Rumor: Nylander like Matthews unextended. Nothing to see here.

[PromisedLand]

“I don’t like the answer the comparables give, so I’m going invent my own system and pretend that reality doesn’t exist”

Sorry, every NHL executive, and stats person disagrees with your fantasy ideas

this is such a cop out. You fail to understand how contracts work.

what is the total amount Nylander is seeking on the long term deal? He has 3 options:

1) He re-signs with the leafs on the 8year term
2) He walks as a UFA and signs with another team with a max 7 year term
3) He gets traded to another team and can negotiate an 8 year term with them (or Leafs can do a sign and trade)

It is the total amount that matters to a player not the AAV. The AAV matters for the team to build a roster that is competitive while being cap compliant.

If you have trouble understanding this simple concept, I don't know what else to say to you.

I am a TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS fan; I will always speak/post with what helps MY TEAM; I have ZERO emotional attachment to the players or the gm or the coach. My emotional attachment is to the TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

 

[thusk]

Not the way Leafs have sucked. Only one team you can think of is Caps if at all

You can find plenty of examples in the NHL where teams didn’t have to wait eons to win at least 2 rounds too.

Colorado do you think it was better after mackinnon... they was so trash than they was unable to just reach the playoff, selling their player in oreilly/ duchene and whatever... still being bad for year to finally draft again im top 4 and be extremely lucky to draft a d who would become the best d of next decade...

Florida how many season they need to reach the final?

Stl how many year do you think they need to slowly build that championship team?

Can we consider edmonton like having more playoff succes?

few team find a way to get early succes in playoff but big majority of team dont...

 

[PromisedLand]

Colorado do you think it was better after mackinnon... they was so trash than they was unable to just reach the playoff, selling their player in oreilly/ duchene and whatever... still being bad for year to finally draft again im top 4 and be extremely lucky to draft a d who would become the best d of next decade...

Florida how many season they need to reach the final?

Stl how many year do you think they need to slowly build that championship team?

Can we consider edmonton like having more playoff succes?

few team find a way to get early succes in playoff but big majority of team dont...

what about the pens, hawks, kings, bolts? do they not count because it doesn't fit the narrative?

Mack just signed a 12.6 AAV contract for 8 years? Is Matthews willing to do the same? It is amazing that you guys only talk about teams that were not successful. Sakic realized ROR+Duchene are not working and he changed the outlook of the roster. Thats called a freakin FORESIGHT that was lacking in the prior Leafs management of the bullshit trash that was "we can and we will" fiasco.


Florida management was trash and more importantly they were not married to any "coach" that did not get them results like Leafs with keefe are. Zito became GM of the panthers in 2020 and turned the team around getting rid of Huberdeau+Weegar and changing the outlook of the team.

Treliving has the same opportunity now to change the BS that was the Dubas era hockey. And to use the old phraseology...

"Treliving should make the changes. Tre can and Tre Will (or definitely should)"

No more dubas era trash. Period!

 

[hullsy47]

what about the pens, hawks, kings, bolts? do they not count because it doesn't fit the narrative?

Mack just signed a 12.6 AAV contract for 8 years? Is Matthews willing to do the same? It is amazing that you guys only talk about teams that were not successful. Sakic realized ROR+Duchene are not working and he changed the outlook of the roster. Thats called a freakin FORESIGHT that was lacking in the prior Leafs management of the bullshit trash that was "we can and we will" fiasco.


Florida management was trash and more importantly they were not married to any "coach" that did not get them results like Leafs with keefe are. Zito became GM of the panthers in 2020 and turned the team around getting rid of Huberdeau+Weegar and changing the outlook of the team.

Treliving has the same opportunity now to change the BS that was the Dubas era hockey. And to use the old phraseology...

"Treliving should make the changes. Tre can and Tre Will (or definitely should)"

No more dubas era trash. Period!

Give Nylander a deadline

 

[A1LeafNation]

Give Nylander a deadline

Or what?

 

[PromisedLand]

Give Nylander a deadline

Since Nylander is going to be a UFA what we need to find out is what matters most to Nylander (or Matthews/Marner for that matter).

Playing for Toronto Vs More money elsewhere (in total). If it is money that matters to Nylander then you work on a trade.

As a GM Tre should try to work out what is the max in total Nylander could get as a UFA in total dollars.

Scenarios (max 7 year term if willy walks as a UFA).

