White is out of options, so it's basically down to long man or 5th starter for him.
Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition II - Winter Meeting Madness
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Canada4Gold
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As bad at White was in his short Jays stint last year he was pretty unlucky. 7.74 ERA but a 3.76 FIP. .368 BABIP. The K/BB wasn't as good as you'd like, but he didn't give up many HR.
Quite similar to Stripling's 1st half season with the Jays. He had a 6.32 ERA but 3.70 FIP. .347 BABIP. Better K% but worse BB%(similar difference), and didn't give up many HR either. Very similar seasons.
I'd prefer White starting than Kikuchi TBH. Kikuchi has stuff but hasn't really had much success beyond a half season in 2021. I have more faith in White.
Quite similar to Stripling's 1st half season with the Jays. He had a 6.32 ERA but 3.70 FIP. .347 BABIP. Better K% but worse BB%(similar difference), and didn't give up many HR either. Very similar seasons.
I'd prefer White starting than Kikuchi TBH. Kikuchi has stuff but hasn't really had much success beyond a half season in 2021. I have more faith in White.
I thought so after I made that post. I think Pearson is as well.
Canada4Gold
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Nate has 2 left. I don't think he burned one this year. It might have been all IL and rehab time
Woodman19
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If he was on a MiLB roster for 1 calendar day in 2022 he burned a minor league option.
I've already seen multiple posters on here and others online trying to argue that a reason for Gurriel and Hernandez departing was the dugout "shenanigans" when there have been no rumours to suggest this. It's been reported that the reason the Varsho trade took so long is that the Jays wanted to hang on to Gurriel. Atkins also came out after the Hernandez trade and said he would be open to a reunion at the end of the year.
Oh and after all the dugout fun earlier in the year, Montoyo gets fired and then management promotes a player's coach that came up with Vladdy, Bo, etc. through the minors and then gave him a 3-year deal.
I'm sorry to everyone who hates watching athletes have fun but seems like management isn't on your side here. If there's a rumour from earlier in the offseason that I missed about management being unhappy with it then ill wear some egg on my face here but everything I've seen suggests otherwise.
Oh and after all the dugout fun earlier in the year, Montoyo gets fired and then management promotes a player's coach that came up with Vladdy, Bo, etc. through the minors and then gave him a 3-year deal.
I'm sorry to everyone who hates watching athletes have fun but seems like management isn't on your side here. If there's a rumour from earlier in the offseason that I missed about management being unhappy with it then ill wear some egg on my face here but everything I've seen suggests otherwise.
Kurtz
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I hated what I saw from White last year - half his pitches were 94mph middle-middle fastballs with no movement. Guys just sat and teed-off on that pitch. By far the most hittable pitcher I saw last year tbh. At least Kikuchi gives you 98 from the left side, which is super rare.
Kurtz
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From Budzz post on page 81:
A few statements from Atkins seemed to confirm...
“We’re exceptionally excited about these guys we’ve acquired this year, (Erik) Swanson, (Kevin) Kiermaier, (Chris) Bassitt and now Varsho,” Atkins said on a Christmas Eve Zoom call. “How they go about their business, their competitiveness, their focus on process and focus on being good teammates."
“We feel very good about the personality of our clubhouse, feel very good about the professionalism, but always looking to improve and make progress.”
I don't think wanting clubhouse leadership is indicative of them wanting players to stop having fun in the dugout but we will see. I don't think professionalism and having fun are mutually exclusive.
I think if they actually felt strongly about it, they would have sent a strong message to Schneider before the end of the year.
Well, they did bring in Mattingly.
Based on management's comments I think changing the attitude in the clubhouse was at the bottom compared to defense and even base running but it seems they wanted a change.
And I say this as someone who enjoyed the antics in the clubhouse.
Canada4Gold
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Are you sure? Fangraphs has him at 2 and I thought options don't burn unless you've been optioned for 20 days and rehab assignments don't count at all.
