with an invitation, just to challenge him and act as AAA depth, but otherwise we can address it at the TDL if it is still an issue and nobody else is able to step up.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[phillipmike]

Better OF defense will help these guys.

 

[Ciao]

I'm not really sold on Varsho but I still like the trade.

From the little I've seen of him, Varsho looks more like a banger who jumps and dives in the style of Spiderman - Kevin Pilar -- and who tends to make routine plays look spectacular; rather than a lithe, athletic gazelle like Devon White, who made impossible plays look easy. The ball doesn't really jump off Varsho's bat, but he seems exert enough brute force and effort to succeed in all aspects of play. I will be rooting for him and will keep an open mind, but I'm not really expecting the second coming of the Messiah here. That said, I don't think anyone else is either.

Gurriel is a nothing in this deal. He's a replaceable player who probably wouldn't have a full-time position except as an injury replacement -- which actually could be needed with Springer and Varsho crashing around the outfield and Kiermaier's health history. However, Gurriel is still no big loss.

Moreno could eventually turn out to be another Jeff Kent, but that's the price you pay to get from Point A to Point B. I'm glad the Jays have practical, professional and pragmatic management that is committed to winning now and in the future. They needed to make a decision to improve the team, and I think they've done that.

 

[dredeye]

I've already seen multiple posters on here and others online trying to argue that a reason for Gurriel and Hernandez departing was the dugout "shenanigans" when there have been no rumours to suggest this. It's been reported that the reason the Varsho trade took so long is that the Jays wanted to hang on to Gurriel. Atkins also came out after the Hernandez trade and said he would be open to a reunion at the end of the year.

Oh and after all the dugout fun earlier in the year, Montoyo gets fired and then management promotes a player's coach that came up with Vladdy, Bo, etc. through the minors and then gave him a 3-year deal.

I'm sorry to everyone who hates watching athletes have fun but seems like management isn't on your side here. If there's a rumour from earlier in the offseason that I missed about management being unhappy with it then ill wear some egg on my face here but everything I've seen suggests otherwise.

I don’t think they loved the level of play around with the two of them. This isn’t something I can back up though. Just my thinking but not the reason they traded them. Just a reason I don’t think they hated moving off of them. Of course they will say they didn’t want to part with the player they moved. You don’t burn anyone when you trade them. Say good things and nothing but. There are a few real reasons they moved off of them IMO. First they wanted to improve outfield defence and those two are terrible defensively. They wanted to add left handed bats and needed places for those bats to play. Lastly, both players are on expiring contracts and neither was in their long term plans so they used them to improve the team. Which is way better then letting them walk away for nothing.

 

[canucksfan]

Original tweet was deleted

 

[habamillions]

Rotation is decent now

 

[Discoverer]

I'm not really sold on Varsho but I still like the trade.

From the little I've seen of him, Varsho looks more like a banger who jumps and dives in the style of Spiderman - Kevin Pilar -- and who tends to make routine plays look spectacular; rather than a lithe, athletic gazelle like Devon White, who made impossible plays look easy. The ball doesn't really jump off Varsho's bat, but he seems exert enough brute force and effort to succeed in all aspects of play. I will be rooting for him and will keep an open mind, but I'm not really expecting the second coming of the Messiah here. That said, I don't think anyone else is either.

Gurriel is a nothing in this deal. He's a replaceable player who probably wouldn't have a full-time position except as an injury replacement -- which actually could be needed with Springer and Varsho crashing around the outfield and Kiermaier's health history. However, Gurriel is still no big loss.

Moreno could eventually turn out to be another Jeff Kent, but that's the price you pay to get from Point A to Point B. I'm glad the Jays have practical, professional and pragmatic management that is committed to winning now and in the future. They needed to make a decision to improve the team, and I think they've done that.

The defensive numbers and scouting suggest it's the complete opposite - he makes plenty of flashy plays, but the majority of his defensive value comes from getting great jumps, quick acceleration, and fantastic routes to the ball, ultimately making tough plays look easy. If you look at the highlights of his low-percentage plays, a ton of them are underwhelming because he just runs down balls in the gap and stuff.

 

[canucksfan]

The defensive numbers and scouting suggest it's the complete opposite - he makes plenty of flashy plays, but the majority of his defensive value comes from getting great jumps, quick acceleration, and fantastic routes to the ball, ultimately making tough plays look easy. If you look at the highlights of his low-percentage plays, a ton of them are underwhelming because he just runs down balls in the gap and stuff.

Here's a video I was going to post earlier but forgot that supports this.



It probably was posted a few days ago.

 

[aight]

Here's a video I was going to post earlier but forgot that supports this.



It probably was posted a few days ago.

It’s still good on this page too.

 

[Ciao]

The defensive numbers and scouting suggest it's the complete opposite - he makes plenty of flashy plays, but the majority of his defensive value comes from getting great jumps, quick acceleration, and fantastic routes to the ball, ultimately making tough plays look easy. If you look at the highlights of his low-percentage plays, a ton of them are underwhelming because he just runs down balls in the gap and stuff.

As the great Yogi Berra said, you can observe a lot by watching, and that's just what I plan to do.

I haven't seen more than a few snippets yet, and I'm looking forward to seeing more.

 

[aight]

As the great Yogi Berra said, you can observe a lot by watching, and that's just what I plan to do.

I haven't seen more than a few snippets yet, and I'm looking forward to seeing more.

I saw someone either here or on the Twitter call Varsho fast lefty bat outfield Chapman.

 

[Dr.Funk]

 

[Canada4Gold]

That's a pretty good deal for Atlanta. 15 million FA years for a 5.1 WAR catcher. Good precedent for the Jays to try to get Jansen signed to a good deal. If Murphy is only getting 15 million FA years than Jansen can't really ask for more than 10.

 

[Hoverhand]

Sure…it was a total coincidence

I for one am thrilled those clowns are gone. Partially for their dugout antics but primarily for their sloppy baseball.

I for one want the baseball players I cheer to act like they're working for an accountant firm and never show any signs that they might be having fun.

Tbh what would really work is if they played the entire game in suits and only showed emotion through a cordial handshake.

 

[Ale Brew]

That's a pretty good deal for Atlanta. 15 million FA years for a 5.1 WAR catcher. Good precedent for the Jays to try to get Jansen signed to a good deal. If Murphy is only getting 15 million FA years than Jansen can't really ask for more than 10.

What would that look like? 6 years $40M? Maybe up to $50M?

 

[DonnyNucker]

I for one want the baseball players I cheer to act like they're working for an accountant firm and never show any signs that they might be having fun.

Tbh what would really work is if they played the entire game in suits and only showed emotion through a cordial handshake.

Yes that’s exactly what I want as well. Hustle on the bases, make smart plays in the field and Lourdes could wear a clown mask in the dugout for all I care. Nobody cares about their antics until they continually made glaring/ lazy mistakes over and over again. So it’s natural for fans and likely the organization to question their focus and professionalism