Rumor: Nylander like Matthews unextended. Nothing to see here.

[Stephen]

Nylander is an amazing player. We would not be able to replace his production with an individual player if he were moved.

With that being said, it's the first time I've ever felt that one of the core 4 could actually be moved. What makes me nervous though is that we can't score in the playoffs again. He's such a dynamic player.

If Nylander is moved, it appears Carolina is a good suited for him. They picked up Orlov at FA, which likely means Pesce is going to be on the move. As much as we're in need of a top 4 RHD and cap space, they are in need of a dynamic point producer.

Pesce alone is not nearly worth a player like Nylander. Wondering if there could be some sort of additional pieces like Teravainen and a top prospect could be added to get the value up to Nylander's worth.

I'd be looking to get my hands on Seth Jarvis in any Nylander scenario.

 

[Hellcat]

Meier going to the net, helping his team on forecheck to get the puck back, screening goalie... hes doing a lot of thing who will impavt the offensive game but not nevessairly giving you pts.

Pts 5v5 last 2 season before resigning
Gaudreau 37 goal 62 assist in 138 game 1.12 goal/60 2,99 pts/60

Huberdeau 30 goal 50 assist in 135 game 1,05 goal/60 and 2,79 pts/60

Meier 37 goal 45 assist in 133 game
1,07 goal/60 and 2,38 pts/60 in san jose

Forsberg 34 goal 26 assist in 208 game
1,38 goal/60, 2,43 pts/60

Fiala 35 goal 40 assist in 132 game
1,25 goal/60 and 2,68 pts/60

Nylander 40 goal 49bassist in 163 game
1,07 goal/60 and 2,37 pts/60

Nylander is the worst 5v5 comtribution of all those player, the fact he can produce on pp playing along side matthews, marner abd whatever , its what suppose to justify a salary over 10M?

7,5M-8,5M salary is not a discount, its nylander value

Does Nylander's 40 goals count less than Meier's 40 goals? Does the "how" really matter? They all count the same on the scoresheet. For a player and his agent yes production does count and for them it does not matter how? End of the day every team value goals. Just go back a couple of days to hear Tre say, we got work to do, a lot of goals left us today.

Not sure I get your 40 g and 48 assists in 163 games.

The issue isn't paying Willy for what one think he is worth; the issue is that we have already overpaid both Matthews and Marner quite a bit and have Tavares at 11 AAV basically 3 guys in double digit AAV only team in the league with such cap allocation.

Do we want to add a 4th player with double digit AAV for 2 more years and then still run the team with 3 players with double digit AAV. how do we compete with such cap allocation?

In the end you are looking for team success, what gives the Leafs the best chance at competing in the Atlantic Division to make playoffs; then compete with atlantic division (or WC team) in the first couple rounds and then metro team in the ECF.

Treliving's comments when he was introduced he said it is not about core 4 it is about all 23 guys on the roster, it is about Toronto Maple Leafs.

Now all that remains to be seen is whether Treliving was all talk or is he going to put this in action.

Do we want to add a fourth guy with double digit AAV? Depends on who that guy is and when we are adding him.

 

[notbias]

The issue isn't paying Willy for what one think he is worth; the issue is that we have already overpaid both Matthews and Marner quite a bit and have Tavares at 11 AAV basically 3 guys in double digit AAV only team in the league with such cap allocation.

Do we want to add a 4th player with double digit AAV for 2 more years and then still run the team with 3 players with double digit AAV. how do we compete with such cap allocation?

In the end you are looking for team success, what gives the Leafs the best chance at competing in the Atlantic Division to make playoffs; then compete with atlantic division (or WC team) in the first couple rounds and then metro team in the ECF.

Treliving's comments when he was introduced he said it is not about core 4 it is about all 23 guys on the roster, it is about Toronto Maple Leafs.

Now all that remains to be seen is whether Treliving was all talk or is he going to put this in action.

Florida is 500k away from having 3 players and had like 6 million in dead cap... but ya, 3 double digit players will never work for anyone.

 

[Advanced stats]

I've often wondered if a 2x8 deal is best for both sides.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

This is false. Nylander can absolutely drive his own line.

Thanks for the response.

He only took 41 faceoffs last year. He had a 48% faceoff victory. Even when he was centring his own line the wing man would come in and take the faceoff a lot of the time.

I'd have to look at the game logs when he centred his own line, but it looked to me like every time Nylander had to drive a line it didn't do well.

Nylander is too one dimensional.

Hyman did much better driving his own line. Because Hyman was a much more rounded player. Every line Hyman played on did better with him on it than without him.

