Odds of opponent if we make the playoffs?
- Thread starter corpfan1
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talkinaway
Registered User
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Boston.html
We're about 35% to stay in the division, 28% to get WC2, and 37% to go away. So, assuming we make the playoffs, that's about 35/(35 + 28) = 55% to stay in the division, and 45% to be bounced to the Metro.
The vast majority of the Atlantic matchups are against Ottawa, while the vast majority of Metro matchups are against Washington.
We're about 35% to stay in the division, 28% to get WC2, and 37% to go away. So, assuming we make the playoffs, that's about 35/(35 + 28) = 55% to stay in the division, and 45% to be bounced to the Metro.
The vast majority of the Atlantic matchups are against Ottawa, while the vast majority of Metro matchups are against Washington.
BruinsFanMike82
Registered User
According to that site:
Senators = 27.4%
Capitals = 21.5%
Canadiens = 4.5%
Blue Jackets = 4.3%
Maple Leafs = 2.6%
Penguins = 2.4%
Senators = 27.4%
Capitals = 21.5%
Canadiens = 4.5%
Blue Jackets = 4.3%
Maple Leafs = 2.6%
Penguins = 2.4%
Jean_Jacket41
Neely = HOF
BruinsFanMike82
Registered User
Higher chance of Toronto/Boston finishing as #2 and #3 in the Atlantic than the Penguins winning the Metro AND the Bruins finishing as the 2nd wild card? It's basically an even chance between those two scenarios though, according to that site.
talkinaway
Registered User
Keep in mind those are all estimates. Take them with a healthy grain of salt. You can probably figure out the major part of the story by looking at the playoff picture "manually".
MTL and OTT have a good lock on A1/A2 in some order: they could flip, but they're more likely to stay in the order they're in. I don't see the Leafs or us passing either of them. TOR/BOS are vying for A3, and I'd give Toronto the slight inside track, if you ignore the fact that they don't have their starting goalie as of last night. Overall, in reality, I'd say it's a push between TOR and BOS. If we don't pass Toronto, we have to fend off both NYI and TBL for the WC2 spot.
Thus, we're likely going to be in A3, which matches up mostly against OTT, with a touch of MTL.
We're not quite as likely going to be in WC2, because if we're bad enough to drop out of A3, it might be because we got clobbered by NYI/TBL in the standings (and TBL in our one remaining game against them). Being clobbered by TBL in particular might squeeze us out of the playoffs altogether. If we do hit WC2, we play M1, which is probably Washington, with a small touch of CBJ/PIT if one of those teams passes WSH.
MTL and OTT have a good lock on A1/A2 in some order: they could flip, but they're more likely to stay in the order they're in. I don't see the Leafs or us passing either of them. TOR/BOS are vying for A3, and I'd give Toronto the slight inside track, if you ignore the fact that they don't have their starting goalie as of last night. Overall, in reality, I'd say it's a push between TOR and BOS. If we don't pass Toronto, we have to fend off both NYI and TBL for the WC2 spot.
Thus, we're likely going to be in A3, which matches up mostly against OTT, with a touch of MTL.
We're not quite as likely going to be in WC2, because if we're bad enough to drop out of A3, it might be because we got clobbered by NYI/TBL in the standings (and TBL in our one remaining game against them). Being clobbered by TBL in particular might squeeze us out of the playoffs altogether. If we do hit WC2, we play M1, which is probably Washington, with a small touch of CBJ/PIT if one of those teams passes WSH.
What I don't like is when the Bruins finish their season on the afternoon of April 8th - Toronto still has 2 more games to play as do the Islanders.
http://www.espn.com/nhl/schedule?date=20170408
Even Washington plays on the 9th so there is a good chance the B's will be in limbo after they finish their 82 games.
http://www.espn.com/nhl/schedule?date=20170408
Even Washington plays on the 9th so there is a good chance the B's will be in limbo after they finish their 82 games.
So they will probably need the islanders to lose a game or two is what you are saying?
I was thinking more about Toronto
If I was Cam Neely I would put the players in a Boston hotel the night before all six home games and sell the players on it so the NHLPA wouldn't complain.
As long as we're ahead, that's fine by me... Games in hand are only points if you win them.
Those 2 games for the Leafs are CBJ and PIT... Both of whom are going to be fighting to the end with the Caps for 1/2/3 in the bloodbath division. We have and most likely will have the ROW tiebreaker over the Leafs. If we're 2 points ahead of them when we finish I like our chances. B's gotta do their job first.
