Observations XXVII

[Byrddog]

Practically speaking, we all know Hynes is going to get all next season to try to complete his fixes to the team. And I think that's totally fair. You make the decision to hire him with the expectation that (unless he pulls a Montgomery or something) you are going to give him time to do his thing.

We aren't locked in very long with him past that. But I do think you have to take a much longer view than our traditional 3-game losing streak panic attacks. The fix isn't going to be easy, it clearly has not been immediately apparent to the professional hockey coaches we've been hiring to figure it out. Asking Hynes to perform miracles if the real issue is with the player personnel is a little too much. Poile already axed one coach when I don't think he really wanted to, while publicly acknowledging the blame rested with the players. I doubt he does that again.

Player changes will eventually be the next step. I am guessing that's not too likely this summer - or not at a "housecleaning" magnitude, anyway. I see this timeline looking forward:

• Summer 2020: roster "tweaks" (fill in for departing UFAs mostly)
• 2020-21 season: Hynes shows what he can do in a full season with the tweaked team
  • Team succeeds:
    • yay, we go back to being Happy Preds Fans for the next TBD seasons
  • Team fails:
    • the players are in big trouble
    • Summer 2021 sees much bigger player personnel changes (starting with Seattle draft)
    • 2021-2022 season: Hynes shows what he can do with new roster...

... so I'm thinking we should plan either way on having Hynes around for the next 2 seasons. Because if nobody figures things out in the meantime, it will be during or after the 2021-2022 season when the window may next open up for a new coach.

I think you are right on. The troubling part is figuring out what players Hynes will attach his horse too. The coaching was clearly not the biggest issue. The specials teams coaches have been changed as often as the drawers of a hooker on 8th Ave, and it has not made any difference. On paper this roster should excel but for two years they have been failing. This is going to be an ugly road back. The one thing that is bad for the fan this team is not even entertaining now. When they get a lead there is a nauseating feeling one gets to see how they are going to blow it. And if they get down two goals they just collapse.

 

[Loyal Legion]

Are our “best” players really our best players anymore?
Johansen is slow and lazy. Ryan Ellis has more points than him playing 19 less games. Eckholm has 3 more assists than one of our “best” passers. Calle freakin Jarnkrok has only 3 less points while playing 4 less games.
Arvy: injured or not, he’s not in the “best” group right now. He was lethal when he was fast and tenacious, frequently came away with loose pucks and his speed allowed him to use his deceptive shot. He has slowed down and the rest of his game has been effected.
Forsberg: our sniper who can also pass, hard to get off the puck. He can be a game changer when he is not pouting or trying to do everything by himself. When his line mates aren’t producing, he isn’t either. And personally, his shot is more potent from right side.

2 different style coaches, same underperforming results so far.

Common denominator is the heart. I wish the leaders of the locker room would try something different:
Have players only meeting and while comparing all the 000’s on their contracts, watch highlights of the 2017 playoff run and 2018 regular season. Not just highlights of the games itself but footage of the fans inside and outside the arena that we’re going cup crazy and galvanized this community together. Most of these buffoons aren’t motivated by money anymore as they have their big contracts but maybe they can realize there are still reasons to play hard and execute for the Nashville Predators, us.

 

[GoldOnGold]

Points per game, 2018-2019 vs 2019-2020

Johansen
2018-19: .80 PPG
2019-20: .54 PPG
21 point difference over 82 games

Arvidsson
2018-19: .83 PPG
2019-20: .46 PPG
30 point difference over 82 games

Forsberg
2018-19: .78 PPG
2019-20: .73 PPG
4 point difference over 82 games

 

[Enoch]

I'm just piggybacking here the hypothetical situation where the Predators continue to struggle and choose to keep Hynes through the entirety of next season:

So we have a core of players that took us to the Stanley cup finals and won the division twice, and we would rather trade that core and keep Hynes?

Crazy sauce.

If that is what Poile chooses to do, he will burn that ship and the Predators chances right into the ground on his way to retirement.

 

[Armourboy]

I'm just piggybacking here the hypothetical situation where the Predators continue to struggle and choose to keep Hynes through the entirety of next season:

So we have a core of players that took us to the Stanley cup finals and won the division twice, and we would rather trade that core and keep Hynes?

Crazy sauce.