I can't say the same for Nylander.

 

[Dekes For Days]

one of his rocket season and the hart win came when he was playing in the Canadian division -> weakest division of all at the time during the covid cup.

Lol.
1. The Canadian division was not even the weakest division that season, let alone of all time.
2. He completely decimated the competition, so any suggestion that competition impacts affected his rocket win are laughable.
3. You don't just get to ignore dominating seasons from your players and say it doesn't count. That's not how this works, especially when he follows it up with an even better year.
4. Matthews won the Hart in 2021-2022, which was normal divisions.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

2 x $8.5, then re-up when Tavares is gone

 

[Dekes For Days]

I'm not sure how there's still confusion about this, but a shorter term deal would be a higher AAV. He'd be giving up 2 of his most valuable seasons.

 

[thusk]

Does Nylander's 40 goals count less than Meier's 40 goals? Does the "how" really matter? They all count the same on the scoresheet. For a player and his agent yes production does count and for them it does not matter how? End of the day every team value goals. Just go back a couple of days to hear Tre say, we got work to do, a lot of goals left us today.

Not sure I get your 40 g and 48 assists in 163 games.



Do we want to add a fourth guy with double digit AAV? Depends on who that guy is and when we are adding him.

I never say his goal or pts counting less, what i said its everything nylander bringing on a team are resume in those stats... not Meier

40 goal 48 assist its his stats at 5v5 last 2 season

 

[613Leafer]

I'd be looking to get my hands on Seth Jarvis in any Nylander scenario.

Roster as is, which assumes we re-sign Nylander as I don't think Treliving wants to risk him walking. Let's say that costs us 9.25M (despite what almost everyone thinks is reasonable, I just can't see him signing here under 9M).

Knies-Matthews-Marner
Bertuzzi-Tavares-Nylander
Jarnkrok-Kampf-Domi
Reaves-Holmberg-Lafferty

Rielly-Brodie
McCabe-Klingberg
Gio-Liljegren
Timmins

An alternative roster based on a Nylander + Liljegren for Pesce + Jarvis trade (let's assume we can re-sign Pesce at 5M, as he's better than Graves who just signed at 4.5M). This would immediately create about 3M in capspace, and going forward would maintain extra capspace based on the above numbers. Use that immediate 3M to sign Pius Suter as 3rd line C.

Knies-Matthews-Marner
Bertuzzi-Tavares-Jarvis (or Jarvis at C)
Jarnkrok-Suter-Domi
Reaves/Holmberg-Kampf-Lafferty

Rielly-Pesce
Brodie-Klingberg
McCabe-Timmins/Gio

Jarvis was a 2020 13th OA pick who has 79 points in 150 games and 18 points in 29 playoff games. He's small, but drives the net and can play C or W, which gives the benefit of moving Tavares to the wing.

Downgrade on the 2nd line, but upgrade on the 3rd line, 4th line, and every D pairing because it moves guys down the depth chart.

 

[robertocarlos]

Trade him to the Jets straight up for Hellebuyck or Chef 55.

What makes you say that and who does TOR get for Nylander?

where there's smoke...there's Nylander

I knew there was a camera secretly hidden behind every mirror.

 

[notDatsyuk]

This is more Dubas stupidity at work. We should already have 2 years left of Nylander after his contract expiry at 8.5 / year. His 2 big prime years at that. With those 2 prime years gone the contract after that will be manageable.

Nylanders prime years projection are 90-100+ points, 40+ goals. Idiot Dubas always playing cute unless its marner bending him over.

Not that I dispute the Dubas stupidity, but Nylander was only making 6.9, not 8.5.

 

[socko]

I see fair market value as about:

Nylander: $9
Marner: $10
Matthers $13

Which would have Marner actually taking a paycut, his last contract as an RFA was that ridiculous.

 

[KaN19]

2 x $8.5, then re-up when Tavares is gone

He's going to be asking for $12m in 2 years after seeing the cap go up 10%. Would rather give him $9.5m now and deal with a cap squeeze for one season.

 

[Gaberd2608]

I see fair market value as about:

Nylander: $9
Marner: $10
Matthers $13

Which would have Marner actually taking a paycut, his last contract as an RFA was that ridiculous.

What makes matthews worth 13 and marner only worth 10? I think the numbers are also correlated to the term.

Nylander at 9 is probably reasonable but are we taking 3 years or 6?

 

[socko]

Matthews is worth that if he's healthy. If he's not healthy, he's worth less.

I would have Rantanen as Marner's comp. Which is extremely generous as Rantanen is better IMO.