80 million on 7 year is about 11.5 AAV; 10 AAV on 8 year term
70 million on 7 year is about 10 AAV; 8.75 AAV on 8 year term
60 million on 7 year is about 8.6 AAV; 7.5 AAV on 8 year term

Then as a GM he should take a calculated risk i.e. given the 7 year term what is the max Nylander will be offered if he walked as a UFA.

Me personally I do not see anyone offering Nylander 11.5 AAV and 10 AAV; this means Leafs can try and leverage their position that CBA allows them.

The counter I would do is 70 million on 8 year term 8.8 AAV (at MAX), front loaded contract, 80% to 90% is signing bonuses i.e. completely buyout proof contract. Protects Nylander from getting Matt Duchene treatment in the future as most of the money is guaranteed for Nylander in case of a buyout.

70 million on 8 year term is the MAX I would offer Nylander as a GM. if he is not willing to sign that then Leafs gotta give permission to his agent to talk to other teams who will be willing to pay him more than 70 million dollars and work out a trade.

Leafs do have leverage here; Leafs can force Nylander to walk as UFA and sign at max a 7 year for a long term deal screwing up another team's AAV. Treliving should most definitely use that leverage and not bend over.

 

[thusk]

what about the pens, hawks, kings, bolts? do they not count because it doesn't fit the narrative?

Mack just signed a 12.6 AAV contract for 8 years? Is Matthews willing to do the same? It is amazing that you guys only talk about teams that were not successful. Sakic realized ROR+Duchene are not working and he changed the outlook of the roster. Thats called a freakin FORESIGHT that was lacking in the prior Leafs management of the bullshit trash that was "we can and we will" fiasco.


Florida management was trash and more importantly they were not married to any "coach" that did not get them results like Leafs with keefe are. Zito became GM of the panthers in 2020 and turned the team around getting rid of Huberdeau+Weegar and changing the outlook of the team.

Treliving has the same opportunity now to change the BS that was the Dubas era hockey. And to use the old phraseology...

"Treliving should make the changes. Tre can and Tre Will (or definitely should)"

No more dubas era trash. Period!

Some few what i said... now go on the other side and count the number of team who didn't had playoff succes... i guarantee you this number will be higher than 4... sure focusing on few exception to compare yourself, that will look bad for sure

 

[WTFMAN99]

Since Nylander is going to be a UFA what we need to find out is what matters most to Nylander (or Matthews/Marner for that matter).

Playing for Toronto Vs More money elsewhere (in total). If it is money that matters to Nylander then you work on a trade.

As a GM Tre should try to work out what is the max in total Nylander could get as a UFA in total dollars.

Scenarios (max 7 year term if willy walks as a UFA).

80 million on 7 year is about 11.5 AAV; 10 AAV on 8 year term
70 million on 7 year is about 10 AAV; 8.75 AAV on 8 year term
60 million on 7 year is about 8.6 AAV; 7.5 AAV on 8 year term

Then as a GM he should take a calculated risk i.e. given the 7 year term what is the max Nylander will be offered if he walked as a UFA.

Me personally I do not see anyone offering Nylander 11.5 AAV and 10 AAV; this means Leafs can try and leverage their position that CBA allows them.

The counter I would do is 70 million on 8 year term 8.8 AAV (at MAX), front loaded contract, 80% to 90% is signing bonuses i.e. completely buyout proof contract. Protects Nylander from getting Matt Duchene treatment in the future as most of the money is guaranteed for Nylander in case of a buyout.

70 million on 8 year term is the MAX I would offer Nylander as a GM. if he is not willing to sign that then Leafs gotta give permission to his agent to talk to other teams who will be willing to pay him more than 70 million dollars and work out a trade.

Leafs do have leverage here; Leafs can force Nylander to walk as UFA and sign at max a 7 year for a long term deal screwing up another team's AAV. Treliving should most definitely use that leverage and not bend over.

It's also unlikely they'll be worth their AAV at 32-33 years old so...

We saw Debrincat just pull 7.875M x 4 so if Nylander wants 8M x 4 years...okay sure.

 

[leafan11]

Since Nylander is going to be a UFA what we need to find out is what matters most to Nylander (or Matthews/Marner for that matter).

Playing for Toronto Vs More money elsewhere (in total). If it is money that matters to Nylander then you work on a trade.

As a GM Tre should try to work out what is the max in total Nylander could get as a UFA in total dollars.

Scenarios (max 7 year term if willy walks as a UFA).

