So, I have a new theory to explain our poor play that digs deeper than “we suck”. Now we may just suck, but if that’s all there is, then life becomes uninteresting.
Our team under Trotz (circa 2013-2014) was a non-playoff, defense-first, dump-and-chase team. We brought in Lavy, and he implemented a forechecking, carry-the-puck-in, pressure offense. He made personnel decisions and unleashed our O-minded d-men to play a 200-foot game and not worry about being the last-line-of-defense. His system taught the forwards to cycle to the natural d-man area if the d-man pinched or was playing deep in our zone.
It worked and we loved the up-tempo, attack style. JOFA became a Top 10 line and even though we didn’t have top-flight Top 6 forwards, we scored more and won more. We went on a 5-year run of not only making the playoffs, but truly contending for the Cup.
Poile believed in the players and one-by-one, locked them into long term contracts. Joey got big money based on his tenure and not wanting to lose him after the Jones trade, while the rest got signed to extensions at lower rates, followed by stats that made them bargains (Eck, Josi, Ellis, Forsberg, Arvy).
Poile also made win-now deals based on strengthening weaknesses (center) and giving up players who played positions of strength to us (d-men). So, he did the following:
· Hornquist for Neal
· Jones for Joey
· Weber for Subban
· Girard for Turris
· Fiala for Granny
· Subban for Duchene (effectively)
As we sat on 1/1/20, pre-Lavy-firing, we were not in a playoff spot and believing Lavy’s message had gotten stale. The thought of wasting a year while making moves as a win-now team was more than Poile could take. Convincing himself his prize players needed a new voice to get them playing to their potential, he cans Lavy in January and hires the best coach available (Hines).
Hines is Trotzion in his style and expectations. You earn your minutes. You play solid zone defense. You balance offensive pressure with responsible d-zone coverage. To right the loose defense, you restrain the O-first mindset. There’s nothing wrong with Hines’ approach, except his personnel isn’t aligned with the approach. Just like Lavy had to make changes post-Trotz to get players who could play his style well, Hines is converting Lavy players into Hines players. The result has been a confusing mess.
The defense has improved. The offense has suffered. We win when we get great goaltending, but we’ve lost the ability to dominate anyone. We win 1 goal games and lose 3-to-5 goal games. Our best players are no longer our best players. Joey, Forsberg, and Arvy, our 3 best players under Lavy, have been displaced by Bonino and Granlund. JOFA, as individuals, have lost their confidence and had their playing time stripped.
Team confidence is lost. When they went into slumps under Lavy, they could lean on the fact they always found a way out of it under Lavy and made the playoffs. When Poile pulled the Lavy plug in January, he took a huge risk. If the players he’d signed to long term contracts did not revive under Hines, we lose, and he’s stuck with players he can’t move without eating salary. This is exactly what’s happened. We’ve lost our mojo, and Hines is using his infamous you-earn-your-minutes approach to play Joey on the 4th line and play Forsberg 12 minutes a game. He’s treating the Bonino line as his #1, which I get cuz they’ve performed, but they have a low ceiling. When they’re good, they’re pretty good, but they’re not JOFA circa 2018.
My guess is, if we had retained Trotz during the Lavy years, Forsberg would have never become a 30-goal scorer and Joey wouldn’t be a mid-60’s assist machine center. Arvy would not have played on the 1st line. Trotz used to play Ellis protected minutes because he was small. He would not have put up with Fil’s hotdog moves, and Joey would have been Torts’d by Trotz (too lazy). They weren’t his type of players, and I’m afraid they’re not Hines type of players either.
Now you may be saying, “dang right Joey’s lazy and Fil likes mustard on his dog”, but these are our long-contract guys. Because of the change in philosophy, and the lack of looking like a playoff team right now, Hines will need to force Poile’s hand and rebuild around different guys. That will take years because of our contract situations.
Can’t help but wonder what would have happened if we had retained Lavy. My bet is, we would have bounced back, Forsberg would have 25 goals, Rinne would look like Rinne because he would have been allowed to play consecutive games, and the team would have the confidence they earned via the banners hanging from the rafters, and played Lavy-style hockey as they were assembled to play.
The unfortunate villain in this drama is Poile. Re-look at those trades he made I listed above. NONE of the receiving teams would voluntarily reverse their deals today, not even Montreal. Most of those deals looked reasonably good in their first year or two, but none of them have aged well. We’re playing Tinordi, Hammer, and Y. Weber instead of Jones, Girard, and S. Weber. Pens win Cups via Horny (with 2017’s winning goal as painful as it gets) while we give away Neal to Vegas to hold onto switchblade Yarny for value purposes. Fiala blossoms into the force we dreamed he would be, while we get 25% of one season out of Granny before we don’t re-sign him. Jones, Sammy, and Fiala could be the young nucleus of our team right now. But Poile made win-now bets and then didn’t have the fortitude to stick with those guys after he signed them by keeping the system and coach that they thrived under to get the contracts in the first place.
Hence, we’re “lost” (defined as having no confidence in our direction or leadership) for the first time in our franchise history. Barry changed our diapers, built our playoff team with low-rent parts, and got us to respectability. We always believed in him and Poile. Poile switched horses the right way in 2014. Two full year non-playoff teams. Great run by Trotz. Classy send off and the right off-season hire in Lavy. When Poile did the mid-year switch, it was out of desperation and frustration, and to protect himself from criticism over who he gave long term contracts to. If he had waited until the season was over, we’d have known if the players, once again, would re-group under Lavy and make the playoffs, and if they didn’t, we’d have selected a better coach in the offseason plus known definitively that Lavy had lost the room.
Hines has f’d the minds of Rinne, Forsberg, Joey, Duchene, and Arvy. It’s tough to watch. Hines keeps talking about the Preds playing to their identity. It’s not their identity, it’s HIS identity. This team was not built to win 2-1. I think he’s lost the room. Our best players (except Josi and Ellis) are playing at 60% of their potential. It’s on them but Hines has not made it better and Poile has no more bullets in his gun.
We’re 1-to-2 points out of WC2, and we’re lost. Can we still make it? Sure. Saros is going to have to play out-his-bottom and Pekka is going to have to not-spit-the-bed in the backend of back-to-backs. That’s the only way. We’ll need our secondary, hard-working Hines-boy guys to play elite minutes and play above their heads. I’m the eternal optimist. I so want Fil to go on a tear and Joey to make did-you-see-that kinda passes. I want Duchy to score at his 31-goal pace and Arvy to find his lost alter-ego, Arvy Hustle. But we’re running out of games and Hines continues to make them “earn” their spots back. Nothing like Joey feeding that sniper Sissons or Turris not understanding how to setup Fil for goals. I’m afraid, all we’re going to “earn” is a better draft pick slot.
How about this: Fire Hines and hire back Lavy. Hines can coach Team USA. Now that would get everyone’s attention.