If that is what Poile chooses to do, he will burn that ship and the Predators chances right into the ground on his way to retirement.

That core hasn't played like that in 2 years at this point. Holding on to them like they aren't part of the problem is silly.

 

[Enoch]

That core hasn't played like that in 2 years at this point. Holding on to them like they aren't part of the problem is silly.

Holding onto Hynes (in that scenario) while eviscerating the roster is worse.

-----

Some here have very short memories. Forsberg, RyJo, Arvidsson. These guys CARRIED our team for several years now. Forsberg and Johansen were playoff warriors. They were unquestionable leaders.

Now they are on the bench, playing 3rd/ 4th line minutes with limited powerplay time.

Our vezina winner: immediately on the bench.

Our new star forward: playing reduced minutes and no powerplay time.

Meanwhile, Calle Jarnkrok who has about 1 goal in 60 playoff games is on the top line.

Look, I know that you can't judge everything based on past seasons' success, but we are looking at a very small sample size of playing under Hynes versus an entire career of success. One to two games of struggling in a new system and new linemates vs a career of success is not how you judge/make informed decisions. I'm a baseball fan, so let's imagine Hynes employed a similar strategy with the Yankees. He see's Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez go 1-12 with 11 strikeouts. Maybe they do that for TWO straight games, 2-24 with 22 strikeouts. If he then proceeds to bench them for the forseable future or use them in a reserve capacity and replaces them with I don't know, Kyle Higoshaka the backup catcher and two outfielders who are role players like Mike Tauchman or Mike Ford. Well, you might win the next game, but you will lose the locker room and you will lose the season.

I know that the current situation matters, and it is pressing. However, it seems foolhardy to me to upend the entire locker room, the entire leadership structure, and the entire construction of the team and expect it to work. At best, you have a 50% chance. At worst, you will see the team implode or continue to be inconsistent as it has all year.

Benching a star player to send a message, well, it just isn't done often. Why? Because they are the best player on the team, are better than replacement players, and they have a higher ceiling than the other players.

Benching 4 stars? 5 stars? Unheard of. It is a novel coaching idea. One that has never been tried. I cannot see it continuing. If it does, this roster will be completely remade in 1-2 years.

 

[Armourboy]

Holding onto Hynes (in that scenario) while eviscerating the roster is worse.

We don't know what Poile is going to do, but at this point when you've done about everything you can to shake things up and they still haven't responded then it leaves little room.

Hynes may not be answer but this crew isn't exactly doing much to show that it will matter who you have as head coach.

Also you bench star players due to a lack of effort, which frankly has been a problem in the past. I would argue that side of it has actually gotten better since Hynes came in but what hasn't gotten better is execution.

 

[LCPreds]

Hynes should go full yolo and start rolling out 4F/1D combos.

 

[Scoresberg]

I'm not the biggest fan of Hynes either and certainly I do not support his willingness to try "spread the wealth" and not play our top forwards but the fact is Calle Jarnkrok was our leading forward scorer under Laviolette.

So, it's not like another coach has gotten anything more out of them and based on what I've seen I'm not so inclined to blame the coaches, we could have the best coach in the league and those guys probably still wouldn't put up points.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Matt Irwin played over 27 minutes last night.

 

[Montross]

I'm not the biggest fan of Hynes either and certainly I do not support his willingness to try "spread the wealth" and not play our top forwards but the fact is Calle Jarnkrok was our leading forward scorer under Laviolette.

So, it's not like another coach has gotten anything more out of them and based on what I've seen I'm not so inclined to blame the coaches, we could have the best coach in the league and those guys probably still wouldn't put up points.

Change coaches, change systems, and if the results are still the same ultimately perhaps it is a player (or players) who are the issue here.

 

[drwpreds]

Some here have very short memories. .

Yep- been thinking about this some lately. To hear some fans talk, you would think we only had one great year (the Cup run). We had a great FIVE year run, and that even includes last year. A 100 point season and a division title sounds pretty darn good right now. I will never take that kind of season for granted again after this miserable season.

Three 100 point seasons
Two division titles
Stanley Cup Final- 2 wins from winning Cup
Five playoff series wins
Presidents Trophy

Other than the teams that actually won the Cup during that 5 year span, not sure any team in the NHL had a better 5 years than we had.