Matthews comps, again if heatlhy, would be MacKinnon and Draisaitl.

 

[Marshy]

I'm not sure how there's still confusion about this, but a shorter term deal would be a higher AAV. He'd be giving up 2 of his most valuable seasons.

Unless you're Auston I suppose. Took 5 years instead of 8 to keep the AAV down (or that's the narrative we were fed).

 

[notDatsyuk]

Agents and teams use other players as benchmarks, I'll use Pasta as a benchmark, he is in the East and plays similar conditions to Willie. Pasta is a RW, like Willie, has a career PPG pace of 1.04222973 points per game, he just recently signed a contract that pays him $11.25mil per. Willie is a 0.8253358925 points per game player, if you use points per game as your baseline and Pastas contract is a reasonable comparable, Willie should be around, $8,908,812.07 per year on his next deal.

The player will argue that the career point per game is weighted down by his early career and we should use more recent years, where he was more than a point per game over the last two years, the team will argue that two years is too small of a sample size and his career points per game is a fair measuring stick.

So if you believe the last two years is a reasonable measuring stick, he is absolutely worth 9mil +, if you think the last two years is too small of a sample size, less that 9 mil is reasonable.

Pastrnak plays on the top line with Marchand and Bergeron.

Nylander plays on the second line with slow Tavares and a rotating mess of third liners.

That alone is just about enough to explain the difference in career point totals.

 

[Woodman19]

You get either long term at a lower aav (more guaranteed money) or lower aav for less years (faster route to FA). The fact we have both high as and short term shows how stupid Dubas was for giving those contracts out.

 

[thusk]

Pastrnak plays on the top line with Marchand and Bergeron.

Nylander plays on the second line with slow Tavares and a rotating mess of third liners.

That alone is just about enough to explain the difference in career point totals.

Just last season

Pastrnak played 13,7% of the time with marchand and bergeron and probably over 70-80 % without any of 2. He had 34 goal and 27 assist at 5v5 1,72 goal/69 and 3,09 pts/60

Nylander played eith matthews most of the time this season with 22 goal 27 assist 1,14 goal/60 2,62 pts/60

Good try but no, pastrnak is just a better player than nylander and its not even close

 

[notDatsyuk]

I think they have to phase Tavares out of the top 6.
Just because he's overpaid doesn't mean he has to be overplayed.

Bertuzzi. Matthews. Nylander
Knies. Domi. Marner
Robertson. Tavares. Jarnkrok

 

[notbias]

Just last season

Pastrnak played 13,7% of the time with marchand and bergeron and probably over 70-80 % without any of 2. He had 34 goal and 27 assist at 5v5 1,72 goal/69 and 3,09 pts/60

Nylander played eith matthews most of the time this season with 22 goal 27 assist 1,14 goal/60 2,62 pts/60

Good try but no, pastrnak is just a better player than nylander and its not even close

Pastrnak played with Krejci and Zacha the most and their line got caved in, their goalie bailed them out.

Pastrnak is better, but let's not pretend he is driving play like crazy and dominating.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Meier going to the net, helping his team on forecheck to get the puck back, screening goalie... hes doing a lot of thing who will impavt the offensive game but not nevessairly giving you pts.

Pts 5v5 last 2 season before resigning
Gaudreau 37 goal 62 assist in 138 game 1.12 goal/60 2,99 pts/60

Huberdeau 30 goal 50 assist in 135 game 1,05 goal/60 and 2,79 pts/60

Meier 37 goal 45 assist in 133 game
1,07 goal/60 and 2,38 pts/60 in san jose

Forsberg 34 goal 26 assist in 208 game
1,38 goal/60, 2,43 pts/60

Fiala 35 goal 40 assist in 132 game
1,25 goal/60 and 2,68 pts/60

Nylander 40 goal 49bassist in 163 game
1,07 goal/60 and 2,37 pts/60

Nylander is the worst 5v5 comtribution of all those player, the fact he can produce on pp playing along side matthews, marner abd whatever , its what suppose to justify a salary over 10M?

7,5M-8,5M salary is not a discount, its nylander value

And how many of those were stuck on the second line with the corpse of Tavares and random third liners?

 

[thusk]

Pastrnak played with Krejci and Zacha the most and their line got scored on more than they scored.

Pastrnak is better, but let's not pretend he is driving play like crazy and dominating.

He played 35% of time with that line... they scored 36 goal and allowed 14 goal...so they was +22 together

 

[notbias]

He played 35% of time with that line... they scored 36 goal and allowed 14 goal...so they was +22 together

I misread the stats, they got out-chanced, I edited to reflect that.