Canada4Gold
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Per Baseball savant White was 63rd percentile in opponent average exit velocity, 79th in opponent hard hit % and 77th in opp barrel %. Those are percentiles so higher percentile means better for the pitcher. If his stuff was hittable then guys weren't hitting it very hard for some reason. Those are full year numbers, I can't find the numbers for Toronto only. I don't think he's some high value asset or anything, but I think he can absolutely settle in as a good 5th starter or swingman. A lot of us overreacted to how bad Stripling was his first go with the Jays.
Kikuchi meanwhile couldn't throw strikes to save his life, and had a HR/9 3 times as high as White to boot. 1st percentile in opp average exit velocity, hard hit% and barrel %. Walking everyone and getting crushed at the same time wasn't a good recipe. He was pretty solid in the pen for the small sample. He's good at striking guys out, but when he doesn't he got crushed or walked guys. Perhaps he can focus more on his best pitches walk less and K more out of the pen. White in the rotation and Kikuchi in the pen is the configuration I would start with
Woodman19
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If we had him on the MLB IL and the minor league games are rehab starts then I dont think it counts. At this point I dont think it matters if hes out of options, hes a 26 year old made of glass arm.
Kurtz
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That's pretty good, but I'm talking about his fastball that he throws a lot. It has no movement and batters don't miss it.
Mitch White is a stopgap until someone better comes along. Being 5th starter means you may need to go to bullpen on occasion. I expect that start to be a quasi bullpen day for pitching.
Assuming the Jays do not add a fifth starter, whoever pitches better in Spring Training between Kikuchi and White will get the 5th starter.
The Jays didn't have a problem sending Yusei to the bullpen.
The Jays didn't have a problem sending Yusei to the bullpen.
Anthrax442
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Anthrax442
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Canada4Gold
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Addison Barger probably starts in AAA because we probably prefer he be playing full time but he's likely the first guy they'd look at after Espinal if they needed a full time SS or 3B. Horwitz could make it as a bench corner OF/backup 1B. Likely won't see any prospects in the pen early in the year as we'll likely be optioning Pop and Pearson as it is with Merryweather possibly DFA too. But Zulueta could get a look at some point, either pen or as a starter if they need it. His fastball can reach 100. Tiedemann is the one I assume most know by now. Likely starts in AA and may be on a innings limit where he ends the team in the pen possibly for the Jays if they need him. Otto Lopez we've seen already, I can see him in a bench role. Hagen Danner, Hayden Juenger as possibl pen options later in the year. Adrian Hernandez possible too.
Can anyone break down how the trade value tool works, roughly?
Those two other Moreno years would seem to be the most valuable years in the trade.
I get that it’s pretty complex, but makes me wonder.
Moving Moreno of the three catchers was my least favorite option, but Varsho sounds like a pretty great piece and the baseball minds are smarter than me.
Seems like the FO had a pretty smart, calculated off-season with a bit more room to upgrade. Seems like good work.
Those two other Moreno years would seem to be the most valuable years in the trade.
I get that it’s pretty complex, but makes me wonder.
Moving Moreno of the three catchers was my least favorite option, but Varsho sounds like a pretty great piece and the baseball minds are smarter than me.
Seems like the FO had a pretty smart, calculated off-season with a bit more room to upgrade. Seems like good work.
Anthrax442
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Canada4Gold
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Essentially predicts how good the player will be each season of control and based on a $/WAR estimate extrapolates that into a $ value. Then it predicts the salary of a player(if it's pre-arb or arb years) and subtracts that from the estimated player value to estimate how much surplus value a player is worth and that's the numebr that gets used.
Chapman as a simple example is predicted to be worth 28.7 million dollars in value next year by their model. Lets say they estimate each WAR is worth 9 million dollars, their model is predicting him for 3.19 WAR. His contract is 12 million next year for 1 year. Subtracting that from 28.7 gives 16.7 in surplus value so that's his listed value
An Espinal/Springer comparison on BTV gives an idea of how it works. They're both valued around 11 million surplus with 4 years of control which you might question at first as Springer's on field value is more than 3 times more than Espinal(101.1 v 30.7). The reason being Springer is being paid almost 5 times as much(90 million v 18.9 million Espinal estimate). Springer is the better player. Generally you need to spend money to ahve a good team. BTV values helps you do it as efficiently as you can.
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