 

[Kat Predator]

I posted it in another thread, but I think Lavi's ship sunk with Subban. His offensive-oriented system put a lot of pressure on his D-men and forwards. He had D-men who could shoot, join the rush, and be creative. To backstop the aggressive play of the D, he sought hockey IQ smart, fast, versatile forwards (Jarnkrok, Sissons, Hartman, Bonino, even Johansen and Arvidsson) who were willing and able to play a two-way game. This all caused matchup problems for other teams. The quick, free release offense was predicated on D-men who won battles 1-on-1 or even 1-on-2 more often than not.

But they had no answer for the PP last year and started to go away from the formula. Hartman's speed and versatility was dealt for a ghost of a player who might've been able to stand in front of the net if healthy. Fiala, perpetually in Lavi's dog house for being a one-way player, and his offensive talent dealt for another jack-of-all-trades player who was willing to stand in front of the net on the PP.

When those moves didn't fix the PP and Subban's back made him a diminished but still effective player, they decided to weaken the D and go all in on offense. With 3 top-6 centers (which they still haven't figured out), demoting one of their goal scorers to the bottom 6 (where he is still a good, if streaky, goal scorer), challenging one of their utility players to move from 3rd to 1st line (the only move that sort of worked out, but gave us another streaky goal scorer), hoping a rookie D-man could log big minutes as a 3/4 (hope isn't a plan), counting on some older D-men to paper over the 5/6 (and fill in the gaps left by removing Subban from the PP, PK, etc.), and hoping Rinne would make miracles happen if all those moves didn't pan out perfectly.

The Poile/Lavi plan didn't work and Lavi got fired. Deservedly so. Nothing he did fixed the PP. His team wasn't responding and I expect he had say in all the moves mentioned above that backfired. He certainly had say in benching Fiala and Turris, while giving his utility guys more ice time.

But it's hard not to see the argument that Hynes was a cronyism hire. He's changing from an anticipate-and-attack to a six shot blockers playing zone in front of the net system team. We're still giving up a lot of goals in some games, but maybe less often. But the offense has withered away. A team that can only score 1 or 2 goals a game is called the New Jersey Devils in today's NHL.

Poile has some sleepless nights ahead of him to figure out where he goes from here, I'm afraid.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

This is the lowest point in the season for odds on making the playoffs....

Nashville Predators Chance Will Make Playoffs - Sports Club Stats

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Matt Irwin played over 27 minutes last night.

Speaking of.... at least they are playing him. He is still a bad defenseman on a team with no hopes of playoffs and injuries..

Holzer hasn’t seen the lineup yet. hamhuis is in the projected line up tonight.

My question is this... how in the hell does Poile make a trade to begin with for a guy that the hockey community says is worse than Irwin? He then adds on a 6th round pick (2022 so far off) that in all honestly has probably a less than 10% chance of ever impacting this franchise. It’s just a waste of an asset and Poile has continued to look worse and worse in every move he does.

How has Hynes not played him yet? I mean this is a team that defensively still looks awful. Were Poile and Hynes not on the same page when Poile made the trade? Maybe its more of the fact that every damn thing about this team and organization pisses me off right now.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Yeah I don't have a problem with making the Holzer trade if you think he's a decent option for the 6th Dman even if it ends up not working out. I do have a problem with us making the trade to then just healthy scratch the guy the rest of the season. Especially when Hamhuis's injury last game provided the perfect chance to get him into the lineup.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Yeah I don't have a problem with making the Holzer trade if you think he's a decent option for the 6th Dman even if it ends up not working out. I do have a problem with us making the trade to then just healthy scratch the guy the rest of the season. Especially when Hamhuis's injury last game provided the perfect chance to get him into the lineup.

I am glad to hear its not just me being how I normally am.

That 6th round pick really does not mean squat but like why make the move in the first place? Especially with Tinordi becoming a staple in the D pairs.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Speaking of.... at least they are playing him. He is still a bad defenseman on a team with no hopes of playoffs and injuries..

Holzer hasn’t seen the lineup yet. hamhuis is in the projected line up tonight.

My question is this... how in the hell does Poile make a trade to begin with for a guy that the hockey community says is worse than Irwin? He then adds on a 6th round pick (2022 so far off) that in all honestly has probably a less than 10% chance of ever impacting this franchise. It’s just a waste of an asset and Poile has continued to look worse and worse in every move he does.