80 million on 7 year is about 11.5 AAV; 10 AAV on 8 year term
70 million on 7 year is about 10 AAV; 8.75 AAV on 8 year term
60 million on 7 year is about 8.6 AAV; 7.5 AAV on 8 year term

Then as a GM he should take a calculated risk i.e. given the 7 year term what is the max Nylander will be offered if he walked as a UFA.

Me personally I do not see anyone offering Nylander 11.5 AAV and 10 AAV; this means Leafs can try and leverage their position that CBA allows them.

The counter I would do is 70 million on 8 year term 8.8 AAV (at MAX), front loaded contract, 80% to 90% is signing bonuses i.e. completely buyout proof contract. Protects Nylander from getting Matt Duchene treatment in the future as most of the money is guaranteed for Nylander in case of a buyout.

70 million on 8 year term is the MAX I would offer Nylander as a GM. if he is not willing to sign that then Leafs gotta give permission to his agent to talk to other teams who will be willing to pay him more than 70 million dollars and work out a trade.

Leafs do have leverage here; Leafs can force Nylander to walk as UFA and sign at max a 7 year for a long term deal screwing up another team's AAV. Treliving should most definitely use that leverage and not bend over.

This is exactly what I’m saying. I really don’t think Nylander and his Agent are delusional , if posters like us on Hfboards know the most $$$ he can get is from the Leafs on a 8 year deal around 8.75 , you gotta think him and his Agent know it as well.

 

[mydnyte]

But there has to be some gradual progress. The so called "core4" gets shut down in the playoffs. There is 7 years worth of evidence.

There is faith and then there is blind faith. I would say that given how the core 4 has performed blind faith in them while giving them ridiculous AAV while diminishing our ability to bolster the roster with quality depth is not a good strategy.



its been 7 years of us waiting for the "core" to take it to another level. The only another level i see with this core is their next level contract negotiations not on ice impact.

We need quality depth to counter the ineptitude of the so called core4 to put the team on their back. The quality depth is only possible if we don't overpay the core pieces.

I'm still hoping Keefe get fired ...the core-4 play the coach's system, and he just gets outmatched constantly.
when the other team is double teaming Matthews, you need someone to take that pressure off Matthews, OR, take advantage of that double team, but, Keefe keeps running the same style and just mix-matching the lines so no player has any idea where they should be or go on the ice, then they try to do things individually, and thats usually a guarantied fail.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

when the new CBA trashes the hard cap

Every team in the league plays under a hard cap* but not every team has the same hideous level of cap imbalance and payroll structure.



*I know about all the tax bullshit, we can't blame the NHL for our failures in this regard

 

[rocketman588]

when the new CBA trashes the hard cap

There's a better chance the owners get 60/40 then the hard cap is trashed. Which is also why we can't overpay these guys

 

[mydnyte]

We know that ain't happening

So the Leafs spent themselves into Cap Hell through previous poor management decisions and now they have to get themselves back out.

All things considered (including NMC limitations) you re-sign Matthews but attempt to hold him in check, you trade Nylander to build up the team depth as this years moves.. Then you play hardball with Marner keeping his salary close to current with perhaps only a small raise and you cut JT current contract in 1/2 on a short term extension.

When the dust settles you have Matthews at ~$13 mil, Marner @ $11.5 mil, JT and $5.5 mil and Nylander gone in trade. Leafs end up with only 2 double digit players as opposed to paying Willy $10 mil and having 4 of the top 16 highest paid skaters in the league.

On the bright side, all the top teams are in cap hell, and many in cap hell with lesser player than we have.

25-26 when JT's contract expires will be one of the best (potentially) UFA classes ever. ...there will be some serious big game hunting if any of the top dogs want to test the market, and by 25-26 the cap is rumored to have gone up a ton too.

hardest part will be resigning our guys to tolerable deals and upgrading our underwhelming D
I dont see Nylander getting resigned unless we dump both Murray and Brodie
and Nylander could have handcuffed the team with his 10 team NTC
he can easily have picked the 10 most logical teams that he could be dealt to on his list
Arizona (have space and suck)
Chicago (have space and suck)
Anaheim (have space and suck)
Carolina (Pesce)
Winnipeg (fire sale)
Phil (fire sale)
St Louis (rumored to want to move a D)
San Jose (Karlsson)
Calgary (logical trade partner)
NYI (have D need O)
that would be my 10 team list if i didnt want to be dealt.

 

[PromisedLand]

It's also unlikely they'll be worth their AAV at 32-33 years old so...

We saw Debrincat just pull 7.875M x 4 so if Nylander wants 8M x 4 years...okay sure.