How has Hynes not played him yet? I mean this is a team that defensively still looks awful. Were Poile and Hynes not on the same page when Poile made the trade? Maybe its more of the fact that every damn thing about this team and organization pisses me off right now.

Maybe Poile just did it as a favor to Irwin? Here buddy, I know your contract is up and we aren't bringing you back, and that your 12 minutes a night and brutal play here is not going to get you another NHL contract for next year... nor will sitting in the pressbox.... so have fun in Anaheim they are planning to use you and maybe you can land on your feet somewhere next year after that. No idea why he had to throw in a pick; probably Anaheim was otherwise just saying why bother, we'll just give our 27 minutes to Holzer in our post-deadline Tank assault. It's not super-close to home for him, but a shorter flight up the coast instead of across the whole country, maybe? Poile is a nice guy.

 

[Byrddog]

There are very few coaching changes where the incoming coach has the same system as the outgoing coach. If that were the case coaches would not change as often. This franchise has only went thru one fundamental change from Trotz to Lavi. Two polar opposite systems which took time to adjust moving players. And even more time with Poile's method of slow walking the build for Lavi. The big difference in Lavi and the Hynes change Lavi adjusted to the teams strength at the time and did not force his system on the team quickly as it seems Hynes is doing. Hynes looks to be more from the Torts camp of coaching we will play my system from day one and if you don't you will sit.

Now to the core of the team that went to the cup finals. Well you just can not stand on accolades from previous performance especially when the biggest factor in that run was your red hot Veznia winning goalie. You can not stop time from aging a player which clearly it has with Rinne. That run year you have to realize that the team went in as WC2 as well. The next season the Presidents trophy year the goals allowed was 2nd in the league allowing 211 and the goals for was 7th scoring 267. This year so far they have only scored 208 goals and allowed 215. Both critical measures going the wrong way. Some of it can be placed on coaching but the bulk is on the players and it does not matter if it is age in Rinnies case or laziness in Johansens case or bad luck in this guys case or an injury in that guys case none of that explains total collapse of heart and basic ability to pass and shoot the puck. Floundering along playing .500 hockey is not what this team should be doing. Poile has his part of blame coaching has there part they players have a huge piece of that pie and the owners have not one damn clue about running a hockey team.

Is anyone looking forward to these two games with Dallas? How about that next game with the two Wild games coning and the two Ave's games? 6 division games comin late and are going to stick a damn steak in this teams heart. They will win one or two of them but it hard to imagine they could even go .500 in these 6. Hell Chicago is on a three game win streak right now I am not sure that they catch and pass this team.

So yes it is time to break up this core. The goaltending and defense are not going to step back two years in age and personnel. The pipeline is bare of any talent that could come in next season and play top 6. So we need to quit imagining Trenin can. We are going to see Granlund gone Smith resigned and the rest of the gang of loafers holding on to those long fat contracts and stinking up the ice if nothing is done. I assure you if this team were in a Canadian market it would be gutted. They would have sold at the deadline and be on the tank for this draft. Other than Josi and on most nights Ekholm are the only impressive players out there. This has been coming since the President cup year and flame out in round one. That broke this team mentally and they have been going thru the motions since and Poile nor Lavi had a clue how to turn them around. The rotating coaches for special teams have not been able to turn that area around for what 5 years now the PP and OT play has shit the bed. That disease has set in on the entire roster.

 

[hockey diva]

While you have valid points on the team’s performance, tell me which Canadian market has “gutted” their team and tanked recently? Or even a major market team? Most have kept their cores together and built around them. What players would you have shipped out? Would we have actually gotten anything for them? I realize you have a personal beef with the ownership but to say after 10+ years of ownership they have no clue is not being fair. If we miss the playoffs and the bottom line goes red because of decreased corporate sales and fewer ticket renewals, they might start to question things.

For whatever reason, this core has no drive to win. And if someone could figure that out...

 

[GoldOnGold]

While you have valid points on the team’s performance, tell me which Canadian market has “gutted” their team and tanked recently? Or even a major market team? Most have kept their cores together and built around them. What players would you have shipped out? Would we have actually gotten anything for them? I realize you have a personal beef with the ownership but to say after 10+ years of ownership they have no clue is not being fair. If we miss the playoffs and the bottom line goes red because of decreased corporate sales and fewer ticket renewals, they might start to question things.

For whatever reason, this core has no drive to win. And if someone could figure that out...

The Rangers definitely gutted their old core - they shipped out Zuccarello, McDonagh, Miller, Hayes, Vesey, Grabner, and Nash.

 

[Byrddog]

While you have valid points on the team’s performance, tell me which Canadian market has “gutted” their team and tanked recently? Or even a major market team? Most have kept their cores together and built around them. What players would you have shipped out? Would we have actually gotten anything for them? I realize you have a personal beef with the ownership but to say after 10+ years of ownership they have no clue is not being fair. If we miss the playoffs and the bottom line goes red because of decreased corporate sales and fewer ticket renewals, they might start to question things.

For whatever reason, this core has no drive to win. And if someone could figure that out...

Vancouver finished there gut when the Twins retired. Toronto went bare bones a couple years before hiring that flunky from Detroit to coach. Montreal has tried to sell off and tank a number of times over the last 10 years. Poor Ottawa is doing it again now and its been a while but the Oil did it for 5 or 6 years in a row resulting in there #1 picks.

Now as to those who should have been moved Smith, Granlund and Bones before the deadline. Bones because he would have been attractive to a team making a run. That should have brought in a couple 2nds and perhaps a NHL ready ELC guy. In the offseason Johansen needs to be moved it may take some retention and a 2nd round pick to get a piece back however with that contract. I would give Duchene a chance. I would move Forsberg for young asset and picks same with Arvy. Find someone not named Poile to make the pick at the draft. Look to find the next starting tender someone around the age of 26 that is needing a spot Berube is one I would be interested in also Shesterkin or Georgiev will be leaving the Rangers could also be options. Right now there are no players in the system remotely close to being impact players in Nashville. Picking where they have since the Jones pick has only given them players that need a lot of time in the lower divisions just to be able to break into the league and most of those have been moved in what now look to have been failed trades. Asset management has been poor trying to make a run before Pekka's window closed. Adding a piece here and a piece there now can not repair this roster. And when you combine that with a coach who's system is more akin to Trotz than Lavi it just adds more reason to go ahead and do a rebuild. If it were me I would have another coach in mind to hire when Hynes time is up and put pieces in the system that would fit that system. Building to Hynes is dangerous since he has not had much success in the league. Why build to him when he will be gone in two years tops. The organization needs direction. Can Poile provide that being this close to retirement???? Will Poile stick around long enough to see a rebuild thru?

As to ownership they are not remotely involved in hockey operations but you are correct if the bottom line turns to losing money they will get interested real quick. I do not think they are even interested in the team making a profit breaking even is fine with them but they will not stomach losing money.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I'm pretty damn glad we didnt throw in the towel on Saros like some people advocated earlier in the season (or the post prior to this).

 

[hockey diva]

Ottawa sells because the owner is too cheap to pay his players when they hit their prime. The Rangers admitted they were in rebuild mode so I will give you that. I wouldn’t call Vancouver a “gut” job. They drafted well and their older core aged out. Montreal hasn’t really sold off and rebuilt either. They have drafted poorly and tried to add pieces. Edmonton has been beset with horrible management for over a decade. It was never a rebuild.

I also am not sure this market could tolerate several seasons of basement hockey. Though we may get it anyway, with this group.

 

[Legionnaire11]

I also am not sure this market could tolerate several seasons of basement hockey. Though we may get it anyway, with this group.

This is the real reason not to do it. Look at what happened to Titans attendance when they stunk, if it wasn't for PSL's they would have lost a lot of season ticket sales, as it was people stopped going or sold to visiting fans.

The Preds certainly strengthened their foundation in 2017, but a lengthy rebuild would quickly erode that and I'm not in any hurry to get back into daily attendance and relocation posts.

You try to make the playoffs every season (hope to get hot/lucky to make a run), continue to draft and develop and aim for quick retools when needed.

It's okay to say that our big, underperforming contracts need to go. But it can't just be for picks and filling the roster with promising kids from Milwaukee. At least not all at once, a slow burn is another way to go, we traded Subban last summer, so trade another one this summer, another the year after that.