Me personally would be looking for a long term deal and guaranteed money. I wouldn't risk any injury just to get paid more "IF" the cap goes up in the future.

But sure if they want to do a short term deal; 8 AAV for 4 years is fine with me

 

[PromisedLand]

This is exactly what I’m saying. I really don’t think Nylander and his Agent are delusional , if posters like us on Hfboards know the most $$$ he can get is from the Leafs on a 8 year deal around 8.75 , you gotta think him and his Agent know it as well.

Their delusions are fed by stupidity of twitter accounts that profess to know either the "math" or "negotiations" and continue to spew BS when it comes to statistical measures like xGF% crap and then this AAV crap

I am glad Tre isn't biting on the crap that is out there.

I am almost positive that his agent is fully aware of the situation; Gaudreau signed a 7 year deal (same agent btw); afterall the ball in Willy's court. Either Willy plays ball with us or he is some other team's headache

 

[Pengu]

Nylander signed 1st the last time and then watched as the other 2 took 4-5 million more in AAV. And then surprise! turned out to be the only value contract. There is NO way he'll do that again and sign for 8-9 million only to watch the other 2 sign for 5-6 million more and then watch his contract turn into the value contract in a few years when the cap is at 95 million. He's less than 1 year from getting PAID and he has ALL the leverage this time with UFA status looming. What are management threaten him with? "If you do not sign we'll trade you to a team not on your list! Oh, you won't sign any extention in a deal as you want to test the UFA market when the cap skyrockets next summer?
But, but then we will get no value in return!"

 

[PromisedLand]

I'm still hoping Keefe get fired ...the core-4 play the coach's system, and he just gets outmatched constantly.
when the other team is double teaming Matthews, you need someone to take that pressure off Matthews, OR, take advantage of that double team, but, Keefe keeps running the same style and just mix-matching the lines so no player has any idea where they should be or go on the ice, then they try to do things individually, and thats usually a guarantied fail.

Here is something which was werid last playoffs. Against the bolts Matthews-Marner were crapping the bed together; he broke them to create match up issues and Leafs found a way to win.

Against Florida he did not even ONCE break Matthews-Marner duo while Leafs continued to get crapped on.

Keefe actually got outcoached against the bolts; Treliving basically admitted that not directly but he said something along the lines of "they didn't play as well against the bolts" forget whether it was on TSN overdrive or with Kypper on sportsnet

The only conclusion I can draw is either Keefe is a moron and a JOKE of a coach; or the inmates run the asylum i.e. Keefe's hands are tied (ex: takesy backsy he did on his comments).

 

[Fogelhund]

If Marner was on his 8 year $8.5 mil ask deal right now then Willy would not be asking for $10.5 mil.

False, null, void.

 

[Mess]

That's really where this mess became irreversible.
I'd say that's where the mess began but that happened the day Shanahan promoted Dubas.

Agree 100%.

If Marner was currently making his legit $8.5 mil, and Nylander currently on his 6 year / $45 mil = $7.5 mil AAV there would have only been a $1 mil difference in AAV and a reasonable case because of Marner's PK and defensive work and slightly higher point production that these 2 contracts are aligned. No hard feelings by Willy,

However since the gap is a ridiculous +$4 mil due to GM incompetence of the past, then Nylander rightfully has grounds to ask for his +$10 mil also if that is the going rate to be a PPG player in Toronto.

 

[Racer88]

Colorado do you think it was better after mackinnon... they was so trash than they was unable to just reach the playoff, selling their player in oreilly/ duchene and whatever... still being bad for year to finally draft again im top 4 and be extremely lucky to draft a d who would become the best d of next decade...

Florida how many season they need to reach the final?

Stl how many year do you think they need to slowly build that championship team?

Can we consider edmonton like having more playoff succes?

few team find a way to get early succes in playoff but big majority of team dont...

Early success, that’s hilarious. We are about 56 years and waiting

 

[Mess]

False, null, void.

If Marner was on the contract he asked for but was turned down by Dubas of $8.5 mil, you still think Willy who stats and usage do not match Marner would still believe he is worth +$2 mil more than Mitch?

What GM would give him that when a fellow teammate with a higher impact was making less internally?

Perhaps you could make the reasonable argument that since Willy is now up first to the re-signing trough, that he would be asking for $8.8 mil (the Treliving offer and Timo Meiers deal) to bump the internal scale slightly, based of increasing cap ceiling and timing of signing.

Our new GM Treliving (according rumoured #'s leaked) appears to be acting responsibly, trying to correct the Leafs busted internal over-payment salary scale, and likely using what contracts should be (ie Marner) as opposed to what they actually are. IMO

Willy wanting +$10 mil because his other 3 core linemates all make > $10 mil more than him, is not dealing with market comparable contracts its simply based on busted internal salary structure.

 

[PromisedLand]

Nylander signed 1st the last time and then watched as the other 2 took 4-5 million more in AAV. And then surprise! turned out to be the only value contract. There is NO way he'll do that again and sign for 8-9 million only to watch the other 2 sign for 5-6 million more and then watch his contract turn into the value contract in a few years when the cap is at 95 million. He's less than 1 year from getting PAID and he has ALL the leverage this time with UFA status looming. What are management threaten him with? "If you do not sign we'll trade you to a team not on your list! Oh, you won't sign any extention in a deal as you want to test the UFA market when the cap skyrockets next summer?
But, but then we will get no value in return!"

Personally I would have traded Marner long time ago. His game will never translate well in playoffs. The guys plays like a wuss and makes too many dumbheaded mistakes that lead to goal against especially with the "fancy BS"

But of course that ship has sailed with July 1st and the NTC/NMC now kicked in . Shanahan dropped the ball big time the moment he picked dubas as a gm after doing the right things i.e. scorched earth, and rebuild route.

Would have preferred Leafs get 4 first round picks and marner get an offersheet than what transpired.

What a wasted opportunity

 

[Fogelhund]

If Marner was on the contract he asked for but was turned down by Dubas of $8.5 mil, you still think Willy who stats and usage do not match Marner would still believe he is worth +$2 mil more than Mitch?

What GM would give him that when a fellow teammate with a higher impact was making less internally?

Perhaps you could make the reasonable argument that since Willy is now up first to the re-signing trough, that he would be asking for $8.8 mil (the Treliving offer and Timo Meiers deal) to bump the internal scale slightly, based on increasing cap ceiling and timing of signing.

Our new GM Treliving (according rumoured #'s leaked) appears to be acting responsibly, trying to correct the Leafs busted internal over-payment salary scale, and likely using what contracts should be (ie Marner) as opposed to what they actually are. IMO

Willy wanting +$10 mil because his other 3 core linemates all make > $10 mil more than him, is not dealing with market comparable contracts its simply based on busted internal salary structure.

Comparables around the league are still comparables. No player or agent only sees one team. Any and all players would be compared to all players, and like it or not… that’s where it’s at.

 

[keonsbitterness]

We need to make radical changes.

That ship has sailed. We can't.

There's a better chance the owners get 60/40 then the hard cap is trashed. Which is also why we can't overpay these guys

MLSE should push to have a luxury tax baked into the next CBA. Richer teams could spend more and poorer teams could make more revenue.

 

[mydnyte]

Here is something which was werid last playoffs. Against the bolts Matthews-Marner were crapping the bed together; he broke them to create match up issues and Leafs found a way to win.

Against Florida he did not even ONCE break Matthews-Marner duo while Leafs continued to get crapped on.

Keefe actually got outcoached against the bolts; Treliving basically admitted that not directly but he said something along the lines of "they didn't play as well against the bolts" forget whether it was on TSN overdrive or with Kypper on sportsnet

The only conclusion I can draw is either Keefe is a moron and a JOKE of a coach; or the inmates run the asylum i.e. Keefe's hands are tied (ex: takesy backsy he did on his comments).

I'm more in line with this one ...Matthews and Marner are only good together if/when they have an actual threat on the other side.
As far as an opposing coach goes, you stick a guy on Matthews with a double team ready, and one on Marner... the off winger is a non-threat so they get a free ride, and then Marner is pretty much forced to pass off to the lesser player, or a turnover.
Its not hard really, and the other way they stopped them was as soon as the other team had possession, they would immediately go to a down low cycle game because our Defense couldnt win back the puck, ever ...or they got a rush chance because our defense had zero brain as far as when to pinch or stay back.
hockey isnt hard, unless coaches overthink things and dont use common sense
the 'best' and most dominant lines in hockey arent a 2 player combos, they are a stacked 3 player line.
At least now we have the potential to have our top 2 lines 'stacked'
Domi - Matthews - Nylander
Bert - Tavares - Marner
I know most people pencil in Bert on the top line but then you would need to move Marner up, as Domi is a playmaker more than a scorer, but then the 2nd line would be very weak defensively
I'd also give this a try if you wanted to overload line 1
Tavares - Matthews - Marner
Bert - Domi - Nylander